XRP is attempting to stabilize above the $1.90 level after slipping below the $2.00 mark, a breakdown that has fueled fresh uncertainty across the market. With momentum weakening and volatility picking up, traders are now watching whether this pullback becomes a temporary reset or the start of a deeper downside move.

Analysts remain divided on the outlook, as some argue XRP is entering a bearish continuation phase, while others believe the market is simply clearing leverage before a rebound. Either way, the coming sessions are shaping up to be decisive for short-term direction.

A report from Arab Chain adds an important layer of context by focusing on Binance flow dynamics. According to the report, data from Binance’s XRP platform shows the 30-day correlation between price and CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) sitting near 0.61, which signals a moderate to strong positive relationship between price action and net volume flows. In simple terms, XRP’s recent moves have not been disconnected from trading activity.

Instead, price changes appear to be relatively supported by actual volume behavior rather than isolated technical noise.

This matters because when price and CVD remain positively linked, the market is often viewed as structurally aligned, suggesting trend confirmation rather than a random bounce. For XRP, this correlation could become a key signal as bulls fight to defend $1.90.

XRP’s CVD Confirmation Score Shows Base-Building, Not Capitulation

Arab Chain explains that while the 30-day price–CVD correlation remains positive, the latest CVD reading is still relatively negative, signaling that accumulated selling pressure has not yet flipped into net buying dominance. This is a critical nuance.

Rather than acting like a simple “buy” or “sell” trigger, the metric functions as a confirmation score, meaning it evaluates whether price action is internally supported by volume flows instead of offering a clean entry signal. In other words, it helps traders judge the quality of the trend and whether market behavior is coherent beneath the surface.

The real value of this framework is its ability to detect divergence early. If XRP’s price attempts to recover while correlation deteriorates, or if CVD stays negative during upside moves, it would suggest hidden weakness and a higher probability that rallies are being sold into. That kind of imbalance often appears before sharp reversals, especially in uncertain conditions where liquidity is thin and momentum-driven positioning dominates.

In the current context, however, the market is sending a more balanced message. The persistence of a positive correlation despite ongoing price weakness implies that XRP may be entering a base-building phase, where selling pressure is being absorbed gradually rather than accelerating into aggressive distribution.

Trend Weakness Keeps Bulls On Defense

XRP is trading near $1.91 on the 3-day chart after failing to reclaim the $2.00 level, keeping the market in a fragile short-term position. The structure shows that XRP topped above $3.50 during the mid-2025 rally, but the move has since unraveled into a steady downtrend defined by lower highs and repeated breakdowns. After the sharp leg lower in October, the price attempted to stabilize, but the recovery lacked follow-through and has gradually faded into a tighter compression zone.

From a trend perspective, XRP remains capped below its major moving averages. The blue average is sloping downward and sits above price near the mid-$2 range, reinforcing a bearish bias and limiting upside attempts. The green average is also flattening and rolling over, confirming that momentum has weakened across multiple timeframes. Meanwhile, XRP is now leaning directly on the red long-term average, which is rising toward the current price and acting as a key support reference around the $1.85–$1.90 region.

Price action over the last several candles suggests a base-building process, but it is still premature to call a reversal. Bulls need to defend this support zone and reclaim $2.00–$2.10 to shift momentum back in their favor. If XRP loses the rising long-term average, downside risk increases toward $1.70 and potentially the mid-$1.50 area, where demand previously stepped in.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is testing demand below the $2 mark as the crypto market struggles to find stability amid rising uncertainty. After weeks of choppy price action and failed recovery attempts, traders are watching whether buyers can defend this zone or if another wave of selling pressure will push XRP into a deeper pullback. The broader market environment remains fragile, and risk appetite has weakened, keeping volatility elevated across major altcoins.

