Bitcoin Magazine

Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.

Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support

Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.

The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.

The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.

Multi-Cycle Confluence Signals Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Approaching

Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.

In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.

Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets

From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already

Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), the bitcoin price stands at a critical macroeconomic inflection point. With odds for a December rate cut now pricing it in as almost a certainty, the stage is set for a potential shift in monetary policy that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader risk assets. History suggests that when the Fed’s balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin typically experiences significant bullish catalysts.

Balance Sheet Reversals and the Bitcoin Price

The Fed balance sheet versus Bitcoin chart reveals a compelling pattern. Over Bitcoin’s history, there have been only three previous instances where QT ended and the federal balance sheet began flatlining or expanding. The first occurred on October 27, 2010, followed almost immediately by a massive Bitcoin bull rally. The second instance on September 26, 2012, again resulted in an explosive rally into the 2013 double-peak cycle. The third signal came in 2019, though this one was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic and initial market crash—yet it eventually drove Bitcoin from around $3,000 to over $67,000.

Business Cycle Impact on Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s recent stagnation despite rising Global M2 suggests that monetary liquidity alone isn’t driving prices. Instead, the asset appears increasingly correlated with traditional business cycle indicators, particularly the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This metric measures manufacturing confidence and economic activity, and its correlation with S&P 500 yearly returns is striking: when PMI rises, equities typically deliver outsized returns; when PMI falls, markets enter periods of underperformance or recession.

A leading indicator for PMI trends is the copper-to-gold ratio. This relationship is nearly perfectly correlated, but copper often leads, bottoming ahead of PMI rallies and topping before PMI declines. Currently, the Copper/Gold ratio appears to be bottoming out, aligning with the historical timeline of Fed balance sheet reversals. This suggests the traditional business cycle may be about to turn favorable again after a period of economic softening.

Conclusion: Next Move for Bitcoin Price

The end of QT, combined with a resurgent Copper/Gold ratio and historical precedent spanning Bitcoin’s entire existence, suggests that monetary conditions are about to become materially more favorable. While Bitcoin has recently lagged traditional assets, this underperformance appears tied to deteriorating economic confidence rather than fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself. As both monetary policy and business cycle indicators potentially turn positive, the confluence of these forces could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal. Bitcoin stands positioned to benefit from this dual tailwind, making the coming weeks and months critical for monitoring whether these historical signals finally translate into sustained price appreciation.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle

Bitcoin price’s most popular top-calling indicators failed to trigger during the latest bull market, leaving observers questioning whether the underlying data is now broken. This analysis examines several widely used tools, explores why they underperformed this cycle, and outlines how they can be adapted to Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools

On the Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools indicator, the latest bull market never reached several historically reliable top models such as Delta Top, Terminal Price, and Top Cap, with the latter not even touched in the prior cycle. The Bitcoin Investor Tool, which uses a 2-year moving average multiplied by 5, also remained untested, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator failed to provide precise timing or price signals despite being closely watched by many traders. This has led to understandable questions around whether these models have stopped working or whether Bitcoin’s behavior has outgrown them.

Bitcoin is an evolving asset with a changing market structure, liquidity, and participant mix. Rather than assuming the data is broken, it may be more appropriate to adapt the metrics to a different lens and time horizon. The goal is not to abandon these tools, but to make them more robust and responsive to a market that no longer delivers the same exponential upside and violent cycle tops as earlier years.

Bitcoin Price: From Fixed Thresholds to Dynamic Signals

The MVRV Z-Score 2-Year Rolling metric has been a core tool for identifying overheated conditions, but in this cycle, it did not call the bull market peak particularly well. It registered a major spike as Bitcoin first pushed through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, yet failed to give a clean exit signal for the later stages of the advance. Currently, the metric is printing the most oversold readings on record.

To address this shortcoming, the MVRV Z-Score can be recalibrated on a 6-month rolling basis rather than two years, making it more sensitive to recent conditions while still anchored in realized value dynamics. Alongside the shorter lookback, it is helpful to move away from fixed thresholds and instead use dynamic distribution-based bands. By mapping the percentage of days spent above or below different Z-Score levels, it becomes possible to mark zones such as the top 5%, as well as the bottom 5% on the downside. During this cycle, Bitcoin did register signals in the upper bands as it first broke above $100,000, and historically, moves into the top 5% region have coincided reasonably well with cycle peaks, even if they did not capture the exact tick high.

