Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility after a sharp drop from the $97,000 region to nearly $87,000 in just a few days, shaking market confidence and forcing bulls into defense mode. The pullback comes as geopolitical tension between the United States and the European Union escalated this week, with trade-war rhetoric returning to the spotlight and uncertainty rising around potential retaliatory measures tied to broader disputes, including the situation surrounding Greenland.

Despite the downside pressure, on-chain behavior suggests the market structure is not collapsing, but shifting. Since January, Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate through corrective phases, absorbing spot supply even as price action weakened.

At the same time, retail investors appear to be stepping back after the drawdown, reducing activity and participation across the market. This divergence highlights a familiar dynamic: short-term fear tends to push smaller traders out, while larger holders use volatility to build exposure at discounted levels.

With price now stabilizing near a major psychological zone, Bitcoin is entering a critical stretch where demand must return to confirm whether this move was a temporary shakeout or the start of deeper weakness.

Whales Keep Accumulating as Bitcoin Fights to Hold $90K

Bitcoin is now attempting to hold above the $90,000 level as volatility remains elevated and traders look for signs of stabilization after the recent swing lower. Price action has become increasingly reactive to macro headlines, and the $90K zone is acting as a key psychological threshold that could determine whether the market consolidates or extends the correction.

In this environment, short-term sentiment can flip quickly, especially as liquidity thins and intraday moves become sharper across both spot and derivatives markets.

However, a CryptoQuant report suggests the underlying structure has not broken down. Even after geopolitical risks intensified and broader risk appetite deteriorated, whale holdings have not declined on a monthly basis.

Instead, large holders have continued increasing exposure, reinforcing the view that the current phase reflects structural accumulation rather than broad distribution. This matters because sustained whale buying during drawdowns typically implies supply is being absorbed at lower levels, reducing the probability of a cascading sell-off driven purely by spot sellers.

In practical terms, the market has shaken, but whale conviction has not. While retail participants often reduce exposure during periods of uncertainty, larger investors tend to operate with longer time horizons, stepping in when volatility forces weak hands out.

If this accumulation trend persists, it can help establish a stronger base below price and create conditions for a more stable recovery once demand improves. For now, Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether $90K holds under continued macro pressure.

Price Action Details: Consolidation Continues

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 level after last week’s volatility sent price sharply lower from the prior range above $100,000. The weekly chart shows BTC holding a higher-low structure since the November breakdown, but momentum remains fragile as sellers continue to defend overhead resistance zones. After reclaiming the mid-$80,000s, price pushed back toward $90,000, yet the latest weekly close suggests hesitation and a lack of strong follow-through from buyers.

From a trend perspective, BTC is trading below the short-term moving average, which has rolled over and now acts as dynamic resistance. The rebound has been constructive, but it remains corrective until the price can break and hold above that blue trend line. Meanwhile, the longer-term averages are still rising, reflecting that the broader cycle is not broken, but that the market is transitioning into a slower consolidation phase.

Volume also confirms this uncertainty. Sell-side spikes marked the initial breakdown, while recent recovery candles have not shown the same level of aggressive demand. For bulls, holding the $88,000–$90,000 zone is critical to prevent a deeper pullback. A clean weekly close above $92,000 would improve the short-term outlook and open the door for a stronger recovery leg.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 level as markets react to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union, with fresh concerns tied to geopolitical friction around Greenland. The renewed risk-off tone pressured equities and crypto alike, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global headlines when uncertainty spikes and investors reduce exposure across high-beta assets.

Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests a deeper shift is taking place inside the Bitcoin market. A report by analyst MorenoDV highlights that, for the first time in history, “new whales” now account for a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. Realized Cap tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement, meaning this change signals that a substantial portion of BTC supply has recently changed hands at higher prices.

This transfer of influence matters because it reshapes short-term supply dynamics. When newer large holders dominate realized capital, market behavior can become more reactive, with marginal supply increasingly controlled by investors who entered later in the cycle and may be more sensitive to volatility. As Bitcoin battles to reclaim $90,000, this evolving whale structure may help explain why rebounds feel less stable and why selling pressure can reappear quickly during macro-driven pullbacks.

