Germany has received its first Arrow 3 missile defense systems from Israel, making it the first country outside Israel to deploy the advanced anti-ballistic weapon. The delivery marks a major step in Germany’s missile defense posture as the country expands its role in European and NATO security. The Arrow 3, jointly developed by Israel Aerospace […] 
ImageSat International, a provider of space-based intelligence solutions, has introduced a new satellite platform named RUNNER, capable of real-time movement tracking from orbit—a capability the company says marks a new era for operational intelligence. According to ISI, RUNNER is the first satellite of its kind to provide dynamic, in-orbit surveillance enhanced by embedded artificial intelligence. […] 
The Royal Thai Air Force has selected the BARAK MX air and missile defense system from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) as part of its plan to upgrade national base protection under its Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) program. The procurement contract, valued at 3.44 billion baht (approx. $107 million), includes one full BARAK MX unit, […]
Israel is moving towards tighter supervision of stablecoins as the Bank of Israel positions them as a core part of the country’s future payments system.
The shift comes as regulators reassess how private digital dollars fit into daily financial flows.
Stablecoins are no longer seen as fringe tokens used only by crypto traders. Instead, they are being treated as major payment instruments with global scale and influence.
The Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron used the Payments in the Evolving Era conference in Tel Aviv to outline how regulatory demands will rise as stablecoin adoption continues to grow.
The Bank of Israel stressed that global stablecoin usage has expanded to levels that can no longer be ignored.
The sector has passed a market capitalisation of more than $300 billion, with monthly transaction volumes above $2 trillion.
As per CoinDesk, officials noted that these levels place stablecoins on par with the balance sheets of mid-sized international commercial banks.
This surge has been driven by their role in trading, cross-border transfers, and the need for a digital instrument that avoids the price swings of other cryptocurrencies.
The expanding footprint creates new urgency for clear, enforceable rules.
A key theme at the conference was the dominance of two stablecoin issuers.
About 99% of market activity is tied to Tether and Circle, creating a heavy concentration of risk in a sector that underpins a large share of digital asset transactions.
Israeli policymakers warned that this structure heightens systemic vulnerability.
They view that any disruption or weakness at the issuer level could ripple through global payment channels.
To mitigate this, officials highlighted the need for strict reserve practices, including fully backed 1:1 reserves and liquid assets that can handle sudden redemption waves.
Alongside the stablecoin discussion, Israel advanced its own central bank digital currency plans.
Yoav Soffer, who leads the digital shekel project, described the currency as central bank money designed for broad use.
He released a 2026 roadmap that sets out the next stages and confirmed that official recommendations are expected by the end of this year.
The update signals an acceleration similar to moves made by the European Central Bank.
Industry observers noted that the faster timeline reflects how central banks are adjusting to competition from private digital money and the rapid evolution of the payments landscape.
The roadmap triggered commentary within the crypto sector.
Attention centred on how the Bank of Israel’s accelerated schedule positions the digital shekel as a response to fast-growing private alternatives.
Market participants linked the timing to a broader global trend in which central banks are racing to modernise their own digital money strategies.
With stablecoins gaining influence in international transactions, the digital shekel project is being viewed as a strategic step to maintain control over national payments infrastructure while supporting innovation in regulated channels.
The post Israel signals tougher stablecoin rules as digital shekel plans speed up appeared first on CoinJournal.
