EXPERT INTERVIEW — President Trump is welcoming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House today with an announcement that he plans to approve the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the Kingdom, signaling a policy shift by the U.S. Administration.

The visit to Washington marks one of the most consequential moments in decades for the U.S.–Saudi relationship. Both governments see the meeting as a chance to cement the expansion of the U.S.-Saudi partnership from one focused on energy and security to include advanced technology, AI, critical minerals and defense cooperation.

The trip follows President Donald Trump’s high-profile visit to Saudi Arabia in May, when both countries announced a multibillion-dollar deal that could potentially give Riyadh access to advanced U.S. AI technology. While sources tell The Cipher Brief that many of the details of those deals remain in various stages of negotiation, the Crown Prince’s Washington visit aims to build off of that momentum.

More widely, the visit comes at the end of a year of rapid geopolitical and technological change for the Middle East. Through these shifts, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf leaders like the United Arab Emirates are positioning themselves as centers for AI infrastructure, diversified cheap energy, and global supply chains.

To help unpack the stakes and expectations behind the Crown Prince’s Washington visit, The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, who spent more than 34 years in the Intelligence Community and has been following regional developments for 43 years - including his time as a business consultant. Roule is in frequent contact with Gulf leaders on energy, security, finance and technology issues and travels frequently to the region. Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly began by asking Roule to summarize the expectations going into this visit. Our conversation has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

THE INTERVIEW

Roule: The visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington will likely represent a transformational moment in Saudi-American relations that will stand out among the most important events in the 80-year relationship between the two countries. Each side will likely seek to use this visit to change the traditional relationship from one of oil and security to one that is more of a blend of advanced technology, mining, and energy, which includes nuclear, and defense.

Each side now sees the other as an indispensable partner and views this visit as a way of establishing an architecture that will ensure that periodic political difficulties don't destabilize a critical relationship that needs to last decades. The Saudis seek this more predictable relationship and assets that will allow them to accelerate their evolution toward becoming a global power center.

Washington seeks to revitalize and cement ties with a rising middle power that will certainly have considerably more influence in the Middle East and the Global South and will become an important link in the global energy and supply chain. Regional issues will be discussed during the visit, but I don't think it's likely we're going to see significant shifts outside of the ongoing trends.

Kelly: This visit, of course, does follow the visit by President Trump to Saudi Arabia in May of this year where some signficant deals were announced with regard to technology sharing and investment opportunities.

Roule: That is correct. In essence, what you're looking at is the other side of the coin from those visits. President Trump and a team of unprecedented stature of American cabinet members and highly consequential American business leaders traveled to the Kingdom and concluded a vast array of business deals over the months since that time. American diplomats and business leaders have met to finalize and further expand upon those deals. And now we're looking at a meeting that will, in essence, conclude those agreements or take them to the next stage of developing memorandums of understanding. These are very complicated agreements that in and of themselves will take months, if not years, to play out. But they are indeed transformational for the economies of each of the two partners.

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Saudi Arabia and its neighbor, the United Arab Emirates are drawing on an unprecedented and historic combination of very focused policy decisions, massive domestic and global investment flows that they are developing with themselves and partners, and domestic social engineering that's been something that is unique in the world based upon AI and multiculturalism to redefine themselves from hitherto reliable energy suppliers into world-class members of the global supply chain - architects of the next generation of AI manufacturing and new nodes of political influence in a non-polar Middle East.

Each of these two countries is positioning themselves as models of rule of law, stable governance, and an oasis of multicultural life, open for business, open for boldness. And these two countries have a strategy that relies upon a tight weave of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), chemicals, energy infrastructure, data centers, and finance. But each country also requires a deep, unprecedented and sustained access to the most advanced US AI technology.

So for this to happen, we're watching the Saudi Crown Prince come to Washington to build this new relationship with the United States. They know that this relationship brings tremendous benefits to the United States as well. It not only helps us build out our infrastructure, our employment at a time when we're having our own challenges, but in a way, it also sends a powerful message. They believe in us. They believe in the American future. They know that we will win, and often in ways that we sometimes don't express in ourselves.

