Bitcoin has climbed back above $93,000 after enduring days of intense selling pressure, heightened volatility, and widespread market uncertainty. The recovery marks a significant shift in sentiment, but according to a new report from CryptoQuant, one signal stands out as the primary driver behind the rebound: institutional capital is quietly flowing back into the market.

The analysis highlights a key metric— the Coinbase Premium Index, long regarded as a reliable proxy for US institutional demand. Throughout November’s steep correction, the premium plunged deep into negative territory, revealing a stark imbalance: US spot buyers were far weaker than their offshore counterparts.

During this phase, as Bitcoin slid below $90,000, the sharp drop in the premium reflected clear risk-off positioning among US-regulated investors, many of whom stepped back or took profits amid rising macro uncertainty.

Now, with Bitcoin recovering key levels, the data shows early signs of renewed accumulation from US-based institutions. This subtle but meaningful shift suggests that the most conservative segment of the market—professional and regulated capital—may be positioning again after the correction. If this trend continues, the rebound above $93K could evolve into a much broader shift in market structure.

Institutional Catalysts Drive Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Higher

According to the CryptoQuant report, the narrative has shifted decisively. The Coinbase Premium Index has climbed back into positive territory, signaling renewed accumulation from US-based institutional and regulated investors. This shift coincides with a wave of major developments reshaping the global investment landscape.

Most notably, Charles Schwab, a $12 trillion asset manager, announced plans to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in early 2026. This follows Vanguard’s market-moving reversal that opened access to spot crypto ETFs for more than 50 million conservative investors. These firms are not speculative players—they are the backbone of American retirement wealth.

At the same time, a powerful but less publicized catalyst is emerging overseas: Japan is moving toward formal approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Given the size of Japanese investment trusts, pension-linked products, and retail participation, early adoption could inject $3–10 billion of fresh demand. While no single region drives Bitcoin’s valuation alone, combined flows from the US, Europe, and Japan could easily deliver a mid-single-digit percentage uplift to BTC in the early phases of this expansion.

The broader takeaway is unmistakable: Bitcoin is transitioning from a niche risk asset into a globally standardized investment product. The return of a positive Coinbase Premium may be the market’s earliest confirmation that institutions—especially the most conservative ones—are positioning ahead of 2026.

Weekly Structure Shows Early Signs of Recovery

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a decisive rebound, with price pushing back above $93,000 after weeks of aggressive selling pressure. The recent wick down toward the green 100-week moving average (100W MA) marked a key moment: buyers stepped in precisely at long-term dynamic support, preventing a deeper breakdown toward the $80,000–$82,000 region.

This reaction confirms that long-term holders and institutional buyers are protecting this level, aligning with the recent return of positive signals from the Coinbase Premium Index.

Despite the rebound, the chart still shows Bitcoin facing overhead resistance. The 50-week MA sits just above the price, creating a supply zone between $97,000 and $102,000. This has historically acted as a trend-determining range; reclaiming it would shift momentum decisively back to the bulls. Until then, the market remains in a mid-cycle consolidation.

Volume behavior also supports the recovery narrative. The huge sell-volume spikes seen in November marked capitulation-like behavior, which often precedes trend reversals. The recent green weekly candle forming on rising buy volume suggests that demand is returning, aligning with improving liquidity conditions on major US and global exchanges.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

A new CryptoQuant report from XWIN Research Japan reveals that the sharp +6% Bitcoin rally on December 2–3, 2025 was triggered by a seismic shift in traditional finance: Vanguard’s unexpected policy reversal.

The $11 trillion asset manager—long known for its conservative stance—opened its platform to spot ETFs for BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL, instantly giving more than 50 million investors access to crypto products. The move marks one of the most significant steps toward mainstream adoption in the industry’s history.

The catalyst behind this reversal was the appointment of Salim Ramji, Vanguard’s new CEO and a former BlackRock executive who played a key role in launching the IBIT ETF. His leadership signaled a dramatic change in direction, and the market responded immediately.

Once US markets opened, Bitcoin surged 6% in a single move, while IBIT surpassed $1 billion in trading volume within the first 30 minutes. Massive inflows from retail and retirement accounts followed, with Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noting that “a large wave of Vanguard clients may have moved all at once.”

Institutional Demand Builds as Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Recovers

XWIN Research Japan notes that, despite the recent surge, the Coinbase Premium Index remains in negative territory, showing that US prices still sit slightly below global averages. Even so, the report highlights a clear improvement in US spot buying pressure, signaling that demand is slowly returning.

If the premium rises back to zero or positive territory, the market may begin to price in what XWIN calls the “next wave” — a phase that could propel Bitcoin toward the $100K range as institutional flows strengthen.

This shift is happening just as Vanguard makes its historic entrance into the crypto market. XWIN emphasizes that this is not a short-term catalyst. Vanguard manages $11 trillion, and even a tiny allocation — just 0.5% of assets flowing into crypto ETFs — would represent $55 billion in new capital. That figure alone exceeds the entire first-year inflow from the 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF cycle.

With the “final giant” of traditional finance now participating, the long-term structure of Bitcoin demand is changing. Vanguard’s move signals the beginning of a genuine institutional adoption phase, where inflows can scale far beyond anything seen in previous cycles, potentially redefining Bitcoin’s upper price boundaries.

Price Rebounds From Weekly Support but Faces Major Resistance

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a strong rebound from the $84,000–$86,000 support zone, an area that aligns closely with the 100-week SMA. This level acted as a critical pivot during previous corrections, and once again buyers stepped in aggressively, forming a clear bullish reaction. The long lower wick from last week’s candle confirms strong demand, with BTC now trading back above $93,000.

However, despite the rebound, the broader structure remains cautious. Bitcoin still trades below the 50-week SMA, which has begun to flatten near the $102,000–$103,000 region. This moving average now acts as a major resistance level and the next key test for bulls. A weekly close above it would mark a meaningful shift in momentum and signal that BTC may be ready to resume its broader uptrend.

If BTC continues to hold above the 100-week SMA and pushes toward the 50-week SMA, the market could enter a consolidation phase that sets the stage for a stronger upside move. Failure to reclaim $102K, however, risks renewed selling pressure and a potential retest of the $86K region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com