Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin’s November Red Candle Signals Bearish MACD Cross, Eyes $75,000 Test

Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook

Bitcoin price managed to put in a green candle on the weekly close, finally, but it wasn’t enough to hold off the bears as the price dropped sharply right after the weekly and monthly close on Sunday night. The week and month closed at $90,385, still well below the closest resistance level at $91,400. Bears will likely look to take advantage of this weak close heading into this week, and potentially push the price down below the $84,000 support level.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Bulls managed to test initial resistance last week at $91,400, but sold off heavily after hitting $93,000, short of the next resistance at $94,000. Above here, we should see strong resistance at $98,000 all the way up to $103,000. Higher resistance levels were covered in last week’s analysis, so we’ll reopen that topic if bulls can manage to get close to $100,000 after the end of this week.

$84,000 Support held firm this past week, but bulls did not muster much of a bounce. This support level will be under pressure heading into this week. Initially, bulls will look to hold the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement at $87,000, however. Below $84,000, bulls may look to defend $75,000. Below here, the $72,000 to $69,000 area should provide strong support and at least a bounce or two from this zone. If this area sees heavy selling pressure, though, it may eventually crack and usher in a test of the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,700.

Outlook For This Week

With the price closing below resistance on Sunday, the bears jumped on this weakness and pushed the price down to $87,000 support. Look for bulls to defend this level early, but if it is lost, bulls know they must hold the line at $84,000 to avoid dropping to new lows and testing $75,000 this week. So, we may see some range-bound action this week as bears may still need a bit of a rest before taking out this support level. If bulls can hold them off, they will again attempt to conquer $91,400 and potentially $94,000 this week, but I wouldn’t expect any strong moves up this week.

The next few weeks
Sunday night brought us the monthly candle close for November as well. November closed as a big red bearish candle, taking out the April, May and June green closes in one fell swoop. Price did rally to close above the monthly 21-EMA, which is a good sign, but December will have to try to put in some reversal candles to keep the bulls’ hopes alive. The most bearish aspect of November’s close is that it confirmed a bearish cross on the MACD oscillator. This is to be taken seriously on such a high time frame and should keep the price subdued for at least the coming two to three months. This signal is yet another sign that the Four-year cycle top is likely in.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Oscillators: Technical indicators that vary over time, but typically remain within a band between set levels. Thus, they oscillate between a low level (typically representing oversold conditions) and a high level (typically representing overbought conditions). E.G., Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD).

MACD Oscillator: Moving Average Convergence-Divergence is a momentum oscillator that subtracts the difference between 2 moving averages to indicate trend as well as momentum.

This post Bitcoin’s November Red Candle Signals Bearish MACD Cross, Eyes $75,000 Test first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Defends $84K Support Like a Champ: Oversold Bounce Targets $94K This Week

Bitcoin Bulls Stunned after Sellers Take Price All the Way Down to $80K

Last week, we identified the $84,000 area as the next major support for bitcoin, and that’s exactly where the price went. Bitcoin dropped to nearly $80,000 but managed to climb back above $84,000 support to close the week out at $86,850. Heading into this week, look for bears to let off the gas pedal a little bit as they sit comfortably in control of the price action. Daily oscillators were heavily oversold heading into this past weekend, so a bounce is in order at least into Monday, possibly a little further out.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

$84,000 Support held on the weekly close, so this is the level bulls will want to remain above into this week’s close. If $84,000 is lost, bulls look to $75,000, which likely won’t be too strong of a support level, and below there we’ve got a high volume support zone between $72,000 and $69,000. It’s difficult to see the price pushing below $70,000 too quickly, so expect some bounces from this area, even if it eventually fails to hold. Below here, we have the $58k gang support and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,700.

With last week’s price breakdown, resistance levels have now changed heading into this week. Bulls will look to take on the $91,400 resistance level at the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement first and foremost. Above here, we should see strong resistance at $94,000 now at the high volume node. If price can manage to grind through this zone, $98,000 sits above it as a final barrier to establish this high-volume node as support. If this occurs, there are still resistance levels at $103,000 and another at $109,000 at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. Finally,  $116,500 remains as the last layer of resistance preventing the price from achieving new highs.

Outlook For This Week

Daily RSI hit very oversold levels on Friday last week, so it is not surprising that the price made a move up into the weekend from those lows. This week, look for the price to try to challenge the $91,400 resistance level and potentially $94,000 if it can climb above there. As long as the price can hold above $84,000, it should try to head for those target levels. With all the selling leading into last Friday, another big selloff should not be expected, but if the $80,000 low is lost, the price could drop to $75,000 this week.