Lastly, they're doing all of this in a way that means that they're not having to cut their commercial ties with China or offend Russia. In return for what they will give, they will receive technology that makes them global AI powers. And with the cheap energy that they are able to attach to that AI, they will be incredibly successful.

Kelly: Clearly, we're going through a dramatic shift in the Middle East right now. How important is this relationship to the United States?

Roule: It's critical. The Middle East remains vital to America's interest. The Middle East, as they say, it's in the middle. You look at any map and the Middle East is in the center of global trade, global transportation, multiple shipping routes move through the region, 80% of the data between Europe and Asia transit the region. You have global energy centered in the region. You have several of the world's major religions in the region. You have crossroads of multiple U.S. national interests.

At the same time, you're now looking at the development of an artificial intelligence infrastructure that is starting to blossom. And our ability to partner with that and to ensure that that technology does not threaten America's interests, and indeed sustains America's interest as that region partners with the Global South. It just protects our interest and expands our influence at a time when China would very much like to replace us.

Kelly: You talked about some of the ambitions of the Kingdom and the UAE, both in investment and AI. We've talked a lot in the past about their efforts and trying to lead when it comes to green energy. What do you think is driving their strategy?

Roule: Their strategy is driven by changes in the world that are just inevitable. If we were to go back one year and I were to tell you that knowledge is power, you would agree completely with me. But today, the adage is now, power is knowledge. The artificial intelligence system is inherently an energy system in and of itself. And artificial intelligence requires access to inexpensive, reliable 24-hour energy. And in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and the other Gulf Cooperation Council states have access to tremendously inexpensive energy, and the prospect of additional inexpensive energy through their expansion of solar power and nuclear energy, which they're seeking. Those with access to such tremendous cheap energy and artificial intelligence have access to the benefits of artificial intelligence, which will bring them enormous economic advantage in the future.

Now, look at the other end of that stick. In Sub-Saharan Africa, at least 600 million Africans lack access to a reliable source of electricity. Imagine the social and economic disadvantage of those various societies. But let's go forward, just thinking about where the world is moving. By 2040, data center energy needs will rise fourfold. 1.5 billion people are estimated to move to cities. That means 2 billion new air conditioners will come online. And when you're in Saudi Arabia, a large portion of their oil needs, their oil production, is actually used for air conditioners in the summer. And you see their oil production move up in the summer for air conditioners. Global fleets of aircraft are expected to double from 25,000 to 50,000 aircraft by 2040. Jet fuel demand will be up by 30%. Six million kilometers of electrical transmission lines are needed by 2040. Imagine what that means in terms of copper.

So if you're looking at something like this, we're now looking at $4 trillion of investment needed annually for this energy architecture. We can't do this without partners with capital - like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates - and the many partners they bring together into their ecosystem.

So now let's look at energy. In recent years, you've had this great contest between the people who correctly talk about the need for us to battle climate change, and those who have talked about the need for more energy. Both issues must be dealt with. Well, now we realize oil demand is not going to drop. In fact, oil demand is expected to remain above 100 million barrels a day through 2040. This demand is going to be needed for materials and petrochemicals. LNG demand is expected to grow by 50%. Renewables will double. In essence, the world needs more energy, not replacement for these other energy sources.

Saudi Arabia and the Emirates and Qatar and Kuwait see themselves as becoming islands of cheap energy working with the United States. They see themselves at this moment in history - where, if they can capture a certain amount of extraordinary technology and a strategic relationship with the United States, and this ecosystem of multicultural partnership with the world - they can become a very different society. It's a fascinating dynamic. It's a very exciting time in history.

Kelly: Do you think falling oil prices are going to impact this strategy?

