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EXPERT Q&A – After Friday’s meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, former CIA senior officer and 6-time station chief Ralph Goff breaks down how each leader worked to “case officer” the other and ultimately, who walked away with a strategic advantage, despite no deal being reached. (Our transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity.)

The Cipher Brief: What was your general assessment of the pros and cons of the meeting between the two leaders in Alaska?

Goff: The summit wasn't the disaster that some feared it would be in Europe or in Kyiv - the capitals where people were waiting anxiously to see what happened. Nothing was really given away (in terms of territory), but it wasn't a success either because we didn't hear details of a follow-on meeting. Remember that President Trump was keen to have a follow-up meeting with President Putin and President Zelensky and himself.

I think in terms of winners and losers, I think on this one, Putin came out slightly ahead. For instance, there was no mention of any intensification of harsher sanctions being imposed on Russia, which is something that Putin, I'm sure, was desperate to avoid.

President Trump mentioned seeking a comprehensive peace agreement as opposed to an immediate ceasefire followed by talks, which is what the Europeans have been pushing for and Kyiv as well. They want an immediate ceasefire and then to engage in talks without any agreements yet in place. Putin is seeking peace talks while he continues to eat away at territory in Ukraine and continues to bomb their cities. As for that, it's maybe not a green light for further aggression, but he definitely didn’t get a red light.

I think also there was a lot of bad imagery. Having a red carpet there to welcome the Russian president – I get that it’s protocol - but I think things like a red carpet could have been skipped by the U.S. side. It gives Putin a boost with his domestic constituency. He was invited to the United States, so that will play well back home and may not play well in other capitals. There was a lot of criticism about Putin's status as a war criminal and he still gets to travel to the U.S.? I mean, that's kind of an empty argument but nonetheless, it is an argument that has traction in some capitals.

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The Cipher Brief: There's a lot of concern about how the president is perceiving Putin – whether it’s as a friend or as someone who brutally launched this war in Ukraine. As someone with has experience in understanding how to manipulate other people to get them to do what you want them to do - which was basically your job at CIA – do you see those elements at play or is this just a bunch of talk by critics of President Trump?

Goff: There is some of that and Putin is a former KGB case officer and he is trying to use some of those skills. I don't think he's a very gifted case officer. I don't think he was actually really successful in the KGB. He was best known to be an obscure colonel somewhere in East Germany, but he is trying to manipulate the president. I think he's failing. And I think what we're seeing is Donald Trump trying to be a case officer as well. He's using flattery and he's controlling Putin and trying to get this guy to a deal right so he's not going to [verbally] bludgeon his way toward a deal although he does do that when Putin's not around. President Trump does have a habit of talking tough when he's with European allies or at some of his press conferences here in the United States - so there's a bit of case officering going on - on both sides and I would say that neither one of them is really being successful because it's pretty transparent on both sides.

The Cipher Brief: With Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky planning to meet with the President at the White House, what would be the best case scenario in your mind?

Goff: The best-case scenario, and this is based on the realities of the conflict itself, is to freeze in place. Russia keeps the territories wherever there is a Russian boot. Putin seems to be aiming to have the geographical boundaries of territories which are not in Russian control at present and that's something that Zelensky cannot agree to as that would be political suicide for him. And the Ukrainians fought and died to hold the lines where they're at so giving up territory that you fought over without having to is a nonstarter, I think, for them. But, you know, in the end, there is going to be a high cost of territory for Ukraine. That's just the reality. And they know that.

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The Cipher Brief: The Cipher Brief has been fortunate enough to travel with you on several trips to Ukraine over the past few years. And there has been a sense that Ukrainians are ready for this war to end for more than a year now. When you combine that with the sanctions that President Trump is threatening, how desperate do you think the situation is on the Russian side to end this war?

Goff: The situation is not desperate enough to force an agreement by the Russians. It's not there yet, but the potential does exist, and the president has some tools at his disposal. He can intensify sanctions, he can continue to press India on the secondary oil market - that's having an effect – and when you look at recent political developments outside of Ukraine, like the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace deal that the president worked out, that's a problem for Russia. That's the beginning of the loss of the Caucasus.

So, cracks are beginning to appear in the so-called near abroad of Russia and meanwhile you you have new NATO members Finland and Sweden and in Finland in particular, President Alexander Stubb has gotten buddy buddy with Donald Trump. They call each other almost daily and they seem to have a real friendship. So, the president has a number of people who are whispering in his ear who understand the Russians and can guide him to some sort of political framework that is agreeable or acceptable to the Europeans and the Finns.

