Bitcoin is facing renewed volatility after a sharp drop from the $97,000 region to nearly $87,000 in just a few days, shaking market confidence and forcing bulls into defense mode. The pullback comes as geopolitical tension between the United States and the European Union escalated this week, with trade-war rhetoric returning to the spotlight and uncertainty rising around potential retaliatory measures tied to broader disputes, including the situation surrounding Greenland.

Despite the downside pressure, on-chain behavior suggests the market structure is not collapsing, but shifting. Since January, Bitcoin whales have continued to accumulate through corrective phases, absorbing spot supply even as price action weakened.

At the same time, retail investors appear to be stepping back after the drawdown, reducing activity and participation across the market. This divergence highlights a familiar dynamic: short-term fear tends to push smaller traders out, while larger holders use volatility to build exposure at discounted levels.

With price now stabilizing near a major psychological zone, Bitcoin is entering a critical stretch where demand must return to confirm whether this move was a temporary shakeout or the start of deeper weakness.

Whales Keep Accumulating as Bitcoin Fights to Hold $90K

Bitcoin is now attempting to hold above the $90,000 level as volatility remains elevated and traders look for signs of stabilization after the recent swing lower. Price action has become increasingly reactive to macro headlines, and the $90K zone is acting as a key psychological threshold that could determine whether the market consolidates or extends the correction.

In this environment, short-term sentiment can flip quickly, especially as liquidity thins and intraday moves become sharper across both spot and derivatives markets.

However, a CryptoQuant report suggests the underlying structure has not broken down. Even after geopolitical risks intensified and broader risk appetite deteriorated, whale holdings have not declined on a monthly basis.

Instead, large holders have continued increasing exposure, reinforcing the view that the current phase reflects structural accumulation rather than broad distribution. This matters because sustained whale buying during drawdowns typically implies supply is being absorbed at lower levels, reducing the probability of a cascading sell-off driven purely by spot sellers.

In practical terms, the market has shaken, but whale conviction has not. While retail participants often reduce exposure during periods of uncertainty, larger investors tend to operate with longer time horizons, stepping in when volatility forces weak hands out.

If this accumulation trend persists, it can help establish a stronger base below price and create conditions for a more stable recovery once demand improves. For now, Bitcoin’s next move depends on whether $90K holds under continued macro pressure.

Price Action Details: Consolidation Continues

Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 level after last week’s volatility sent price sharply lower from the prior range above $100,000. The weekly chart shows BTC holding a higher-low structure since the November breakdown, but momentum remains fragile as sellers continue to defend overhead resistance zones. After reclaiming the mid-$80,000s, price pushed back toward $90,000, yet the latest weekly close suggests hesitation and a lack of strong follow-through from buyers.

From a trend perspective, BTC is trading below the short-term moving average, which has rolled over and now acts as dynamic resistance. The rebound has been constructive, but it remains corrective until the price can break and hold above that blue trend line. Meanwhile, the longer-term averages are still rising, reflecting that the broader cycle is not broken, but that the market is transitioning into a slower consolidation phase.

Volume also confirms this uncertainty. Sell-side spikes marked the initial breakdown, while recent recovery candles have not shown the same level of aggressive demand. For bulls, holding the $88,000–$90,000 zone is critical to prevent a deeper pullback. A clean weekly close above $92,000 would improve the short-term outlook and open the door for a stronger recovery leg.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 level as markets react to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union, with fresh concerns tied to geopolitical friction around Greenland. The renewed risk-off tone pressured equities and crypto alike, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global headlines when uncertainty spikes and investors reduce exposure across high-beta assets.

Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests a deeper shift is taking place inside the Bitcoin market. A report by analyst MorenoDV highlights that, for the first time in history, “new whales” now account for a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. Realized Cap tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement, meaning this change signals that a substantial portion of BTC supply has recently changed hands at higher prices.

This transfer of influence matters because it reshapes short-term supply dynamics. When newer large holders dominate realized capital, market behavior can become more reactive, with marginal supply increasingly controlled by investors who entered later in the cycle and may be more sensitive to volatility. As Bitcoin battles to reclaim $90,000, this evolving whale structure may help explain why rebounds feel less stable and why selling pressure can reappear quickly during macro-driven pullbacks.

New Whales Now Dictate Bitcoin’s Short-Term Direction

Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing coins at the price of their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales—short-term holder whales holding more than 1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days—it signals that a meaningful share of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices. In other words, market control is moving away from experienced, cycle-tested holders and toward capital that arrived late in the trend.

This transition helps explain Bitcoin’s current behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot price continues trading below that level. As a result, this cohort is estimated to be carrying roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses. These losses are not just paper drawdowns—they shape decision-making and increase sensitivity to volatility, especially during sharp corrections.

On-chain realized PnL data suggests that since the market peak, new whales have driven the bulk of realized losses. During the recent drawdown, they repeatedly sold into weakness and used brief rebounds to exit positions. Reflecting risk management rather than conviction.

Old whales tell the opposite story. With a realized price around $40,000, long-term whales remain deeply profitable. Their activity has been limited relative to the flows coming from new whales. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is being dictated by this newer, more fragile whale cohort.

Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Support

Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness after losing the $90,000 psychological level, with price now trading near $88,300 on the daily chart. The structure reflects a clear downtrend from the late-2025 highs, followed by a failed attempt to recover. After a sharp drop in November, BTC stabilized and built a short consolidation base, but the rebound into early January lacked follow-through and quickly turned into another rejection.

From a technical perspective, BTC remains trapped below its major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The shorter-term average has rolled over sharply, while the broader trend line above continues to slope downward. Signaling that momentum remains capped, and sellers are still in control on rallies. The recent bounce toward the mid-$90K region was rejected aggressively, confirming that overhead supply remains heavy and buyers are not yet strong enough to flip the trend.

Volume patterns support this narrative. The biggest spikes occurred during the selloff leg, showing forced activity and distribution. While the most recent recovery attempts have been met with weaker participation. As long as Bitcoin stays below the $90K–$92K zone, price action suggests the market is still searching for a stable bottom. The downside risk remains elevated if fear accelerates across the broader crypto market.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com