Roule: Well, we're watching that play out. So in essence, what we've seen is very prudent decision making. They have slowed some of the execution of major projects, but they have not stopped the projects themselves. They have extended timelines. They have delayed the rollout of certain large programs. If it has to do with their visions of Vision 2030 or Vision 2040, they have different visions in the Gulf, the projects remain on track. And it's because those projects are critical to where they need to go. If you look, for example, at the city of Neom that is often talked about, well, the port of Oxagon, which is critical to the infrastructure of trade in the Northwest Arabian Peninsula, that’s still functioning, it’s still out there. They're just going to slow the build out of that city because it's reasonable to say to slow the build out to the city. It's just not reasonable to think that you can slow the build out of trade and infrastructure in the Arabian Peninsula. That's going to happen on a different timeline.

Now, we've also seen reports that the Saudis have withdrawn some of their capital from not less productive, but maybe investments in the United States that aren't as relevant to the core vision of equities as in the past. That I think you may see a little more of, but I don't see a massive withdrawal of those investments unless we saw oil prices drop into say the low $50s or $40s. So what we're watching is prudent focus. We're watching attention to timelines. We're watching attention to anti-corruption. I'm impressed. I've not seen anybody waste money or do anything that is injudicious. And I've not seen anybody make allegations that such things have been noted by others.

Kelly: What will make this a successful visit to Washington, both on behalf of the Saudis and on behalf of the U.S.?

Roule: Architecture. And what you're looking for is something that lasts beyond one month, one deal. You're looking for something that binds us together over time. I think what you're going to hear will be announcements of MOUs. You will hear announcements of deals. And as important as it is to focus on the numbers associated with the deals, and there will certainly be focus on that and questions regarding that, it's really more important to focus on the industries, the sectors associated with those deals, and then the depth that each of those MOUs brings to the various societies.

For example, let's say that we see an aviation deal that might bring employment to the United States but will set up a manufacturing node in Saudi Arabia. If something like that were to happen, that would make Saudi Arabia part of a global supply chain. So 20 years from now, we would have a more reliable source of parts or an alternative source of parts. If mining is developed within the kingdom, well, it takes years to develop a mine, but we will have an alternative source of minerals, and Saudi Arabia is a rich source of multiple minerals that are important to the United States. Or if the Saudis invest in minerals in the U.S., it may take years for those to play out. So the architecture associated with those deals will mean employment but it's the depth and the timelines with those deals that will determine the depth of that relationship.

In terms of defense deals, I don't want to downplay that, but America has always stood with Saudi Arabia. People have often asked, 'If there's a single attack did we respond in as well or to the extent that we should have?' That's open to question. But there is no doubt in my mind, nor in the minds of regional leaders, that if there were a serious attack on Saudi Arabia by Iran or another country, we are absolutely going to be there. And do we need a defense deal to say that? I'll leave that to others, but not in my mind. But in any case, we will see some sort of defense architecture develop.

Should the Saudis have nuclear energy? Why not? Every other country does. They're looking for additional technology and there's no reason we can't provide that to them to assist them. But again, it's that architecture and the relationship over years that you seek, vice one delivery, one deal, and the announcements that go with it.

Kelly: Where do you see the region going in 2026? What will be the big headlines and the big drivers next year in the Middle East?

Roule: There's a lot of good news in the Middle East. The U.S. remains the dominant great power. Americans are not and likely will not be the target of a major military confrontation in the region. But the region itself continues to lack a strong cohesive narrative that pulls it together.

The biggest point in the region is that it remains a non-polar region. There's no reason to believe that this administration will cease its vigorous focus on the region. And we must applaud this administration for, in its first 11 months, having multiple emissaries and making visits and sending many cabinet ministers to the region. If you look at the recent conferences that have taken place in Manama, Qatar, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, we've had cabinet level representation at all of those events to include during a government shutdown, which is no small thing, with representatives from multiple government departments. America is back and Russia and China are not.