And prior to the summit, President Trump reached out to Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin’s ally. That was a smart move. That can't have gone over well with Putin. Lukashenko is a stalwart ally, but he's several times during the past decade, he has tried to creep out from underneath the Russian thumb. And so, you know, this is another pressure point that President Trump can use to kind of guide Russia down the path that is desired by Europe and the West.

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The Cipher Brief: When you're looking at overall U.S. strategy right now, it sounds like you're seeing the bits and pieces of this come together in different ways.

Goff: Yes. I mean, there’s a lot going on and the media tend to shine a spotlight on just one spot. Meanwhile, there's stuff going on in the shadows outside that spotlight. And I think that's what we're seeing here.

Look, in the end, there is a lot to be said in favor of trying to get some sort of normalization of relationships between the United States and Russia. Putin's a horrible person. He's committed many crimes, whether it's the invasion of Ukraine or the murder of political opponents or the jailing of political opponents who then die in jail. He’s committed a host of crimes. And he may be an unsavory character, but he's the leader of a nuclear state that represents an existential threat to the United States. So, there is logic behind trying to force a better relationship between Russia and the United States. I give President Trump credit for trying to find a new way to deal with Russia.

The Cipher Brief: What are the key things you're going to be looking for on Monday as President Zelensky meets with President Trump that are going to indicate some kind of progress toward an actual end to this war?

Goff: The things to look for are when the president has his conversations with the European allies and has his conversation with President Zelensky, we want to see signs that there's a consensus there of where to go next and not arguing like we've seen in the past. So, I think a good sign for the West would be consensus.

And from the Russian side, they can do a lot here. They can tone down their attacks on civilian infrastructure and civilian targets in Ukraine. They're not going to stop fighting in the East and they’re not going to stop fighting on the front. That will continue. But they could throw President Trump a bone here and declare some sort of moratorium on strikes against civilian or infrastructure targets.

That’s a long shot, but it's something that if we saw it, that would be hugely positive. I just don't think we're going to see it. In the meantime, there's improved prospects for the Ukrainians too. There are a lot of rumors that they are developing a ballistic missile capability of their own and that would allow them to strike deeper into Russian territory at more strategic targets as opposed to just utilizing drone strikes. So, there's still stuff yet to come in this war that could have an impact.

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OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE –The world is a much different place than it was in 2018, when Putin and Trump met in Helsinki. And the stakes for Friday’s meeting could not be higher because the world is a much more dangerous place. Without hyperbole, one can argue that the fate of the free world hangs in the balance.

If Putin walks away having conceded nothing and instead, convincing the U.S. to put pressure on Ukraine to make concessions or face consequences, Putin will have achieved a major success and will be emboldened to continue his aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere. China and Iran will be similarly encouraged with unfortunate future kinetic consequences in East Asia and the Middle East. This would be a train wreck for the free world.

We will see if the meeting turns out to be a catastrophe that leads to a bigger war as was the case with the Munich conference in September 1938. Or if Trump and Putin decide to go down the path of the Yalta meeting in February 1945 where the post war world was divided up between the West and the Soviet Union. Or it could be a meeting that bears the characteristics of the Casablanca conference in January 1943—at a time when World War II was not going well for the allies—where the leaders of the West (principally Churchill and Roosevelt) issued the Casablanca Declaration which promulgated the policy of “unconditional surrender.”

This doctrine represented the determination of the united powers of the Allies to fight to bring about the ultimate defeat of the Axis powers lead by Germany and Japan. Let us hope President Trump realizes the importance of the moment and uses the opportunity to pass a similarly strong message to the leader of the anti-free world coalition, sometimes referred to as the Axis of Resistance.

At the time of the 2018 Helsinki Summit there was no war in Europe. We are now witnessing the biggest military conflict in Europe since 1945, initiated by Putin. There is an ongoing conflict in the Middle East in Gaza and the possibility of renewed conflict with Iran if it attempts to rebuild its nuclear weapons program.

The Deputy Secretary of the Russian National Security Council has made direct threats of nuclear conflict and the use by Russia of a Doomsday weapon, the “Dead Hand” system. Trump ordered the out of cycle deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines in response. China seems engaged in more aggressive and intimidating military operations around Taiwan.

