LoginNew year, new opportunities? Here’s where contractors should focus in 2026
Interview transcript:
Terry Gerton Deltek has a new report out that’s looking ahead for federal contractor intelligence for 2026. But before we look forward, I want to look back a little bit. When you think of everything that happened in the contracting space in 2025, what stands out for you as the biggest trends?
Kevin Plexico Well, chaos reigns supreme this past year, for sure. And what I find just super interesting is that some companies happen to find themselves in really good places and align to the goals of the new administration and did really well. And others that happened to be in sort of the wrong place at the wrong time had profound impact. I think 2025 was a year where companies had to really take stock of the organizations that they’re selling to and their offerings to make sure they’re aligned to the goals of the administration and the mission that the government agencies have been asked to take on by that administration. That’s probably, to me, the biggest change. There’s been so much movement of money, in some cases money coming out of certain agencies. We’ve all heard about Agency for International Development and Department of State and Education. But then you look at organizations like the VA, DHS, and DoD that have continued to do really well. So, a lot of haves and have-nots this year, and I think for companies it’s just trying to figure out, based on this new administration, where should we really be aiming to be able to capitalize on it going forward?
Terry Gerton Every administration comes in with different priorities, but it seems like this one was able to make the pendulum swing really fast, and that may have caught companies off guard. What are some of the hard conversations that had to happen inside those boardrooms?
Kevin Plexico Well, early on, it was all about DOGE and the DOGE organization really putting some unprecedented pressure on some vendors. I mean, some of the letters I saw sent to professional services companies and some of demands that were made of value-added resellers were not anything I’ve seen a federal agency communicate to a vendor that was otherwise performing to the jobs that they were asked to do. And I think it’s, in some respects, a bit surreal that the administration was asking companies to identify wasteful spending. It’s just an awkward situation to be in if you have a customer, and the customer already hired you to do the work, and you’re now being asked to identify where there’s wasteful spending in that and sort of serve up cuts. So I think that was the early part of the year. We did see that start to sunset a bit and fade as we got into the summertime. But then all of a sudden, all eyes were turning to appropriations and funding for 2026. And we all know where that’s landed, which it hasn’t. We’re still waiting for full-year 2026, with just a couple agency exceptions. We bought some time ending the shutdown, which was, as you know, the longest on record. But there’s nothing to say that we might not have another shutdown here at the end of January. I still think where there’s that bit of uncertainty, the one silver lining this past year for the contracting community is the One Big Beautiful Bill, just because it had so much opportunity in it for contractors that really cut across the gamut of aerospace, defense, professional services, training, architecture, engineering, construction. There was literally something in there for everybody, but it does require really an honest assessment by a company to figure out, okay, how do we get after this? Because that might not be in the agencies that they’re used to doing business in.
Terry Gerton Right. And a lot of those funds haven’t been dispersed yet. So they’re still maybe in the RFP or RFQ stage. This unpredictability of funding flows is something you don’t normally see in government contracts. Everything from stop-work orders and termination notices earlier in the year to unpaid bills at the end of the fiscal year and the CR. Has that caused the GovCon community to sort of re-evaluate and re-adjust their planning for predictable cash flows?
Kevin Plexico I think this year, while it was a record-setting shutdown, is not an unusual year in that we don’t have a line of sight on what line appropriations are going to get done. I think industry has become used to that scenario. And while shutdowns are certainly not good for anyone, they’re usually relatively short-lived because of what happens. The pain gets so severe that finally Congress is like, we’re inflicting a lot of pain on rank-and-file Americans, we need to resolve this. I’m hoping that cooler heads will prevail the next time that this comes around. What I think is perhaps different this time versus what we’ve seen, say, the last decade or so is we’ve always had a bipartisan budget agreement or resolution that sort of set the top line that appropriators were negotiating towards. I think we’ve had that literally for about a decade, since back during the Budget Control Act, and we don’t have that for ’26. So there was no goalpost that Congress was working towards on a bipartisan basis that that they agreed on previously. And I think that’s the same for 2027. That’s what’s unique about this, is there’s nothing that says, here’s the goal that we’re working towards, and then how do we allocate it by the different appropriations bills that are negotiated?
Terry Gerton Kevin Plexico is senior vice president of information solutions at Deltek. Kevin, let’s turn our attention to the windshield and not the rear-view mirror now. With all of that disruption in 2025, what is at the top of Deltek’s intelligence report for 2026?
