Bitcoin Magazine

TD Cowen Sees Strategy ($MSTR) Under Pressure as MSCI Index Review Looms

TD Cowen analysts say Strategy’s stock could face continued pressure due to an impending MSCI review. 

The firm expects that PBTCs like Strategy will be removed from all MSCI indexes this February. A formal decision is expected around mid-January.

Cowen called the potential removal “capricious” but emphasized that investors should prepare for sustained selling pressure. The analysts note that Strategy is not a fund, trust, or holding company. Instead, it is a public operating company. Its $500 million software business generates all of its revenue. 

Meanwhile, its Bitcoin treasury operations are innovative and active, offering unique Bitcoin-backed securities.

“Removing Strategy from broad indexes simply because of its Bitcoin focus feels arbitrary,” the analysts wrote. Cowen questioned whether MSCI’s rationale reflects a bias against crypto rather than any strict classification criteria. MSCI has cited concerns that PBTCs may resemble investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. 

Cowen counters that Strategy’s structure is clearly different.

Strategy and MSCI exclusion

The stakes are high. JPMorgan recently warned that excluding Strategy from MSCI could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows. If other indexes follow, the total could reach $8.8 billion. Strategy’s market cap currently sits near $59 billion, with roughly $9 billion held in passive index-tracking vehicles. 

Any forced selling could exacerbate an already depressed share price, JPMorgan argued. 

Strategy’s shares have fallen more than Bitcoin in recent months. The company’s mNAV — the ratio of market value to Bitcoin holdings — has dropped to just above 1.1, its lowest since the pandemic. Investors have seen the stock decline over 60% since last November. Its preferred shares and bond issuances have also sold off sharply.

Despite the volatility, Cowen recently long-maintained a bullish long-term outlook. The bank estimated thatthe company could hold 815,000 BTC by 2027. At that level, intrinsic Bitcoin value per share could support a price target of $585, implying roughly 170% upside from current levels. 

Cowen attributes the recent weakness to market volatility and index-related fears, rather than a failure of Strategy’s core accumulation model.

Michael Saylor, Strategy’s chairman, dismissed index concerns. In a recent statement, he emphasized that the company is a fully operating business with active software and Bitcoin-backed credit programs. Saylor has repeatedly highlighted its innovative financial products, including structured Bitcoin credit instruments like $STRK and $STRC, which offer yields above traditional credit markets.

Saylor envisions accumulating $1 trillion in Bitcoin and growing the company 20–30% annually, leveraging long-term appreciation to create a massive store of digital collateral. 

From this base, Saylor plans to issue Bitcoin-backed credit at yields significantly higher than traditional fiat systems, potentially 2–4% above corporate or sovereign debt, offering safer, over-collateralized alternatives. 

Saylor believes that other large scale traditional finance companies can follow the Strategy model with their income. 

Cowen also points to potential tailwinds. A possible inclusion in the S&P 500 could broaden institutional ownership and stabilize flows into the stock. Additional regulatory clarity around Bitcoin could further bolster investor confidence.

Strategy’s rise underscores the growing role of Bitcoin in global finance. Its inclusion in indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI benchmarks has historically funneled crypto exposure into mainstream portfolios. 

If MSCI excludes the company, Cowen argues, the market may see short-term disruption but long-term adoption trends remain intact.

Bitcoin itself has struggled over the past month, dropping from an October high above $126,000 to around $88,000 recently. Even amid this sell-off, Strategy continues to execute large Bitcoin purchases, now holding more than 3% of total supply.

Bitcoin bulls need to keep the price above $84,000 after last week’s close. If it falls, weak support sits near $75,000, with stronger buying likely in the $72,000–$69,000 zone. A deeper drop targets the “$58k gang” area around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $57,700.

MSTR is up over 4% today trading at $177.47.

This post TD Cowen Sees Strategy ($MSTR) Under Pressure as MSCI Index Review Looms first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

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Strategy’s (MSTR) Michael Saylor Dismisses Index Concerns: ‘Our Conviction in Bitcoin is Unwavering’

Michael Saylor pushed back on recent reports warning that Strategy could face billions in passive outflows if MSCI excludes the company from major equity indices.

In a statement on X, Saylor said that Strategy is “not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company.” He described the firm as a publicly traded operating company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.

Saylor highlighted the company’s recent activity, including five public offerings of digital credit securities — $STRK, $STRF, $STRD, $STRC, and $STRE — representing over $7.7 billion in notional value. 

He also pointed to Stretch ($STRC), a Bitcoin-backed credit instrument that offers variable monthly USD yields to institutional and retail investors.

“Funds and trusts passively hold assets. Holding companies sit on investments. We create, structure, issue, and operate,” Saylor wrote. “No passive vehicle or holding company could do what we’re doing.” 

He described Strategy as a new kind of enterprise: a Bitcoin-backed structured finance company innovating in both capital markets and software.

Saylor added that index classification does not define the company. “Our strategy is long-term, our conviction in Bitcoin is unwavering, and our mission remains unchanged: to build the world’s first digital monetary institution on a foundation of sound money and financial innovation.”

Will Strategy get removed from Nasdaq 100? 

The statement comes as JPMorgan analysts warned that MSCI’s potential exclusion of Strategy from major indices could trigger $2.8 billion in outflows, rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow. 

Strategy’s market cap sits around $59 billion, with nearly $9 billion held in passive index-tracking vehicles. Analysts said any exclusion could increase selling pressure, widen funding spreads, and reduce trading liquidity.

