On December 18th, days before Christmas, Keonne Rodriguez, co-founder of the Bitcoin Samourai Wallet, will have to surrender to prison. His crime? Creating a software tool that gave Bitcoin users comparable privacy to that which banks are expected to provide. Samourai Wallet, the brand and technology stack built by Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, was shut down by the U.S. Government in April 2024 on a variety of charges, including money laundering, but only one charge stuck after a high-profile trial, the weakest charge of all, “unlicensed money transmission”.
What does it mean to transmit money? According to prosecutors, custodial control over user funds is no longer a requirement to need an MSB license; “a USB cable transfers data from one device to another, and a frying pan transfers heat from a stove to the contents of the pan, although neither situation involves exercising ‘control’ over what is being transferred.” If the DoJ can indict a frying pan, then USB manufacturers better lawyer up!
While I’m no genius, the Supreme Court has emphasized that laws should be clear enough for an AVERAGE PERSON to understand
Let’s get into the minutiae of the specific subsection of the charge they pled to
Remarkably, even FinCEN disagrees with the DoJ’s novel legal interpretation of what constitutes a money transmitter, as guidance at the time said non-custodial services could not be money transmitters because they do not exert control over money flows. FinCEN reasserted this fact to the DoJ prosecutors in a written statement, but they went forward with the charges anyway. This critical fact was withheld from the defense for almost a year, when it was finally revealed, “the judge denied the motion to present this evidence in the hearings, without even any argument,” according to Rodriguez. Critics argue this misconduct by the DoJ prosecutors is a violation of Brady v. Maryland, denying access to material that could have undermined the unlicensed money transmission charges, or, as Donald J. Trump would put it, this prosecution was rigged.
Zack Shapiro, head of policy at the Bitcoin Policy Institute, warns the Trump administration and American software industry about the potential ramifications of this legal case, arguing that “collapsing the distinction between developing a tool and operating a service would introduce an untenable level of risk for anyone building privacy-enhancing or security-critical software.”
“Rodriguez and Hill ultimately accepted plea agreements in the face of substantial sentencing exposure, even though government records undermined the central regulatory theory of the case,” Shapiro added in a letter published on the BPI website, asking the Trump admin to pardon the Samourai Wallet devs.
Fundamentally, the prosecutorial approach in the Samourai Wallet case risks establishing an influential precedent that threatens the financial privacy of American citizens and stifles innovation in the U.S. crypto industry. It could shape future prosecutions and regulatory developments, potentially reclassifying non-custodial services as money transmitters under federal law—requiring national MSB registration with FinCEN—and prompting stricter state-level licensing in jurisdictions like New York or California.
Echoing the trial against Ross Ulbricht a decade earlier, this rigged case against Samourai Wallet was set up during the Biden administration with support from anti-crypto politicians whom Trump defeated in the 2025 elections with the popular mandate. During his campaign at the 2024 Bitcoin Nashville speech, Trump said, “I will always defend the right to self-custody,” and got major support from the Bitcoin and crypto industries through the shared vision of making the United States the crypto capital of the world.
“I pledge to the Bitcoin community that the day I take the oath of office, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over,” – Donald J. Trump, Nashville 2024.
David Sacks, the venture capitalist and White House A.I. & Crypto Czar, should also pay attention to this issue; otherwise, what does it even mean to be the Crypto Czar? If Bitcoin wallets end up regulated the same as banks, despite having no counterparty risk, then whose interests are really being served, Mainstreet’s or Wallstreet’s?
While the Trump admin has been very conservative during the DoJ’s prosecution and trial of the Samourai Wallet devs — and perhaps, understandably so — that stage of the legal battle is over.
It is time for the Trump administration to meet its promise to the American public and defend self-custody and the crypto industry in America. It is time for Trump to set the record straight and pardon Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill, as well as the Tornado Cash devs, while we are at it, lest we have another Ross Ulbricht-style miscarriage of justice.
The Bitcoin and crypto industry is well behind this effort and has begun gathering signatures at Change.org, totaling over 5000 so far and growing, with the only official fundraising campaign at GiveSendGo.
Should Trump pardon the Samourai Wallet devs, he would be sending a clear signal to those who want surveillance-based, central bank digital currency systems to enslave Americans and the world that Americans will not stand for it. That the United States stands with the fundamental human right to privacy, dignity, due process, and the presumption of innocence, and not the tactics of intimidation developed by the likes of Joseph Gorbles, where privacy is a crime. Mass, indiscriminate surveillance, without a warrant, without due process, that is the real crime.
This piece is featured in the print edition of Bitcoin Magazine, The Freedom Issue. We’re sharing it here as a sample of the ideas explored throughout the full issue.
On November 3, 2025, the freedom for developers to build financial privacy software is on trial.
Samourai Wallet was a Bitcoin privacy wallet developed by Keonne Rodriguez and William Lonergan Hill. It included specialized privacy tools that mixed the coins of wallet users in ways that required no third-party custody. The service’s servers helped coordinate “mixing” — methods to conceal the origin of coins and offer users some degree of forward privacy.
Rodriguez and Hill were arrested on April 24, 2024, on two charges: conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business and conspiracy to commit money laundering.
The U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) accused the Samurai Wallet developers of facilitating over $2 billion in unlawful transactions through their cryptocurrency mixing service between 2015 and February 2024. Additionally, the DoJ alleges that the developers helped launder more than $100 million in criminal proceeds from illegal dark web markets, such as Silk Road and Hydra Market, as well as other hacking and fraud schemes.
The case of United States v. Rodriguez and Hill threatens the established precedents of code as speech on two major fronts.
The first regards the “$2 billion in unlawful transactions” accusation. The prosecution implies that software that aids or facilitates the movement of money in any way is indistinguishable from money transmission and that it requires a money transmitter license, even if that software never holds custody of user funds. This is entirely at odds with the dynamic that had previously been established by FinCEN’s 2019 guidance and other legacy financial regulations.
The second implication is that software that defends the privacy of communications or transfer of value is not protected speech under the United States’ First Amendment.
Code is Speech
The United States has a long and unique tradition of defending freedom of speech.
Over the years, many court cases have reinforced these values, creating precedents that let developers create great software and share it online. That kind of software has made the United States the technological epicenter of the world, from AI to cryptographic finance; the freedom to build software today is critical to the economic success of the nation.
Texas v. Johnson (1989), for example, established that burning the U.S. flag in protest was indeed protected speech even though the “speech” in this case was “functional”, i.e., expressed in the destruction of the flag.
In the 1990s, with the rise of the internet, landmark cases like Bernstein v. United States (1996-1999) established that discussions about cryptography — specifically the sharing of source code involving cryptographic algorithms — was not a “munition” governed and regulated by the Arms Export Control Act and the International Traffic in Arms Regulations. On the contrary, the publication of source code explaining how cryptography worked was expressive speech and thus fully protected under the First Amendment.
The Bernstein case marked a critical victory for the Cypherpunks of the ’90s, whose contributions to open source software laid the foundations for Bitcoin: Many of the technologies that Satoshi Nakamoto used in its construction were indeed invented in the internet forums of the time. It was there that the Cypherpunks discussed the application of cryptography to the defense of freedom of speech, digital privacy, and civil rights.
In the Universal City Studios v. Corley (2001) case, however, something shifted slightly. Jon Lech Johansen, a Norwegian teenager, wrote software that jail-broke copyrighted movies from software locks placed there by Universal Studios, making movies playable in Linux systems. Eric Corley, a U.S. journalist, published the software online, which led to a massive lawsuit spearheaded by Universal Studios.
This landmark case turned on the question of whether something is speech or conduct in the realm of software. It established that when speech in the form of software gained “function”, such as the breaking of a DVD encryption lock, it suddenly became a tool and could become subject to regulation.
While Corley’s free speech protections were eventually reaffirmed in the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, the distinction between source code publications as a form of expression and functional software as a tool that can be regulated was established.
Despite the rulings — Corley even removed the copy of the DeCSS piracy software from his website — the damage was done. Internet civil disobedience spread the software far and wide, and the piracy wars of the 2000s raged on for years. They demonstrated not just the limits of free speech protections but also the limits of trying to enforce digital censorship.
Information simply wants to be free.
The Samourai case could face a similar challenge, and it is unclear whether “code is speech” can be a sufficient defense for Rodriguez and Hill.
Chink in the Armor
A controversial project that created as many loyal superusers as it did haters and critics is now on the front lines of the Biden-era lawfare, and the principle that code is speech appears to be at stake once again.
As a result, it has forced critics — myself included — to rise to the defense of a wallet that, while quite successful in its adoption, made many design choices that were questionable and for which they may be judged harshly in the coming months.