An An-124 heavy cargo aircraft operated by Ukraine’s Antonov Airlines made an unusual stop at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport on 28 November, where it loaded equipment linked to Rafael’s SPYDER air-defense system before departing with its cargo concealed and its final destination undisclosed. According to available flight data, the aircraft arrived in Israel from the […] 
Uvision Group has announced the full acquisition of SpearUAV, an Israeli defense technology company known for its encapsulated, AI-driven loitering systems. According to the company, the move is intended to strengthen Uvision’s multi-layered approach to loitering munitions and broaden its offerings across air, ground, sea, and subsea domains. In a release from Uvision, the company […] 
Elbit Systems Ltd. has secured new contracts worth approximately $210 million from the Israel Ministry of Defense to modernize the Israeli Army’s fleet of Merkava main battle tanks. The company announced the multi-year agreement on November 18, stating that the upgrades will extend the operational life of the armored platforms and improve their battlefield effectiveness. […] 
Russia has begun actively promoting an export version of its Forpost-R unmanned aircraft — a licensed copy of the Israeli IAI Searcher Mk II — at the Dubai Airshow 2025. The aircraft, manufactured by the Ural Civil Aviation Plant (UZGA), was presented publicly in its new export configuration known as Forpost‑RE. UZGA released a promotional […] 
XTEND, an Israeli robotics firm, says it is pushing a new model for battlefield robotics in which human supervisors set intent while AI-driven “pilots” execute dangerous tasks — a design the company argues will allow small air and ground robots to operate in GNSS-denied, electronic warfare environments and scale from squad-level missions to larger maritime […] 
DEEP DIVE — Tucked deep into the cragged hills of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah, the once powerful Iranian-backed militia brought to its knees by a war with Israel, has spent the past year meticulously gouging its way back to relevancy.
For Western and Israeli security forces, the designated terrorist group’s covert but influential resurgence establishes a precarious problem: a persistent, low-level threat that could instantly trigger a wider conflict, critically testing the resilience of any ceasefires and the existing, fragile statehood.
Financial Lifelines and Sanctions
The November 5 announcement from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) targeted key elements of Hezbollah’s financial network. Two operatives — Ossama Jaber, a Hezbollah financier who personally collected tens of millions via Lebanese exchange houses from September 2024 to February 2025, and Ja’far Muhammad Qasir, a sanctioned terrorist collaborating with Syrian oil magnate Yasar Husayn Ibrahim — were blacklisted for laundering Iranian cash into Hezbollah’s war chest.
These funds, exploiting Lebanon’s cash-heavy, regulation-light economy, bankrolled everything from paramilitary salaries to the reconstruction of terror infrastructure battered by Israeli strikes. Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, John Hurley, didn’t mince words: For Lebanon to emerge “free, prosperous, and secure,” Hezbollah must be “fully disarmed and cut off from Iran’s funding and control.”
Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow and director of the counterterrorism and intelligence program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a former counterterrorism intelligence analyst for the FBI, points out that despite sanctions, Iran’s financial backing is pivotal to Hezbollah’s survival and operational reach.
“We assume Iran still provides about the same amount of money, but Hezbollah is having a harder time getting it through on a timely basis. They can’t just ship it from Iran or Iraq anymore without inspections, so they rely more on diaspora networks in South America and Africa,” he tells The Cipher Brief. “All of this is against the backdrop of severe setbacks. Hezbollah intends to continue positioning itself to not only fight militarily but also assert an oversized, dominant position within Lebanon by virtue of force.”
A Battered Front, But Not Broken
The Israel-Hezbollah war, which ignited in 2023 alongside the war in Gaza, decimated the organization’s leadership, weapons arsenal, and fighting ranks, with more than 3,000 of its fighters killed. The decapitation strikes were surgical: On September 27 last year, an Israeli airstrike flattened Hezbollah’s Beirut headquarters, killing Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s iron-fisted architect of asymmetric warfare. In the ensuing ground incursion, Israeli forces dismantled border launch sites and command bunkers, leaving Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, the elite unit tasked with infiltrating Galilee, reeling.
Yet, as analysts caution, Hezbollah is battered but not broken. A number of its battle-hardened fighters, who cut their teeth supporting the Assad regime in Syria, are now integrating into civilian life, ready to rearm at any time. Furthermore, the group’s Shia base, which comprises roughly 31 percent of the Lebanese population, remains loyal to Hezbollah, upheld by its wide-reaching welfare networks amid a country grappling with a crumbling economy.
These moves indicate that Hezbollah’s military recovery is already well underway.
“Hezbollah is giving much more attention than before the war to its Badr Unit, positioned north of the Litani River, and strengthening it with Radwan forces,” Sarít Zehavi, senior researcher at the Alma Research and Educational Center, tells The Cipher Brief. “They are also shifting from smuggling to local manufacturing of drones and missiles. Even though some brigades are not yet redeployed to the border, they continue training and rebuilding capabilities.”