Gaza is going to sputter along, and the U.S. commitment remains and CENTCOM is performing marvelously as a key force bringing things together. I think we're going to see that continuing. Neither side, Israel or the Palestinians, have a reason to return to war, but violence will continue. The largest or most significant political shifts in the region likely would come from a change in the Israeli government.

Iran is fragile. Iran nuclear talks are unlikely to begin until the administration sees evidence that the talks will not be a waste of time. Right now, the Iranians seek talks, but that doesn't mean they want to do anything other than have talks, because if they have talks, the rial will be strengthened and the Iranians don't have to bring anything up. The Quds Force will remain active. They will continue to deliver weapons to the Yemenis. But it's unlikely they're interested in looking for a conflict. We can't rule out a sudden collapse of Iran in case of an environmental disaster such as an earthquake, but the regime appears fragile at present.

Syria continues to make progress and I think we're going to see the progress continue in its current trend. Arab infrastructure investment continues to progress. I would watch for telecommunications and port investment work. And the reason that's important is that you're watching the Biden administration IMEC plan in essence or IMEC cooperation be realized as Gulf states put their lines up through Europe and through Syria.

Lebanon will likely remain a greater challenge. I think we're watching a lot of Saudi quiet diplomacy with Yemen and that will continue. GCC infrastructure will continue to develop. I would be surprised if we didn't see more Saudi work with Bahrain and Saudi work between the GCC and the West.

Oil will remain stable likely and soft in coming months. I think you're going to see a lot more natural gas come online. OPEC will continue to do everything it can to prevent oil from falling into the 50s while maintaining a relatively soft position so they can recapture market share from India and other places lost to Russia.

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EXCLUSIVE EXPERT INTERVIEW -- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is expected to visit Washington this November according to sources cited by Bloomberg, as the two countries work to finalize details around the hundreds of millions of dollars in business deals that were signed during the U.S. president’s visit to Riyadh in May.

Though the White House hasn’t publicly confirmed the meeting, it would mark the Crown Prince’s first visit to the U.S. since the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and is expected to focus primarily on commitments to invest in artificial intelligence, defense and energy as well as regional stability concerns.

Beyond the business though, analysts say the meetings need to further deepen trust between Saudi Arabia and Washington at a time when alliances are having a significant impact in every region of the world.

“The time may well be coming when the U.S. and China will face off and we will need to ask our Gulf partners to stand with us in that tough moment,” former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI Norm Roule. “To do this, we need closer and more regular visits by the Saudi Crown Prince, as well as the Emirati President of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed bin Zayed.”

In a Cipher Brief exclusive expert interview, we asked Roule, who now works as an energy analyst and routinely travels to the Middle East for high-level talks with officials, about framing realistic expectations for a possible November visit.

Norman T. Roule

Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He also served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I) at ODNI, where he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran.

The Cipher Brief: What do you expect will be the key issues on the table during this meeting in November at the White House, if it does indeed happen?

Roule: The purpose of the trip is to complete the multiple commercial, economic, defense, and energy agreements developed during the unprecedented meetings by President Trump, U.S. cabinet ministers, and several dozen senior U.S. business leaders in the Kingdom in May 2025. These deals are viewed as socially and economically transformational agreements by the Kingdom. For the U.S., these deals will bring decades of valuable commercial engagement, worth somewhere between USD 600 billion and USD 1.5 trillion in trade to the U.S. The Crown Prince will travel to the U.S. as Prime Minister and a guest of the White House which requires a different protocol than in 2018. The schedule will likely be more formal. I would expect his visit, therefore, to be focused on the White House, Congress, and the Department of Commerce.

The Cipher Brief: We saw a number of agreements signed during President Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May, as you mentioned. How would you expect those agreements to be furthered during this trip? In other words, what would success look like in November?

Roule: For the U.S., it will be easy to look to the financial size of each deal, the number of jobs each brings, and where, and so on. Indeed, that’s important and I expect policymakers will cite these achievements. But we should also think about this architecturally. What will these investments mean to the associated industries of each country in the long term? The real benefits lay in the answer to that question because here we see how the success will transform the societies of each country.

