EXPERT OPINION – The recently leaked 28-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine is nothing short of an appeasement that satisfies the maximalist demands of the aggressor in the conflict, Russian President Vladimir Putin. This is nothing short of the side on the verge of victory (eg, the free world) conceding to the side on the verge of defeat (Putin, the leader of the anti-west coalition). Sadly, it comes at a time when the situation on the battlefield is more or less a draw, both sides are effectively attacking energy infrastructure, and Russia’s economy is moving toward recession.

According to Russian data, third Quarter GDP growth in Russia was 0.6%. The expectation is that Q4 data will show the beginning of a recession. Sberbank has just decided to let 20% of their workforce go. Russia has for the first time, begun to sell gold reserves, presumably to make up for lost revenue from the recently imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Russia’s wartime transition to a command economy is not sustainable with a declining workforce sapped by the loss of young men sacrificed in Ukraine and those who have voted with their feet by leaving Putin’s kleptocracy.

The key points of the 28-point plan amount to nothing less than surrender by Ukraine and make in vain the sacrifices made by their valiant soldiers and citizens in their three plus years of war of full-scale war since Russia’s deadly invasion.

The agreement will be remembered in history with the same ignominy of the Munich Agreement of 1938 and will have the same consequence of setting the stage for a larger war to come.

Perhaps most egregious in the terms of the draft agreement is the re-establishment of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the establishment of Russian as the official language. This indignity on top of the kidnapping of hundreds - if not thousands - of Ukrainian children to Russia and the forced conscription into the Russian army of men from Russian occupied territory. Then, of course, there is the massacre of innocent citizens by Russian soldiers in places like Bucha, all of which will go unaccounted for under the draft agreement. No judgement at Nuremberg for Russian war criminals.

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The plan U.S. officials have negotiated is nothing more than cultural genocide against the people of Ukraine. That the U.S. would be part of an agreement that almost certainly would result in the arrest, deportation and incarceration of a generation of brave Ukrainians who have bravely resisted Putin’s aggression is simply unthinkable.

Mr. Trump, every member of your national security team should be required to watch episode nine of the brilliant HBO series Band of Brothers. The episode’s title is “Why We Fight” and the reasons for standing up to autocracy and evil portrayed in that episode are perfectly applicable to the situation today with the free world standing strong against the aggression of a malevolent dictator.

The Trump Administration’s desire to end the violence in Ukraine is commendable, but not at the price of setting the stage for the next war by giving victory to the aggressor. The men who reportedly negotiated the key points of the agreement have no experience dealing with Russia or Russians of the KGB ilk. The promises of “peace” offered by the Russian side are a chimera at best. Putin and the gang of thieves in his government know perfectly well how to manipulate representatives of the character of Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s real estate specialist now in charge of negotiating with Russia over Ukraine. Perhaps those negotiators are working with the idea of “Commander’s intent” that the President believes an agreement can be reached and counted upon with a counter-party like Putin. This is a serious misjudgment with serious consequences.

Those who have studied Putin for decades, understand clearly that he wants nothing but the destruction of the United States, our system of government and the set of ideals for which we stand. This is core to his beliefs. Putin and his security services will do everything they can to undermine the United States. One should not be surprised if the Russian services do not use every opportunity in the context of the Epstein revelations to attack every angle of the political spectrum in the U.S. that they can, including President Trump.

President Trump is now facing the most significant foreign and national security moment of his presidency. It appears the representatives he has chosen to negotiate with the Russian side have left him in a position to be remembered forever in history as the Chamberlain of the 21st century. Mr. Trump would do well to recognize that history does not remember Neville Chamberlain for any achievements in his political career in economic or domestic policy in Great Britain. He is remembered solely for Munich and "peace in our time". Mr. Trump is setting himself up to be remembered by history similarly. Sadly, it could also be the legacy of the country that was once the pillar of strength of the free world.