One potential weak point in their defense is their alleged enabling of sanctioned parties to “launder money” through their coin-mixing service. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) went as far as to embed a screenshot of the Samourai wallet account welcoming sanctioned oligarchs:
Coin mixers are akin to the virtual private networks (VPNs) used by law-abiding citizens and criminals alike. For privacy to exist, one must be able to hide in a crowd, their choices and personal information shielded from prying eyes, and to be revealed or judged after due process.
With that, the Samourai Wallet founders did not make themselves a difficult target. If the allegations by the prosecution are true, and they knowingly helped dress up wolves in sheep’s clothing, then they likely will have to pay a price for violating sanctions doctrines. A deeply chilling legal precedent could then be set, shaping the future of digital finance and directly harming the proliferation of such technology in the United States.
However, there may be hope in the change to a more crypto-friendly administration under the leadership of President Trump.
“I Will Defend Your Right to Self Custody” – Trump
During his keynote speech at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in 2024, Trump made a promise, one that he still has the opportunity to keep.
He promised to “defend the right to self custody”.
Without financial privacy, self custody is dramatically weakened, as seen by the growing wave of physical attacks on Bitcoiners in recent years. The liberty previously enjoyed by software developers to build self-custodial Bitcoin tools like Samourai Wallet, is on trial.
The chilling effect
The U.S. government has, for the most part, learned not to attack an already hardened legal precedent like freedom of expression. However, by going after the developers and maintainers of Samourai Wallet directly, the DoJ had a net negative effect on financial privacy in the U.S., and it spread a chilling effect among Bitcoin software developers.
Immediately following the arrest of Rodriguez and Hill, Phoenix Wallet, arguably the best self-custodial Lightning wallet in the industry, exited the U.S. app stores — a decision made to protect their business from a U.S. government that appeared hostile to Bitcoin self-custody software. (As of April 2025, Phoenix is once more available in the U.S.) Wasabi Wallet, another financial privacy software company, stopped offering its noncustodial mixing services to the public. And wallets like Blink from El Salvador geofenced American users from their app entirely.
If Trump is going to really defend the right to self custody, and stop the eventual deployment of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the United States (another election promise), he will have to address the need for financial privacy in the digital era and reverse the injustices set in course by the Biden administration.
In one way or another, these cases will leave a mark on his presidential legacy.
Foundations of a CBDC
The Biden administration continued to sue, scrutinize, and debank the crypto industry — a policy that started under Obama with Operation Choke Point and ultimately resulted in Silicon Valley CEOs losing access to their bank accounts altogether.
A sharp example of permissioned financial rails being abused was also witnessed in Canada in 2022 when the bank accounts of truckers and donors were frozen during the Freedom Convoy COVID protests in Ottawa, following the invocation of the Emergencies Act by then-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Furthermore, top U.S. officials from the Treasury have stated that central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) would need to have strong identity tracking, even while “balancing consumer privacy”, striking at a trade-off that’s sacrificing user privacy altogether:
“The Report notes that ‘a CBDC system could increase the amount of data generated on users and transactions,’ which would pose ‘privacy and cyber security risks, but … offer opportunities for proper … supervision and law enforcement efforts.’”
Among the ideals of justice and fairness laid out by the Constitution is one where the privacy of the individual is granted by default, where there is a presumption of innocence, and the prosecution must prove the accused’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
The Fourth Amendment rights of innocent Americans who were using Samourai Wallet in particular are under attack by the kind of lawfare seen in the Samourai case:
“The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.”
Our homes are no longer just made of brick and stone, and our words no longer contained within those four walls. They are often digitized and transmitted, and so is the value they hold and move. Like cash in a sealed envelope, the use of financial privacy software naturally fits the protections of the Fourth Amendment, especially when no custody of funds is ever taken by the infrastructure facilitating its transit.
Yet the few tools that protect this default access to privacy have been systematically attacked and undermined in the digital age, akin to the government suing envelope manufacturers as money launderers for obfuscating the contents of a person’s exchanges.
It’s actually much worse. While developers of privacy software like Samourai Wallet are harassed, legacy financial institutions, in their attempt to be compliant with KYC and AML regulations — the same class of regulations used to prosecute Samourai Wallet today — are forced to gather excessive private information from their customers in order to report anything “suspicious” to the authorities.
These KYC data vaults are regularly hacked. Indeed, it’s impossible to keep them secure as they grow in size and become targets for cybercriminals, which exposes everyday people to organized crime in the form of identity theft and fraud. By 2012 in the U.S, identity fraud cost more than all other forms of theft combined, reaching over $21 billion, and this figure rose to $52 billion by the 2020s.
This surveillance infrastructure is doing profound and irreversible harm to U.S. citizens and the legacy financial system as a whole.
It is nevertheless sold as the necessary evil that stops money laundering by cartels and ends terrorist financing via sanctions through mechanisms like the OFAC list. And yet it is these same banks who are regularly busted laundering hundreds of millions of dollars for cartels, like TD Bank last year, which had to pay a record fine to U.S. regulators of $3 billion. It was accused of failing to surveil $18 trillion in transactions, of which close to $700 million was allegedly moved by drug cartels. Despite all the regulations and compliance, it turns out it was the banks that were doing the bulk of the money laundering.
When it comes to sanctions, meanwhile, Russia has received the worst lot of U.S. sanctions in recent memory, perhaps in history,including freezing its foreign treasury reserves. Despite that, Russia has run over major territories in Ukraine during the invasion and managed to survive long enough to be in a very strong negotiating position on the other side of the conflict — effectively marking the end of the sanctions foreign policy regime. It is no coincidence that the Trump administration is so focused on tariffs, overseeing the flow of goods across borders instead of the flow of money.
Also, let us not forget that when it comes to terrorist financing, it was the CIA that funded and trained the Afghan Mujaheddin in the ’80s, training guerrilla operatives like Osama bin Laden, who later on helped create Al Qaeda and carried out 9/11.
None of these crimes were done by Bitcoin or Bitcoiners. But the consequences of these laws weigh heavily on civilian populations. And the exponential growth of identity theft, the demoralizing ironies of the war on cash, the micromanagement overhead of the public’s finances, and the chilling effect on privacy-oriented software developers are the direct consequence of the KYC panopticon being constructed all around us.
All these policies can be summed up as flash points in the war on cash, a broad policy strategy of the pre-Trump era, that I believe was meant to set a foundation for the deployment of CBDCs, a state monstrosity that Trump specifically promised to protect us from.
Lesson Learned
The biggest concern I had with the Samourai Wallet’s mobile app was its backend design. Ambitious and commendable as it was to try and bring cutting-edge, self-custodial coin mixing to the masses, in order to achieve it, Samourai Wallet made some questionable compromises — compromises which competitors and critics doubted were worth the upside and which can be judged in the trial as well. The most obvious problem was the way the mobile client was said to handle the xpubs of their users.
Xpubs are very important cryptographic information in Bitcoin and crypto wallets. Similar to IP addresses in the world of VPNs, xpubs represent a key piece of identifying information for Bitcoin users. Anyone who has your xpub can deterministically recreate all public addresses you ever had or ever will have in that wallet, allowing them to know exactly what public Bitcoin addresses are within your control and which funds have moved through them.
In the marketing and debates about VPNs — which are in some sense the early web’s equivalent to Bitcoin mixers — IP addresses, and whether a service can or cannot keep IP logs, is critical to their credibility among a savvy user base. Services often boast about their processes and procedures around not keeping their users’ IP addresses, which, if shut down — as Samourai Wallet has been — could end up in the hands of prosecutors, compromising the browsing history of their users.
In the case of Samourai Wallet and xpubs, a similar rule of thumb should apply. Internet users throughout the decades have discovered that paranoia about the quality of the tools and implementations pays off in the end. This lesson has been learned the hard way as VPN services and privacy-oriented email providers have been hacked or seized by government prosecutors. If there’s user data accumulated, the service can become a juicy target.
We don’t yet know what data Samourai Wallet had in the 17 terabytes confiscated by the U.S. government. Most of it is likely on-chain analysis done by their research arm OXT. But if user data was kept, then the privacy of many of those users might be at risk as well.
The Trump Legacy?
It is fascinating that the future of software developers and their freedom to build private self-custody software will be judged and shaped in an age where Michael Saylor argues that the coin is not a currency and Trump, the self-branded crypto president, promises to protect your self-custody rights.
As Rodriguez and Hill stand trial, those wrapping themselves in the orange flag and those who can influence public policy about financial privacy will also be on trial in the court of public opinion; history will be their judge.
For us plebs who cannot influence public policy directly and can only judge the tools we use on their merit, there is a moral to this story. Compromising on privacy for convenience — to avoid the learning curve otherwise required — does not come without risk.
And on a long enough time frame, only the paranoid crypto-anarchists survive.
This piece is featured in the print edition of Bitcoin Magazine, The Freedom Issue. We’re sharing it here as a sample of the ideas explored throughout the full issue.