The Badr Unit, a key element of Hezbollah’s northern forces, has become the group’s tactical spearhead along the Litani River and near the Israeli border. Tasked with reconnaissance, border infiltration, and rapid response, the unit has been reinforced with Radwan-trained fighters and advanced drone capabilities. Badr is central to Hezbollah’s evolving doctrine of “strategic latency,” maintaining a persistent threat without provoking full-scale war, and acts as a bridge between conventional militia operations and the group’s clandestine drone and cyber activities.
Moreover, Lebanon’s political deadlock increases the risk that Hezbollah will maintain its military dominance.
The Beirut government, assembled hastily earlier this year under President Joseph Aoun, is characterized as the least Hezbollah-affiliated in years, with a focus on reclaiming national independence from the dominant insurgents. There is, however, significant skepticism about how such a push is enforced. Hezbollah continues to rebuff key appointments, and its diminished but growing stockpile, estimated at 20,000 remaining rockets, hangs over Beirut’s ambitions.
This hybrid threat presents a national security nightmare for Washington: a non-state actor wielding state power, rendering diplomacy incredibly difficult.
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Iran’s Evolving Logistical Pipelines
Tehran’s shadow looms largest. The IRGC-Quds Force, Hezbollah’s ideological leader since 1982, has poured over $1 billion into the group this year alone, per Treasury disclosures — despite layered U.S. sanctions biting into Iran’s oil exports. However, a source familiar with the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control told The Cipher Brief on background that tracking Iran’s funds has become increasingly challenging in recent months.
“The Treasury and State Departments need more resources to track violations, and the government shutdown left many investigators sidelined,” the source observed. “Congress can help by requiring reports on Iranian weapons shipments and funding enforcement teams.”
The Iranian cash flows through hawala networks and Beirut’s labyrinthine exchange houses, where operatives like Jaber convert petrodollars into untraceable Lebanese pounds. It’s a masterclass in sanctions evasion: Iran’s regime, squeezed by domestic protests and a rial in freefall, prioritizes its “Axis of Resistance” over breadlines at home.
“Assad’s downfall severely crimped Hezbollah’s pipeline from Tehran, but even so, Hezbollah and Iran remain adept at exploiting fragile states. Beirut and Damascus show some interest in interdiction. Still, both are weak governments, and they have other priorities,” Jonathan Ruhe, Director of Foreign Policy at the JINSA Gemunder Center for Defense & Strategy, tells The Cipher Brief. “Iran also exploits power vacuums in Sudan and Libya to resupply Hezbollah from the sea, using surreptitious maritime tactics like Iran’s sanctions-busting ‘shadow fleets.’”
Post-war Syria has forced Tehran to improvise. The once-feared land bridge — stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon — has been battered by Israeli airstrikes and rebel attacks, yet parts of it still survive. To bolster its Middle East proxy, the Iranian regime has upped its use of maritime routes. Iranian cargo ships dock at Syria’s Tartus port under civilian manifests, offloading drone kits and rocket fuel disguised as fertilizer. Trucks then traverse the unguarded border into Lebanon’s Qalamoun Mountains, often chaperoned by IRGC advisors.
Domestically, however, Hezbollah is reducing reliance on imports. Clandestine factories in Beirut’s Dahiyeh suburbs and Bekaa orchards churn out refurbished Kornet anti-tank missiles and Ababil drones from scavenged parts. There is a reported network of 50-plus workshops, some powered by smuggled Chinese microchips, slashing reliance on vulnerable sea lanes. Despite its own economic ailments, Tehran continues to give precedence to Hezbollah’s position as a frontline deterrent over short-term financial stability.
Rebuilding the Arsenal: From Ashes to Drones
Israeli assessments estimate Hezbollah has reclaimed just 20 percent of its pre-war precision arsenal, but what emerges is nimbler and deadlier in specific domains. Drones top the list: low-cost Shahed-136 clones, assembled from Iranian blueprints and Syrian-sourced engines, can loiter over Galilee for hours, scouting IDF positions or delivering 50 kg (110pounds) warheads. Short-range Fajr-5 rockets, concealable in olive groves, are proliferating under civilian camouflage — mosques, schools, even UNIFIL outposts.
