EXPERT OPINION — South Korea’s Korea Institute for Defense Analysis recently publicly stated that we underestimated North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. According to their analysis, North Korea has between 127 and 150 nuclear weapons (not 50 to 60 nuclear weapons), and by 2030 they will have 200 nuclear weapons, reaching 400 nuclear weapons by 2040.

At the eighth Central Committee of the Workers’ Congress in late 2022, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered the exponential expansion of North Korea's nuclear arsenal and the development of a more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile. Mr. Kim reportedly said: “They are now keen on isolating and stifling North Korea…and the prevailing situation calls for redoubled efforts to overwhelmingly beef up our military muscle.”

During this six-day meeting of the Central Committee, Mr. Kim not only called for an “exponential increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal”, but he also called for the mass production of battlefield tactical nuclear weapons targeting South Korea, and a new ICBM with a “quick nuclear counterstrike capability; a weapon that could strike the mainland U.S.”

North Korean leaders usually say what they plan to do. Indeed, this is the case with Mr. Kim. Not only has he apparently done this with his arsenal of nuclear weapons, but in October 2025, at the parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party, the Hwasong-20, a solid fuel, mobile three stage ICBM capable of targeting the whole of the U.S., was introduced to the international community. The Hwasong-20 possibly could also be capable of launching multiple nuclear warheads at different targets, a capability that would challenge any missile defense system. So, the arsenal of ICBMs that could strike the U.S. – Hwasong-18 and 19 – has also grown exponentially with the Hwasong-20, as Mr. Kim said in 2022.

North Korea has also been working on its submarine program, to include a nuclear-powered submarine. This is in addition to its extensive work on hypersonic and cruise missiles, all representing a challenge to any missile defense system.

North Korea is also developing a second-strike capability, with programs to ensure the survivability of some of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and the progress North Korea has made with solid-fuel mobile ICBMs and nuclear-armed submarines, providing a mobile launch platform. Moreover, North Korea’s doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons has changed to a preemptive, first use of nuclear weapons if a nuclear attack against the leadership or command and control systems is imminent or perceived to be imminent.

The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to national and global security stories. It’s never been more important to understand what’s happening in the world. Upgrade your access to exclusive content by becoming a subscriber.

Russian President Vladimir visited Pyongyang in June 2024, when he and Mr. Kim signed a mutual defense treaty, part of a “Strategic Comprehensive Partnership” between Russia and North Korea, ratified in November 2024. Article 4 of the treaty states that should either nation “put in a state of war by an armed invasion, the other will provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay”

In October 2024, NATO claimed North Korean soldiers arrived in Russian Kursk Oblast to join Russian forces in its war of aggression with Ukraine. Additionally, North Korea was providing Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles. That assistance to Russia continues.

In return, it’s likely that in addition to energy and food assistance, Russia is providing North Korea with assistance with its satellite and ballistic missile programs and, also, with its nuclear program. Indeed, Russia could help with North Korea’s nuclear-powered submarine program, especially with the design, materials and components for such a technically challenging program.

North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with Russia, and its participation in the war with Ukraine, was a major failing of the U.S. and South Korea. We should have seen movement in this direction and did more to prevent it from happening. Of course, there is irony in Russia now saying North Korea should have nuclear weapons when in the Six Party Talks with North Korea, Russia, with China, Japan, South Korea and the U.S., was in sync arguing that North Korea should not have nuclear weapons.

North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are an existential threat to the U.S. and its allies. Our past policy to “contain and deter” North Korea and to be “strategically patient” with North Korea didn’t work. They failed, as evidenced by North Korea’s robust nuclear and ballistic missile programs and their allied relationship with Russia – and China. Indeed, efforts should be made by the leadership in the U.S. and South Korea to get Mr. Kim to reengage, especially with President Donald Trump.