AuthenticDoc, a decentralized digital signature platform developed in El Salvador, launched on November 13, 2025, at the Adopting Bitcoin conference in San Salvador. The tool uses the Nostr protocol for its open-source, decentralized architecture, incorporating Bitcoin-compatible cryptography to enable tamper-proof document verification and user-controlled private keys.
Co-founder Fabian, of the Salvadoran firm illuminodes, announced the release during the conference. “The digital signature landscape is ripe for innovation, and AuthenticDoc is leading the charge,” Fabian said. “We’ve harnessed the power of decentralized open protocol technology to deliver unparalleled security and control, effectively eliminating single points of failure that plague traditional solutions. Our platform provides a robust, tamper-proof cryptographic verification and authentication solution that businesses can trust, all while making it accessible and affordable.”
Built by Bitcoiners, the start-up addresses vulnerabilities in centralized platforms like DocuSign, which holds about 70% of the $10 billion digital signature market. According to their press release, the sector is projected to grow to $60 billion by 2030 at a 40% compound annual growth rate, fueled by regulations such as the EU’s eIDAS and the U.S. ESIGN Act, alongside remote work trends and AI-driven authenticity challenges.
The platform’s core features include trustless identity verification, private key management for users, and ISO-standard compliance for enterprise use. It eliminates reliance on centralized storage by using Nostr’s event-based system, where documents and signatures are cryptographically signed and distributed across a network of relays, ensuring robust data storage and distribution.
Diego, head of technology at illuminodes, emphasized the shift from legacy systems. “Our decentralized architecture empowers users with private key control and trustless identity verification, moving beyond the vulnerabilities of centralized systems,” Adding that, “this is not just an incremental improvement; it’s a paradigm shift in how digital signatures are secured and managed.”
AuthenticDoc is free for basic use, with paid tiers based on volume for enterprises, undercutting competitors’ license-based models. The platform supports global expansion from its El Salvador headquarters, leveraging local talent and regulatory support to target markets in Latin America, North America, and Europe.
Last week was a bit of a roller coaster ride, while bears kicked the price down to the $84,000 support level early in the week, bulls stepped in down there to rally the price up to the $94,000 resistance level. From there, the price dropped once again, just below $88,000 on Sunday morning, before seeing a small rally to close the week out at $90,429. This week, bitcoin bulls will look to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday to produce a much-anticipated rate cut to help facilitate a better investment environment for bitcoin and other assets. Climbing above $94,000 will be key for the bulls this week, if they hope to sway the market more in their favor.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
Bitcoin closed the week as a doji candle on Sunday, indicating indecision between buyers and sellers. The short-term outlook is slightly in the bulls’ favor, who will look to conquer the $94,000 resistance level. If they can establish this level as support, they will look to $101,000 as the next major resistance level, with sellers likely to begin slowing momentum down above $96,000. Beyond $101,000, we look to $104,000 and then a resistance zone between $107,000 and $110,000. Resistance gets very thick above $100,000.
Looking down to support levels, bulls will want to see $87,200 hold any daily closes to avoid another test of the $84,000 support level below. Any further touches of $84,000 will weaken it and make it less likely to remain in place as a floor. There is a $72,000 to $68,000 support zone, which will look to buoy the price below here. Below $68,000 would likely see the price chop around some, but look to hang onto the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,700. It is unlikely we would test this lower level for at least several weeks, though, if it even comes.
Outlook For This Week
Short-term momentum slightly favors the bulls early this week. The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is showing some positive progress, generating higher highs off the 13 SMA support. This week, bulls will look for the 13 SMA to continue to act as support and help push the RSI above 60 into bullish territory. As long as bulls can remain above support levels heading into Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, they have a chance to tackle higher levels on a rate cut. If the FOMC meeting surprises everyone with no rate cut announcement, expect $84,000 support to fail.
Market mood: Very Bearish – Bulls have managed to put in a small rally here over the prior two weeks, but the price action has been lackluster and is still favoring the bears.
The next few weeks The bearish cross in place on the monthly MACD oscillator will continue to weigh on price throughout December and likely into January as well, barring any major moves up in price to undo it. Bitcoin price will need to continue to climb higher and maintain closes above the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits at $84,700 heading into this week. Even if bulls can manage to keep momentum going over the coming weeks, there is heavy resistance sitting at $110,000 and above, and the price is very likely to pull back from that level (or lower) on the weekly chart. Doing so would put in a convincing lower high on the weekly chart and provide the bears with renewed conviction on a longer-term top being in place.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
SMA: Simple Moving Average. Average price based on closing prices over the specified period. In the case of RSI, it is the average strength index value over the specified period.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
RSI Oscillator: TheRelative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of the price and changes in the speed of the price movements. When RSI is over 70, it is considered to be overbought. When RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.
MACDOscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that subtracts the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.
Nunchuk Inc. is an open source, multi-signature mobile wallet for advanced bitcoin security, self-custody, and inheritance. Launched in 2020, the app offers users a feature-rich toolkit to set up high-security bitcoin wallets, with little competition on the mobile app market, as most other mobile wallets do not support multi-signature functionality at all.
Most wallets require a single private key to sign a valid Bitcoin transaction. Multi-signature Bitcoin wallets, in turn, require more than one private key to sign a valid Bitcoin transaction, often a threshold, such as two of three or three of five. This lock, so to speak, is enforced by the full power of the Bitcoin network, making it one of the most secure ways to store wealth today and probably in history.
Nunchuk told Bitcoin Magazine they help secure over a billion dollars worth of bitcoin today, “it is our (paid) assisted services that have helped users secure +$1B in BTC thus far.”, but that was not always the case. Born out of Bitcoin idealism in the thick of the COVID pandemic, Nunchuk was built to facilitate advanced security wallets that use multi-signature in the defense of self-custody. In 2022, as a young start-up, these ideals were put to the test, as activists of the Canadian Freedom Convoy Protests decided to use Nunchuk to secure bitcoins donated to the protest against COVID repression.
The turmoil saw over a million dollars worth of Bitcoin donated to Honk Honk Hodl, a group of reputable activists in the country, to help fund the costs of Truckers who were gathering in Ottawa. The truckers were putting their lives on the line to protest the extreme restrictions put in place by the Canadian government in response to the pandemic, and were facing massive pressure to leave the capital.
Over 20 bitcoins were received into a Nunchuk multi-signature wallet under the banner of Honk Honk Hodl. Nunchuk multi-sig was chosen to mitigate the risk of putting all that money in the hands of just one person.
Hugo Nguyen, founder of Nunchuk, told Bitcoin Magazine that the Honk Honk Hodl wallet received so many individual donations that it actually broke the wallet. The app was not designed to sign transactions with so many bitcoin inputs, and the start-up had to push an update to let the activists easily move their funds.
The protests were so effective and gained such a positive reception internationally that Trudeau’s government panicked and invoked the Emergencies Act, a rare use of federal powers, which he used to try to shut down all sources of funding coming to the protesters, in an effort to scare them off the capital. This included 10 million dollars in donations from Canadians to a GoFundMe campaign, which were ultimately returned to contributors after the payment processor faced legal action from the Canadian government.
When it came to the bitcoin donations, the digital currency’s alleged censorship resistance was put to the test. Canada sent a Mareva injunction to Nunchuk Inc., demanding the company freeze user funds and disclose user data to the government. Nunchuk, as a privacy-oriented, non-custodial wallet, had no power to comply. Nunchuk was just two months old at the time, a self-funded startup. This was their response:
“Dear Ontario Superior Court of Justice,
Nunchuk is a self-custodial, collaborative multisig Bitcoin wallet. We are a software provider, not a custodial financial intermediary.
Our software is free to use. It allows people to eliminate single points of failure and store Bitcoin in the safest way possible, while preserving privacy.
We do not collect any user identification information beyond email addresses. We also do not hold any keys. Therefore:
– We cannot “freeze” our users’ assets.
– We cannot “prevent” them from being moved.
– We do not have knowledge of “the existence, nature, value and location” of our users’ assets. This is by design.
Please look up how self-custody and private keys work. When the Canadian dollar becomes worthless, we will be here to serve you, too.
Sincerely,
The Nunchuk team”
In a matter of hours, over 14 bitcoins were delivered to over 90 truckers by hand in envelopes, roughly 8000 Canadian dollars at the time, each. By the time the Canadian police raided Nicholas St. Louis’s home — the main activist behind the Honk Honk Hodl campaign — most of the bitcoin had been distributed. Only 0.28 BTC were reportedly seized in the raid. Up to 6 BTC in total were frozen from other truckers and protesters in the turmoil, resulting in a rough 70% success rate for the censorship-resistant currency.
These events had a deep impact on the Nunchuk team, some of whom quit out of fear of legal prosecution. Others who stayed and Nunchuk Inc. survived, its future design forged in the fires of the late COVID political turmoil.