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CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING -- President Donald Trump said Monday that he is moving forward with plans to arrange a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in what is being seen as the next crucial step toward bringing an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A meeting at the White House on Monday with President Zelensky and senior European leaders provided a strong show of solidarity, and a striking visual contrast to President Trump’s one-on-one meeting on Friday with President Putin in Alaska, which ended earlier than scheduled and without any public announcements of progress.

On Monday as the White House welcomed Zelensky, along with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Finnish President Alexander Stubb, European Union President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the images signaled a much stronger show of unity among those calling for an end to the killing and a sign that the ball is landing squarely in Putin’s court.

"This looks to me like the beginning of negotiations,” Ambassador Kurt Volker who served as U.S. Special Envoy for Ukraine negotiations from 2017-2019, and as Ambassador to NATO from 2008-2009, told The Cipher Brief. “Putin set out his maximalist position. Now, Ukraine and the European leaders are setting out a much more modest and realistic one and calling for a trilateral meeting to discuss.”

Even though a scheduled press conference between Presidents Trump and Putin was cancelled after the two leaders met on Friday, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff characterized the meeting to CNN as a win, saying that the ball had moved forward on convincing Russia to agree to “Article 5-like protections”, describing the guarantees as “game changing.”

Article 5 under the NATO charter, provides for collective defense, meaning an attack against one NATO member can trigger a response by any NATO member - something that has been a non-starter for the Russian president since Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The idea of a U.S.-supported Article 5-type measure is something that the Trump administration has said will largely be shouldered by the Europeans – with U.S. support – and it signals a lot more pressure on the Russian President to concede on some of his most adamant demands to date.

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“Putin is under a lot of pressure,” former senior CIA Officer Glenn Corn told The Cipher Brief. “He's under stress. He understands that he doesn't have the cards.”

Even though the Russian President was not present during talks with Zelensky and European leaders, President Trump made a point to pause talks in order to call the Russian leader, according to European sources. A follow-up meeting between Putin and Zelensky would signal a strong win for President Trump. Not so much for President Putin.

“Putin is unlikely to accept such a meeting if his pre-conditions are not met,” Ambassador Volker told The Cipher Brief. “So, this is just positioning. The real issue will be what happens to Russian supply lines, increasingly targeted by Ukraine, and the Russian economy, which is faltering. I still expect Putin to go along with a ceasefire in place by the end of the year."

In addition to future security guarantees, another key issue on the table is that of land and just how much Ukrainian territory might be ceded to Russia as part of a deal to end the killing.

“Russia is chiefly looking to legitimize territorial gains obtained by force and Ukraine is looking for security guarantees if they are ever to agree to give up territory,” said former 6-time CIA station chief Ralph Goff in an exclusive Cipher Brief interview. “While the Ukrainians will hardly be ready to cede any territory without a Russian boot on it, Zelensky can likely give up territory but only if Russia accepts the Article 5-type" security guarantees.”

While an unpopular realization in Kyiv, some three and a half years into this war, Ukraine lacks the manpower to retake territory that’s been lost to Russia.

“Indeed, they are not able to prevent continuing incremental gains by the Russians albeit at huge cost to the Russians,” said Goff. “Thus, Zelensky can tell his countrymen "Look if you won't allow me to cede territory already lost to the Russians then I need to draft your teenagers to try and get it back."

Some experts, who have long advocated for more – not less – U.S. involvement in helping Ukraine are concerned about just how much land Kyiv will be forced to give up and how that may signal a win for Putin.

“The U.S. and our Allies have not actually even tried to help Ukraine win this war,” said retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (Ret.), who served as NATO Senior Mentor for Logistics. “We never declared it as an objective or created or implemented policies that would make it so – we’ve barely touched Russia’s ability to export oil and gas and we’ve not touched frozen Russian assets, nor moved all of the military resources needed to help them win.”

Still, there is hope that the solidarity seen at the White House on Monday will be enough to pressure Putin to a deal.

“We shouldn't forget that Monday’s meeting didn't happen without White House concurrence,” said Corn. “They were guests of the United States Government and of the President of the United States. So, Europe, the U.S. and NATO seem unified in a way that we haven't seen in a while.”

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