New Whales Now Dictate Bitcoin’s Short-Term Direction

Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing coins at the price of their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales—short-term holder whales holding more than 1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days—it signals that a meaningful share of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices. In other words, market control is moving away from experienced, cycle-tested holders and toward capital that arrived late in the trend.

This transition helps explain Bitcoin’s current behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot price continues trading below that level. As a result, this cohort is estimated to be carrying roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses. These losses are not just paper drawdowns—they shape decision-making and increase sensitivity to volatility, especially during sharp corrections.

On-chain realized PnL data suggests that since the market peak, new whales have driven the bulk of realized losses. During the recent drawdown, they repeatedly sold into weakness and used brief rebounds to exit positions. Reflecting risk management rather than conviction.

Old whales tell the opposite story. With a realized price around $40,000, long-term whales remain deeply profitable. Their activity has been limited relative to the flows coming from new whales. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is being dictated by this newer, more fragile whale cohort.

Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Support

Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness after losing the $90,000 psychological level, with price now trading near $88,300 on the daily chart. The structure reflects a clear downtrend from the late-2025 highs, followed by a failed attempt to recover. After a sharp drop in November, BTC stabilized and built a short consolidation base, but the rebound into early January lacked follow-through and quickly turned into another rejection.

From a technical perspective, BTC remains trapped below its major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The shorter-term average has rolled over sharply, while the broader trend line above continues to slope downward. Signaling that momentum remains capped, and sellers are still in control on rallies. The recent bounce toward the mid-$90K region was rejected aggressively, confirming that overhead supply remains heavy and buyers are not yet strong enough to flip the trend.

Volume patterns support this narrative. The biggest spikes occurred during the selloff leg, showing forced activity and distribution. While the most recent recovery attempts have been met with weaker participation. As long as Bitcoin stays below the $90K–$92K zone, price action suggests the market is still searching for a stable bottom. The downside risk remains elevated if fear accelerates across the broader crypto market.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

ONDO has lost over 65% of its value since October as heavy selling pressure continues to dominate the altcoin market. While Bitcoin has shown relative stability at key levels, many mid-cap tokens like ONDO have struggled to find consistent demand. This drawdown has pushed sentiment toward the bearish side, especially as traders remain cautious around liquidity events and token unlocks.

Still, some analysts argue that the current dip is not purely a sign of weakness. A CryptoQuant report explains that the headlines may scream “price drop,” but the on-chain data is pointing toward “opportunity” instead. The focus is now on ONDO’s massive 1.94 billion token unlock scheduled for January 18, 2026. Historically, unlocks can trigger panic selling, as investors anticipate higher circulating supply and additional distribution pressure.

However, this time may be different. The report suggests that larger market participants are actively positioning through the decline, using the fear as a liquidity window. Rather than treating the unlock as a reason to exit, the data hints that “smart money” is stepping in to absorb supply while retail confidence remains fragile. That sets the stage for a critical test.

Smart Money Absorption Signals Are Building

The CryptoQuant report outlines why larger investors appear to be ignoring the noise around ONDO’s decline. The first signal is the “whale shield.” Despite the sharp correction since the December 2024 peak, Spot Average Order Size continues to be dominated by “Big Whale Orders,” shown through consistent green dots on the chart. This implies institutions are using weakness to absorb liquidity, with the $0.35–$0.40 zone acting as a primary accumulation range.

Second, ONDO has officially entered a Taker Buy Dominant phase. The 90-day Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) remains positive and continues rising, showing that market buy pressure has outweighed market sells for months. This is important because takers represent aggressive participants who buy at the ask without waiting for better entries.

The report frames this alignment as “taker alpha.” When large whale orders and aggressive taker buying strengthen while the price falls, it often reflects absorption. If this continues through the unlock, ONDO could be building a coiled-spring setup for a 2026 RWA breakout.