The Nunchuk That Survived
Fast forward two years or so, and Nunchuk has carved itself a solid niche within the Bitcoin industry. It is the only open source, fully featured multi-signature mobile wallet for mobile devices. Where alternatives exist, they are often either antiquated, nearly abandoned, or closed-source and not functional without being a paid user.
Nunchuk is also the first significant implementation of miniscript, a high-level programming language for Bitcoin script, which lets developers build Bitcoin “smart contracts” with elegance and power not easily achieved using Bitcoin’s native scripting language. Miniscript was invented by Pieter Wullie, a legendary Bitcoin core developer with 14 years of experience contributing to the digital currency.
The wallet lets users create software and hardware keys based on a wide range of hardware signing devices, supporting the most advanced Bitcoin address types, like Segwit and Taproot. Users can then create a fully customizable range of wallets, from single key to advanced, to any combination of multiple keys the user deems useful.
Nunchuk even supports decaying multi-sigs, which are useful for inheritance and complex setups. For example, you might want a 3 of 5 multi-sig where you control all the keys but they are geographically distributed, this is a common model for high value inheritance accounts. One of those keys can be shared with an heir. After five years, the multi-sig degrades to a single-key wallet, letting your heir move the money. To prevent your heir from getting access to your Bitcoin before your time, you would need to move the coins to a fresh multi-sig 3 of 5 and reset the clock.
It’s important to note that creating your own complex security setups has risks; sometimes, users who become so sophisticated that they decide to use fully featured tools like Nunchuk end up creating mazes for their Bitcoin that they end up getting locked out of. It’s important to be careful and generally use best practices when creating self-custody Bitcoin wallets to avoid common pitfalls.
Nunchuk has standard templates and a complete inheritance feature set designed to help non-technical Bitcoin users benefit from the full power of Bitcoin self-custody. They even announced the inheritance solution for Bitcoiners that does not require a third-party intermediary to co-sign a transfer. Popular alternatives like Casa wallet offer inheritance solutions, but as a co-signer, they also get a full view into user data, and if the company fails, users must take an alternative key-signing path to recover funds. Nunchuk’s on-chain inheritance wallet leverages time locks and pre-designed multi-sig setups like the example above to give users maximum control and sovereignty in their inheritance setup.
Nunchuk nevertheless supports aided (off-chain) inheritance solutions as well, which use the co-signer model of inheritance and can be easier to use, offering similar features as other popular Bitcoin inheritance solutions.
Twenty One Capital, Inc. (“Twenty One”) led by CEO Jack Mallers and Cantor Equity Partners, Inc. (“CEP”) announced on the 3rd of December that their shareholders approved the combination of the two businesses, meaning that Twenty One is set to go public very soon.
The vote is expected to have received a lot of attention from retail shareholders, as the Mallers announced it on their podcast to more than 43 thousand subscribers and their X with half a million followers. The vote took place at the Extraordinary General Meeting of CEP’s shareholders, who approved the previously announced proposed business combination between the parties as well as all other proposals related to the Business Combination.
“The final voting results for the Meeting will be included in a Current Report on Form 8-K to be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by CEP,” according to a press release published by the company.
Subject to the satisfaction of other closing conditions described in the CEP’s definitive proxy statement and Twenty One’s final prospectus, the consummation of the related transactions should take place in the coming days, leading to Twenty One Capital, Inc. and its Class A common stock to start trading on the NYSE with the symbol “XXI” on December 9th, 2025.
The company is expected to exit its “quiet period” after this point and make a series of announcements about the future of the business. XXI announced earlier this year that it had received investment from Tether and Softbank, leading to the purchase of 42,000 bitcoins, which will position it as one of the largest public owners of the asset and is expected to unlock new financial service offers for Strike customers, Jack’s growing Bitcoin financial services app, and Cash App competitor.
Colombian Bitcoin and crypto mining company Horeb Energy reveals 2.5 cents per kWh of green biogas energy in the North Santander region of the Latin American country. The company has achieved energy prices 50% lower than the North American average of 3.5 to 6 cents per kwh for Bitcoin mining operations, through a strategic alliance with multinational energy company Veolia.
Authorized in 1853 by Napoleon III to help build out public water works infrastructure in France, Veolia is a global leader in environmental services focused on water, waste, and energy solutions. Today in Norte de Santander, Colombia, the company operates critical facilities dedicated to biogas valorization and solid waste management — a common problem in Colombia and Latin America in general, known for massive landfills. Veloia also operates the “Centro Inteligente de Gestión Ecológica” – CIGE Guayabal landfill, a pioneer in biogas systems development in the region.
Horeb Energy — the Bitcoin mining arm of the operation — specializes in technological solutions for biogas treatment and renewable energy production from waste. “It’s collaboration with Veolia in this pilot project sets a milestone for new sustainable business models in the global cryptocurrency mining sector,” the company said in a press release, adding that “The project aims to reduce the region’s carbon footprint significantly and demonstrates Veolia’s strong commitment to accelerating the ecological transformation of local territories.”
Through this pilot project, biogas generated at the CIGE Guayabal landfill by Veolia is transformed into electricity to supply a secure, standalone data center dedicated to cryptocurrency mining. Horeb Energy oversees advanced biogas filtration and energy conversion processes, and the Bitcoin mining dimension, which unlocks new economic models for energy infrastructure development in the region.
One year after its launch, the program boasts tangible results with the production of “nearly 1,000 kWh of 100% renewable energy”, powering an entirely off-grid Bitcoin container and mining system. This unique approach in the Colombian market provides an alternative use for methane gas — a byproduct of waste decomposition that poses environmental challenges for landfills.
Humberto Posada Cifuentes, General Manager of Veolia in Norte de Santander, said in a press release that this pilot “demonstrates that with innovation and strong local leadership, we can turn waste into value and contribute meaningfully to the clean energy transition.”
Arley Lozano, Operations Manager of Horeb Energy, told Bitcoin Magazine that they had achieved 2.5 cents a kWh in green energy, adding that “we are proud that this project has been developed by local talent in partnership with Veolia. Our goal is to replicate this model in other municipalities across Colombia and throughout Latin America.”
Bitcoin price managed to put in a green candle on the weekly close, finally, but it wasn’t enough to hold off the bears as the price dropped sharply right after the weekly and monthly close on Sunday night. The week and month closed at $90,385, still well below the closest resistance level at $91,400. Bears will likely look to take advantage of this weak close heading into this week, and potentially push the price down below the $84,000 support level.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
Bulls managed to test initial resistance last week at $91,400, but sold off heavily after hitting $93,000, short of the next resistance at $94,000. Above here, we should see strong resistance at $98,000 all the way up to $103,000. Higher resistance levels were covered in last week’s analysis, so we’ll reopen that topic if bulls can manage to get close to $100,000 after the end of this week.
$84,000 Support held firm this past week, but bulls did not muster much of a bounce. This support level will be under pressure heading into this week. Initially, bulls will look to hold the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement at $87,000, however. Below $84,000, bulls may look to defend $75,000. Below here, the $72,000 to $69,000 area should provide strong support and at least a bounce or two from this zone. If this area sees heavy selling pressure, though, it may eventually crack and usher in a test of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,700.
Outlook For This Week
With the price closing below resistance on Sunday, the bears jumped on this weakness and pushed the price down to $87,000 support. Look for bulls to defend this level early, but if it is lost, bulls know they must hold the line at $84,000 to avoid dropping to new lows and testing $75,000 this week. So, we may see some range-bound action this week as bears may still need a bit of a rest before taking out this support level. If bulls can hold them off, they will again attempt to conquer $91,400 and potentially $94,000 this week, but I wouldn’t expect any strong moves up this week.
The next few weeks Sunday night brought us the monthly candle close for November as well. November closed as a big red bearish candle, taking out the April, May and June green closes in one fell swoop. Price did rally to close above the monthly 21-EMA, which is a good sign, but December will have to try to put in some reversal candles to keep the bulls’ hopes alive. The most bearish aspect of November’s close is that it confirmed a bearish cross on the MACD oscillator. This is to be taken seriously on such a high time frame and should keep the price subdued for at least the coming two to three months. This signal is yet another sign that the Four-year cycle top is likely in.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).
MACDOscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that subtracts the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.
Simple Proof, the bitcoin-based document timestamping company, recently announced official partnerships with El Salvador’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Environment to protect
government records using the Bitcoin blockchain technology. The announcement was made during the Bitcoin Histórico conference at the National Theatre in San Salvador, where CEO Carlos Toriello presented alongside OpenTimestamps creator and Bitcoin Core Contributor Peter Todd.
The collaboration marks El Salvador’s continued leadership in applying Bitcoin technology beyond financial applications. Both ministries have begun registering official documents on the Bitcoin blockchain, with verified records now publicly accessible through dedicated government portals.