As South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said, North and South Korea are in a “very dangerous situation” where an accidental clash is possible at any time.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

Mr. Kim’s recent meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the new mutual defense treaty with the Russian Federation have developed into an alliance of unexpected consequences. The 15,000 North Korean troops assisting Russian forces in the Kursk region and the massive amount of artillery shells, drones and ballistic missiles provided to Russia for its war of aggression in Ukraine was a significant development that surprised many of the pundits who viewed North Korea as a distraction, confined to the Korean Peninsula.

Indeed, Mr. Kim’s presence in Beijing for the 80th anniversary of World War II Victory Day celebrations, standing next to Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin was testimony to China’s decision that North Korea cannot be ignored and a close alliance with North Korea is in China’s interest.

And certainly, last Friday’s parade and gala in Pyongyang on the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Korean Workers’ Party was an emboldened Mr. Kim announcing to the world that North Korea has arrived and can not be ignored. In the presence of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Vietnam’s Communist Party Chief To Lam and others, Kim made it clear when he said North Korea “was a faithful member of Socialist forces… and a bulwark for independence… against the West’s global hegemony.”

Doubling down, North Korea at the military parade introduced their new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile, the Hwasong-20, a solid fuel massive missile capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads and capable of targeting the whole of the U.S. Other weaponry, to include hypersonic and cruise missiles also were on display, making it clear that Mr. Kim was serious when he said North Korea would enhance its nuclear capabilities.

At a recent Workers’ Party Plenary session, Mr. Kim said he was prepared to meet with Mr. Trump, on the condition that the U.S. would accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. Mr. Kim spoke of fond memories of his previous encounters with Mr. Trump. And at the United Nations on September 29, after seven years of no-show, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Kim Son-Gyong said North Korea would never give-up its nuclear weapons; to do so would be tantamount to giving up its sovereignty.

Indeed, North Korea succeeded in getting Russia to accept its nuclear weapons status. Russia was a member of the Six Party Talks with North Korea and actively assisted the U.S., South Korea, Japan and China in demanding that North Korea denuclearize completely and verifiably. Russia is now saying North Korea should retain and enhance its nuclear weapons and is probably assisting North Korea with its nuclear weapons program.

The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to national and global security stories. It’s never been more important to understand what’s happening in the world. Upgrade your access to exclusive content by becoming a subscriber.

Hopefully, China will not relent and continue to demand that North Korea denuclearize. Some say that China is now less committed to North Korean denuclearization than in the past. It’s likely this was discussed when North Korea’s Foreign Minister, Choe Son Hui, met with her counterpart in China, Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Interestingly, both participated in the Six Party Talks with North Korea, when Mr. Wang was the chairman of the Talks in Beijing and Ms. Choe was an adviser to Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Kwan, head of the North Korean delegation to the Talks.

North Korea’s goal is to have a normal relationship with the U.S. This is something Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong il, and grandfather, Kim il Sung, pursued since 1994. A relationship with the U.S. would give North Korea international credibility and access to international financial institutions for economic development purposes. It will also untether North Korea to China. It is no secret that historically, and even after Mr. Xi assumed power in China in 2013, the bilateral relationship between North Korea and China has been tense.

And indeed, given North Korea’s experience in dealing with the former Soviet Union in 1991, at the end of the Cold War, when Moscow downgraded relations with North Korea and in 1995, when Russia officially renounced the mutual assistance treaty with North Korea. It, therefore, should be obvious to North Korea that once the war in Ukraine is over, Russia’s need for continued North Korean assistance will end and the relationship will likely be downgraded.

This is the time for Mr. Trump to meet with Mr. Kim to talk about security assurances and a path to normal bilateral relations. The issue of North Korea’s nuclear status need not be the focal point for future discussions. It should, however, continue to be our goal, but at an appropriate time.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.

Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

I’m not surprised by Mr. Kim’s comments. When the Six Party Talks with North Korea commenced in 2003, North Korea’s principal representative to the Talks often mentioned that North Korea wanted nuclear weapons as a deterrent, never to be used for offensive purposes. They asked to be treated as we treated Pakistan, a country that has good relations with the U.S. The North Korean representative said North Korea wanted a good, normal relationship with the U.S., promising to be a good partner. with the U.S.