Market mood: Extremely Bearish – The bulls are down on the canvas. Little hope remains for any meaningful rally or new highs after losing major support levels.

The next few weeks
The broadening wedge pattern we were watching for so many weeks finally and definitively broke to the downside last week. The target for this pattern is right around $70,000, so even if we see a rally this week and into the next, the price should eventually roll back over and head down to test $70,000. The US government, getting back to work last week, did nothing to assist the markets. In the coming weeks, it may be difficult to predict when economic data may or may not be available since much of it was delayed due to the shutdown. The market is mixed on whether or not the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates at the next meeting, and they themselves seem to be conflicted between balancing inflation concerns with labor market issues.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.

High Volume Node: An area in the price where a large amount of buying and selling occurred. These are price areas that have had a high volume of transactions and we would expect them to act as support when price is above and resistance when price is below.

RSI Oscillator: The Relative Strength Index is a momentum oscillator that moves between 0 and 100. It measures the speed of the price and changes in the speed of the price movements. When RSI is over 70, it is considered to be overbought. When RSI is below 30, it is considered to be oversold.

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

This post Bitcoin Defends $84K Support Like a Champ: Oversold Bounce Targets $94K This Week first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Plunges Below $96K Support, Erasing 2025 Gains Amid Extreme Bearish Sentiment

Well, the hopes and dreams of the bulls have been dashed this week after Bitcoin closed the week out at $94.290, below the key $96,000 weekly support level. In the weeks ahead, we should expect more bearish price action as key support levels have been lost. Bounces back up may come, but they are unlikely to result in recapturing any meaningful price levels. 

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Bitcoin price closed below the $96,000 support level identified in this article in prior weeks. Closing near the lows below this level provides very little chance, if any, for the price to recover and resume a bull market anytime soon. Looking lower, we have our next major support level below at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement from the 2022 bottom to October 2025 high, and another high volume node sitting in the $83,000 to $84,000 area. Below here, we would look to the highs of the 2024 consolidation zone between $69,000 and $72,000.

Resistance above $94,000 is thick now. With the price closing so low, we should not expect much of a bounce at this level, if any. If price does see any kind of bounce this week, we will look to the $98,000 level to hold as resistance. A short squeeze may be able to push the price past here to $101,000. Above this level, we have the equivalent of a brick wall in the $106,000 to $109,000 zone. Beyond the wall lies $114,000 as significant resistance, and $116,000 as a final reinforcement for the bears. If price closes above $116,000, if bulls can bash all the way up there, we would need to re-examine the market structure as it could flip bullish up there.

Outlook For This Week

Do you believe in miracles? You will need to know if you expect the bitcoin price to see any kind of meaningful rally this week. There is a tiny bit of hopium for the bulls in that the broadening wedge pattern has not definitively broken bearish. If we stretch it out as low as it can go (adjusted from prior weeks), the price is barely supported at the bottom at current lows. It’s a tall task for bulls, though, to make any meaningful gains with all the resistance levels outlined above. The best that bulls should expect is a bounce to $106,000, with the price likely to roll over to new lows from anywhere South of there. More likely, the broadening wedge will break to the downside at some point this week as bears are clearly in full control.

Market mood: Extremely Bearish – The bulls are down and out. Sitting at around $94,000, bitcoin has fallen over 25% from the October highs. Little hope remains for any meaningful rally or new highs after losing major support levels.

The next few weeks
Examining all angles of the 4-year bitcoin cycle theory, the high has most likely already taken place. Timing for this was expected to take place sometime between September and December 2025, but with the price so low and so much resistance overhead, it is highly unlikely any kind of rally will sustain enough strength to bring the price to new highs before the end of this year. Is the 4-year cycle over? Well, seemingly not, since the price made a high in early October and has essentially gone straight down from there. Could we see a late 4-year cycle high in Q1 2026? Well, sure, it’s possible, but still highly improbable given bitcoin’s lack of strength in recent weeks, while the stock market has remained strong. With the traditional stock market appearing to have a bearish outlook for the foreseeable future, it is unlikely that bitcoin will see any meaningful rally during this period as well.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

This post Bitcoin Plunges Below $96K Support, Erasing 2025 Gains Amid Extreme Bearish Sentiment first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Closes at $104,700 After Rejecting Sub-$100,000 Dips; $109,400 Fibonacci Resistance Next

While the bears dominated price action early last week, the bulls managed to show strong support below $100,000. Bitcoin price dropped briefly below $100,000 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday, but buyers stepped in each of those days to push the price back above $100,000, avoiding a daily close below this key level. A small weekend rally allowed the bitcoin price to reclaim the $104,000 support, closing at $104,700. Heading into this week, look for the $109,400 resistance level to keep a lid on things, with $111,000 looking like strong resistance if the price can go beyond there.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

The weekly 55 EMA at $99,000 provided strong support each time the price lost $100,000 last week. Bulls stepped up at this level, front-running the $96,000 bull market support level. Going forward, bulls will look for the 55 EMA to hold as support after such a large move off of this level last week.

