LoginCrypto — The Next Couple Years
Crypto — The Next Couple Years
A look at the bear market, where we are heading, and where the opportunities lie.
In keeping with the unprecedented “bull market” in crypto that has thrown all the best traders and investors for a gigantic loop, it looks like were are in for a similarly dissimilar “bear market” for the better part of 2026.
At this point, we have quite possibly been in a bear market for a good portion of 2025. With only two weeks left in the year, we are now down and firmly in the red, having kicked off at roughly $95K and currently sitting down almost 10% at $87K BTC.
Outside of Bitcoin, this lackluster bull run saw only brief flashes of euphoria and almost no FOMO. Even blue chips like ETH and SOL only had short runs, barely exceeding previous all time highs.
The reality is, crypto is at a crossroads, and the crypto of old no longer exists and is fading into obscurity. In 2017 and 2021, the bull runs were cannibalistic PvP crypto games pitting retail against one another, and with institutions acting as the house and taking cuts all along the way.
We played against each on other in our little degenerate sandbox, building cool things, and playing a big game of crypto monopoly where we all pretended tokens had real value and real holder rights. It turns out, as most of us already knew, that those tokens are built on an excellent technology that is going to revolutionize the world of finance, but not in the way we hoped ... and those “rights” were not as secure as we thought they were.
Tokens are a tool, like the internet or planes … we use them not BECAUSE they are planes, but because we want to get somewhere. We don’t go on a vacation and talk about the plane we took. The world is not going to use Web3 wallets and transfer millions or billions of dollars via web extensions, they are going to demand secure and intuitive UIs that abstract away all that complexity and security issues. In the background, crypto will be the technological rails upon which the entire system is built. Video games will not be “Web3 Games”, just games that use crypto in the background to improve the experience. Payments will not be “crypto payments”, they will just be payments that use crypto rails. No one will care that those games use crypto or that the payments used stablecoins. They care that the game is fun, and the payments are safe and cheap and convenient.
Like the bull market, which reflected this new reality before we knew it existed, the coming bear market too will reflect this new reality. Our little niche sandbox monopoly game is now mainstream, and the world will be using our technology without even knowing it.
There will still be huge opportunities, and crypto is far from done. But those opportunities will no longer be our PvP altcoin games, but instead select infrastructure projects with clear token benefits and a direct concrete link between the protocol growth and token value.
So What’s Next for Crypto?
To try to decipher the path of the next couple years, we need to set aside our conventional cycle timing charts and halving to ATH returns and altcoin season metrics. Instead, we need to simplify the investment thesis, and find ways to amplify returns without the acute risks of investing in most altcoins, whose token values are becoming increasingly obscure and untethered.
Election Cycle Correlation:
Lets be honest, the tradeFi markets are likely the best predictor of Bitcoin and crypto price action. A prosperous S&P or Nasdaq is far more likely to be accompanied by positive BTC price action. The inverse is even more strongly correlated.
2026 correlates strongly with the weakest historical TradeFi market performance based on election cycles, while also correlating very well with typical crypto bear market timings. Exhausted price action also points at a 2026 bear market continuation.
That said, given the lack of FOMO and resulting lack of leverage, it is my expectation we see a more mild bear market pullback. Keep in mind, predictions nowadays are far less valuable than a long term investment thesis. Crypto WILL take over finance, timing is anyone’s guess.
Timing and Targets:
The thesis is clear as day … crypto is revolutionary, and despite the malaise, we are still in the early days. The timing of tops and bottoms is nothing more than an educated guess, one around which we can build our entry strategies to take advantage of the asymmetric opportunities that the fear and malaise will inevitably present us.
My expectation is a shortened bear market with a milder pullback, the muted price action being a direct result of the lack of leveraged exposure built up during this bull market. There will be a multitude of Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies going under or closing up shop, but the big guns will survive.
Bear Market Timing: Lows around Q3 2026 (Aug/Sept of 2026)
Bear Market Low: $50K-$55K
The timing coincides well with conventional cycle timings, the election cycle, liquidity cycles and QE resumption. The price is moderately below the previous cycle ATH, and at a major support level representing an approximate 55% drop from the $126K BTC ATH. Interestingly, if it plays out, it is only (😏) an additional 37% drop from current prices.
Bear Market Strategy & Opportunities:
I am currently roughly 70% cash, 20% MSTR and MSTR Pref shares, and 10% select altcoins.
My bear market gameplan is as follows:
- Hold my few remaining Altcoins, and sell into any significant dead cat bounces (which I do expect we will get early next year).
- DeFi yield to be re-invested in BTC only
- Hold $STRK, $STRC and $STRD for yield (between 9% and 13% at time of writing) and reinvest dividends in $MSTR or Pref shares depending on mNAV and Pref share pricing.
- Write covered call options on $STRC to increase yield when feasible
- Write $MSTR covered calls 15–25% OOTM, <1 month duration to earn approx. 2-3% per month yield.
- On significant bounce, evaluate IBIT/ETHA Put options +/- 12–18 month duration.
- Begin buying $MSTR and Pref Shares as we approach $55K BTC or Aug/Sept 2026
- Begin buying LEAPS (2yr + call options) on IBIT and ETHA (and possibly SOL) as we approach $55K BTC or Aug/Sept 2026
Conclusion:
Things are looking bleak in the cryptosphere, and more difficult than ever to navigate and predict. But when fear, doubt and uncertainty are so prevalent, it bodes well to simplify your investment thesis. Be patient, the opportunities will come to you. Ignore the herd. Buy conviction.
Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!
Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)
I release regular altcoin and crypto updates, subscribe for more info and to keep up to date!
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Disclosures:
- I own or am accumulating the above mentioned tokens/investments.
- Not financial advice.
- I rebalance my portfolio occasionally and the above may change from time to time.
Crypto — The Next Couple Years was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