North Korea has consistently been told that the U.S. would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. But with complete and verifiable denuclearization, North Korea would receive security assurances, sanctions relief, economic development assistance, to include the provision of Light Water Reactors for civilian purposes and eventual normalization of relations with the U.S. Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong il, seemingly accepted this U.S. offer and in September 2005, North Korea did agree to a Joint Statement committing North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

That was 2005. The situation has changed profoundly over the past twenty years. North Korea now has a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons; some estimates are between 50 and 60 nuclear warheads, reportedly with sufficient fissile material to annually produce 15 to 20 nuclear warheads that can be miniaturized and mated to ballistic missiles.

North Korea’s sixth nuclear test in 2017 was assessed to be a test of a thermonuclear weapon. And in 2024, North Korea successfully launched the Hwasong/19, a mobile, solid fuel ballistic missile capable of targeting the whole of the U.S. In addition to advances in nuclear weaponization and ballistic missiles, North Korea has made significant progress with Hypersonic and cruise missiles and advances with its nuclear submarine program.

Of note is North Korea’s new mutual defense treaty with the Russian Federation and the 12,000 combat troops North Korea sent to Russia for its war with Ukraine. In addition to the troops, North Korea has provided Russia with large quantities of artillery shells and ballistic missiles. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with considerable technical support for its satellite and nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

The Cipher Brief brings expert-level context to national and global security stories. It’s never been more important to understand what’s happening in the world. Upgrade your access to exclusive content by becoming a subscriber.

We are now dealing with a different North Korea. Mr. Kim is more self-confident, given his new relationship with Russia and his continued close allied relationship with China. Having two of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council ensures that North Korea no longer must be concerned with UN sanctions. And the pictures of Mr. Kim at the parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two in Beijing, standing next to China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, gave Mr. Kim significant international credibility, especially with the Global South.

A meeting of President Trump with Chairman Kim could develop into a series of meetings that could result in North Korea halting the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons, with no additional nuclear tests and a moratorium on ballistic missile launches. This would be a major success for Mr. Trump and the U.S. It would also lessen tension with South Korea and Japan.

The “eventual” U.S. goal should continue to be complete and verifiable denuclearization. However, this doesn’t have to be up front. It’s an eventual goal that should be pursued as relations with North Korea improve, with an action-for action process: As North Korea halts the production of fissile material and stops producing more nuclear weapons and refrains from ballistic missile launches, UN sanctions imposed subsequent to 2016 could be lifted with security assurances and economic development assistance and a discussion of liaison offices in our respective capitals. North Korea should be encouraged to rejoin the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT).

Mr. Trump entering talks with Mr. Kim could develop into a relationship with North Korea that could prove beneficial for the U.S. and its allies and partners.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.

Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

OPINION — The recent summit of President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung further solidified a special relationship. It’s a relationship that goes back to the Korean War, when in June 1950 North Korea invaded South Korea, mistakenly thinking the U.S. was not interested in defending South Korea from an attack from the North. North Korea’s leader, Kim il Sung, was wrong. The U.S. came to the defense of South Korea and after three years of bloody fighting, with tens of thousands of casualties, an armistice was signed in July 1953, halting the fighting – but the war continues.

Given this legacy, the Trump-Lee summit had several deliverables — tariffs, trade, investments — but what understandably got the most enthusiastic attention was the prospect of Mr. Trump reengaging with Kim Jong Un, the leader of North Korea. Frankly, reengaging with North Korea and getting Mr. Kim to realize that a normal relationship with the U.S. – and hopefully with South Korea – is in North Korea’s interest should be our goal. Indeed, it would provide North Korea with international legitimacy and access to international financial institutions, and economic assistance for economic development purposes. It would be the beginning of a new era for North Korea – and the Korean Peninsula.