Beyond business, the trip needs to deepen the relationship to allow us to turn to each other on other issues in the future. Events – good or bad – are all sitting on the horizon. They are best managed with partners we trust who are seen as stabilizing actors. The best way to build trust is to increase the frequency of contact between our various leaders.

The existing process of semiannual strategic dialogues is useful, but more of this is needed to build the trust and confidence needed to respond to the challenges our countries now confront. The time may well be coming when the U.S. and China will face off and we will need to ask our Gulf partners to stand with us in that tough moment. To do this, we need closer and more regular visits by the Saudi Crown Prince, as well as the Emirati President of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed bin Zayed.

Over the last decade, Gulf leaders have become routine players on the world stage. For example, over the last three years, around fifty world leaders have visited Riyadh, including those of the U.S., China, Russia, and India. Riyadh has hosted summits of leaders from Africa, Central Asia, the Caribbean, the GCC, the Arab League, and Islamic countries. The Crown Prince himself has visited around ten countries in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. And it was no coincidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called the Saudi Crown Prince in the build-up to the meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin in Alaska.

The bottom line is that the issues we each confront, the investments we are making in each other, and the scale of our respective security commitments requires the sort of communication and relationship that can best be achieved by frequent personal interaction between Saudi leaders and our own public and private sector officials here in the U.S.

The Cipher Brief: Let’s go back to the May 2025 deals for a moment. How have follow-up discussions proceeded since those deals were announced? And beyond high-tech and energy, what other sectors of trade do you consider essential to the U.S. and Saudi Arabia?

Roule: We should look at this in two parts. First, Gulf and U.S. private sector partners have continued to meet. At least a half dozen major agreements have been concluded since May. In terms of the official management of the commercial and technical agreements, my understanding is that the Trump administration remains fully committed to doing whatever it can to fulfill the promises made by the President. In fairness, these deals are complicated, and the Department of Commerce has had quite a bit to do over the summer with tariff deals, but I expect the major issues will be sorted by November.

In terms of other sectors, it may not be the first thing that comes to mind, but we and the Saudis have significant shared interests in mining and critical minerals. Cooperation between Washington and Riyadh in the mining sector has grown significantly in recent years. It is a subject that touches national security, economic, energy, industrial development, China, Africa, private/public sector partnerships, state capital deployment, and other strategic issues that cut across government departments.

Mining license issuance has more than doubled in the Kingdom in the first half of this year alone as the Kingdom seeks local and foreign sources of lithium, copper, nickel, and other minerals needed to build renewable energy systems. This issue hasn’t been lost on the Trump administration, which signed an MOU on mining and mineral cooperation during the President’s visit for joint exploration, processing, and the integration of critical mineral supply chains essential for our manufacturing, defense technologies, and renewable energy sectors. The hope is that by aligning Saudi Arabia’s largely untapped mineral wealth with U.S. technology and training, the Kingdom will achieve its Vision 2030 goals while diversifying its supply chain by reducing China’s hold on critical minerals.

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I don’t expect many surprises from the meeting in November, but I do think we should expect the Trump administration to be forward leaning in terms of engagement. We may see an expansion in the sale of significant military technology. If the U.S. believes the region needs to play a greater role in this area, sooner or later, we will need to sell them a military deterrent against Iran. If we can sell advanced military technology to Israel to deter Iran, many will reasonably argue that there is no reason why we shouldn’t be selling the same technology to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

The Cipher Brief: On the foreign policy front, with the ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza, how might the current Saudi role in Palestinian, Syrian, and Lebanese issues play out during the November trip?

Roule: The world can change many times between now and November, but at present, the visit is not expected to have any connection to Israel or the Palestinian issue. In terms of Saudi foreign policy in that area, it has been robust. The Saudis have maintained their posture as the leading diplomatic actor in the region, a difficult challenge given the intensity of the Gaza humanitarian issue, the complexity of Syrian and Lebanese politics, and the many different viewpoints within the Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council. But I think we can point to several examples of successful Saudi foreign policy that are consistent with long-standing U.S. foreign policy goals.”

