For most of the week, the Ethereum price has remained in a range-bound spell, putting in no significant movement outside of the $3,000 and $2,880 price boundaries. Amid rising speculations, an on-chain analysis has recently been put out, which provides an answer to the question.

Open Interest Across Exchanges Falls To $17 Billion

In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, analytics platform Arab Chain reveals that there has been a fall in active Ethereum derivatives contracts across major exchanges, as indicated by data from the Ethereum: Open Interest-All Exchanges, All Symbol metric. Typically, rising Open Interest (OI) across exchanges indicates that more traders are entering leveraged positions. On the other hand, falling OI reflects more exits of leveraged positions, and by extension, reduced aversion to risk.

In the Quicktake post, Arab Chain highlights that open interest across exchanges has dipped to about $16.9 billion, marking the lowest level reached since mid-December last year. This, in turn, reflects an overall reduction in risk appetite across the Ethereum derivatives market. Because there is less speculative activity, there are also reduced risks of liquidations. Hence, the Ethereum price stands a higher chance of consolidating.

What’s Happening On Binance?

While exchanges in general are recording significant pull-outs from the derivatives market, Binance has shown an outlier performance. Arab Chain highlights that the world’s largest exchange by trading volume has instead recorded about $7.5 billion in Open Interest. Interestingly, this reading slightly exceeds the December average range of $6.8–$7.4 billion. 

The divergence between the Open Interest values across all exchanges and that of Binance suggests that, while market participants are reducing their risk exposure, there is still liquidity in the derivatives market. Rather than a blatant exit, it has been repositioned toward the deeper and more liquid venue.

Arab Chain also explains that this behavior indicates a change in market operations from a higher-risk trading environment to one more price and risk efficient. In conclusion, the large traders are yet to make their exits but are merely reducing their exposure, while holding high-quality positions on Binance.

In addition, Ethereum’s proximity to the $3,000 price — especially as OI declines — shows that the market has been absorbing the deleveraging events while showing little selling pressure. Ultimately, Binance’s OI retaining levels above December’s support the idea that the market still has strong derivatives backing. Hence, the broader picture remains bullish. As of this writing, Ethereum trades at $2,958, reflecting a 0.33% growth since the past day, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview.com

Over the week, Ethereum struggled to sustain any significant move to the upside. Although the second-largest cryptocurrency reclaimed the $3,300 price level, it could not break above $3,400 to continue its path towards higher price levels. As it stands, it appears that the Ether token is taking on a short-term bearish structure. However, an on-chain evaluation has recently been put out, which suggests that market participants might be gearing up for a significant move in the near-term.

Ethereum Futures Activity Reaches Monthly High Following Market Inactivity

In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, analytics group Arab Chain reveals that there has recently been a spike in futures trading activity on the Binance derivatives market. This revelation is based on the Binance: ETH Futures Daily Volume metric, which monitors the total value of Ethereum futures contracts being traded on Binance each day, hence reflecting market activity, trader participation, and potential leverage exposure.

The latest reading of the metric has highlighted a major shift, with trading volume climbing as high as $21.7 billion. According to Arab Chain, this reading marks the highest level since mid-December, reflecting that strong momentum has returned to the futures market.

Notably, the spike in futures trading volume was preceded by a period of relative decline in the second half of December. This event coincides with a period of price stability, alongside a tapering risk appetite among traders. Interestingly, institutional investors also contributed prevalent aversion to risk.  Arab Chain explains that the decline is a typical sign that market participants want to “wait and see,” instead of speculatively opening large positions.

However, the present scenario — where futures volume surged — paints an opposing story. As the futures trading volume reflects levels above its mid-December high, it becomes apparent that interest among Ethereum traders is being rekindled. This is because increasing futures volume “is typically associated with higher leverage usage, hedging activity, and speculative positioning” — a line up which indicates that the market is preparing for significant movement.

The reason for this spike could also be attributed to traders who are reacting to key technical levels or shifting expectations around near-term price action of a potential trend reversal. In the grand scheme, however, the Ethereum price reacts to this activity, depending on the alignment of spot demand with derivatives activity. Till such a definite sign comes up, the market stands at a point of uncertainty.

ETH Price Overview

As of this writing, Ethereum stands at a price of $3,292, reflecting no real growth since the past day.