“Bitcoin is not just digital money — it’s also a clock that no one controls. This allows us to certify with precision the exact moment a document was created, guaranteeing its authenticity and protecting the country’s history forever… We’re helping ensure that the country’s history is preserved intact and can be verified directly on Bitcoin, without intermediaries,” said Carlos Toriello, CEO of Simple Proof, in a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine.
The company has had multiple successful pilot programs in the past, including one in Screven County, Georgia, in the United States and another in Guatemala, where it had a direct influence on the 2023 elections.
This deployment builds on Simple Proof’s previous work in El Salvador, where CUBO+ program graduation certificates became the first public documents in the country registered via the Bitcoin blockchain.
The Ministry of Environment’s timestamped documents, including national reports and public files, are available at blockchain.ambiente.gob.sv. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers verification of institutional reports and records at rree.gob.sv/logros-y-memorias.
Peter Todd, creator of OpenTimestamps, the platform and protocol used in part to time-stamp critical data on the Bitcoin blockchain, said in the press release that, “With a single transaction, we can protect millions of documents without congesting the network or altering its monetary function,” noting that the system stores only cryptographic hashes rather than actual documents on Bitcoin.
The project positions El Salvador as a global reference for using blockchain technology in government
information management, strengthening the transparency and public trust of democratic institutions and processes, by eliminating the possibility of document tampering.
Bitcoin Bulls Stunned after Sellers Take Price All the Way Down to $80K
Last week, we identified the $84,000 area as the next major support for bitcoin, and that’s exactly where the price went. Bitcoin dropped to nearly $80,000 but managed to climb back above $84,000 support to close the week out at $86,850. Heading into this week, look for bears to let off the gas pedal a little bit as they sit comfortably in control of the price action. Daily oscillators were heavily oversold heading into this past weekend, so a bounce is in order at least into Monday, possibly a little further out.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
$84,000 Support held on the weekly close, so this is the level bulls will want to remain above into this week’s close. If $84,000 is lost, bulls look to $75,000, which likely won’t be too strong of a support level, and below there we’ve got a high volume support zone between $72,000 and $69,000. It’s difficult to see the price pushing below $70,000 too quickly, so expect some bounces from this area, even if it eventually fails to hold. Below here, we have the $58k gang support and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,700.
With last week’s price breakdown, resistance levels have now changed heading into this week. Bulls will look to take on the $91,400 resistance level at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement first and foremost. Above here, we should see strong resistance at $94,000 now at the high volume node. If price can manage to grind through this zone, $98,000 sits above it as a final barrier to establish this high-volume node as support. If this occurs, there are still resistance levels at $103,000 and another at $109,000 at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Finally, $116,500 remains as the last layer of resistance preventing the price from achieving new highs.
Outlook For This Week
Daily RSI hit very oversold levels on Friday last week, so it is not surprising that the price made a move up into the weekend from those lows. This week, look for the price to try to challenge the $91,400 resistance level and potentially $94,000 if it can climb above there. As long as the price can hold above $84,000, it should try to head for those target levels. With all the selling leading into last Friday, another big selloff should not be expected, but if the $80,000 low is lost, the price could drop to $75,000 this week.
Market mood: Extremely Bearish –The bulls are down on the canvas. Little hope remains for any meaningful rally or new highs after losing major support levels.
The next few weeks The broadening wedge pattern we were watching for so many weeks finally and definitively broke to the downside last week. The target for this pattern is right around $70,000, so even if we see a rally this week and into the next, the price should eventually roll back over and head down to test $70,000. The US government, getting back to work last week, did nothing to assist the markets. In the coming weeks, it may be difficult to predict when economic data may or may not be available since much of it was delayed due to the shutdown. The market is mixed on whether or not the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at the next meeting, and they themselves seem to be conflicted between balancing inflation concerns with labor market issues.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.
High Volume Node: An area in the price where a large amount of buying and selling occurred. These are price areas that have had a high volume of transactions and we would expect them to act as support when price is above and resistance when price is below.
RSI Oscillator: TheRelative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of the price and changes in the speed of the price movements. When RSI is over 70, it is considered to be overbought. When RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.
Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.
Well, the hopes and dreams of the bulls have been dashed this week after Bitcoin closed the week out at $94.290, below the key $96,000 weekly support level. In the weeks ahead, we should expect more bearish price action as key support levels have been lost. Bounces back up may come, but they are unlikely to result in recapturing any meaningful price levels.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
Bitcoin price closed below the $96,000 support level identified in this article in prior weeks. Closing near the lows below this level provides very little chance, if any, for the price to recover and resume a bull market anytime soon. Looking lower, we have our next major support level below at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement from the 2022 bottom to October 2025 high, and another high volume node sitting in the $83,000 to $84,000 area. Below here, we would look to the highs of the 2024 consolidation zone between $69,000 and $72,000.
Resistance above $94,000 is thick now. With the price closing so low, we should not expect much of a bounce at this level, if any. If price does see any kind of bounce this week, we will look to the $98,000 level to hold as resistance. A short squeeze may be able to push the price past here to $101,000. Above this level, we have the equivalent of a brick wall in the $106,000 to $109,000 zone. Beyond the wall lies $114,000 as significant resistance, and $116,000 as a final reinforcement for the bears. If price closes above $116,000, if bulls can bash all the way up there, we would need to re-examine the market structure as it could flip bullish up there.
Outlook For This Week
Do you believe in miracles? You will need to know if you expect the bitcoin price to see any kind of meaningful rally this week. There is a tiny bit of hopium for the bulls in that the broadening wedge pattern has not definitively broken bearish. If we stretch it out as low as it can go (adjusted from prior weeks), the price is barely supported at the bottom at current lows. It’s a tall task for bulls, though, to make any meaningful gains with all the resistance levels outlined above. The best that bulls should expect is a bounce to $106,000, with the price likely to roll over to new lows from anywhere South of there. More likely, the broadening wedge will break to the downside at some point this week as bears are clearly in full control.
Market mood: Extremely Bearish – The bulls are down and out. Sitting at around $94,000, bitcoin has fallen over 25% from the October highs. Little hope remains for any meaningful rally or new highs after losing major support levels.
The next few weeks Examining all angles of the 4-year bitcoin cycle theory, the high has most likely already taken place. Timing for this was expected to take place sometime between September and December 2025, but with the price so low and so much resistance overhead, it is highly unlikely any kind of rally will sustain enough strength to bring the price to new highs before the end of this year. Is the 4-year cycle over? Well, seemingly not, since the price made a high in early October and has essentially gone straight down from there. Could we see a late 4-year cycle high in Q1 2026? Well, sure, it’s possible, but still highly improbable given bitcoin’s lack of strength in recent weeks, while the stock market has remained strong. With the traditional stock market appearing to have a bearish outlook for the foreseeable future, it is unlikely that bitcoin will see any meaningful rally during this period as well.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.
Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.
Lendasat, a Bitcoin-native peer-to-peer lending platform, announced today the launch of Lendaswap, an atomic swap exchange enabling instant, non-custodial trades between Bitcoin and stablecoins across Ethereum and leading EVM-compatible chains.
Powered by the Arkade protocol, Lendaswap uses HTLC-based atomic swaps — a technology similar to that of the Lightning Network — to deliver a seamless experience for anyone looking to swap BTC and stablecoins “without giving up self-custody, creating accounts, or relying on wrapped tokens,” according to a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine.
Lendaswap will support Ethereum and Polygon at launch, with planned expansion to Base, Solana, Binance Smart Chain, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Swaps are executed via Arkade, the new implementation of the Ark protocol, which should deliver “instant execution” on the Bitcoin side. Trades are also expected to be possible in both directions, so users will be able to swap BTC for stablecoins and vice versa.
“Bitcoin self-custody needs more than passive holding, it needs infrastructure,” said Philipp Hoenisch, co-founder of Lendasat, adding that “Lendaswap is a major step in unlocking more utility for BTC, and marks the first step for BitcoinFi. For the first time, anyone can move between Bitcoin and stablecoins without trusting a custodian, without wrapping, and without asking permission. This is what Bitcoin-native finance should look like.”
The startup demonstrates the power and potential of the Bitcoin scripting language, which had for years been dismissed as inferior to that of Ethereum-era blockchains. The Ark protocol used to make Lendaswap possible is an increasingly popular technology among Bitcoin enthusiasts and entrepreneurs.
Lava, the Bitcoin-backed loans software company, sparked controversy among Bitcoin CEOs recently, after a series of announcements following a $200 million fundraise. The company, led by Shehzan Maredia, had previously been marketed as a self-custody wallet and platform, mirroring the functionality of DeFi or decentralized finance products. The new update to the Lava app changed the custody model to a fully custodial and trusted fintech platform, raising questions about the lending company’s legal status.
The announcement about the fund raise drew the attention of Bitcoin industry leaders, who raised questions about the nature of the investment and the implications of the change in custody model, which Shehzan confirmed in follow-up X posts.
