A new forecast projects that defense spending will keep rising through 2035, while civilian agencies face years of flat or shrinking budgets, continued cuts and growing pressure to scale back. 

The Professional Services Council’s latest federal market forecast, compiled with input from more than 400 industry volunteers and subject-matter experts, predicts that in an environment where legislative logjam is likely to persist, defense spending will continue rising at roughly 2% annually after its first $1 trillion budget in fiscal 2026 — a one-time spike driven by reconciliation —  while cuts will “continue to fall disproportionately on civil agencies until elections change the balance of power.”

“What this means in practical terms is that the fiscal environment for the next decade will be tight, competitive, highly dependent on supplemental funding, reconciliation and prone to crisis-driven appropriations. Base budgets alone will struggle to drive new initiatives, especially on the non-defense side. In this environment, as one of our interviewees suggested, it’s best to keep your customers close and your congressional supporters and lobbyists closer,” Mike Riley, a volunteer for PSC’s Vision Federal Market Forecast told reporters last week.

In the defense space, PSC volunteers said their discussions with defense stakeholders revealed a shift, or “strategic realignment,” in the Pentagon’s priorities. While the Indo-Pacific Command remains of “elevated importance,” the Northern Command and Southern Command are gaining new emphasis as the department puts greater focus on homeland, border security and expands its presence in Latin America and the Caribbean. 

“This year was a bit of an interesting year for us. A lot of defense folks acknowledge the growing importance under this administration, but also a lot of consternation about the directions the administration might be going and just kind of the lack of clarity. There’s some continuing trends — deterring China, integrated deterrence, that pivot to the Pacific — that’s an ongoing thing that didn’t change from the previous administration. Of course, border security, the Department finds itself in an uncomfortable position,” Jason Dombrowski, a volunteer for PSC’s Vision Federal Market Forecast, said.

“They are getting a little bit more heavily involved in domestic politics than they would otherwise prefer to. Certainly, they always reiterated their intent to be responsive to the commander in chief. But historically, of course, the American military has tried to avoid a domestic role,” he added.

The department is also placing greater emphasis on the Golden Dome missile defense system, shipbuilding and munitions under this administration.

“I think everyone’s been paying attention to the news that there has been some very notable plus ups and focuses of this administration, most notably around shipbuilding, but also to include things like nuclear modernization, which in previous years we had highlighted as a potential toss up, but this year definitely moved into the winners category,” Dombrowski said.

Acquisition reform

The Defense Department also moves to implement Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s sweeping acquisition reforms, which emphasize greater competition, faster delivery and making commercial technology the default option. It’s unclear whether the department has the ability to implement those changes given deep personnel cuts across the contracting workforce.

“The contracting professionals — there seems to be a large reduction. How do we get this done? That fundamental capacity to get things done is really going to make a difference, whether you’re putting out contracts, supply chain, workforce throughput … It’s going to affect how we can actually help out the government. Adaptability is the name of the game,”Jim Kainz, a PSC volunteer, said.

In addition, the department’s new acquisition strategy promises to lower barriers to entry to encourage startups and non-traditional vendors to join the defense industrial base. Dombrowski said that while stakeholders are cautiously optimistic about the reforms, there is also a “healthy cynicism of saying, ‘How is this time any different?’” 

“This administration has made a big priority of trying to attract new people, and we looked at the pros and cons of it. It’s probably worth noting that, aside from a few very notable successes that we can all figure out, there hasn’t really been much movement in this regard,” Dombrowski said. 

“We’re very excited, certainly [Commercial Solutions Opening] and [Other Transaction Authority] and just a variety of things that should provide a lot of flexibility, but let’s see it,” he added.

Winner and losers

Dombrowski and Kainz said several areas emerged as clear “losers” in this year’s defense outlook, including the department’s buying power, which continues to erode as inflation and reshoring efforts drive up costs across programs.