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Bitcoin Price: Faster-Reaction Metrics for Today’s Cycle

Beyond valuation tools, activity-based indicators like Coin Days Destroyed can be made more useful by shortening their lookback periods. A 90-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed has historically tracked large waves of long-term holder distribution, but the more muted and choppy nature of the current cycle means that a 30-day moving average is often more informative. With Bitcoin no longer delivering the same parabolic moves, metrics need to react faster to reflect today’s shallower yet still important waves of profit-taking and investor rotation.

Excluding the latest readings and focusing on the advance up to the all-time high of this cycle, the 30-day Coin Days Destroyed metric flashed almost exactly at the cycle peak. It also triggered earlier as Bitcoin first crossed roughly $73,000–$74,000, and again when price moved through $100,000, effectively flagging all key distribution waves. While this is easy to observe in hindsight, it reinforces that on-chain supply and demand signals remain relevant; the task is to calibrate them to current volatility regimes and market depth.

Bitcoin Price Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides another lens on realised profit-taking, but the raw series can be noisy, with sharp spikes, frequent mean reversion, and large moves both during rallies and during intra-bull capitulations. To extract more actionable information, a 28-day (monthly) change in SOPR can be used instead. This smoothed alternative highlights when the pace of profit realisation is accelerating to extreme levels over a short window, cutting through the noise of intra-cycle volatility.

Applied to the latest cycle, the monthly SOPR change produced distinct peaks as Bitcoin first moved through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, again above $100,000, and once more around the $120,000 region. While none of these perfectly captured the final wick high, they each marked phases of intense profit-taking pressure consistent with cycle exhaustion. Using monthly changes rather than the raw metric makes the signal clearer, especially when combined with cross-asset views of Bitcoin’s purchasing power versus equities and Gold.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Conclusion: Adapt or Fall Behind

In hindsight, many popular top-calling indicators did work throughout this bull market when measured through the right lens and on appropriate timeframes. The key principle remains: react to the data, do not attempt to predict. Rather than waiting for any single metric to perfectly call the top, a basket of adapted indicators, interpreted through the lens of purchasing power and changing market dynamics, can increase the probability of identifying when Bitcoin is overheating and when it is transitioning into a more favorable accumulation phase. The coming months will focus on refining these models to ensure they remain viable not just historically, but robustly accurate going forward.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Why Didn’t The Bitcoin Top Calling Metrics Work?

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

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Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market?

Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several important technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. That can change quickly if major levels are reclaimed, but until then, the conditions resemble a market shifting away from trending strength and toward a deeper corrective phase.

Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still the Right Move?

Bitcoin is already in a sizeable pullback, but buying every decline isn’t always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear-market environment, what appear to be attractive dips can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so reacting to data rather than pre-emptively predicting a bottom becomes far more important.

This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze the Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced once BTC reclaimed STH Realized Price levels.  

There is one caveat: if price meaningfully reclaims key levels, the entire picture shifts. That’s why a small allocation on this dip can make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.

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Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Must Watch Right Now

The MVRV Z-Score and the Bitcoin Realized Price give a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost basis sits. The realized cost basis of the network currently clusters around the mid-$50,000s, but this figure continues rising on a daily basis.

A similar narrative emerges from the 200-Week Moving Average, as this also currently sits in the mid-$50,000. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Those levels rise slowly each day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin spends trending downward. The important point is that value tends to emerge when spot price trades close to the average historical cost of the network, and confluence is provided from key levels of buy support.

Bitcoin Price: What Supply & Demand Signals Are Really Saying

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important metric in identifying stress points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings suggest large, old coins are not moving, which has often aligned with market bottoms. A sharp spike, however, can indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes significant market turning points.

Right now, the metric continues rising as price falls, suggesting many holders are distributing into weakness. That’s not characteristic of a cycle bottom, where forced selling is usually extreme and compressed into a short window. At this stage, the market still appears to be unwinding rather than exhausting. Alongside this, Long-Term Holder Supply has been in a downtrend. Ideally, this stabilises and begins to increase again before calling any major bottom, as bottoms form when the most patient participants begin holding, not exiting.

Bitcoin Price: What Funding Rates Reveal About Capitulation (Or Lack Thereof)

Periods of peak fear tend to show up clearly through heavy short positioning, negative funding as shown in the Bitcoin Funding Rates, and large realized losses. Those conditions signal that weaker hands have capitulated, and stronger hands are absorbing that supply.

The market has not yet shown the signature panic selling and shorting often associated with major cyclical lows. Without stress in derivatives and without a rush of loss-taking, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully flushed out.

Bitcoin Price: The Exact Levels That Must Be Reclaimed to Kill the Bear Case

Suppose the bearish scenario is wrong, which of course would be the preferred outcome. In that case, Bitcoin needs to begin reclaiming key structural levels, including the $100,000 psychological zone, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the 350-day moving average as depicted in the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.