Kevin Plexico Well, I think 2026 is going to be a better year than 2025, thanks primarily to the One Big Beautiful Bill. As you pointed out, it’s not a single-year appropriation. The funding in that legislation lasts through, I think it has to be committed in contracts essentially by the end of 2029; then expenditures can take longer. So that gives us a bit of time and it certainly doesn’t mean that it has get rushed out the door like we’ve seen — some emergency supplemental appropriations have had that shape. And so that provides some longer-term opportunity and ability for companies to reposition, to get after some of that money. The biggest challenge on the base-level appropriations, we’ve got this ambitious goal of growing defense spending, paid for by significant cuts in civilian spending, and we saw that under the prior Trump administration. But they were never able to get appropriators to buy off on that. And I think that’s the dynamic that we have in the Senate, where it has to get 60 votes to get past the filibuster. It does really need a bipartisan-level agreement to get appropriations done. That’s particularly challenging in these contentious times, but I do think it helps prevent those draconian cuts that could be put in place for some civilian agencies that we’ve seen this and the prior Trump administration ask for that usually have not been enacted.
Terry Gerton One of the sectors that’s really struggled this past year is small businesses. What do you see in the future for them?
Kevin Plexico This is an interesting one, because on the one hand, the government has done a really good job of spending money with small business. But if you look at the level of participation in terms of prime contracts, it’s going down. The number of small businesses I think has declined by close to 30% over the last several years in terms of prime contracting. And I think that’s a problem that the administration really has to take a look at. Unfortunately, some of the things that we’re seeing them do around relying on best-in-class contracts, don’t create a new contract if there’s already an existing contract that you can place a task or delivery order under — those really favor the companies that already have those prime contracts. I think it makes it challenging for small businesses to enter the market. On the research and development side, we’re still waiting for Congress to extend the SBIR and STTR programs, which are Small Business Innovative Research-related work. So it’s a challenging market for all companies, but in particular for small businesses. They’re dependent on cash flow; shutdowns particularly impact small businesses. The rule changes that are being made in the FAR overhaul are pretty profound in terms of their impact on small business. I think it’s unpredictable to understand how much is it going to affect a service-disabled veteran-owned business versus an 8(a) company versus a women-owned business. It seems like they’re gravitating more towards a preference of just small business set-asides and trying to get away from sole-source awards. And that’s a big change for the small business community for sure. So I think getting smart about the new rules and how they’re going to be applied agency by agency is going to be super important for small businesses.
Terry Gerton Well, speaking about the FAR overhaul, let’s talk about GSA for a minute. They’ve really worked over this last year to centralize a lot of buying strategies, centralize lot of contracts. They’ve updated the OASIS contract. What are you seeing and what should contractors be expecting to hear from GSA?
Kevin Plexico Well, I think the thing that’s created a lot of confusion is the way they’re rolling it out. Usually when FAR changes are rolled out, they go through a rulemaking process, they issue drafts, take comments and then go to a final rule or interim rule. What they’ve done in this particular situation is instead of approaching it in that traditional way, they’ve rolled out the revised FAR and basically said that agencies can adopt it if they get a class deviation. So, you have to literally go to the FAR overhaul website and see which agencies have adopted these FAR clauses. And right now you basically have different agencies using different versions of the FAR. The DoD is still using the traditional FAR and DFAR. They don’t have any class deviations that I’m aware of, but many civilian agencies do. So it just puts a lot of onus on the contracting community to really be mindful of what regulations are being followed by the agency you’re selling to, because it’s not the same as everybody’s following the FAR anymore. Which version of the FAR? Is it this class deviation or is it the traditional FAR? And that’s just an example of the chaos that we talked about.
Terry Gerton If you could give contractors one piece of advice as they’re trying to put their 2026 business strategies together, what would it be?
Kevin Plexico I go to what we call the four Cs. Customers: Who are the right customers that you’re going to be focused on selling to? Contracts: What vehicles are they going to be using to get access to those providers? Compliance: What do you need to be able to comply with, and I know the CMMC is a big one, but even with all the FAR overhaul changes, I haven’t seen what I would call a deregulation of compliance requirements. There’s pressure on agencies to use more fixed-price; that would potentially take away some of the accounting requirements that come along with a cost-plus contract. I think I might have missed a C in that, but you get the gist of it, right? It’s really just being more strategic and being more thoughtful about how you’re going to go to market. You can’t just afford to live off the agencies you’ve been doing business with, because they might be starving for money going forward. So you really have to take an honest assessment of where you are today, where you want to play, and how are you going to position yourself to get there? Because it’s not a quick pivot by any stretch.
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