“The security of our users and their funds is our top priority. Every change we’ve made is guided by that. Lava no longer uses DLCs — discrete log contracts — for loans because the technology doesn’t meet our security standards. Our team built the largest application using DLCs, but we discovered vulnerabilities that we weren’t comfortable having (ex., client-side key risk, hot keys).”
Shezhan added that “Risks we previously thought were impossible, such as thinking oracles couldn’t be manipulated to liquidate individual users, we figured out were possible in practice. We are unwilling to compromise on security for our users at any level, and we take a very holistic view on removing trust, dependencies, and counterparty risk.”
DLCs are a kind of Bitcoin smart contract that can anchor the spendability of a bitcoin balance to an external event, such as the price of bitcoin in dollar terms, through the use of a third-party “oracle”. Oracle-based decentralized finance technology (DeFi) was recently exploited, resulting in a 20 billion dollar liquidation event, specifically targeting Binance’s stablecoin orderbook.
Their previous technology, which Shehzan says is still used by users who did not choose to update to the new version of the software, gave end users cryptographic control over part of the account via 2 of 2 multi-signature DLC smart contracts, limiting how the Bitcoin put up by users as collateral could move.
Lava’s terms of service still claim — as of the time of writing — that the company has “no exclusive custody or control over the contents of your wallet and has no ability to retrieve or transfer its contents.” Yet this contradicts statements made by Shehzan in recent days regarding the company’s pivot to a cold storage custody model.
Despite Shehzan’s clarification and posts on X, critics were skeptical of the reasoning. Some users were alarmed at the fundamental change in the custody model, which caught many by surprise and was communicated poorly, if at all.
One user, Owen Kemeys of Foundation devices, wrote, “Did Lava get my informed consent?” sharing a series of screenshots of the app update messaging, which says nothing about the change in custody model.
Will Foxley of Blockspace media complained, “Why did they roll legacy loans over without contact first. Plus, how did they do this if it was DLCs? Did I sign a bunch of pre-signed transactions that gave them control over the entire loan?”
The pivot has also raised questions about the company’s regulatory status and licenses, as centralized and custodial bitcoin-backed loan providers are arguably regulated under more traditional frameworks. Such regulations tend not to apply to DeFi-style self-custody products, precisely because user funds remain under user control, rather than under the complete control of a third party. With trust custodial trust becoming the Lava model overnight, what regulatory status does the company fall under?
Jack Mallers, CEO of Strike — a competing Bitcoin company with a Bitcoin-backed loans product line and a market leader — questioned the move, particularly in terms of licensing, which Strike has been working to acquire for years:
“If they’re custodial, how is what they’re doing legal?
Strike has been acquiring licenses for years. You can’t just “flip a switch” from non-custodial to custodial and start offering brokerage, trading, or lending services. That’s unlicensed activity, and it’s very illegal.
What licenses does Lava actually have that allow them to do what they’re doing?”
Bitcoin Magazine has not independently verified Lava’s licensing status. When asked for comment on the legal strategy and status of Lava, Shezhan pointed Bitcoin Magazine to the company’s FAQ, which does not appear to address the questions directly at all.
The nature of the investment announced by Lava was also called into question last week, as Cory Klipsten, CEO of Swan — a likely competitor to Lava — has also been actively engaging the story, suggesting it is specifically a line of credit agreement rather than an equity-style VC investment into the company. When asked, Shehzan told Bitcoin Magazine, “we raised both venture and debt,” referring to the 200 million raise announcement, though he did not go into details.
While the story is still developing and mostly involves discussions and debate on Bitcoin Twitter, the drama highlights the high value Bitcoiners place on self-custody and the risk of closed-source crypto applications, which can be updated without proper transparency or information being delivered to users about how their capital is secured.
Did you know you can build your own hardware wallet? I recently attended a workshop with Dani @bitcoineando, a Bitcoin evangelist and software engineer who will be hosting a workshop on just this topic next week in Adopting Bitcoin, El Salvador. The whole process took less than an hour and took me from having never assembled a small hardware device of this sort, to a fully configured and self-assembled Bitcoin Seedsigner and smart card backup combo via the Satochip suite.
For those attending the now historic Adopting Bitcoin conference coming up this month in El Salvador, the free workshop will take place on Friday, November 14th at 3:50-4:50 pm, in the English Workshop room and will be delivered in both English and Spanish. Attendees who bring a laptop and go through the full workshop will get a free Seedsigner + Satochip combo to take home, plus the knowledge of how to build the whole thing themselves. Sign up here to lock in a limited spot now.
What’s amazing about the combination of these two great open source projects is that they are made of very common hardware that can be purchased almost anywhere in the world. No specialized hardware from artisan manufacturers, this is a pure DIY project that can be a viable option for users in developing nations with tight import controls, under oppressive financial regimes, under a tight budget, or just those paranoid enough to want to build everything themselves.
SeedSigner
The SeedSigner project launched in December 2020 and empowers users to build their own affordable, air-gapped Bitcoin transaction signing device for more or less $50 using off-the-shelf components like the Raspberry Pi Zero v1.3, a camera module to scan QR codes, and a small LCD display to verify transactions and navigate the menu with a small joystick and three buttons.
Created by a pseudonymous founder known simply as “SeedSigner,” today supported by a growing community of contributors and led by Kieth Mukai, the project emphasizes trustless private key generation and supports a wide range of toolin,g such as BIP39 seed phrase creation via dice rolls, seamless integration with multisig wallets like Sparrow, Specter, BlueWallet, and Nunchuk, among others.
SeedSigner is fully Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) released under an MIT license for the core code. All hardware specs, software, and enclosure designs are publicly auditable on GitHub, allowing anyone to verify, modify, or build from source for maximum transparency and community-driven improvements.
While Raspberry Pi Zero’s CPU/GPU firmware and bootloader are proprietary and closed source software from Broadcom provided by the Raspberry Pi foundation, the design of the Seedsigner optimizes around managing those risks, such as letting the user provide their own entropy, and opting for no wireless communication modules like Bluetooth. Seedsigners are also “stateless”, designed to have no memory storage, instead booting fresh every time and requiring the user to input the seed that is used in the same session to sign transactions.
These security measures make the SeedSigner a popular hardware device for enthusiasts and advanced users; however, it presents some unique user experience challenges. Critics and competitors of the SeedSigner argue that manually inputting 12-word seeds into the device via key input or by scanning QR codes of private key backups puts user funds at risk, as it exposes the key material to cameras, which are ubiquitous in today’s digital age. The process can also be tedious and presents a user experience friction that stateful hardware wallets do not have, which is what makes SeedSigner’s collaboration with Satochip smartcards so special.
Satochip
Satochip, a Belgian startup founded in 2014 by Baudouin Collard and Bastien Taquet, focuses on affordable, open-source smartcard-centric hardware wallets. Their flagship products — Satochip (NFC hardware wallet), Satodime (bearer card), and Seedkeeper (a kind of password manager) — work with wallets like Sparrow and Electrum. Their Java Cards project is an open-source (AGPLv3) applet that turns cheap smartcards (e.g., YubiKey, SIMs) into secure, DIY BIP39 hardware wallets with EAL6+ security.
Taking a different approach to crypto key security, smartcards are stateful and store key material in encrypted formats, using some of the most advanced security chips in the market, often better than the technology used by credit cards and bank debit cards. The smartcards are NFC-enabled, leveraging the same near field communication technology that much of the world is used to today. An antenna that, while ranged, is considered so limited in its distance that advanced hardware wallet manufacturers like CoinKite have also integrated it into their highest-grade hardware wallet, the Coldcard Q.
The main downside of the smartcard approach to crypto security is the lack of a screen, which is needed for users to verify what they are signing. Satochip thus integrates with various mobile and desktop apps, as well as its own apps available on Android and iOS.
SeedSigner, through a community member fork of the firmware, is also now deeply integrated with Satochip, allowing users to flash the new smartcards directly from the SeedSigner, improving the experience of setting up the wallet, while also supporting a smartcard reader hardware expansion. The Satochip integrated SeedSigner firmware was created by YTCryptoGuide and can be found on his GitHub. The fork is not an official SeedSigner release.
The combination of these two open source projects seems like a match made in heaven, as users can now leverage the open source, consumer hardware nature of the SeedSigner, with the seed backup and ease of use nature of the smartcards, arguably improving the security and user experience of both projects.
One of the very valuable skills of the workshop, its corresponding website, and how-to guide teaches how to verify the authenticity of software installed on the hardware. Both the Seedsigner and Satochip applets are signed by the developers with their PGP keys. A hash or unique cryptographic ID of the software is created using an algorithm like SHA-256 (used also in Bitcoin mining) resulting in a string of digits, this string is unique to the exact software used to generate it — if one letter in the software is changed, the hash changes completely.