XRP is currently trading around 47% below its last all-time high from July 2025, highlighting how far the price has retraced since peak bullish momentum. However, this move is not necessarily abnormal. After an exceptional rally of more than 600% since November 2024, the market has naturally shifted into a phase of distribution and correction, as early buyers take profits and late entrants are forced to de-risk. This type of cooldown is often needed to reset positioning and rebuild a healthier structure for the next trend.

The current range suggests XRP is transitioning into a more balanced market where demand and supply are attempting to re-align. If buyers continue to step in near key support levels, the correction could evolve into a longer consolidation phase.

Negative Funding Rates Hint At A Potential XRP Reversal

Darkfost argues that what stands out in the current XRP setup is the timing of the bearish consensus. Instead of forming near the top, bearish positioning intensified only after XRP had already suffered a drawdown of more than 50%. Suggesting traders may be leaning short late in the correction cycle. On Binance, funding rates have remained mostly negative since December, reflecting a market dominated by leveraged short exposure rather than confident dip-buying.

Historically, markets tend to punish late consensus. While a buildup of shorts can add near-term selling pressure and keep price capped during weak conditions, it also creates latent buying pressure through forced covering. If XRP starts to reclaim key levels, short liquidations and rapid position unwinds can accelerate upside moves. Turning bearish positioning into fuel for a rebound.

Darkfost notes that this pattern has already appeared twice since 2024. During the August–September 2024 period, and again throughout the April 2025 correction, funding rates flipped negative for a sustained stretch before price stabilized and pushed higher. In both cases, the reversal was accompanied by improving sentiment and a return of funding rates toward neutral and then positive territory.

With funding still tilted bearish and positioning crowded to one side, the current context suggests XRP may be approaching another inflection point. If demand re-enters the market, the imbalance in shorts could support a sharp recovery.

XRP Consolidates Below $2 As Bears Lose Momentum

XRP’s 3-day chart shows the downside momentum has clearly slowed from the attempt to stabilize the price after an extended corrective phase. XRP currently trades near $1.94, holding above a local support zone that formed after the sharp sell-off in Q4 2025. While sellers remain active, the downside momentum has clearly slowed compared to the aggressive breakdown that pushed the market from the $2.60–$2.80 region into the current demand area.

From a trend perspective, XRP is still capped by declining moving averages. The shorter-term curve is sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance near the $2.10–$2.30 range. Each rebound attempt has struggled to reclaim these levels. Reinforcing that the market remains in a broader downtrend despite the recent bounce.

However, the current price structure suggests sellers are losing control, as the market has stopped printing lower lows and is shifting into a tight consolidation range.

If XRP reclaims $2, it could open the door for a stronger recovery move toward the $2.30–$2.50 zone. On the downside, losing the $1.85 floor would likely trigger renewed selling pressure and extend the correction.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP lost the $2 level after the broader crypto market suffered sharp declines on Monday, dragging price action back into a fragile zone. While the move rattled traders, Binance derivatives data suggests the sell-off has not triggered an extreme leverage unwind yet. Instead, the market appears to be entering a transitional phase where risk is rising, but speculative behavior remains relatively controlled.

Open interest metrics show a delicate balance between positioning and price weakness. Total XRP open interest on Binance climbed to roughly $566.48 million, pushing above the 30-day average near $528.84 million. This spread implies that fresh positions are still being added despite the downturn, but the pace looks measured rather than euphoric. In other words, traders are stepping in cautiously, not flooding the market with aggressive leverage.

The 30-day rolling Z-Score framework helps contextualize this shift. With open interest expanding while volatility stays contained, XRP may be building the conditions for a larger move ahead. For now, however, price remains vulnerable, and the next direction will likely depend on whether liquidity returns or fear deepens.

Open Interest Volatility Rises as XRP Builds Toward a Bigger Move

Arab Chain’s CryptoQuant read shows the most important shift isn’t the headline open interest figure, but the instability underneath it. The 30-day standard deviation of XRP open interest (oi_std30) has climbed to roughly $65.7 million, marking its highest level since November. That matters because it signals open interest is starting to swing more aggressively around its average, a pattern that often shows up before price leaves a tight range and enters expansion mode.

