Bitcoin continues to struggle as it attempts to reclaim the $90,000 level, with traders facing a market defined by hesitation rather than conviction. After yesterday’s bearish breakdown below $90K, price action has slipped back into indecisive territory, raising fresh questions about whether this pullback is a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper corrective phase.

According to top analyst Axel Adler, a macro indicator called Trend Pulse helps explain why momentum has faded. Adler notes that since January 19, the market has remained in Bear Mode, with the Bull phase absent for 83 consecutive days. Two separate charts reinforce this shift, showing that both short-term momentum and quarterly performance have turned negative at the same time.

Trend Pulse recently shifted from Neutral to Bear, driven by a double-negative setup: the 14-day return has flipped red, and the SMA30 versus SMA200 trend signal is also negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits at -19%, confirming macro weakness, but without the kind of extreme that often signals a definitive bottom.

Bitcoin Remains Stuck In Bear Mode As Macro Signals Stay Negative

Adler notes that Bitcoin’s last Bull Mode signal was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000—roughly 83 days ago. Since then, the market has failed to regain structural strength. Even the Neutral stretch between December 30 and January 18 proved too short and too weak to restore the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned.

Adler explains that the first trigger for improvement is the 14-day return moving back above 0, which would shift the regime from Bear to Neutral. However, a full transition back into Bull Mode requires a second condition: SMA30 breaking above SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, that crossover would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a short-lived bounce.

The Bitcoin Price Performance chart adds macro context by tracking quarterly return (90D) as a sentiment proxy. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, while values below 0% signal pessimism, and drops below -30% reflect capitulation.

Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits near -19%, negative but far from deep bear-market extremes. Yet the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests downside momentum is accelerating after the $90K breakdown.

Together, Trend Pulse and quarterly returns point to moderate pessimism without final capitulation, leaving the market at a decision point.

BTC Moving Averages Cap Recovery

Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to hold above the $90,000 psychological level, reinforcing the market’s current indecision. The chart shows BTC printing a lower-high structure since the early November peak, followed by a sharp selloff that reset price into a wide consolidation range. After bottoming in late November, Bitcoin rebounded but struggled to build sustained momentum, repeatedly stalling on push attempts toward the mid-$90K zone.

From a trend perspective, BTC remains pressured beneath its key moving averages. Price is trading below the green long-term average and the blue mid-term average, both of which are now sloping downward, signaling that broader momentum continues to lean bearish.

The most recent rejection occurred as BTC briefly pushed into the $95K–$97K area, only to roll over and break back down toward the range lows. Meanwhile, the red long-term average remains well above price near the low-$100Ks, highlighting how far BTC would need to recover to reestablish a stronger macro uptrend.

Volume has picked up on selloffs relative to bounces, suggesting that downside moves are still being met with more urgency. For bulls, reclaiming $90K and then holding above $92K–$94K is key. Otherwise, the chart keeps risk open for a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80K region.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter).

Is $37,000 On The Horizon?  

Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin?

Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000. 

Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market.

Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected. 

During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides.

Critical Bitcoin Support Levels To Watch

The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions. 

Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability. 

Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated. 

Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines.

The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com