That hash is then signed by the developers with their PGP keys, which produces another unique and deterministic blob of data. The result is a chain of software signatures that ultimately let users know a known and reputable developer is acknowledging a specific software release as legitimate and authentic.
Knowing how to do this kind of verification can seem daunting at first, but it is actually quite easy and stands as the root of cypherpunk values and sovereignty in the digital age.
While the bears dominated price action early last week, the bulls managed to show strong support below $100,000. Bitcoin price dropped briefly below $100,000 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, but buyers stepped in each of those days to push the price back above $100,000, avoiding a daily close below this key level. A small weekend rally allowed the bitcoin price to reclaim the $104,000 support, closing at $104,700. Heading into this week, look for the $109,400 resistance level to keep a lid on things, with $111,000 looking like strong resistance if the price can go beyond there.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
The weekly 55 EMA at $99,000 provided strong support each time the price lost $100,000 last week. Bulls stepped up at this level, front-running the $96,000 bull market support level. Going forward, bulls will look for the 55 EMA to hold as support after such a large move off of this level last week.
As the bulls attempt to barge onward, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $109,400 should provide some resistance. Above here, bears will look for the daily point of control at $111,000 on the volume profile to hold back the bulls. Beyond this level, $116,000 sits as a gatekeeper for the bears, as closing above this level will flip bias back over to the bulls. Market structure looks decisively more bullish if the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $116,000 can be converted to support. Bulls may see a little resistance at $129,000 at the top of the broadening wedge pattern if they manage to reclaim $116,000 as support, but I would not expect $129,000 to hold for long if price does indeed reach it.
Outlook For This Week
Rumours of the US federal government shutdown ending this week are prevalent. If both parties can manage to sort out the filibuster, markets may get a boost this week. Bulls will look for the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement at $102,900 to hold as support on the daily chart early this week, to maintain upward movement. The daily chart may struggle to close above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $109,400 even if it gains some more momentum. Losing $100,000 this week would be very bearish and likely lead to a test of $96,000 at minimum, with potential for the price to crash even lower to $93,000 and possibly even $84,000 below that.
Market mood: Bearish – Despite the strength shown by the bulls last week, the outlook is still bearish if we are being honest here. A large red weekly candle close is still bearish.
The next few weeks The broadening wedge pattern we have been watching for weeks here is not broken yet. So there’s still a chance the bulls can bring the price back to the top trend line around $129,000. Bias is still in favor of the bears here, though, as currently, this pattern is still likely to break to the downside. $116,000 is the key level bulls need to re-establish as support to get the price moving back to new highs. While the government shutdown was not overly bearish on markets initially, the long duration of it is starting to take a toll. If the US federal government can indeed get back to work soon, it should provide a boost to the Nasdaq, and in turn, this should help provide supportive conditions for the bitcoin price to reclaim some key resistance levels. Any major macro bearish events incoming likely put an end to bitcoin’s bull market, so overall conditions need to remain stable to foster more upside.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.
Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.
Two years after clinching 1 BTC in a national competition of Bitcoin meetups at Bitcoin 2023, the Tampa Bay Bitcoin Meetup—now formalized as the nonprofit Bitcoin Bay Foundation—has channeled the prize into a thriving local ecosystem. Valued at roughly $25,000 to $30,000 at the time, that bitcoin has appreciated to over $100,000 amid bitcoin’s bull run, bootstrapping workshops, conferences, and community events that onboard businesses to the Bitcoin standard. The group’s president, Thomas Schlemmer, credits the win with supercharging efforts to create a “Bitcoin circular economy” in the Tampa Bay area.
“The Tampa Bay Bitcoin Meetup is the longest active running meetup, at least in the U.S. Some are saying the world. It’s been going on for 14 years,” Schlemmer told Bitcoin Magazine, tracing the meetup’s roots to 2011. What began as monthly social meetups eventually introduced developer-focused BitDevs sessions supporting the growing international movement of high-tech Bitcoin Developer events.
Bitcoin Bay Foundation hosts a dynamic lineup of events tailored to foster education and community in the Tampa Bay Bitcoin scene, with weekly meetups serving as the backbone—often expanding to five per month depending on programming and demand.
These include core recurring formats like beginner-friendly Bitcoin 101 sessions (averaging 20 attendees), social gatherings (around 25 participants for casual networking), and advanced BitDevs developer discussions, usually small groups diving into technical topics. Hands-on workshops rotate monthly or as requested, covering practical skills such as privacy in the digital age, peer-to-peer Bitcoin purchases, de-Googled phones, Bitcoin mining, node setup, and SeedSigner hardware builds. In these workshops, participants can expect interactive, step-by-step guidance from local experts to build confidence in self-custody and privacy tools.
The recent Sound Money Soirée gala drew around 100 people for a black-tie fundraiser, hosted in a historic bank vault, complete with silent auctions of products from all kinds of Bitcoin companies like Start9 and SeedSigner, raising $50,000 in one night, which goes to fund their various educational events. “It’s just kind of an excuse for people to get dressed up… and have fun… and show the local leaders there’s over 100 people here,” Schlemmer said of the gala, which brought in Bitcoin leaders from across the country.
The gala almost did not take place: “Our bank froze our account like a week and a half before,” as banks seem to do when you need them most. “We were actually able to pay the blackjack dealer, the DJ, and the photographer in bitcoin,” Schlemmer recalled, an omen-like reminder of the power of Bitcoin.
Earlier this summer, they also co-hosted the Bitcoin Day Tampa conference with the Bitcoin Day team, which brought in 150 attendees and had a full day of panels on policy, business adoption, and custody with speakers from across the industry, and even state senator Joe Gruters. “It was a regional conference, we filled out the Tampa River Center, which was good. That was about 150 people, and that was our first conference that we’ve ever thrown. So it went well.”
The group also partners with the University of Tampa, where the Bitcoin Club “The Bitcoin club there is the second largest non-Greek club on campus,” according to Schlemmer. They’ve supplied internships, guest lectures, and materials for the school, which now hosts a Bitcoin course. “We’ve been very close with them over the years, providing internships, getting kids placed in jobs, guest lectures, getting them educational materials,” he added.
The Tampa Bay meetups serve as an example of arguably the foundational institution of the industry, the Bitcoin meetup. For aspiring meetup organizers, Schlemmer stresses consistency: “Just consistency, you know, meeting at the same place at the same time or the same frequency, lets people know what to expect.” Building a core team with complementary skills—like accountants—is key, he added; “If you’re going to go the nonprofit route, then you need to make sure you have an accountant.”
However, successfully hosting Bitcoin meetups is far more than just accounting; the gap in knowledge and interests between new attendants and old ones can be a serious challenge. Staying Bitcoin-only wards off altcoin distractions, Schlemmer noted, “we just tell them upfront, ‘hey, we are a Bitcoin-only here.’” When crypto enthusiasts probe alternatives, the group simply points out that they prefer to focus on Bitcoin and that there are other crypto meetups in the area they can visit for those interests.
Boltz, the bitcoin-only instant swap exchange, is cornering a niche sector of the bitcoin industry and quickly becoming a favorite of advanced bitcoin users. Its fully open source tech stack, which is actually trust-less, unlocks a variety of possibilities for the industry, including a zero-custody risk bridge across Bitcoin layers.
Boltz exchange was founded in 2019 by Kilian and another pseudonymous co-founder, as a solution to managing liquidity in the Lightning Network for an early Bitcoin Defi project called OpenDex. Realizing quickly how complex lightning liquidity management was, the team ended up pivoting to the maintenance and polishing of Boltz, a liquidity service provider or LSP. Boltz has been self-funded ever since.
Boltz infrastructure supports multiple Bitcoin wallets today, such as BTCPay server via a plugin, Aqua wallet, Bull Bitcoin, and Breez, to name a few that are publicly known. As a result, Boltz is becoming an increasingly popular and respected company and open source project, an infrastructure cornerstone of Bitcoin’s Lightning Network today.
The Boltz Lightning node is one of the biggest, boasting on its website 759 Channels, 1022 Peers, 84.625 BTC worth of capacity, and 6.60 years since the oldest operating channel was opened, though these metrics are likely out of date. Their Lightning Network support lets advanced lightning node operators ‘balance their channels’ an otherwise complicated process that generally gets obfuscated away from end users of lighting powered Bitcoin wallets.
Boltz, however, is more than just an LSP; “We want to be the connecting tissue between all the Bitcoin layers.” Kilian told Bitcoin Magazine in an exclusive interview, discussing the vision and progress of the Boltz exchange so far. Initially built to support Bitcoin on-chain to Lightning Network swaps, today it supports Rootstock and the Liquid Network as well, the most popular ways of using bitcoin by far. To date, Botlz has only dealt in BTC, instead of integrating other blockchains or assets, perfecting its craft and locking in its niche.