No doubt, Mr. Kim must have been impressed with China’s September 3^rd victory day parade celebrating the 80^th anniversary of the end of World War II. Standing next to China’s President Xi Jinping as he and Russian President Vladimir Putin reviewed the military parade exhibiting China’s modernized military must have pleased Mr. Kim. The parade and the displayed comradery between Messrs Xi, Putin and Kim were on display for the world to see. The additional 26 world leaders all heard Mr. Xi’s veiled criticism of the U.S. and his pronouncement that the world faces a choice between “peace and war, or dialogue or confrontation.”

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Tianjin, China on August 31 that preceded the gala military parade in Beijing was another convenient venue for Mr. Xi, in the presence of Mr. Putin and India’s Narendra Modi and 20 world leaders, to prioritize the “Global South” – a clear veiled criticism of the U.S. and its tariff policies. Mr. Xi announced a $1.3 billion fund for the SCO development bank and a clear message: “We must continue to take a clear stand against hegemonism and power politics, and practice true multilateralism.”

The message from China from these two major events -- the SCO summit and military parade -- in one week was that China is a global power and Mr. Xi is an alternative global leader, for a new world order, with its own rules, independent from Western standards.

Need a daily dose of reality on national and global security issues? Subscriber to The Cipher Brief’s Nightcap newsletter, delivering expert insights on today’s events – right to your inbox. Sign up for free today.

Unfortunately, the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska on August 15 was a failure. Despite the outreach from Mr. Trump, Mr. Putin continued to escalate the bombing of Ukraine, with continued civilian casualties. Mr. Putin then proceeded to China for the SCO Summit and the 80^th anniversary military parade in Beijing to meet and confer with Messrs Xi, Putin, Kim and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, members of the axis of authoritarian states.

Mr. Xi’s comments in Tianjin at the SCO summit and at the military parade in Beijing were clear: either a new world order that condones Russia’s invasion of a sovereign state, Ukraine, despite 1994 security assurances to Ukraine in the Budapest memorandum, or nations that continue to abide by the rule of law and respect for the sovereign rights of all countries. .

Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather wanted a normal relationship with the U.S., as did Mr. Kim, in his meetings with President Trump in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019. The talks between our countries should resume soonest, knowing that North Korea’s future is with a normal relationship with the U.S. and South Korea. The details can and will be addressed.

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the US Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.

Are you Subscribed to The Cipher Brief’s Digital Channel on YouTube? There is no better place to get clear perspectives from deeply experienced national security experts.

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.

OPINION — It’s time to resume talks with North Korea. During the past five years, when we didn’t talk to North Korea, they built more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver nuclear bombs as far as the U.S. During this time, North Korea also established a close allied relationship with Russia, with a mutual defense treaty that resulted in North Korea sending over 12,000 combat troops to Russia’s Kursk region to join Russian forces in its war of aggression in Ukraine. North Korea is also providing Russia with significant quantities of artillery shells, ballistic missiles and drones. In short, North Korea is now Russia’s principal ally and supplier of weaponry for its war with Ukraine.

Logically, this should not have happened. No doubt, North Korea remembers the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of their 1961 Peace and Friendship Treaty with the Soviet Union. This Treaty was replaced with a watered-down friendship treaty that made no mention of “mutual defense”. Russia ceased viewing North Korea as an ally. Russia’s focus at that time was on improving economic relations with South Korea.

North Korea’s pivot to Russia in 2024 was a smart tactical move. It put North Korea on center stage with the introduction of its troops and weaponry to aid Russia with its war with Ukraine, while messaging the U.S. and China that North Korea is an independent actor, not solely dependent on China and not fixated on a normal relationship with the U.S. North Korea’s message was and is: We can go it alone. And now we have Russia, a nuclear superpower that not only accepts our status as a nuclear weapons state, but provides us with the nuclear, missile and satellite technical support necessary to exponentially increase our nuclear and missile capabilities.