Temporary wicks or single-day closes are not enough. Sustained closes above these levels, along with strength in risk assets globally, would suggest the trend is shifting. But until that happens, the data leans cautious.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Final Thoughts on Dip vs. New Bear Market

Since breaking below several important levels, the outlook has become more defensive. There’s no structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure doesn’t resemble a healthy bull trend.

For now, the recommended strategy consists of not buying at every dip, waiting for confluence before heavy scaling in, respecting macro conditions and ratio trends, and only turning aggressive once the market proves strength. Most investors never identify the exact top or bottom; the goal is to position near areas of high probability with enough confirmation to avoid months of unnecessary drawdown.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: My Bitcoin Strategy Going Forward

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Outlook for Reaching $1 Million Valuation

Bitcoin price long-term trajectory has been extraordinary. In just over a decade, it has risen from a few hundred dollars to more than $100,000, creating one of the most dramatic wealth transfers in modern history. But the question now dominating investors’ minds is whether BTC can extend this exponential growth, potentially even to seven figures. And if so, when?

Bitcoin Price Fundamental Value

Few models have generated as much controversy as Stock-to-Flow. Once hailed as the roadmap for Bitcoin’s price, it fell out of favor after failing to predict post-halving performance in recent cycles. But while the model itself may no longer hold predictive power, its core premise, that Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity drives long-term value, remains valid.

Rather than relying on rigid mathematical projections, a more grounded approach is to look at Bitcoin’s production cost: the estimated electrical expense required to mine one BTC. Historically, this metric has acted as a structural floor beneath price. Each halving doubles that cost, tightening the available supply and setting a new base for future appreciation.

Bitcoin Price Production Cost

Based on current efficiency trends and average energy prices, the production cost is expected to rise to around $175,000 per BTC by early 2028, following the next halving. This level has aligned closely with past cycle lows, suggesting that if Bitcoin remains above its cost basis, its fair valuation could approach $200,000 by that time.

Extending this trend, the projected cost to mine one BTC could reach approximately $675,000 by 2032, assuming moderate improvements in miner efficiency and no dramatic changes in Global energy costs. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has peaked at multiples of its production cost, around 9x in 2017, 4.5x in 2021, and roughly 2.25x this cycle. If that diminishing pattern continues, even a 1.5x multiple during the 2032 cycle would place BTC at around $1 million, suggesting that the next major peak could arrive sometime in the mid-2030s.

Bitcoin Price Growth Rate

Looking at Bitcoin’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) since its early exchange listings shows a consistent but gradually slowing curve. When modeled as a linear regression, this trend points to a BTC price of roughly $2 million by 2035, with diminishing returns thereafter. By 2040, the model places Bitcoin somewhere between $5 million and $10 million, depending on the starting data window used.

However, these regression-based models, like the “Power Law” or logarithmic growth curves, all suffer from the same flaw: they are backward-fitted. Their accuracy only exists in hindsight, not necessarily foresight. Even small deviations in data or timeframes can shift long-term projections by years or millions of dollars, making them useful for context but unreliable for precision.

Bitcoin Price Conclusion

While models can provide rough frameworks, Bitcoin’s price ultimately depends on the balance of supply and demand. As new issuance continues to fall and adoption grows, the production cost floor and liquidity environment are likely to remain the strongest long-term anchors. Macroeconomic forces, particularly real yields, monetary expansion, and capital rotation from traditional assets, will continue to determine the pace and scale of Bitcoin’s appreciation.

If Bitcoin follows its historical rhythm, the mid-2030s could mark the era where a seven-figure price becomes reality. But as every cycle has shown, models can guide expectations, they cannot dictate them. The best strategy remains the same as always: react to the data, don’t predict it.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Realistically, Could This Be When Bitcoin Reaches $1 Million

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Outlook for Reaching $1 Million Valuation first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Mathematically Predicting Bitcoin Price Floor

While many are still focused on how high the bitcoin price could go during this current bull market (although given current price action, maybe not!), it’s equally important to prepare for what comes next. Here we’ll look at the data and mathematics that can help us estimate where Bitcoin’s next bear market low could occur — not as a prediction, but as a framework based on prior cycles, on-chain valuation metrics, and even the fundamental valuations of BTC.

Cycle Master: Modeling Historical Bitcoin Price Bottoms

One of the most consistently accurate models for identifying Bitcoin’s cyclical bottoms is what we refer to as the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which collates a number of on-chain metrics to create bands around price with certain valuation levels.

