Bitcoin risks a further drop toward the $70,000 area if the Bank of Japan follows through with an expected interest-rate rise on Dec. 19, analysts focused on macro forces warned.

According to multiple macro-focused voices, the move could sap global liquidity and put fresh downward pressure on risk assets, with some traders already bracing for a sharp pullback.

Japan’s policy shift matters because higher rates tend to strengthen the yen and raise the cost of borrowing. When that happens, traders who previously borrowed cheaply in yen to invest elsewhere are often forced to unwind those positions.

That process can pull money out of global markets in a short period of time, and Bitcoin has often felt that impact as investors cut exposure during risk-off stretches.

BOJ Tightening Drains Global Liquidity

According to AndrewBTC, every BOJ hike since 2024 has coincided with Bitcoin drawdowns of more than 20%. Based on reports, the analyst pointed to declines of roughly 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025.

BREAKING: JAPAN WILL CRASH $BTC

Bank of Japan is set to hike rates +25 bps on Dec 19. Japan = largest holder of US government debt

Look at the $BTC chart:

Every BoJ rate hike → Bitcoin dumps over 20%+

• March 2024 → -23% • July 2024 → -26% • January 2025 →… pic.twitter.com/grN3QRNUg4

— AndrewBTC (@cryptoctlt) December 13, 2025

Traders are not only watching central bank calendars. Bitcoin’s daily chart also flashed a classic bear flag formation after a steep fall from the $105,000–$110,000 area in November.

Market Positioning Widens Ahead Of Key Data

Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 in thin trading on Sunday, a move that traders took as a cautionary sign rather than a definitive trigger. Based on reports, Ether held up better than many altcoins, suggesting selective risk taking in the market.

Traders are positioning before a busy slate of US data and central bank events that could sway flows. Analyst EX bluntly warned BTC will collapse “below $70,000” under the stated macro conditions, a stark forecast that highlights how crowded bets can amplify moves when liquidity is pulled.

EVERY TIME JAPAN HIKES RATES, BITCOIN DUMPS 20–25%

NEXT WEEK, THEY WILL HIKE RATES TO 75 BPS AGAIN.

IF THE PATTERN HOLDS, $BTC WILL DUMP BELOW $70,000 ON DECEMBER 19.

POSITION ACCORDINGLY. pic.twitter.com/IWU8JbXjn3

— ΞX (@rektbyEX) December 13, 2025

What This Means For Investors

The story tying BOJ policy to Bitcoin’s swings is simple in outline: when funding costs in Japan rise, global borrowing becomes pricier, and risk assets can be sold as positions are reduced.

That dynamic helps explain why past BOJ moves lined up with 20-30% declines in Bitcoin. Still, markets often try to price events ahead of time; a hike that’s already built into prices may have a smaller effect than one that comes as a surprise.

Featured image from Nikkei Asia, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market has continued to consolidate within the $90,000 price zone over the last day, reflecting a minor 0.04% gain within this period. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has witnessed a steady rally in recent weeks, forming the early phases of an ascending channel. To protect this potential uptrend, recent on-chain data shows that investors are moving to initiate a downside and price in the market effect of an anticipated negative catalyst.

Bitcoin Sees High Inflows, Negative Funding Rates As Investors Guard Against Rate Hike

In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, the crypto analysis page XWIN Research Japan discusses how potential Japan economic developments are presently impacting the Bitcoin market. Notably, analysts and economists expect the Bank of Japan to announce a 25 bps rate hike at its next policy meeting between December 18-19, as the Asian nation moves to end an ultra-loose monetary regime.

Interest rate hikes are generally interpreted as bearish catalysts as they force investors to move out of risky assets due to less available capital, thereby inducing a price decline. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin investors may currently be attempting to absorb the resulting price pressure, potentially muting the immediate impact of the primary catalyst itself.

 

This theory is based on multiple developments, such as exchange netflows. The analysts at XWIN report that exchange inflows are rising to mirror similar levels seen during previous BOJ hikes. Investors are presently exiting exchanges and minimizing their spot exposure to reduce the market impact of the expected decision.  Meanwhile, the funding rates are also declining, another event seen during past rate hikes. Notably, investors are proactively losing their leverage in what is a pre-event caution movement.

What Next For Bitcoin? 

At press time, Bitcoin tie valued at $90,190, reflecting a market gain of 0.77% in the past week. With the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pivot largely priced in, XWIN Research says that market focus has shifted away from the rate hike itself toward post-announcement yen dynamics.

Going forward, the analysts explain that Bitcoin’s near-term direction may hinge on whether the yen continues to strengthen or if markets respond with a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reversal, signaling that the adjustment phase is already unfolding. With a market cap of $1.67 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency with a current market dominance of 58.2%