Smuggling remains vital. Iran’s military equipment, including advanced components for precision-guided missiles (PGMs), is first transported into Syria using an array of methods designed to evade international scrutiny. Non-descript convoys then travel from Syria’s Homs City to the border city of Al-Qusayr near Lebanon. The Syrian-Lebanese border in the Homs/Al-Qusayr area is porous, mountainous, and complex to police. Over the course of this year, Israel has conducted more than 40 strikes intercepting shipments near the southern coast of the city of Tyre. Yet the cat-and-mouse game favors smugglers. Private companies, fronts for IRGC logistics, reportedly run nighttime operations mixing weapons with sacks of flour labeled as aid.
“Even before October 7, Hezbollah tried to make precision munitions with Iranian help,” Ruhe noted. “Tehran is now redoubling these efforts. For all Israel’s successes over the last two years, it struggled to wage a multifront war of attrition, and it struggled to defeat Hezbollah’s drones. Hezbollah and Iran want to exploit this exact weakness by being able to oversaturate Israeli defenses with mass drone swarms, similar to what Iran helps Russia do against Ukraine.”
Indeed, Hezbollah’s rebuilding of its ranks is quieter but no less strategic. After losing an estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters, the group now runs “resistance summer camps” in the Litani Valley, teaching teenagers bomb-making and cyber tactics under the guise of community service. Morale has waned, but ideology endures: recruits draw strength from chants of Nasrallah’s martyrdom.
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The Long Game: Shadows on the Northern Border
For Israel, the situation is a high-stakes strategic battle. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s cabinet has stepped up its drone strikes into Lebanon in recent weeks, and preemptive raids to enforce ceasefire arms restrictions are not off the table. Nonetheless, Hezbollah leaders in November rejected talks, and in an official letter to the Lebanese government, insisted that “any attempt at political negotiations with Israel does not serve Lebanon’s national interest.” The statement both rallies supporters and signals Tehran’s firm stance. Iran’s approach is one of “strategic latency” — maintaining a constant, restrained threat to deter Israel without triggering all-out war.
The United States also has global interests at risk. Hezbollah’s networks extend into Latin America and Africa, where they help launder money through drug and diamond trades. Those funds could support operations that reach U.S. soil. Washington’s current strategy — including a $230 million-plus aid package to Lebanon tied to reforms — aims to cut off Hezbollah’s financial base.
This fragile financial and operational landscape underscores that, despite international efforts, Hezbollah’s on-the-ground capabilities remain resilient and difficult to fully contain. A spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State tells The Cipher Brief that while “the Government of Lebanon made a courageous and historic decision to restore state authority by ordering the disarming of Hezbollah and establishing the Lebanese Armed Forces and Internal Security Forces as the legitimate forces for Lebanon, the credibility of Lebanon’s government rests on its ability to transform words into action.”
“The region and world are watching carefully,” the spokesperson continued. “Disarming Hezbollah and other non-state actors, as well as ending Iran’s proxy activities, is crucial to ensuring peace in Lebanon and across the region. The United States of America commends the Government of Lebanon’s efforts to ensure Lebanon is sovereign, peaceful, prosperous, and safe for all Lebanese people.”
Zehavi also pointed to the gap between hopes for disarmament and reality.
“The Lebanese Army is not entering villages and into the private properties where Hezbollah is actually hiding its weapons down,” she explained. “If this continues this way, and it looks like this is where it is going, what we will see is a very unstable situation.”
Lebanon, however, may face the most direct consequences. Hezbollah functions as both a militia and a provider of social services. Several of its clinics are also used as bunkers, and Tehran-financed roads routinely lead to new depots and launch locations. As Zehavi highlights, Hezbollah is rebuilding on two fronts: strengthening its military infrastructure while expanding civilian programs to maintain local support.