In 2023, Boltz added support for the powerful and feature-rich Liquid Network, an open-source federated blockchain where federation members hold keys in a large Bitcoin multisig that collateralizes their L-BTC asset in full reserve. Liquid is one of the oldest two Bitcoin projects and was created by Adam Back and Blockstream. Despite having faster block times, a powerful set of programming scripts for smart contracts, and excellent privacy features such as encrypted transaction amounts on chain, Liquid has struggled to get adopted by centralized exchanges, making access to its feature set very difficult. Boltz integration opened a major bridge between on-chain bitcoin and the speed, programmability, and privacy of the Liquid Network, making wallets like Aqua and Bull Bitcoin possible.
Shy to share internal numbers, Killian told Bitcoin Magazine the integration “was quite the success story — it was taken on pretty well by the market, it just made sense for people.” Looking back on the market at the time, on-chain bitcoin fees were very high and were causing problems across the industry. Kilian noted, “We had a high fee environment. The main chain was hyper-expensive. So Liquid swaps clicked for a lot of people, and that’s how we really moved into this niche of connecting Bitcoin layers. A Bitcoin bridge for different Bitcoin layers, that’s really how this direction for us was fortified.”
In November of 2024, Boltz expanded into Rootstock support, a 2015 era layer two, little known among the English-speaking crowd, though very popular in Latin America, particularly Argentina, where many of its founders are from. Still shy to share internal numbers, Killian told Bitcoin Magazine that the integration with Rootstock has ‘gone well’, likely serving as one of the best ways to turn on-chain bitcoin into rBTC, an essential asset of the Rootstock ecosystem. Rootstock’s claim to fame is bringing to Bitcoin the integration of an Ethereum-compatible “EVM”, the smart contracting language on top of which most of DeFi is built across the crypto ecosystem today.
The most interesting feature of Boltz, however, is its use of Atomic Swaps, an ancient “Holy Grail” of Bitcoin theory that can be traced back to the earliest discussions in the Bitcoin Talk forum. Atomic Swaps make it possible for users to trade against Boltz without having to trust the Boltz team or company not to steal the money, a luxury in finance across history. All centralized exchanges require such trust, as do most instant swap exchanges in the market today. Boltz integration with this sophisticated type of smart contract means that anyone can fundamentally run a local instance of Boltz and be a reliable trade partner of the public, without the need to bootstrap a brand or a reputation.
But how do Atomic Swaps work? Leveraging the public nature of blockchains, Atomic Swaps function around a shared secret. This secret is used to lock the funds during the trade between two parties. For one party to claim the funds of the other, they must publish this secret to the blockchain, allowing the counterparty to do the same, resulting in the ‘atomic’ execution of the trade.
This protocol solves a key issue of trust in business. Who sends the money first? Who sends the goods first? Whoever does, takes a certain amount of risk as it allows the counterparty to take the goods and run. Atomic Swaps eliminate that risk entirely. They essentially allow for the creation of a non-custodial crypto exchange. Though the implementation details and user experience vary, as some blockchains do not have the right script or smart contracting tools to support Atomic Swaps, while fiat is — so far — ruled out entirely as bank transfers are almost always reversible, undoing atomicity.
Looking out into the future of Boltz and the programmability of Bitcoin as money for the digital age, Kilian said, “I think we will see a new breed of layer two projects launching early next year. So, probably stuff that you and I have never heard about, but there are so many projects, so much stuff. So this is a really interesting space to be in. And the difficulty, the quest, will be to separate the good from the bad.”
Lava, a global platform for bitcoin-backed loans, today announced a $200M funding round and the launch of a new product, a bitcoin line of credit (BLOC). The product offers similar functionality to a securities-backed loan or home equity line of credit, but allows users the ability to flexibly borrow using bitcoin as collateral without the monthly payments or term limits common in the bitcoin-backed loans market today.
According to a press release shared with Bitcoin Magazine, the $200M financing “includes a combination of venture and debt capital” and brings two new high-profile angels on board: Anthony Pompliano, Bitcoin investor and entrepreneur, and Eric Jackson, activist public markets investor and founder of EMJ Capital.
“I’m thrilled to be joining Lava as an investor,” says Jackson. “Shehzan and his team are world-class, and they’ve been incredibly innovative on the product side. Not only is their revolving line of credit a first in the industry, but they’ve also managed to secure the lowest borrowing rates for their users— beating the rates of much older incumbents in the space. This is hands-down the best product in the market, and Lava is setting a new standard for bitcoin-backed loans.”
As a result of the new fundraising, Lava now offers what may be the lowest fixed interest rates available in the bitcoin lending market, “starting at just 5%” for year-long durations. “The interest rate will update yearly, and you can simply leave your line of credit open to refinance at the new rate.” According to their announcement blog. Lava’s line of credit functions more like a revolving account: users can borrow, repay, and borrow again at any time, with the interest rates only being marked for the amounts borrowed, not the total capacity of the loan.
“We believe that this is the best possible borrowing experience for bitcoin holders. You can get dollars instantly, you don’t have to worry about monthly payments or loan durations, and you get access to the lowest fixed interest rates,” said CEO Shehzan Maredia, adding, “This has been their most requested product and will be Lava’s core focus moving forward.”
Beyond the 5% fixed interest rate, the line of credit carries “a capital charge equal to 2% of the largest outstanding balance you have on your line of credit during the year,” as explained in their FAQ. For example, if the user’s loan balance reaches $5,000 at some point throughout the borrowing period, the capital charge for the entire year is $100. Bringing the total cost of a bitcoin-backed loan to roughly 7% yearly, a rate that remains very competitive within the bitcoin-backed loans market, as many companies also have similar fees on top of the interest rate.
Loans can be up to 50% of the total USD value of the bitcoin balance of the Lava app, a powerful and modern closed-source self-custody wallet. Most of the loan products and USD payment rails can be accessed without personal information, making Lava stand out among its competitors, placing it somewhere between pure DeFi and more modern crypto-savvy financial institutions. Lava also has a “Liquidation protection” feature, which can draw from the bitcoin balance deposited into the app and add it to the collateral account to protect users from liquidation in the case of extreme price volatility in bitcoin.
It was a very disappointing week for bitcoin price action last week. Monday saw a nice move up into resistance, but that momentum quickly faded as bitcoin retraced the bullish move to end up right back down at the lows by Thursday. The market was a mixed bag as the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut was expected, but Chairman Powell put a damper on expectations going forward, stating that there were no plans to continue with another interest rate cut in December’s FOMC meeting, which the market had been expecting. Bitcoin closed the week out at $110,591, which wasn’t entirely bearish, but was not confidence-inspiring for the bulls either.
Key Support and Resistance Levels Now
The $106,900 support level held again last week at the 0.146 Fibonacci Retracement, providing a nice bounce for the bulls on Thursday into the weekly close on Sunday. Bulls do not want this level to be tested again going forward, as it would be more likely to fail on the next test. Losing this level is very likely to lead to losing $100,000 and a test of long-term support at $96,000. We do have potential support at $104,000 before there, but this level has been tested twice already, so it would be a big ask for this level to hold as support once again.
The bearish price action last week has only created additional resistance levels for the bulls to overcome here. Price closed last week below the 21-EMA, which sits right around $111,000 entering this week. The volume profile is also showing us a point of control (POC) at $111,000 as well. If price manages to climb above $111,000, we will look to $114,600 as the next resistance level. Closing above $114,600 opens up $122,000 as the final hurdle to overcome for the bulls to take back control of the action.
Outlook For This Week
Bitcoin is likely to break support to the downside this week unless buyers can step up in a big way, with strong buying volume. Look for $106,900 support to be lost if the price starts closing below $108,000. $104,000 should provide a bounce below there, but the $96,000 support is likely to be tested if $104,000 doesn’t hold for long. Bulls will likely need some sort of macro catalyst this week to save themselves from lower prices, as the daily chart is looking very bearish heading into this week. As of Monday morning, it appears bitcoin is losing the $106,900 level and will test $104,000 or lower.
Market mood: Bearish – The bulls’ hopes were beaten back this week when the price failed to hold above the $115,500 resistance level. The onus is still on the bulls to take out some upper resistance levels to try to swing bias back in their favor.
The next few weeks Bitcoin is likely to take a backseat to the Nasdaq price action going forward. It will be very difficult to sustain any kind of upward movement if the Nasdaq continues to correct lower over the coming weeks. So, bitcoin bulls will be hoping for the Nasdaq to resume its uptrend to help them out. Bulls will also be looking out for the Consumer Price Index, due to be released on November 13, for an improvement from last month’s lukewarm inflation numbers. Cooler inflation data should tilt the odds in favor of another interest rate cut in the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Unless the bulls get a lot of help here, the bears should remain in control for the foreseeable future.
Terminology Guide:
Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.
Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.
Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.
Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support. The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.
EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).
Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.
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