As the bulls attempt to barge onward, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $109,400 should provide some resistance. Above here, bears will look for the daily point of control at $111,000 on the volume profile to hold back the bulls. Beyond this level, $116,000 sits as a gatekeeper for the bears, as closing above this level will flip bias back over to the bulls. Market structure looks decisively more bullish if the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $116,000 can be converted to support. Bulls may see a little resistance at $129,000 at the top of the broadening wedge pattern if they manage to reclaim $116,000 as support, but I would not expect $129,000 to hold for long if price does indeed reach it.

Outlook For This Week

Rumours of the US federal government shutdown ending this week are prevalent. If both parties can manage to sort out the filibuster, markets may get a boost this week. Bulls will look for the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement at $102,900 to hold as support on the daily chart early this week, to maintain upward movement. The daily chart may struggle to close above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $109,400 even if it gains some more momentum. Losing $100,000 this week would be very bearish and likely lead to a test of $96,000 at minimum, with potential for the price to crash even lower to $93,000 and possibly even $84,000 below that.

Market mood: Bearish – Despite the strength shown by the bulls last week, the outlook is still bearish if we are being honest here. A large red weekly candle close is still bearish.

The next few weeks
The broadening wedge pattern we have been watching for weeks here is not broken yet. So there’s still a chance the bulls can bring the price back to the top trend line around $129,000. Bias is still in favor of the bears here, though, as currently, this pattern is still likely to break to the downside. $116,000 is the key level bulls need to re-establish as support to get the price moving back to new highs. While the government shutdown was not overly bearish on markets initially, the long duration of it is starting to take a toll. If the US federal government can indeed get back to work soon, it should provide a boost to the Nasdaq, and in turn, this should help provide supportive conditions for the bitcoin price to reclaim some key resistance levels. Any major macro bearish events incoming likely put an end to bitcoin’s bull market, so overall conditions need to remain stable to foster more upside.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

This post Bitcoin Closes at $104,700 After Rejecting Sub-$100,000 Dips; $109,400 Fibonacci Resistance Next first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Support Under Attack as Bears Look to Push Price Below $100,000

It was a very disappointing week for bitcoin price action last week. Monday saw a nice move up into resistance, but that momentum quickly faded as bitcoin retraced the bullish move to end up right back down at the lows by Thursday. The market was a mixed bag as the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point cut was expected, but Chairman Powell put a damper on expectations going forward, stating that there were no plans to continue with another interest rate cut in December’s FOMC meeting, which the market had been expecting. Bitcoin closed the week out at $110,591, which wasn’t entirely bearish, but was not confidence-inspiring for the bulls either.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

The $106,900 support level held again last week at the 0.146 Fibonacci Retracement, providing a nice bounce for the bulls on Thursday into the weekly close on Sunday. Bulls do not want this level to be tested again going forward, as it would be more likely to fail on the next test. Losing this level is very likely to lead to losing $100,000 and a test of long-term support at $96,000. We do have potential support at $104,000 before there, but this level has been tested twice already, so it would be a big ask for this level to hold as support once again.

The bearish price action last week has only created additional resistance levels for the bulls to overcome here. Price closed last week below the 21-EMA, which sits right around $111,000 entering this week. The volume profile is also showing us a point of control (POC) at $111,000 as well. If price manages to climb above $111,000, we will look to $114,600 as the next resistance level. Closing above $114,600 opens up $122,000 as the final hurdle to overcome for the bulls to take back control of the action.

Outlook For This Week

Bitcoin is likely to break support to the downside this week unless buyers can step up in a big way, with strong buying volume. Look for $106,900 support to be lost if the price starts closing below $108,000. $104,000 should provide a bounce below there, but the $96,000 support is likely to be tested if $104,000 doesn’t hold for long. Bulls will likely need some sort of macro catalyst this week to save themselves from lower prices, as the daily chart is looking very bearish heading into this week. As of Monday morning, it appears bitcoin is losing the $106,900 level and will test $104,000 or lower.

Market mood: Bearish – The bulls’ hopes were beaten back this week when the price failed to hold above the $115,500 resistance level. The onus is still on the bulls to take out some upper resistance levels to try to swing bias back in their favor.