The organization, experts say, is not right now preparing for a major offensive but focuses on smaller, ongoing operations — perhaps cyberattacks on Haifa’s ports, sniper fire along the border, and drone swarms testing Israel’s defenses. Iran’s proxy strategy remains intact despite sanctions and setbacks.
Yet, according to Ruhe, if the United States, Europe, and Arab partners enforce UN sanctions on Iran’s rearming of Hezbollah and back Beirut, a better-than-status-quo scenario is possible.
“(But) if Hezbollah and Iran believe Beirut is alone, and that Israel will be isolated for acting militarily, then it’s a matter of when — not if — Hezbollah recovers,” he continued. “And the more successfully it helps Hezbollah rebuild, the more likely Iran will test Israeli and U.S. resolve with its own rearmament.”
For Western policymakers, the objectives are clear: disrupt Hezbollah’s finances, bolster Lebanon’s government, and limit the group’s military power. Otherwise, the risk grows of a wider northern conflict that could draw in larger powers.
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Microsoft is creating a new internal mechanism for employees to report concerns about how its technology is developed and used — making the process similar to how workers already flag incidents of workplace misbehavior, security issues, or legal concerns.
In a message to employees Wednesday morning, company President Brad Smith said Microsoft was expanding its internal “Integrity Portal” to let workers raise issues related to the development and deployment of its technology. The new feature, called “Trusted Technology Review,” will allow employees to report information or concerns about potential policy violations.
Smith said the company is also changing its processes to “strengthen our existing pre-contract review process for evaluating engagements that require additional human-rights due diligence.”
The moves come after months of pressure inside and outside Microsoft over Israel’s use of the company’s technology in military and surveillance activities linked to the war in Gaza.
Microsoft has faced repeated protests from employees and activists, including a group called No Azure for Apartheid, which has accused Microsoft of enabling human-rights abuses through its cloud and artificial-intelligence services.
The company has said it is committed to upholding its human-rights principles and does not provide technology to facilitate mass surveillance of civilians.
In September, the company confirmed it had found evidence supporting parts of a Guardian investigation that Israeli military intelligence used Microsoft’s Azure cloud to store and analyze large volumes of intercepted Palestinian phone calls. Microsoft said it had since cut off access to certain cloud and AI services used by Unit 8200, Israel’s military intelligence agency.
“We continue to consider lessons learned and apply them to how we run our business and advance our mission in an increasingly complex world,” Smith wrote in the new message. He noted that employees can submit information anonymously, and Microsoft’s non-retaliation policy will also apply.
Separately, the Guardian recently reported that Israel’s cloud deals with Amazon and Google include a secret mechanism allowing the government to be alerted if a foreign legal order seeks its data. The report said Microsoft’s unsuccessful bid for that contract, known as Project Nimbus, faltered because the company refused to accept all of Israel’s demands.
Amazon responded at the time: “We do not have any processes in place to circumvent our confidentiality obligations on lawfully binding orders.”
Here is the full text of Smith’s message, obtained by GeekWire.
Hello Everyone –
You’ll recall that on September 25, I shared with you actions we took after investigating a news story that reported that Azure was being used to store phone call data obtained through mass surveillance of civilians in Gaza and the West Bank. In that message, I also said we’d continue to share lessons learned and how we will apply these going forward. Today I want to share additional steps we are taking to enhance our due diligence and governance processes. This is a part of an ongoing process and, as we continue to learn more, we’ll share further steps with you.
Today we are strengthening our diligence processes by expanding how employees can report information and concerns about how Microsoft technology is developed and deployed. These build on our long-established reporting and investigations processes on workplace behavior, legal and ethical concerns, and digital and physical security — all of which make it easy for employees to raise concerns through the Microsoft Integrity Portal.
We’re adding a new and easy way for employees to report information about practices that you believe may violate the company’s policies regarding the development and deployment of our technology. This is through a new section in the Microsoft Integrity Portal called “Trusted Technology Review.” Moving forward, if you have information on these topics, simply go to the portal and select the “Trusted Technology Review” when asked for type of report. We will then follow up to address this information. Our standard non-retaliation policy applies and you can raise concerns anonymously.