At the same time, the leverage signal still looks contained. The Z-Score holds near 0.57, signaling an elevated but not extreme level. In practical terms, positioning is growing, but it doesn’t look like the market is overheating or entering the kind of reckless leverage phase that typically leads to instant liquidation cascades. That combination—rising volatility in positioning while the Z-Score remains moderate—suggests momentum is building without a clear directional commitment yet.

This puts XRP in a “risk-on, but cautious” environment. Traders are adding exposure, volatility is creeping higher, and the setup is becoming more reactive. From here, oi_std30 becomes a key metric to track alongside price structure, because whichever way price breaks, the market is increasingly positioned for a larger move.

XRP Slides Back Toward $1.90 as Bears Keep Control

XRP remains under heavy pressure, with the chart showing price slipping back toward the $1.90 zone after failing to hold the $2 level. The market is printing a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming that the broader trend is still bearish despite several short-lived rebounds over recent weeks. Each time XRP attempts to recover, sellers quickly step in and cap momentum before it can reclaim key resistance levels.

The latest move highlights this weakness. XRP briefly pushed higher in early January but immediately rolled over, showing that demand is still too soft to sustain a breakout. The $2.00 region has now flipped into overhead resistance, and price will likely need a strong bullish catalyst to break back above it with conviction.

From a structure perspective, the current support area sits around $1.85–$1.90, which has acted as a short-term floor during the recent consolidation. If this zone fails, XRP could quickly revisit lower liquidity pockets, extending the downtrend.

Volume also reflects uncertainty. Activity remains erratic despite occasional, isolated spikes. This suggests the market is still reacting to fear-driven flows rather than steady accumulation. Price stalls in a fragile consolidation phase. And bulls need to reclaim above $2 to shift the short-term narrative back in their favor.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP is attempting to reclaim the $2 mark after a sharp breakdown that briefly dragged the price toward the $1.85 level. While bulls are trying to stabilize the move, the broader market remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty rises and analysts continue to warn that crypto could be entering a deeper bear market phase. In this environment, volatility is being amplified by leverage, and XRP’s derivatives market has become a clear battleground.

A CryptoQuant report highlights how January 18 delivered one of the most painful sessions for leveraged XRP traders this month. Data from the XRP Exchange Liquidation Metrics shows a major wave of forced liquidations hitting long positions across major exchanges, signaling that many traders were positioned too aggressively into the downside move. Unlike trading volume or open interest, liquidation data reflects positions being closed involuntarily, meaning traders were wiped out rather than choosing to exit.

Total long liquidations reportedly exceeded $5 million on the day, marking a standout liquidation cluster for January. Binance played a dominant role in the flush, accounting for roughly $1.05 million in long liquidations, reinforcing its position as a key venue driving XRP’s short-term volatility.

Macro Headlines Triggered the XRP Leverage Flush

The CryptoQuant report suggests that XRP’s liquidation spike on January 18 was not purely technical, but part of a broader macro-driven risk-off move that hit the entire crypto market at once. Instead of a slow bleed, the sell-off looked like a synchronized shock, where traders across multiple assets were forced to reduce exposure as uncertainty surged in global markets.

According to the report, the trigger came from geopolitical and trade-war rhetoric. Financial Times reported that European capitals may respond to US pressure over Greenland by considering tariffs worth up to €93 billion ($107.7B), or even restricting US companies’ access to the EU market. Even without immediate policy action, the headline alone was enough to revive fears of renewed transatlantic escalation.

Markets typically treat these events as liquidity threats. When tariffs and retaliation enter the narrative, traders begin pricing in slower growth, tighter financial conditions, and more volatility. Crypto, still behaving as a high-beta risk asset, tends to react fast.