First, on Palestine, the Saudis played a leading role in a recent Arab League statement calling on Hamas to disarm and transfer control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority in a two-state solution with Israel that also calls for a freeze on Israeli settlement expansion. Riyadh recently signed several agreements with the Palestinian Authority in which it will assist with human resources development, education curriculum development, and the establishment of an electronic system by which Palestinians can access their payments from and administrative engagement with the Palestinian Authority. Seemingly mundane, this will allow reforms in areas that many have claimed have promoted the worst form of extremism and even terrorism within the Palestinian territories. The Kingdom has also committed $300 million to infrastructure assistance for Gaza and the West Bank.

On Syria and Lebanon, Riyadh has engaged both politically and economically with Beirut and Damascus for months and in close cooperation with Washington. It is no secret that the Saudis have sought to reduce Iran’s influence in these countries and see the revival of the Lebanese and Syrian economies and establishment of stable governments in these countries as the keys to doing so. Riyadh encouraged the Trump administration to lift sanctions on Syria and sent its investment minister, along with a number of business professionals to Damascus, accompanied by an offer of commitment of more than $6 billion in investment to spur Syrian employment. Riyadh and Doha also paid off Syria’s outstanding World Bank loans, enabling more funding to Damascus from that institution. This consistent attention to stability in the Levant has huge potential for the entire region and deserves our strongest support.

The Cipher Brief: We always close with a question on the Saudi economy and oil. Give us a quick run through on the status of the economy, its strengths, weaknesses, and near-term outlook.

Roule: Despite the downturn in oil prices and intense regional competition for foreign investment, the Kingdom’s economy is doing relatively well. The loss of revenue will delay some projects, but the Kingdom’s overall modernization strategy and the main projects seen as crucial to achieving that strategy remain unchanged. This unwavering focus and the level of planning behind each project – and some recent cost cutting – has been the secret of their overall success.

In terms of economic details, let me run through some numbers. Inflation is approximately 2.3 percent, unemployment about 2.8 percent, and women make up more than 36 percent of the workforce. Perhaps the best news in the recent IMF report was that youth and female unemployment have been cut in half over the past four years.

Non-oil is now more than half of the economy, in line with Saudi targets. Entertainment has been a particularly strong support. Liberalizing mortgages helped the local construction industry. And this month will see another E-sports world cup in the Kingdom. It remains ironic that the Kingdom has found success in a tourist event that is held during the hottest month of the year by recognizing that this event can only be held indoors. On sports, Riyadh continues to be keen on increasing its role in golf and tennis. I think we will hear more about this in the future as the associated leagues seem to be coming to terms with the Kingdom’s involvement. But Saudi economists won’t be able to take much for granted. Fortunately, Riyadh boasts some impressive economists and technical planners, so I don’t think this will be a significant problem.

Looking forward, oil will continue to account for a significant share of government revenue. This will gradually decline over time, but I suspect not as fast as Riyadh would like. Competition for foreign investment will continue to intensify in the region but such competition is good for everyone.

The challenge is that if revenue is maintained at a respectable level, spending won’t let up. Vision 2030 and Vision 2040 revenue demands probably seem insatiable to ministers. I don’t expect that to change. Deficits are likely to remain a new normal throughout this decade. And Riyadh will keep looking more to the private sector for local investment and liberalizing foreign ownership to encourage foreign investors. Careful borrowing is also expected to become the new normal.

In terms, of specific projects, ministers will work hard to expand local manufacturing in the automotive and semiconductor sectors to meet ambitious Vision 2030 goals. The Kingdom will also need to keep a close eye on giga projects to ensure they don’t drain capital and resources from the broader infrastructure development ecosystem.

All of this will be tough work. But my conversations with the Kingdom’s leaders tell me they are aware of these issues and believe they’re up to the task.

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