Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support.

How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move

CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up.

Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. 

Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious.

CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price.

On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money

The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion.

Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation.

After two months dominated by uncertainty, global markets are showing greater tolerance toward negative macro inputs, according to research commentary from Wintermute.

Concerns surrounding central bank policy pivots, uneven macroeconomic data, and questions around the sustainability of AI-driven capex remain, but they are no longer triggering the same reflexive risk-off reaction seen earlier in the quarter.

The result is a consolidation phase marked by choppy but more resilient trading patterns as price action settles into a range-bound structure. Wintermute notes that the market has shifted from reactive liquidation to a more measured environment of digestion and recalibration.

Crypto Sees Rotation Into Majors as Fragility Meets Resilience

In crypto, the shift has been one of consolidation rather than breakout. Bitcoin has recovered toward $92,000, while overall crypto market capitalization has rebounded to $3.25 trillion.

Last Friday’s sharp $4,000 intraday drawdown, triggered by cascading liquidations totaling $2 billion in just over an hour, showed the lingering fragility of the recovery.

However, the key takeaway for Wintermute was that the market absorbed the shock without follow-through selling, indicating growing resilience.

Fading momentum in the Nasdaq is pushing investors toward more selective risk-taking. Wintermute’s desk notes a rotation into majors, with rare simultaneous inflows into BTC and ETH from both retail and institutional participants.

Yet despite increased spot flows, the compressed basis reflects low conviction in leveraged positioning, as participants await clarity on the macro front.

Focus Turns to the Fed and BOJ as Altcoin Appetite Stalls

A packed central bank calendar is now driving positioning. Market attention is fixed on the Federal Reserve decision this Wednesday, followed by the Bank of Japan next week.

With CME basis compressed, interest has shifted toward delta-neutral strategies in lower-cap assets, where carry opportunities remain attractive, reports Wintermute.

This trend shows a lack of appetite for directional altcoin risk, with the market prioritizing yield capture and capital efficiency over speculative exposure—a posture consistent with consolidation rather than breakout.

Outlook: Consolidation Remains the Base Case

Wintermute’s research concludes that the market is consolidating without conviction, and major macro events are likely to dictate the next directional move. Activity has narrowed around the most liquid assets, while subdued funding and muted leverage reflect caution.

Absent a decisive macro surprise, crypto is expected to remain range-bound, with volatility driven more by liquidity and structural positioning than fundamentals. Rising interest in delta-neutral and carry strategies reinforces consolidation as the prevailing regime into year-end.

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