Historically, this green “Cycle Lows” line has pinpointed Bitcoin’s macro bottoms with near perfection. From $160 in 2015 to $3,200 in 2018, and again at $15,500 in late 2022. As of today, this band sits around $43,000 and rising daily, which provides a useful baseline to estimate how far Bitcoin could decline in the next full cycle.

Diminishing Drawdowns: Why Each Bitcoin Price Bear Market Hurts Less

Alongside this, we can look at the raw MVRV Ratio, which measures Bitcoin’s market price versus its realized price (the average cost basis of all coins). Historically, during deep bear markets, Bitcoin tends to fall to 0.75x of its realized price, meaning the market price trades about 25% below the network’s aggregate cost basis.

This repeatability gives us a powerful anchor for estimating potential downside when combined with the trend of diminishing drawdowns. While Bitcoin’s earliest cycles saw declines as deep as 88%, that figure has been steadily compressing, to 80% in 2018 and 75% in 2022. Projecting that same trend forward, a continuation of diminishing volatility would imply that the next bear market could bring a ~70% retracement from cycle highs.

Forecasting the Next Bitcoin Price Top and Bottom

Before we estimate the next low, we need a reasonable assumption for where this bull market could peak. Based on historical MVRV multiples and slope-trended realized price growth, Bitcoin has recently tended to top at roughly 2.5x its realized price. If that relationship holds and the realized price continues trending upward, it suggests a potential top somewhere near $180,000 per BTC in late 2025.

If that’s the case, and Bitcoin were to follow its historical one-year bear market lag into 2027, a 70% retracement from that level would bring the next major cycle low to approximately $55,000–$60,000, based on the current realized price trajectory at that time. These prices also align nicely with Bitcoin’s choppy consolidation range from last year to give some technical confluence.

Bitcoin Price and the Rising Cost of Production

One of the most reliable long-term valuation metrics for Bitcoin is its production cost, the estimated electrical expense to mine one BTC. This metric has historically aligned closely with Bitcoin’s deepest bear market lows. After every halving, the production cost doubles, forming a rising structural floor under the price over time.

When Bitcoin trades below its production cost, it signals miner stress and typically coincides with generational accumulation opportunities. As of the April 2024 halving, the new cost basis rose sharply, and each time Bitcoin has dipped near or slightly below it since, it has marked local bottoms and subsequent sharp reversals. This value currently sits at ~$70,000 but fluctuates daily.

Conclusion: The Next Bitcoin Price Cycle Will Likely Be Shallower

Every Bitcoin cycle has been accompanied by a wave of euphoria claiming, “This time is different.” But the data continues to show otherwise. While institutional adoption and broader financial integration have indeed changed Bitcoin’s structure, they haven’t erased its cyclicality.

The data suggests the next bear market will likely be shallower, reflecting a more mature and liquidity-driven environment. A retracement toward the $55,000–$70,000 zone would not signal collapse, but it would mark the continuation of Bitcoin’s historical rhythm of expansion and reset.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Using Math & Data To Predict The Bitcoin Bear Market Low

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Mathematically Predicting Bitcoin Price Floor first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Slump Could Spark Next Bull Run

Recent bitcoin price action has left many investors frustrated. Despite setting new all-time highs above $120,000 earlier this year, the bitcoin price has struggled to keep pace with equities and Gold in recent months. The S&P 500 and precious metals have surged to new records, while Bitcoin has remained range-bound, giving the impression that it’s lagging behind. But when analyzing the market through a lens of capital rotation, this period of underperformance may not last much longer.

Relative Gains in the Bitcoin Price

While Bitcoin has appeared weak in dollar terms, it remains one of the strongest performers over the past year. BTC has still outperformed both Gold’s 46% and the S&P 500, yet even with that outperformance, the structure of the market makes it feel as though Bitcoin is still under-delivering. Measuring Bitcoin against other assets like equities and Gold rather than the dollar, which is itself depreciating, gives a more accurate view of its purchasing power and real market standing.

When charted against the S&P 500, Bitcoin’s performance shows an interesting divergence. The BTC to S&P ratio reveals that while Bitcoin set new USD highs in 2024, its relative value against equities is only just above the previous cycle’s peak. In other words, Bitcoin’s additional purchasing power has barely expanded. If Bitcoin were to reclaim the previous S&P 500 ratio high of ~19.6, it would equate to a bitcoin price of roughly $135,000, given current equity levels.

Bitcoin Price vs Gold

The Bitcoin to Gold ratio tells a similar story. Despite reaching new highs in dollar terms, BTC actually remains well below its previous cycle’s all-time high when priced in Gold. A full recovery to that ratio would place the bitcoin price near $150,000, and reclaiming the brief 2024 high would push it closer to $160,000. These comparisons help explain why sentiment feels more muted despite record prices. Measured against real-world stores of value, Bitcoin’s performance still trails prior peaks.

