Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices. 

Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing

In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further. 

Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month. 

In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. 

Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff. 

Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now

In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds. 

Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants. 

However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur.

With the latest bounce on Tuesday, the Bitcoin price has moved back above the $94,000 level, which appears to have reignited bullish sentiment across the market. A confirmed indication of the renewed bullish sentiment is the recent drop in selling pressure from investors and the futures market.

Futures Market Sellers Are Stepping Back

The cryptocurrency market is showing upward strength with Bitcoin reclaiming resistance levels that previously halted its upside attempts. While the price of BTC is trending upwards once again, selling pressure on the flagship asset from the futures market is declining sharply.

Following weeks of aggressive short positioning and high funding rates that exacerbated downward movements, indicators currently reflect a substantial cooling of sell-side activity. As outlined by Darkfost, a market expert and author at CryptoQuant, the selling pressure has now divided by 10 after reaching a monthly average peak of $489 million in the BTC Net Taker Volume metric.

This shift in sentiment is a sign that open interest is returning to normal, liquidations have slowed, and traders are reducing rather than increasing their negative wagers. Although this does not guarantee an immediate rise in BTC’s price, it alleviates one of the biggest headwinds that has affected prices in recent sessions.

The Bitcoin Net Taker Volume metric provides a net volume, which aids in determining who is controlling the futures order books. Furthermore, it is simpler to identify changes in trend and trading activity when the data is smoothed using a monthly average. Currently, Darkfost highlighted that sellers are still slightly dominating the orders, with over $51 million worth of trades. 

While the metric has not yet flipped into positive territory, the data shows that it is gradually approaching it. According to the expert, it is quite encouraging when traders begin to change their approach, especially considering the significant impact futures volumes have on price action.

It is worth noting that the BTC price action has experienced a stable trend since the decline in selling pressure kicked off. Thus, if Net Taker Volume were to turn positive once more, it would undoubtedly set off a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.

Is Bitcoin Volatility Heading For Rock Bottom?

As the bullish sentiment returns to the market, the ongoing volatility is starting to fade, leading to a period of low risk. Axel Adler Jr., another author at CryptoQuant, has shared an update revealing that BTC’s realized volatility has compressed significantly, reaching approximately 23%, a level that statistically rarely persists for long.

In the past, these compression regimens have resulted in a dramatic range expansion. With realized volatility now sitting at 23.6%, compression has reached a critical threshold, bringing BTC to a crucial stage that could play a role in its next move. 

At the time of writing, the price of BTC was trading at $94,890, indicating a more than 3% increase in the last 24 hours. Its trading volume has also increased significantly, rising by nearly 61% over the past day.