XRP, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency in the market, experienced a notable flash crash on October 10th, plummeting toward $1.25, with a subsequent decline last week bringing it down to $1.82. 

Fast-forward to the end of the month: The digital currency has reclaimed some ground and surpassed the $2 mark in the past 24 hours. However, obstacles remain that could hinder XRP’s rally, as analyst Sean Williams of The Motley Fool has noted.

Major Catalysts Behind XRP’s Price Surge This Year

In a recent report, Williams pointed out that while XRP has rallied by 34% over the past year, compared to Bitcoin’s (BTC) 14% retracement, the path ahead is fraught with challenges. 

However, when examining the token’s price performance, which surpassed that of the other top 10 cryptocurrencies year-to-date, Williams identified one of the most significant catalysts for XRP’s rise as occurring last year when President Donald Trump was re-elected.

Additionally, the resolution of the litigation between Ripple— the company behind XRP— and the US government has played a crucial role in boosting the altcoin’s value. 

The approval of spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US also contributed to its upward momentum, alongside the increasing utility of RippleNet, which is used by over 300 financial institutions globally, some relying on XRP as a bridge currency for cross-border transactions.

Looking ahead, Wall Street analysts, including Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered, have set an ambitious XRP price target of $12.50 by 2028, which would imply a major upside of over 500% for the altcoin in the next three years. 

However, Williams cautions that with a clearer understanding of the factors that have driven the cryptocurrency’s recent successes, several headwinds could derail its potential rally, possibly sending its price back to $1 by 2026.

Key Challenges Ahead For The Altcoin

A critical challenge for XRP in the coming year is the absence of new catalysts. Williams asserted that with significant cash flows into these ETFs now behind, the leading altcoin may find it difficult to maintain momentum in 2026.

Another hurdle is the reality of the altcoin’s adoption rates, which may not be as impressive as some proponents claim. While over 300 institutions are using RippleNet, it pales in comparison to the more than 11,000 institutions utilizing the SWIFT system for cross-border payments. 

Given this landscape, the token faces an uphill battle in trying to replace SWIFT, particularly as RippleNet does not necessitate the use of XRP for transactions. 

Additionally, while the altcoin boasts an average settlement time of three to five seconds—a significant improvement over traditional methods, which can take up to a week—alternative cryptocurrencies like Solana (SOL) and Stellar (XLM) also offer competitive transaction speeds. 

Lastly, the token’s price is also influenced by broader equity market trends. While cryptocurrencies and stocks are typically separate trading assets, they have recently moved in tandem with Wall Street. 

As illustrated by the S&P 500’s Shiller Price-to-Earnings Ratio peaking at 41.20 in late October, the stock market appears historically overpriced. Williams asserts that if the S&P 500 undergoes a correction or bear market, it is likely that cryptocurrencies, including XRP, will follow suit.

At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $2.19, recording a nearly 9% price recovery over the past week. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com