Ethereum has fallen below the $2,800 mark after a sharp and sudden decline, deepening panic across the market and reinforcing the sense that bulls have lost control. The recent drop has pushed investors into defensive mode, with some analysts now openly discussing the possibility of a broader bear market emerging. Selling pressure has intensified across spot and derivatives markets, and volatility continues to rise as traders struggle to identify a reliable support zone.

A new CryptoQuant report by Darkfost highlights one of the most alarming developments: Ethereum’s open interest on Binance has been steadily collapsing for more than three months. After reaching an all-time high of $12.6 billion on August 22, open interest has now been cut in half. Nearly $6.4 billion in derivative positions have evaporated, bringing ETH’s open interest down to $6.2 billion, a steep 51% decline.

While this appears to be an extraordinary contraction, Darkfost notes that open interest has only just slipped below the previous all-time high of $7.7 billion. This underscores how speculative and overstretched the 2025 derivatives market had become — and suggests that Ethereum may be undergoing a much deeper structural reset than most expected.

Speculation Unwinds Across Exchanges as Ethereum Enters Deep Reset Phase

Darkfost emphasizes that 2025 has been the most speculative phase in Ethereum’s history, fueled by aggressive leverage, rapid inflows, and a market structure that proved far less solid — and far less sustainable — than it appeared during the rally. The collapse in open interest on Binance is only part of the story.

The same pattern is unfolding across major derivatives platforms, revealing a broader structural unwind rather than an exchange-specific phenomenon.

On Gate.io, ETH open interest has fallen from $5.2 billion to $3.5 billion. On Bybit, the drop is even more severe, plunging from $6.1 billion to $2.3 billion. This synchronized contraction shows how aggressively speculative positions have been flushed out. Meanwhile, the ongoing correction has dragged Ethereum’s price from $4,830 to $2,800, marking a steep 43% decline from the highs.

This widespread reduction in leverage suggests the market is undergoing a deeper reset than typical corrections. Investors are not rushing to re-enter positions, especially as liquidations continue to stack up across exchanges.

While shrinking open interest weighs on short-term momentum and sentiment, Darkfost notes that such aggressive deleveraging may ultimately help rebuild a healthier market foundation — one capable of supporting a durable bottom for ETH.

ETH Loses Key Trend Support as 3-Day Structure Turns Fully Bearish

Ethereum’s 3-day chart shows a decisive breakdown in structure, with price now firmly below the 50 SMA, 100 SMA, and 200 SMA for the first time since late 2024. The rejection from the $3,600–$3,800 region triggered a strong impulse to the downside, sending ETH directly through all major moving averages and confirming a shift toward a higher-timeframe downtrend. The current trading zone around $2,800 reflects a critical test of former support, but momentum remains weak.

The 50 SMA has now crossed below the 100 SMA, while both are beginning to converge downward toward the 200 SMA — a configuration that typically precedes sustained corrections. Volume has increased on red candles, showing that sellers remain dominant, and there is little evidence of aggressive dip-buying. The most recent candle wick toward $2,700 highlights vulnerability rather than strength, suggesting buyers are hesitant to defend this level with conviction.

ETH is also forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, further confirming bearish market structure. If $2,750 breaks cleanly, the next significant liquidity zones sit near $2,550 and $2,300, where prior consolidations developed earlier in the cycle.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Ethereum Open Interest has shot up by more than 4% following the sharp move down in the cryptocurrency’s price.

Ethereum Has Seen A Pullback Over The Past Day

The cryptocurrency sector as a whole has witnessed a plunge to kick off the new month, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both being down by more than 5% over the last 24 hours. ETH is back in the low $2,800 levels, having essentially retraced the recovery that it had made during the last week of November.

The sudden price decline has unleashed a wave of liquidations on the derivatives exchanges, leading to $158 million in Ethereum-related contracts being flushed. Of these, $140 million of the liquidations involved long positions alone.

Below is a heatmap from CoinGlass that breaks down the liquidation numbers related to the various digital asset symbols.

Interestingly, while notable liquidations have occurred, derivatives investors still haven’t become discouraged.

ETH Open Interest Has Gone Up Since The Dip

As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the Ethereum Open Interest has witnessed a sharp jump following the price decline. The “Open Interest” here refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of positions related to ETH that are currently open on all centralized derivatives platforms.

Here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in this metric over the past couple of days:

As displayed in the above graph, the Ethereum Open Interest initially collapsed alongside the price drop as long positions suffered forceful closures. As ETH’s bearish momentum tapered off and the price settled into a sideways rhythm, however, the metric saw a gradual reversal in direction, indicating that speculators have started opening up fresh positions.

Since the dip, the ETH Open Interest has gone up by almost $654 million, equivalent to an increase of 4.3%. “Looks like the gamblers are back for another round,” noted the analyst.

Historically, a high value on the metric has generally been something that has led to volatility for the cryptocurrency. This is because an extreme amount of positions implies the presence of a high amount of leverage in the sector. In these conditions, any sharp swing in the asset can induce a large number of liquidations in the market. These liquidations only feed back into the price move that caused them, making it more intense.

An example of this pattern was already seen during the past day. With the Ethereum Open Interest now rising again, it remains to be seen whether more volatility will follow.

Ethereum presently trades around $3,000 following a broader crypto market rebound in the last week. During this time, the market’s largest altcoin gained by 7.22%, providing a much-needed relief after an extended correction that dominated the majority of the last two months. As price stabilizes, crypto analytics platform XWIN Research Japan shares a forward-looking assessment of Ethereum’s outlook, especially considering developments in the futures market.

Ethereum Bulls Buy The Dip After Weak Position Exits

Amid the widespread correction of the crypto market in Q4 2025, Ethereum’s prices crashed from $4,700 to as low as $2,900, representing a 38% price decline. XWIN Research Japan reports this price fall coincided with certain relevant developments in the futures market.

In particular, Ethereum’s open interest across all exchanges dropped from $21 billion to around $17 billion in late November, as overleveraged long positions were closed down, forcing traders to open new positions with moderate leverage size. Meanwhile, funding rates stayed positive but declined to around 0.002, meaning that the dominant bullish sentiment from mid-2025 greatly reduced.

Looking at on-chain data, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is at 1.27, while Binance data shows it to be around 1.0, both values indicating Ethereum is in a neutral to fair value zone, suggesting a period of stability before the next major trend emerges. Meanwhile, the recent market recovery kick-started after ETH retested the realized price of whale addresses, indicating that large market players are bolstering their holdings. 

XWIN Research Japan supports this theory, noting that Ethereum Treasury BitMine has boosted its market holdings to 3.63 million ETH. Additionally, a BlackRock client recently acquired tens of millions of dollars’ worth of ETH, further reinforcing the strength of current market demand. However, despite this robust market demand, ETH Spot ETF net outflows for November hit $1.42 billion, indicating there is significant selling pressure in the market.

Ethereum Market Outlook

At the time of writing, Ethereum trades at $3,003, reflecting a 0.22% loss in the past day. Despite its gains in the last week, the altcoin is still down by 22.34% over the last month, suggesting the majority of short-term holders are in losses.

XWIN Research Japan explains that although the overleveraged position has been cleared out with market whales now ramping up their holding, Ethereum remains in a “bottom-building phase”.  Therefore, investors should still anticipate a “choppy, sell-on-rally” price action in the short term. The analysts predict a major trend reversal with time as the current price area becomes increasingly attractive to investors for massive accumulation opportunities.