However, an interesting dynamic has repeated across multiple cycles. Each time Gold has experienced a sharp rally, Bitcoin has followed with a major bull phase shortly after. The pattern appeared in 2012, 2016, and again in 2020 — Gold rallied first, then Bitcoin followed with exponential gains. These Gold spikes seem to mark the early stages of capital rotation, as liquidity moves from defensive safe havens into more speculative, higher-beta assets like BTC.

Capital Rotation and the Bitcoin Price

That rotation may already be underway again. Gold recently set new highs before losing momentum, while equities have begun to strengthen. Historically, when Gold begins to underperform the S&P 500 after a major rally, it has signaled the start of risk-on conditions in broader markets — the kind that favor Bitcoin.

The same capital rotation that occurs within crypto markets, from stablecoins into Bitcoin, then into large-cap and smaller speculative altcoins, may also occur in traditional markets. Liquidity often flows from fiat and bonds into Gold and then equities, before eventually into risk assets like Bitcoin as investor confidence rises.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Price May Soon Lead Again

Bitcoin remains tightly correlated with the S&P 500, meaning sustained equity strength is one of the most reliable precursors to bitcoin price outperformance. With Gold potentially topping and equities gaining traction, the next few months could mark the beginning of a new phase of risk appetite.

While Bitcoin has felt stagnant and underwhelming in recent weeks, the broader context suggests otherwise. Capital is in motion. The same rotation that has defined every past cycle appears to be setting up once again — and the bitcoin price may soon move from laggard to leader.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Is Underperforming – But Maybe Not For Much Longer

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Slump Could Spark Next Bull Run first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run

The bitcoin price is at a very interesting point in its current market cycle. With lots of different opinions and not much movement in price, it’s hard to know what’s coming next. But when we look at the important data, things get a lot clearer. These signals don’t just tell us what might happen in the immediate future, but can clarify what the coming weeks and months could bring.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price and Bitcoin Price Support

We begin with the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, effectively the average cost basis for new market participants. This level has historically acted as a dynamic zone of support and resistance throughout each cycle. At present, the STH realized price sits around $113,000, close to where Bitcoin is currently trading. Despite the sharp liquidation event earlier this month, the market has rebounded and stabilized around this level.

When Bitcoin holds above the short-term holder realized price, it signals that the average recent buyer is either at breakeven or in slight profit. This often increases investor confidence and encourages additional capital rotation into the market. In past cycles, such as in 2017, every retest of this line provided an ideal accumulation opportunity before the next leg higher. Maintaining support above this could once again mark the foundation for the next phase of the bull cycle.

Understanding The MVRV Ratio and Bitcoin Price Valuation

Beyond the realized price itself, we turn to the Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which measures the relationship between Bitcoin’s current market price and its aggregate realized price. This ratio helps identify over- or undervalued conditions.

Across prior cycles, clear patterns emerge, with Bitcoin consistently finding support around the 0.66 level during large down moves, prime zones for accumulation. On the upside, notable resistance has historically appeared around 1.33, 1.43, and 1.64, corresponding to profit-taking points where new participants reach 33%, 43%, or 64% unrealized gains, respectively.

Using these multiples, we can estimate future targets. By multiplying the current STH Realized Price at ~$113,000 by these MVRV thresholds, we can project potential resistance zones for this cycle. The 1.33 zone generates a projected price of approximately $160,000 for the end of the year. The midway 1.43 zone equates to a projection of ~$170,000, and the upper zone of 1.64 extrapolates to around $200,00. These levels align remarkably well with historical resistance zones, suggesting the $160k–$200k range could act as a major price ceiling if Bitcoin continues to hold above its realized base.

Long-Term Holder MVRV and Bitcoin Price Peaks

Next, we turn to the Long-Term Holder MVRV Ratio, which measures unrealized profit and loss among the market’s most experienced investors. This cohort’s behavior provides key insights into macrocycle dynamics. In the 2017 bull run, LTH MVRV peaked at 36.2. In the 2021 cycle, it peaked at 12.58, roughly a 2.9x reduction, demonstrating the diminishing return structure that has defined Bitcoin’s maturation.

Applying that same diminishing factor (÷2.88) suggests a potential peak around 4.37 for this current cycle. Given that the Long-Term Holder Realized Price sits near $37,400, a 4.37x multiple implies a potential target of roughly $163,000–$165,000, overlapping with the upper targets derived from short-term holder data and levels we’ve already reached this cycle in LTH MVRV terms.