Legacy systems and advisory and assistance services are facing cuts, and U.S. Africa Command and Central Command are being pushed lower on the priority list as resources shift toward European Command.

There is also uncertainty around operations and maintenance funding, which Dombrowski and Kainz said remains a major concern for both think tanks and potential customers. Sustainability initiatives appear to be split — the “green side of sustainability” will most certainly lose ground, while efforts tied to energy resilience may gain momentum. 

Contested logistics, once considered a toss-up, is gaining traction as a priority, and scalability — the ability to rapidly increase production in a crisis — is emerging as a clear winner across the department.

Overall, research and development spending is increasing, but only in areas related to advanced weapon systems, technologies, drones and energy. 

“However, there’s a belief and a growing expectation that the contracting community will bear more of those responsibilities,” Dombrowski said. “It’s really unclear where that line is going to be drawn between things that are really government exclusive where DoD is willing to pick up all costs associated to it. There are things we can all imagine, like fighter jets. But what about things that are more in the gray areas? Avionics, business process systems, back-office systems, things like that — definitely more of a sense that we are going to have to be developing those on our own.”

If you would like to contact this reporter about recent changes in the federal government, please email anastasia.obis@federalnewsnetwork.com or reach out on Signal at (301) 830-2747.

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Interview transcript:

 

Stephanie Kostro It is the end of the calendar year, beginning of the government fiscal year. And this is the time of year when a lot of companies take a step back and evaluate their business strategy and their planning for the next few years. We see a lot folks having off-sites in December or in January to do some of this strategic planning and I’ll be frank with you, I think a lot people will be happy to see 2025 end. And they will celebrate the new year in all sorts of ways, just because of what they’ve been through this year. If your listeners can harken back to earlier this year, the efficiency initiatives really did a number on a lot of the business plans that had been developed among government contracting companies. Some of them had massive de-scoping of their contracts. Some of them had contract terminations. Some, particularly those who worked for agencies like U.S. Agency for International Development, and the Department of Education, some at Health and Human Services really saw a diminution of their planned objectives for throughout the year. And so as we go into the December and January planning cycle for these companies, what they’re really looking for are signs from the government that there is work coming as they start to think through what calendar ’26 looks like. And they start to do their resource planning for personnel and for bid teams to put together proposals. That’s really what they are looking for. And I will have to say, Terry, earlier this year. PSC, the Professional Services Council, we represent services and solutions providers. And typically every year we put together something called our business forecast, which looks at our scorecard, which looks at all of the web-based procurement forecasts put out by agencies. And we would look at tens of agencies and their forecasts and we would rate them based on 15 key attributes, which we developed in industry, about what is useful for those forecasts. This year in 2025, we made the decision that instead of putting out our seventh annual forecast, we skipped this year. The forecasts just weren’t there, and they’re still not there.

Terry Gerton So how is it that agencies put those forecasts out, and what do they base it on? And I guess the third part of that question is, why aren’t they there?

Stephanie Kostro This was a mandate from, among others, from the Office of Federal Procurement Policy, which is a White House office that said, hey, agencies, to the extent that you can, put out forecasts on your websites. And it was really to help drive new companies to join the federal marketplace and to keep those companies that are part of the GovCon community interested. If you could look at a website and say, okay, there is an opportunity coming up in Q1, Q2, Q3, and let’s build towards that opportunity. What happened earlier this year is a lot of those websites went dark. I think it was because as part of the efficiency initiative, it was no longer a useful tool because things were moving very, very quickly. What I find interesting though, is that those websites are still dark. They’re still not there. And so I’m not entirely sure how our government contracting community can put together a reliable business strategy for 2026 and beyond in the absence of that information.

Terry Gerton Well, some estimates are that the contracting workforce itself has been reduced by over 25%. Are we just missing the people who used to do this?