As part of our commitment to ongoing improvement, we are also taking new steps to enhance other aspects of our governance processes. As one step in that work, we are working to strengthen our existing pre-contract review process for evaluating engagements that require additional human rights due diligence.
As I’ve shared before, Microsoft is a company guided by principles and ethics. We continue to consider lessons learned and apply them to how we run our business and advance our mission in an increasingly complex world. We’ll continue to listen and learn and share new steps with you along the way.
Brad
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza must stop. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, a sovereign nation with 1994 security assurances from Russia, has killed or maimed tens of thousands of combatants and civilians. Efforts by President Donald Trump to end this war have failed, with an emboldened Vladimir Putin escalating hostilities in Ukraine, while probing the credibility of NATO, flying drones into Poland and Romania and recently violating Estonia’s airspace. This is the Putin who lamented the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and vowed to recreate the Russian Empire. And that’s what he’s doing. Georgia and Crimea in 2008 and 2014 was a prelude to his invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Baltic states - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – are next, on Putin’s quest to recreate the Russian Empire.
It's obvious what Putin is doing. He got away with Georgia and Crimea and Putin is confident he’ll prevail in Ukraine with minimal consequences. So, what could the UN do to sanction Russia for its violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty? Indeed, there should be an outcry from the UN demanding that Mr. Putin halt his invasion of Ukraine and enter negotiations with Kyiv.
Iran’s continued refusal to permit UN nuclear inspections and refusal to resume nuclear talks with the U.S. resulted in the reimposition — on September 28 — of sanctions lifted in 2015. So, given that Iran has not changed its attitude and in fact has become more defiant, “snap back” sanctions ban nuclear enrichment, establish an arms embargo and ban tests and transfers of ballistic missiles. It’s clear that Iran wants the option to acquire nuclear weapons capability. A nuclear-armed Iran will be an existential threat to Israel -- an adversary Iran wants to annihilate – and the region.
But for Iran it’s more than acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism, working with its proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis -- to destabilize and terrorize the region. On September 17, the Department of State also designated three Iraqi militia groups aligned with Iran as terrorist organizations. These terrorist groups have attacked the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and bases hosting U.S. and Canadian forces.
Indeed, the human rights situation in Iran is equally dismal. The 2009 presidential election protests and the 2022 killing of Mahsa Amini by the so-called morality police for incorrectly wearing her head scarf sparked national protests that were brutally suppressed by the ruling theocracy. Nationwide arrests and executions were conducted by a weak and corrupt theocracy that was threatened by the public and its outcry for justice and liberty.
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Ensuring that food and water are available to the people of Gaza is a priority objective, as is ending this bloody war. The onslaught in Gaza was caused by Hamas’s October 7 attacks that killed approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and the abduction of 251 hostages. This was the bloodiest day for Israel since its independence on May 14, 1948. Indeed, Hamas is a terrorist organization closely affiliated with Iran, which provides Hamas with the weaponry and support needed for its acts of terrorism.
The situation in the South China Sea could escalate quickly between China and the Philippines. The irony is that a 2016 ruling by a UN-backed arbitration tribunal invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, ruling overwhelmingly with the Philippines. The ruling was deemed final and binding, although China has rejected the ruling and continues to defy it.
These are just some of the national security issues the UN should openly discuss and attempt to resolve. The wars and turmoil in Myanmar, Sudan, Yemen, Haiti and Libya also require immediate UN attention. This is the mission of the UN.
This column by Cipher Brief Expert Joseph Detrani was first published in The Washington Times.
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EXPERT PERSPECTIVE – The White House rolled out a 20-point plan on Monday calling for a permanent truce in Israel's war against Hamas that calls for the release of hostages. President Trump is calling the plan the most significant effort yet to secure peace in the region.
Cipher Brief Expert General Jack Keane (Ret.), a trusted advisor to the president who declined multiple overtures to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense during the first Trump administration, met recently in the region with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Isaac Herzog and Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer as well as senior IDF leaders to talk about what is needed for lasting peace and how to curb Iran's influence via proxies like Hamas.