Strategy’s inclusion in indices such as the Nasdaq 100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World has long helped channel the Bitcoin trade into mainstream portfolios. However, MSCI is reportedly evaluating whether companies with large digital-asset holdings should remain in traditional equity benchmarks. 

Market participants increasingly see digital-asset-heavy companies as closer to investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion.

Despite all the recent bitcoin volatility and concerns about potential outflows, the company continues to pursue its long-term vision of a Bitcoin-backed financial enterprise, aiming to create new financial products and a digitally native monetary institution.

On October 10, bitcoin and the broader crypto market crashed. Some believe it was because Trump threatened tariffs on China, but some contend that the broader crash was triggered when MSCI announced it was reviewing whether companies that hold crypto as a core business, like MSTR, should be classified as “funds” rather than operating companies. Some contend that ‘smart money’ anticipated this risk immediately after MSCI’s announcement, leading to the sharp market drop, with the outcome now hinging on MSCI’s January 15, 2026 decision.

Trillions of dollars in Bitcoin 

Earlier this year in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Saylor outlined an ambitious vision to build a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet, using it as a foundation to reshape global finance. 

He envisions accumulating $1 trillion in Bitcoin and growing it 20–30% annually, leveraging long-term appreciation to create a massive store of digital collateral. 

From this base, Saylor plans to issue Bitcoin-backed credit at yields significantly higher than traditional fiat systems, potentially 2–4% above corporate or sovereign debt, offering safer, over-collateralized alternatives. 

He anticipates this could revitalize credit markets, equity indexes, and corporate balance sheets while creating new financial products, including higher-yield savings accounts, money market funds, and insurance services denominated in Bitcoin. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is experiencing extreme levels of sell pressure and its price is dipping near the $80,000 range. Bitcoin’s all-time high came only six weeks ago when it hit prices above $126,000.

Strategy’s stock, $MSTR, is trading at $167.95 down over 5% on the day and over 15% over the last five trading days.

This post Strategy’s (MSTR) Michael Saylor Dismisses Index Concerns: ‘Our Conviction in Bitcoin is Unwavering’ first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

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Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) Reports $2.8B Q3 Net Income, Bitcoin Gains Soar

Michael Saylor’s Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) released its third-quarter earnings after market close on Oct. 30, posting net income of $2.8 billion. 

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $8.42, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.15. As of Oct. 26, 2025, Strategy held 640,808 BTC, acquired for a total of $47.44 billion at an average price of $74,032 per coin. 

The company reported a year-to-date Bitcoin yield of 26%, generating $12.9 billion in gains amid the ongoing 2025 crypto bull market.

Looking forward, Strategy projects full-year 2025 operating income of $34 billion and net income of $24 billion, or $80 per share — highlighting its transformation from a business intelligence firm into a de facto corporate Bitcoin investment vehicle.

Total revenues for Q3 reached $128.7 million, up 10.9% year-over-year and above the $118.43 million analysts had forecast.

The firm’s Bitcoin holdings have already produced gains of 116,555 BTC in 2025, translating to $12.9 billion in dollar terms based on an average BTC price of roughly $110,600 as of Oct. 24, nearing its full-year target of $20 billion.

Michael Saylor is the epitome of a bitcoin bull

Michael Saylor said recently at Money 20/20, “By the time the bankers tell you it’s a good idea, it’ll cost $10 million per Bitcoin.” He added that Bitcoin is currently at a “99% discount.”

NEW: Michael Saylor says, “By the time the bankers tell you it’s a good idea, it’ll cost $10 million per Bitcoin.”

It’s at a “99% discount” right now. pic.twitter.com/qaH4pF9xVj

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 30, 2025

And Saylor’s public discourse towards bitcoin backs this belief up. Saylor reiterated his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, projecting $150,000 by the end of 2025 and up to $1 million within four to eight years.

He cited growing institutional adoption, driven by industry shifts, new investment products, and Strategy’s recent B-minus credit rating, as key catalysts. 

Saylor highlighted Strategy’s digital credit instruments offering 8–12.5% yields, tax-efficient returns, and tailored risk profiles. He noted increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by major U.S. banks and praised supportive regulatory policies. 

Strategy with a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet

In a recent interview with Bitcoin Magazine, Michael Saylor outlined his ambitious vision for Strategy: building a trillion-dollar Bitcoin balance sheet to transform global finance. 

Saylor sees his firm — and potentially other Bitcoin treasury companies — accumulating massive Bitcoin holdings, leveraging the cryptocurrency’s historical 21% annual appreciation to supercharge capital growth.

Central to his plan is the creation of Bitcoin-backed credit markets offering yields significantly higher than traditional fiat debt. By over-collateralizing capital, Saylor argues the system could be safer than AAA corporate debt while providing healthier returns for investors. 

This approach, he suggests, could revitalize credit markets worldwide, offering alternatives to low-yield bonds that dominate Europe and Japan.

Saylor also envisions Bitcoin becoming embedded across corporate, banking, and sovereign balance sheets, gradually turning traditional equity indexes into indirect Bitcoin vehicles. 

This integration could boost public companies, redefine savings accounts and money market funds, and allow tech giants like Apple and Google to bring hundreds of millions into the digital economy.

Those interested in learning more about Strategy’s earnings report can watch in full detail here.

This post Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) Reports $2.8B Q3 Net Income, Bitcoin Gains Soar first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Micah Zimmerman.

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