The Rolling MVRV Framework and Bitcoin Price Dynamics

As the Bitcoin market evolves, traditional MVRV metrics must also adapt. One of the most effective approaches is to view these ratios on a rolling basis, which accounts for dynamic changes in market conditions.

When modeled on a 2-Year Rolling basis, the MVRV Z-Score eliminates some of the “diminishing peaks” seen in static models. Peaks around 3.0 and troughs near –1.0 have consistently aligned with market tops and bottoms. Intriguingly, current readings are closer to the buy zone than the sell zone, implying that Bitcoin is still in an accumulation-friendly range.

To gain more granularity, we can also assess the MVRV ratio on a 100-day rolling basis, which captures intra-cycle fluctuations. In this model, spikes above +2 correlate with local tops, while dips below –2 align with local bottoms and optimal DCA zones. Across Bitcoin’s entire history, this rolling 100-day MVRV framework has identified some of the most accurate short-term accumulation and distribution points, even within broader cycle trends.

Conclusion

Even as Bitcoin’s market matures and institutional involvement deepens, these core on-chain valuation frameworks remain among the most powerful tools for cycle analysis. The realized price models, particularly those tied to specific cohorts, provide insight into market conviction, showing when participants are in profit and when behavioral shifts are likely to trigger the next move. More importantly, adapting traditional metrics to rolling frameworks ensures our models evolve alongside Bitcoin itself, capturing new investor behavior, liquidity cycles, and the growing institutional influence that defines this market’s future.

If Bitcoin can continue holding above the STH realized price, the data suggests there is ample room to the upside, with plausible cycle targets in the $160,000–$200,000 region.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: This On-Chain Data Tells Us Where Price Goes Next

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post This Bitcoin Price Cycle Data Reveals Next Major Bull Run first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Volatility Hits Record Lows

Bitcoin price is once again testing the patience of traders, moving within one of the tightest percentile price ranges in its history. For more than four months, BTC has traded between roughly $106,000 and $123,000. This period of quiet has pushed volatility to its lowest level ever recorded on six-month metrics. Each time in the past that volatility has fallen to similar depths, it has been followed by a major trending move.

Bitcoin Price Volatility Compression

The current lull stands out even compared to previous phases of consolidation in this cycle. Despite occasional liquidations and sharp wicks, the broader price structure has barely shifted since June. One of the most telling metrics is the weekly Bollinger Band Width — the indicator has now reached its lowest weekly reading ever. In every past instance that Bitcoin’s bands have squeezed to this degree, bitcoin price volatility expansion followed shortly after.

When Bitcoin Price Volatility Returns

Periods of ultra-low volatility have never lasted long. In this cycle alone, there have already been five examples where similar consolidations ended with significant moves exceeding 65% gains within 100 days. Averaging those historical fractals to today’s setup would imply a potential bitcoin price target between $170,000 and $180,000 by 2026 if the next expansion phase mirrors prior behavior.

However, bitcoin price volatility compression does not guarantee immediate upside. Previous examples have shown that these low-volatility periods can extend for several months before a breakout occurs. Bitcoin could continue to trade sideways through late Q1 2026, oscillating within the current range before direction is decided.

Macro Catalysts for Bitcoin Price Volatility

Several macro factors could serve as a catalyst for renewed bitcoin price volatility. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce another rate cut, which markets currently price at near-certainty. Gold’s recent reversal after setting new highs also hints at potential capital rotation. If even a small fraction of that capital migrates toward Bitcoin amid falling rates and renewed risk appetite, the effect could amplify any breakout once volatility expands.

Conclusion: The Next Big Bitcoin Price Move

Volatility naturally declines as Bitcoin matures from a multi-billion to a multi-trillion-dollar asset, but the cyclical nature of expansion and contraction remains. The current compression phase has lasted unusually long, and historically such conditions have preceded powerful multi-month trends.

The final months of 2025 and early 2026 may test this pattern once again. With bitcoin price volatility metrics at record lows, macro conditions turning supportive, and market sentiment subdued, Bitcoin appears poised on the edge of its next major move.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Is About To Surprise Everyone.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Volatility Hits Record Lows first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle

Has the bitcoin price finally broken away from its four-year cycle pattern, or is this bull market already entering exhaustion? By studying historical growth rates, liquidity data, and macroeconomic correlations, we can better understand whether the current cycle has truly diverged, and what that means for investors in the months ahead.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Duration

Analyzing BTC Growth Since Cycle Lows, we can see that Bitcoin has now officially surpassed the elapsed time from cycle low to cycle high seen in previous bull markets. The 2018–2022 cycle peaked 1,059 days after its prior bear market low, and the current cycle has now moved beyond that duration. If we average the elapsed time across the last two full market cycles, Bitcoin has already exceeded the historical mean and is on the verge of surpassing even the 2017 cycle length in the coming days.