ONDO Extends Downtrend as Bulls Defend Key Demand Zone

ONDO remains under heavy pressure after a prolonged decline that has erased most of its 2025 upside. The 3-day chart shows a clear breakdown from the former consolidation range near $0.90–$1.00, where price repeatedly failed to reclaim momentum during the second half of the year. Once sellers forced a decisive move lower, the market quickly transitioned into a steep downtrend marked by weak bounces and consistent lower highs.

At the time of writing, ONDO is trading near $0.33 after slipping below the $0.40 handle, a psychological level that previously acted as temporary support. This drop places the token deep below its key moving averages, with the shorter trend lines rolling over and acting as overhead resistance. The failed recovery attempts throughout late 2025 confirm that sellers have stayed in control, while buyers have struggled to generate enough volume to shift the trend.

However, price is now approaching a potential demand zone around $0.30–$0.35, where volatility historically increases and dip buyers may try to step in. If this area fails, the chart suggests downside could accelerate. Still, a strong defense could open the door for a stabilization phase before any meaningful rebound.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is consolidating above the $2 mark after a volatile stretch, as the market begins to wake up and traders watch for the next directional move. While price action remains relatively stable, on-chain data suggests that selling pressure from large holders may be easing, creating a more constructive short-term backdrop for bulls.

A report from Arab Chain on CryptoQuant highlights a sharp decline in whale transfers to Binance over the past few days. Data from the XRP Ledger shows that the Whale Transfer Flow (30DMA) dropped to 48 million XRP before rebounding slightly to 56.1 million XRP, marking the lowest levels recorded since 2021. This metric tracks the average volume of large wallet transfers moving into exchanges, and it is often used as a proxy for whale distribution and sell-side intent.

Historically, when whale inflows surge, it tends to signal that large investors are positioning to offload holdings, adding supply to the market and increasing downside risk. However, when these flows compress to unusually low levels, it typically reflects reduced urgency to sell, which can help stabilize price during consolidation phases.

With XRP holding above $2, this shift in exchange-bound whale activity suggests the market may be entering a quieter accumulation window, where any breakout will likely depend on fresh demand rather than panic-driven liquidity.

Whale Inflows Cool Off as XRP Holds Key Support

What makes this reading especially notable is that it comes while XRP remains relatively stable on the price chart. Averaging around $2.15 during the same period. Instead of seeing whales rush to exchanges into strength, the data suggests large holders are choosing to stay positioned. Investors may prefer to hold XRP rather than actively distribute it into the market.

This type of behavior is often associated with “quiet” market phases. Where price compresses and liquidity thins out, setting the stage for a larger move once demand returns. When exchange-bound whale transfers fade, it typically means fewer coins are immediately available for sale. This can reduce resistance on small upside pushes and keep downside moves more contained.

Historical context adds weight to the signal. In 2021, the last time whale inflows to exchanges reached similarly low levels, XRP was entering periods that later developed into stronger upward trends. Back then, supply on exchanges stayed constrained while demand gradually built, allowing price to respond more efficiently once momentum shifted.

For now, the current decline in whale inflows is easing short-term sell pressure and improving the supply setup. If buyers step in with stronger volume, XRP may be better positioned to break out of consolidation without facing heavy distribution from large wallets.

XRP Momentum Stalls Under Key Averages

XRP is trading near $2.06 on the daily chart after weeks of choppy consolidation. Showing a market that is stabilizing but still lacks strong trend conviction. Price has held above the psychological $2 level, which has served as a short-term floor following the late-2025 selloff that dragged XRP toward the $1.80–$1.90 zone. However, the rebound remains technically fragile, as XRP is still trading below key moving averages that continue to slope downward.

The blue and green trend lines, which represent medium-term resistance, sit above the price and highlight how sellers have defended rallies since November. XRP’s recent push higher was met with rejection near the $2.30–$2.35 area. Reinforcing that demand has not yet been strong enough to reclaim higher levels and shift the market structure bullish.

Volume has also remained relatively muted outside of isolated spikes, suggesting the market is not seeing aggressive expansion in participation. For bulls, the immediate objective is building acceptance above $2.20 and flipping the descending averages into support. If XRP loses $2, downside pressure could quickly return toward the $1.90 area.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com