Stephanie Kostro I think that’s part of it, Terry. We’re missing some of the folks who took that deferred resignation or the “fork in the road” option. Some of them did the voluntary early retirement programs. I would also say in many agencies, and I’ll use the phrase “OSDBU”, but I’ll actually speak out the acronym here, the Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization. Those were usually the offices that had the lead on publishing these websites, and those offices have sort of been dismantled in some agencies. They are certainly de-emphasized in a lot of the agencies. And so it might be … they’re missing the people, that is true, but it’s also they’re also missing the offices that have the lead on putting together these forecasts. And it really is a shame because, you know, the business community uses these forecasts in so many different ways. It helps them do, I mentioned the business planning, but helps them figure out who they want to partner with, who’s going to be their subcontractors or their suppliers, their vendors, etc. This is a real gap in understanding of what the federal marketplace can offer companies. And I do think it will have effects on whether commercial companies want to get involved in government work. They just don’t know what the opportunities are.

Terry Gerton I’m speaking with Stephanie Kostro, president of the Professional Services Council. Stephanie, one more question on this. I mean, GSA has gone through a lot of work to centralize procurement and forecasting. Would you expect that GSA will take this over perhaps and share their forecast?

Stephanie Kostro I love that you asked this question, Terry, because as I mentioned the last time we put out our forecast, it was in 2024 and we had actually at PSC highlighted GSA as a model for putting out these forecasts. We mentioned that GSA has something called their Acquisition Gateway, which sets a high bar for government business forecasting and it encourages the migration to the GSA tool for other departments. So Department of Labor, Department of Justice, they were using the GSA Acquisitions Gateway. So I think this is a fantastic opportunity to go back to that gateway and have GSA take the lead.

Terry Gerton Speaking of forecasts, PSC’s got a big session coming up starting on December 1st. Your vision federal market forecast. Tell us about that.

Stephanie Kostro I love that our entire segment here is devoted to forecasting, because the procurement dork in me is celebrating here. So PSC has this conference and it’s actually run by our foundation, which is our 501c3 nonprofit affiliate dedicated to education. And so it is a year-long process where we have so many teams come together. There are 21 different study teams, they focus on things like Health and Human Services, or Customs and Border Protection as part of the Homeland Security team. And this year of agency discussions, they speak to think tank folks, they speak procurement officials within the government, and it culminates in this conference and it’s happening in person on December 1st. It’s a virtual day for December 2nd and 3rd. It is where these 21 different study teams present their findings. So it’s not just tied to a web-based procurement forecast, but rather these discussions that they’re having with officials. We had over 400 volunteers as part of this process, and I’m just very excited. It is a great opportunity to really hear what’s going on in the procurement world, not just for opportunities, but what the dynamics look like, what impact inflation is having, etc. And to be honest, what impact these efficiency initiatives have had on the federal marketplace. So I highly recommend this conference. Again, it’s December 1st through the 3rd, and December 1 is the only in-person day here in Arlington.

Terry Gerton It sounds like in the absence of the agency forecast that we were talking about at the beginning of our conversation, this may be a great opportunity for contractors, those who are considering government work, to find out from inside sources what’s going on.

Stephanie Kostro It’s a perfect opportunity to get some business intelligence. It’s also a great networking opportunity because we do have government folks come to this conference as well to hear about what other agencies are doing. And so I highly commend it to folks who are listening, but I’m certainly going to be there and soaking up all of the knowledge that I can. I’m particularly looking forward to the Defense Services presentation in light of the Secretary of War Hegseth and his arsenal of freedom speech that he gave about transforming the processes for requirements and acquisition. I’m really looking forward to that. And I always look forward sort of to the top-line and the IT modernization teams as well. So if I were going to recommend three sessions, those are the top three. But they’re all very, very interesting and I’m looking forward to it.

Terry Gerton So how do people who want to attend find out about it and register?

Stephanie Kostro They can go to PSCouncil.org, and you can also search for Vision Federal Market Forecast and the sessions will pop up. There is a fee, obviously, for this, but it is open to the public. It is a widely attended gathering which allows government folks to attend. That is how they can connect with this conference.

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