Diminishing Impact on Bitcoin Price

Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year cycle was rooted in its halving events, where the block reward, and thus the inflation rate, was cut in half. Each halving triggered a sharp supply shock, driving major bull markets. However, this cycle has behaved differently. Following the most recent halving, Bitcoin experienced five months of sideways consolidation rather than the explosive post-halving rallies seen previously. While price has since made notable gains, momentum has been weaker, leading many to ask whether the halving has lost its influence.

With the current Circulating Supply already exceeding 95% of the 21 million ultimate total supply of Bitcoin, the marginal supply reduction may no longer be as significant. Today, miners distribute roughly 450 newly created BTC per day, an amount easily absorbed by a handful of institutional buyers or ETFs. That means the halving alone may no longer be the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s market cycles. 

Global Liquidity Cycles Driving the Bitcoin Price

When we view Global M2 Money Supply versus BTC on a year-on-year basis, a clear pattern emerges. Each major Bitcoin bottom has aligned almost perfectly with the trough of Global M2 liquidity growth. 

If we map the Bitcoin halvings and the M2 troughs side by side, we see that halvings typically lag the liquidity cycle, suggesting that liquidity expansion, not halving events, may be the true catalyst for Bitcoin’s rallies. This isn’t unique to Bitcoin. Gold has shown the same behavior for decades, with its price performance closely mirroring the rate of Global M2 expansion or contraction.

Inverse Correlations Shaping Bitcoin Price Trends

A key part of this liquidity story lies in the U.S. Dollar Strength Index (DXY). Historically, BTC versus DXY on a year-on-year basis has been almost perfectly inversely correlated. When the dollar strengthens year-on-year, Bitcoin tends to enter bear market conditions. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin begins a new bull market. This inverse relationship also holds true for Gold and equity markets, underscoring the broader debasement cycle thesis that as fiat currencies lose purchasing power, hard assets rapidly appreciate.

Currently, the DXY has been in a short-term uptrend, coinciding with Bitcoin’s recent consolidation. However, the index is now approaching a key historical resistance zone, one that has previously marked major turning points and preceded prolonged DXY declines. If this pattern holds, the next major drop in dollar strength could trigger a renewed upcycle for Bitcoin.

Quantitative Tightening and the Bitcoin Price

Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently hinted that the era of balance sheet contraction (quantitative tightening) may be nearing an end. Looking at the Fed Balance Sheet versus BTC, the start of balance sheet expansion and renewed quantitative easing has historically coincided with major upward moves in Bitcoin and equity markets alike.

During the two years following previous Fed balance sheet expansions, the S&P 500 averaged a 47% return, more than five times the average two-year performance during neutral periods. If we are indeed entering a new easing phase, it could not only prolong Bitcoin’s current cycle but also set the stage for a liquidity-driven melt-up across risk assets.

Conclusion: The Evolving Bitcoin Price Cycle

Bitcoin has now outlasted the timeframes of its previous two cycles, leading many to question whether the four-year rhythm still applies. But when we step back, a different narrative emerges, one driven not by programmed scarcity, but by Global liquidity, fiat debasement, and macro capital flow. The “four-year cycle” may not be broken, but it may have simply evolved.

If the U.S. Dollar weakens, the Fed pauses tightening, and Global M2 growth accelerates, then Bitcoin likely still has room to run.  For now, as always, the best approach remains the same: react, don’t predict. Stay data-driven, stay patient, and keep your eyes on liquidity.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Where Are We In This Bitcoin Cycle

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why the Bitcoin Price May Be Decoupling From Its Four-Year Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal

Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets have become an emerging tool for gauging sentiment and price expectations in real time. Traders on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi wager on Bitcoin’s future price outcomes, producing aggregated odds that reflect where market participants believe BTC is heading. As trading volumes expand and odds shift with volatility, these prediction markets are gaining credibility as a forward-looking sentiment gauge for the Bitcoin economy.

Extracting Bitcoin Price Alpha

In early October, traders on Polymarket were betting that BTC would close 2025 around $144,000, but as volatility picked up and BTC dipped, that forecast has since slipped closer to $129,000. These odds update in real time, meaning they reflect the collective positioning and sentiment of thousands of participants and millions of dollars.

By tracking the ratio between BTC’s spot price and the predicted year-end price, clear sentiment trends begin to emerge. When this ratio spikes, meaning the spot price trades well below the market’s forecast, it often reflects a period of excessive fear or undervaluation. Conversely, when BTC trades close to the predicted price, the market tends to be overheated and nearer to local peaks.