Bitcoin’s drop from above $95,000 to below $93,000 added fuel to the fire, reinforcing downside momentum across altcoins. In XRP, that pressure quickly turned into forced selling, as leveraged longs were liquidated into a falling market rather than exiting voluntarily.

XRP Struggles Below $2 After Sharp Rejection

XRP is attempting to stabilize after a violent downswing that pulled the price back into the $1.85–$2.00 zone. The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the recent rebound high near $2.40, followed by an aggressive selloff that erased most of the breakout attempt. XRP is now trading around $1.97, hovering just below the psychological $2 level. Which has turned into a short-term momentum pivot.

From a market structure perspective, the trend remains pressured. Price continues to trade under the major moving averages, with the faster average rolling over and acting as dynamic resistance. The mid-term curve is also sloping downward, reinforcing the idea that rallies are still being sold rather than held. This aligns with a broader pattern of lower highs since the October peak. Suggesting that the market is still in a corrective phase.

The wick structure and repeated failed pushes toward the $2.20–$2.40 region show sellers defending that supply zone aggressively. At the same time, buyers are taking action near $1.85, forming a visible demand floor that has held through recent volatility.

For bulls, reclaiming $2.10–$2.20 is the first step toward recovery. Otherwise, another breakdown toward $1.85 remains a valid risk.

While XRP retests a crucial support area, some analysts have suggested that the altcoin is preparing for a massive expansion in the coming months, as a potential trend reversal begins to form and its 2017 formula repeats.

XRP Gears Up For Massive Expansion

On Friday, XRP reached a 12-day low, falling to the $2.02 area before bouncing. Notably, the cryptocurrency has been trading within the $2.05-$2.35 area for nearly two weeks, moving between the mid and lower zones of this price range for most of this period.

Amid its recent performance, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that the altcoin “is starting to look better, especially after that bullish market structure break with a fresh higher high.” The analyst highlighted that the cryptocurrency has been consistently trending lower since August, exclusively printing lower lows and lower highs.

However, it has broken out of this structure and recorded a higher high for the first time in months after the start-of-the-year rally, setting the stage for a potential reversal. “Now, we have to maintain this bullish structure at any cost and form a higher low on the next dip,” Sjuul warned.

Meanwhile, market observer ChartNerd pointed to a striking similarity between XRP’s 2017 playbook and its current performance. In an X post, the analyst affirmed that the altcoin is repeating its 2016-2017 formula, which led to a massive rally toward its previous all-time high (ATH).

At the time, XRP saw a textbook multi-year symmetrical triangle formation breakout, followed by a multi-month ABC consolidation before its 1,500% mark-up. This time, the cryptocurrency has repeated a similar symmetrical triangle pattern breakout, and it is currently in Wave C of its ABC consolidation period.

To the analyst, a deeper Wave C retracement is possible if the multi-month $1.80 support is lost. Nonetheless, he added that “cycle formula repetition signals XRP is gearing up for expansion towards $8/$13/$27,” which would be a 300%-1,250% increase from the current levels.

Q1 Close To Define XRP’s Future

Despite his bullish forecast, ChartNerd also shared an important warning for the next two months. According to the analyst, “XRP has just over 2 months to invalidate this 3M bearish Heikin-Ashi candle formation,” or it will risk a massive correction.

In a video analysis, he explained that, in the past, whenever the altcoin saw massive rallies followed by a red bearish candle on the three-month timeframe, it would “normally indicate the start of a downtrend or a macro consolidation period.”

In 2014, XRP saw a bearish candle print in the three-month timeframe after a remarkable pump, which was followed by a correction and consolidation “for quite a couple of years,” he explained.

“The same happened again in 2018. We had this massive rally for XRP, and as soon as we printed a three-month bearish candle in the Heikin-Ashi Candle formation, (…) we entered into the bear market,” ChartNerd continued.

Similarly, the cryptocurrency repeated the same performance in 2021. Now, XRP is starting to form a red candle in this timeframe and has approximately 2 months and 16 days to close the quarter on a positive note.