The next few weeks
Bitcoin is likely to take a backseat to the Nasdaq price action going forward. It will be very difficult to sustain any kind of upward movement if the Nasdaq continues to correct lower over the coming weeks. So, bitcoin bulls will be hoping for the Nasdaq to resume its uptrend to help them out. Bulls will also be looking out for the Consumer Price Index, due to be released on November 13, for an improvement from last month’s lukewarm inflation numbers. Cooler inflation data should tilt the odds in favor of another interest rate cut in the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. Unless the bulls get a lot of help here, the bears should remain in control for the foreseeable future.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

EMA: Exponential Moving Average. A moving average that applies more weight to recent prices than earlier prices, reducing the lag of the moving average.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Volume Profile: An indicator that displays the total volume of buys and sells at specific price levels. The point of control (or POC) is a horizontal line on this indicator that shows us the price level at which the highest volume of transactions occurred.

This post Bitcoin Support Under Attack as Bears Look to Push Price Below $100,000 first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Closes at $114,530 Amid FOMC Volatility: Bulls Eye $117,600 Resistance

Bitcoin Price Weekly Outlook

Bitcoin’s price action was rather subdued last week, keeping traders guessing whether or not we would see another large drop in price entering the weekend. Price held above the lows, however, slowly plodding a little bit higher to close out the week at $114,530. Bulls should not be overly disappointed with this price action, as they did reclaim the $112,200 resistance level, and are now closing in on conquering the next resistance level at $115,500. The bears are still sitting comfortably in control, though, with stronger resistance levels hanging overhead that the bulls have yet to challenge. This may be an interesting and volatile week ahead, with the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a slough of large companies reporting third-quarter earnings.

Key Support and Resistance Levels Now

Nothing has materially changed from last week’s resistance levels as the bulls have made little progress. Heavy resistance is still sitting at $117,600 and $122,000 above there, so the bears aren’t feeling any real pressure yet. If by chance this week gets above $122,000, we will look to the upper boundary of our broadening wedge pattern at $128,000.

Holding above the prior week’s low is a positive sign for the bulls, while they managed to maintain price above the key short-term support of $106,900 last week as well. This level must hold going forward, as closing below $106,900 opens the door back down to the $105,000 to $102,000 support zone that has already been tested twice. A third test of this support zone would be more likely to break it than to hold it. $96,000 is the long-term bull market support below here, a do-or-die support level if the price were to slide down and test it.

Outlook For This Week

Expect significant volatility this week, especially on Wednesday, as we have the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and ensuing Powell speech, followed by major earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, and Google after market close. Bulls will look to hold $109,000 as a floor into this week, as doing so would position them to maintain upward momentum. Looking at the Momentum Reversal Indicator, we are currently sitting on an 8-count entering Monday. This is a warning candle that we may see momentum begin to fade. Tuesday should bring the 9-count at which point we should expect at least a pause on upward momentum and a 1 to 4 day correction in price. So if bulls can push price up to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement at $117,600 by Monday night or Tuesday morning, we should expect to see a rejection ther,e and we can re-assess after Wednesday’s FOMC and earnings reports play out.

Market mood: Bearish – While the bulls gained some ground last week, the bears remain stoic and strong. The bulls must push the price past $122,000 to take back control.

The next few weeks
If bulls can manage to survive through this week, there are still some potential headwinds on the horizon. The US-China tariff dispute may or may not be resolved by the end of next week; a negative outcome will likely send all markets lower. Additionally, the US courts’ ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs is expected by November 5th. If these tariffs are reinstated, we should expect markets to head lower to price this impact in.

Terminology Guide:

Bulls/Bullish: Buyers or investors expecting the price to go higher.

Bears/Bearish: Sellers or investors expecting the price to go lower.

Support or support level: A level at which the price should hold for the asset, at least initially. The more touches on support, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold the price.

Resistance or resistance level: Opposite of support.  The level that is likely to reject the price, at least initially. The more touches at resistance, the weaker it gets and the more likely it is to fail to hold back the price.

Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions: Ratios based on what is known as the golden ratio, a universal ratio pertaining to growth and decay cycles in nature. The golden ratio is based on the constants Phi (1.618) and phi (0.618).

Broadening Wedge: A chart pattern consisting of an upper trend line acting as resistance and a lower trend line acting as support. These trend lines must diverge away from each other in order to validate the pattern. This pattern is a result of expanding price volatility, typically resulting in higher highs and lower lows.

Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI): A proprietary indicator created by Tone Vays. The MRI indicator tracks buyer and seller momentum and exhaustion, providing signals to indicate when to expect momentum to fade and accelerate.

This post Bitcoin Closes at $114,530 Amid FOMC Volatility: Bulls Eye $117,600 Resistance first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Ethan Greene - Feral Analysis and Juan Galt.