Normalizing this data to account for how prediction volatility narrows as the year progresses gives an even clearer signal. The top percentile of days, where the ratio shows the widest gap between prediction and spot, has historically aligned with market lows, and vice-versa for the lowest percentile of days aligning with local highs.

Comparing Bitcoin Price Prediction Accuracy

Despite the impressive 91% accuracy figure often cited by Polymarket, deeper analysis shows that this number is inflated by markets with extreme odds — scenarios like “Bitcoin to hit $250,000 by year-end,” which overwhelmingly resolve to “no.” Removing these outliers gives a more realistic accuracy rate closer to 71% for BTC-related prediction markets, still notable but far from predictive certainty.

Interestingly, when comparing the standardized ratio of prediction-market expectations to BTC’s actual price, the data moves inversely to the Fear and Greed Index. When fear dominates, the ratio signals that traders are undervaluing Bitcoin, while periods of extreme greed coincide with markets pricing BTC near or above forecast levels. This overlap suggests that prediction markets, much like sentiment gauges, can help identify when emotions in the market have swung too far in one direction.

Bitcoin Price Trading Implications

Used alone, prediction markets don’t provide a consistent trading edge — their crowd-based probabilities are efficient but not omniscient. However, when combined with sentiment indicators like the Fear and Greed Index or on-chain data, they can highlight asymmetry in market perception.

Historically, strategies that accumulate BTC during extreme fear and reduce exposure during euphoria have outperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach. When prediction markets align with those same fear periods, the data strengthens the case for opportunistic accumulation.

Conclusion: Reading Bitcoin Price Signals

Prediction markets are not crystal balls, but they reflect the aggregated conviction of thousands of informed participants putting real money on the line. While not perfectly accurate, their probabilities track human sentiment remarkably well. When these odds diverge sharply from spot price — especially in periods of widespread fear — they may offer a data-driven contrarian signal worth paying attention to.

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For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

---

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets Are Flashing a Signal first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Sabudana Vada Recipe (For Fasting)

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READ: Sabudana Vada Recipe (For Fasting)

Poha Recipe (Kanda Poha)

Poha is a light and popular Maharashtrian breakfast made with flattened rice, onions, herbs, spices, and sometimes peanuts or potatoes. It has many regional versions like Kanda Poha, Dadpe Pohe, and Indori Poha. This Kanda Poha recipe is made with onions, potatoes, peanuts, and basic spices. It is easy to cook, filling, and naturally vegan...

READ: Poha Recipe (Kanda Poha)

Paneer Butter Masala Recipe

Paneer Butter Masala is one of the most loved paneer curries, both in restaurants and Indian homes. I’ve been making this recipe for years, refining it until it became a family favorite. This restaurant-style curry is creamy, lightly spiced, and always a hit. With my step-by-step photos and video, you’ll see how easy it is...

READ: Paneer Butter Masala Recipe

Schezwan Fried Rice Recipe

Schezwan Fried Rice is a vibrant Indo-Chinese dish made by stir-frying cooked rice with a spicy, tangy Schezwan sauce, mixed vegetables and mushrooms, garlic, spring onions, celery, vinegar, salt and pepper, creating a flavorful, zesty rice dish that’s perfect as a main or side, often served with manchurian or other Chinese-inspired dishes. Schezwan Fried Rice...

READ: Schezwan Fried Rice Recipe

Besan Ladoo Recipe (Easy Homemade Besan ke Laddu)

Besan Ladoo (also referred to as Besan ke Laddu) is a traditional as well as a popular North Indian sweet made by slow-roasting gram flour (besan) in ghee until golden and aromatic, then mixing it with powdered sugar, cardamom, and chopped nuts before shaping it into round, melt-in-the-mouth balls. Rich, nutty and fragrant, these laddus...

READ: Besan Ladoo Recipe (Easy Homemade Besan ke Laddu)

Ahh, today is that glorious day when I realize that my plan to write one or even two articles a month on my wonderful blog is failing. And then I remind myself that my worth checking series is not only there to share knowledge and interesting material but also to save my ass in just such situations. To

I hope you haven’t forgotten about the Worth Checking series. Here you can check out the latest one. I thought I’d post monthly in this format, but it would turn out that I’d have more entries like this than my own :) If there were maybe 10 articles a month, it would make as much sense as possible.

Welcome to the first article of never ending (or till I die) series called Worth checking episode 1.

Weird introduction

Being a security researcher or pentester, red teamer, hacker, or other specialist in a