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There have been positive developments for the Free World since 2018 that President Trump should recall. The regime of Putin’s friend and ally Basher al-Assad in Syria collapsed and he is now in exile in Moscow. The favored proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, allies of Iran, have been crushed. Iran itself has been effectively attacked and its nuclear program severely damaged if not destroyed. Sweden and Finland are now members of the NATO alliance. NATO itself has found new relevance and purpose. Europe is committed to rearmament. From a strategic perspective, Putin’s situation has worsened dramatically since 2018. The Axis is sinking.

Yet Putin believes he is in a position of strength. He feels that way because of what he has achieved over the past several months – up to and including meeting with President Trump’s lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff. Astonishingly, Witkoff agreed to a three-hour meeting with Putin using only a Russian-provided interpreter. Putin certainly knew he was in complete control from that moment onward. It appears Witkoff was confused about what was said at that meeting and it is certain he delivered no tough messages to Putin about the consequences Russia would face if it continued the war in Ukraine.

Putin however, came away from the meeting having conceded nothing in terms of Russia’s objectives setting the stage for the Alaska meeting. First round to Putin. He gets a summit on US soil. And will get the prestige of meeting a U.S. President as an equal when he is not an equal.

The results of Witkoff’s meetings in Moscow and Trump’s refusal to stand by his threats of massive consequences if Russia didn’t take steps to end the war by last Friday, caused elation in Russian media and within circles in the Kremlin. They were equally disheartening in Kyiv and European capitals. Happily, the US, Europe, and Ukraine seemed to have aligned their positions following a conference call last week and Trump has renewed his threat of severe consequences for Russia if an agreement for at least a cease fire is not achieved on February 15. But this is not enough. Putin is buying more time to kill and wittingly or not, Trump is granting it.

Putin’s approach to Trump is not friendship. It’s raw manipulation. Much has been made of Putin’s background as an intelligence officer, in understanding how he thinks, as it should. His training has prepared him for meetings like this. And Putin has been at this game a long time. He has seen plenty of U.S. Presidents come and go. He will remember well the mistakes Trump made in the meetings they had during Trump’s first term. You can be sure Putin will use equal parts of flattery for what Trump has achieved in the first months of his second term, sympathy for the challenges Trump faces with the “deep state and Russian election influence conspiracy,” disparagement about the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations under the Biden Administration, and complaints about the corruption and Nazi antecedents of the Zelensky Administration, and plenty of rhetoric about the roots of the current conflict lying with the aggressive expansion eastward of the NATO military alliance. Putin is certainly confident these messages will resonate with Trump. Putin will be similarly confident Trump will be even less prepared for this hastily arranged summit than he was for their meetings during Trump’s first term.

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As of now, there is no indication of any movement toward a concession from Moscow on Ukraine. Putin may offer some vague commitment to negotiations as he has in the past. He will likely offer concessions on an issue unrelated to Ukraine, such as nuclear arms control, to give Trump something that can be portrayed as an accomplishment from the summit. This costs him nothing and moves no closer to stopping the killing in Ukraine.

President Trump has the opportunity to turn the tables on Putin if he is willing. It’s not likely to happen, but Trump should first open the meeting by reminding Putin that he is a wanted war criminal and that it is only through the benevolence of the U.S. that he is not arrested and remanded to The Hague.

Secondly, Trump should tell Putin in no uncertain terms that Russia is solely responsible for this conflict and the “threat” posed to Russia by NATO is pure bunk.

Thirdly, Trump should express solid U.S. support for a free Ukraine and communicate clearly that when the conflict ends, the U.S. and its European allies will be guarantors of free Ukraine. Then Trump should turn to the matter at hand and demand Putin issue an immediate ceasefire order and begin negotiations with Ukraine on a peaceful resolution of the conflict.

President Trump should disabuse Putin of any notion that the old Russian negotiating maxim of “what’s ours is ours and what’s yours is negotiable” will not apply in these negotiations.

Trump should remind Putin he is prepared to move forward with the tough bipartisan sanctions legislation in Congress and immediately increase military and financial aid to Ukraine—especially air defense systems. Putin will certainly have on his mind the TACO acronym (standing for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’) as he prepares for another opportunity to manipulate the U.S. President. Trump should create the reverse by putting the type of pressure on Putin that will send him back to Moscow with his tail between his legs. Anything short of that will not stop the killing in Ukraine.

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