But is this what North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, really wants? Is this what his grandfather, Kim Il-Sung, and father, Kim Jong-Il, really wanted for North Korea? Certainly since 1994, North Korea’s focus was having a normal relationship with the U.S. For thirteen years, ending in October 2016, with my last face-to-face meeting with North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister, I was repeatedly told that North Korea aspired to normal relations with the U.S., asking to be accepted as a nuclear weapons state, promising never to use these weapons offensively; they were a deterrent, to prevent war. And North Korea would be a good friend of the U.S., no longer tethered to China. They cited Pakistan as a model to emulate – “you did it with Pakistan, you can do it with us.”

In the next few weeks, there will be a summit between President Donald Trump and South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung. No doubt trade issues will be discussed, but I think a fair amount of time will be spent on national security issues and developments with North Korea.

A few days ago, Kim Yo-Jong, the powerful sister of Mr. Kim, said Kim Jong-Un’s relationship with Donald Trump wasn’t bad, implying that dialogue with the U.S. was possible. Ms. Kim conditioned such dialogue on the U.S. “accepting North Korea as a nuclear power.” Ms. Kim spoke of the changed reality since the Trump-Kim summits in Singapore (2018) and Hanoi (2019) and the symbolic DMZ meeting in 2019. And that changed reality is North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with Russia and its military assistance to Russia for its war in Ukraine, and the nuclear and missile support Russia is providing to North Korea. This new relationship with Russia has emboldened Mr. Kim, which could incite the North Korean leader to be overly aggressive and optimistic in his relationship with South Korea.

While saying dialogue with the U.S. was possible, Ms. Kim was clear in stating that South Korea was the enemy and the North was not interested in a dialogue with the South. Despite Ms. Kim’s harsh words for South Korea and the new Lee Jae-Myung government – which most South Koreans have become accustomed to hearing – the North recently stopped its harassing broadcasts to the South, apparently in response to the new Lee government halting all its broadcasts to North Korea, to include the National Intelligence Service’s daily broadcast of news, dramas and K-pop music.

Everyone needs a good nightcap. Ours happens to come in the form of a M-F newsletter that keeps you up to speed on national security. Sign up today.

South Korea knows the U.S. position on North Korea retaining nuclear weapons has not changed: Complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This was the language Mr. Kim’s father, Kim Jong-Il, accepted in the September 19, 2005, Joint Statement of the Six Party talks, and the language Mr. Kim personally accepted in the June 2018 Singapore summit – “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

This is the time for President Donald Trump to personally reach out to Kim Jong-un and arrange for senior officials from both countries to meet to arrange for a third summit between the two presidents. No one wants a repeat of the failed Hanoi Summit, so preliminary arrangements must be thorough, with agreement on a deliverable – further meetings of the principals or their senior representatives and agreement on what the U.S. and North Korea are prepared to offer. For North Korea, they can and should halt all nuclear tests, fissile material production, ballistic missile launches, cyber and other illicit activities directed at the U.S. and end their military support to Russia for its war of aggression with Ukraine. For the U.S., the easing and lifting of sanctions imposed on and after 2016, economic development assistance, security assurances, a path to ending the Korean War with a peace treaty and the eventual establishment of liaison offices in our respective capitals.

The issue of denuclearization would initially encompass a statement from both sides as to their ultimate goals. For North Korea: Acceptance as a nuclear power. For the U.S.: Complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. This will be a subject further discussed, once we move to the lifting/removal of sanctions and North Korea halts nuclear tests and fissile material production and suspends missile launches. This likely will be a protracted process, requiring considerable time for negotiations.

President Donald Trump has the personal relationship with Kim Jong Un to resume talks with a North Korea that is building more nuclear weapons and missiles to deliver them, while embracing a revanchist Russian Federation.

This column by Cipher Brief Expert Ambassador Joseph DeTrani was first published in The Washington Times

Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief because National Security is Everyone’s Business.