“We have until March before this candle closes. (…) So, what we don’t want to see is this full-bodied three-month Heikin-Ashi Candle, because if we see it, this is where we are likely to see a deeper correction for the next six to nine and even 12 months,” the analyst concluded.

As of this writing, XRP is trading at $2.05, a 1.7% decline in the weekly timeframe.

XRP is attempting to stabilize above the $2 level after enduring several days of sustained selling pressure, as the broader market searches for direction. While price action has cooled from recent highs, the latest data suggests that activity around XRP remains balanced rather than distressed. According to metrics shared by Arab Chain via CryptoQuant, trading behavior shows no signs of panic or speculative excess despite the recent pullback.

Data sourced from Binance indicates that XRP’s 30-day Z-Score for trading volume is currently around 0.44. This reading places current volume slightly above its 30-day average, but still well within a historically normal range. Importantly, Z-Score values above +2 are typically associated with aggressive inflows and speculative surges, while deeply negative readings tend to signal market apathy or liquidity drying up. XRP’s current position in the positive-neutral zone suggests neither scenario is playing out.

This context matters. Rather than reflecting capitulation or renewed hype, the data points to a market that is digesting prior moves. As XRP holds above $2, the absence of abnormal volume spikes implies that recent selling pressure may be easing, setting the stage for consolidation or a more deliberate next move once conviction returns.

XRP Volume Z-Score Signals Market Equilibrium

The report explains that this behavior suggests XRP’s recent price action was not fueled by a speculative frenzy, but instead reflected relatively balanced trading between buyers and sellers. Despite XRP managing to hold above the $2 level, the absence of an elevated volume Z-Score indicates that the market is not experiencing excessive excitement. Rather, conditions point to a phase of consolidation or potential accumulation following the volatility seen in previous weeks.

This type of Z-Score reading commonly appears during periods of anticipation, when participants wait for a clearer directional catalyst. In such environments, price can remain range-bound as liquidity stays stable and neither side gains decisive control.

If XRP’s price begins to move higher while the Z-Score rises above the 1.5–2.0 range, it would suggest fresh capital entering the market and could mark the beginning of a stronger, momentum-driven advance. That combination would provide clearer confirmation of renewed demand.

On the other hand, if trading volume contracts further and the Z-Score remains near zero or slips into negative territory, it would imply fading interest. Under those conditions, XRP could face renewed downside pressure or extend its sideways consolidation as liquidity thins.

The current Z-Score does not deliver a clear buy or sell signal. Instead, the data highlights a stable market environment. Any meaningful move now requires volume confirmation to establish its robustness.

XRP Price Struggles to Reclaim Key Moving Averages

XRP is currently trading near the $2.05 level after a prolonged period of selling pressure, as shown on the daily chart. The recent rebound from sub-$1.90 levels suggests that buyers are attempting to defend the psychological $2.00 zone, which has acted as an important pivot throughout this cycle. However, price action remains structurally weak, with XRP still trading below its major moving averages.

The chart shows XRP firmly below the 200-day moving average (red line) near the $2.55–$2.60 area, a level that now represents a critical medium-term resistance. The 100-day and 50-day moving averages (green and blue lines) are also sloping downward, reinforcing the bearish trend that began after the failed breakout above $3.50 in late 2025. Each attempt to recover has been capped by these dynamic resistance levels, signaling persistent distribution rather than aggressive accumulation.

From a market structure perspective, XRP continues to print lower highs and lower lows, despite the short-term bounce. Volume has remained relatively muted during the recent recovery, suggesting limited conviction behind the move. This supports the idea that the rebound is corrective rather than the start of a new impulsive trend.

For bullish momentum to regain credibility, XRP must reclaim and hold above the $2.30–$2.40 region, followed by a break above the 200-day moving average. Until then, the prevailing structure favors consolidation or further downside risk.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com