After those meetings, we asked Gen. Keane for his assessment of the situation on the ground, whether he believes Israel is capable of sustaining wars on three separate fronts (Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen), and whether he believes Hamas will ever accept a deal that requires them to surrender power. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length.
THE INTERVIEW
General Jack Keane (Ret.), a four-star general, retired after 37 years of military service culminating in his appointment as acting Chief of Staff and Vice Chief of Staff of the US Army. General Keane is president of GSI Consulting and serves as chairman of the Institute for the Study of War. In 2020, Gen. Keane was presented with the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Donald Trump.
Kelly: As you’ve just returned from the Middle East where you engaged in a number of high-level meetings with senior Israeli leaders, what is your raw assessment of events on the ground?
Gen. Keane: There's a major paradigm shift strategically taking place in the Middle East as a result of Israel’s - supported by the United States - domination of Iran and its proxies. And it's hard to overstate the significance of it. The reality is that it's a sea change that's going to be felt for decades, and there is such huge opportunity here - once and for all - to stabilize the Middle East. But it’s an opportunity that requires follow-up with the Iranians to keep the pressure on economically and diplomatically. Iran is so much more vulnerable now after the defeat that Israel has handed to them.
Israel also needs to stay focused on the proxies - obviously Hamas, and hopefully, we will see a deal here pretty soon. Either they surrender or Israel will force them to give up power and get the hostages back as well.
Israel also must continue to push back on the Houthis. While we were there, there were three attacks in the vicinity where we were staying, during a nine-day trip. The Houthis are launching individual missiles or drones, but not in volleys. These are more - in military terms - harassment attacks, but Israel is pushing back hard on Houthis by destroying their valuable infrastructure.
Hezbollah has been completely decapitated, and every time Hezbollah tries to move into Southern Lebanon, Israel conducts airstrikes as they just absolutely refuse to let them rebuild in that area. Israel has conducted over a thousand airstrikes to make sure they don’t reconstitute in the South without much media coverage. When I met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, I told him that I think there are two major lessons learned here for Israel. One is that you can never, ever again, permit Iran's proxies to build up capability on your border. And that is obviously significantly for Hamas, as well as Hezbollah.
And the second is that you've got to work yourself into a position where you're much more independent of the United States. I said, "You can't afford, going forward, to go through these political swings that we have now in national security and foreign policy in America where one Administration fully supports with everything you need and another Administration holds back what you need.
During the Cold War, the U.S. had a fairly consistent policy whether the Democrats or Republicans were in charge. For sure, some of the methods were changed from one administration to the next, but the objectives were pretty much the same: contain the Soviet Union.
Recently, we’ve gone through major swings. The previous administration - much more so than the American people realize - pulled the plug on a lot of the vital ammunition and weapons that Israel needed, and then they micromanaged how they conduct a war and this was being led by civilians out of the White House who had absolutely no competence in doing something like that, and Israel can't afford to go through another swing like that.
So, my advice is to get as close to being completely independent of the United States for weapons and ammunition but not independent of the United States in terms of geopolitical support or moral support, to be sure.
But the opportunities today are pretty significant and they're already taking place.
There is now work toward normalization of relations with Lebanon and Lebanon is talking about disarming Hezbollah. Who would've thought that something like that could have taken place just a couple of years ago?
Bashar al-Assad is gone in Syria and in Israel, Ron Dermer, the Minister of Strategic Affairs in Israel, who I spoke to at length, is working very hard to develop a security agreement with Syria and the new regime. They have their eyes wide open. They know that Ahmed Al-Sharaa is former al-Qaeda and that organization is still supporting him, but he's trying to consolidate all the different factions in Syria. And Israel doesn’t want any of those factions coming south and interfering with their security.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) took me into Syria to show me their defensive positions that they've established there. That makes some sense. I doubt if they will give any of that up in this security agreement, but the fact that there are serious negotiations going on is pretty significant.
In Gaza, hopefully we will get a deal here pretty soon, and that will certainly enable a lot of other things to happen once the fighting stops. But the Abraham Accords, despite the attack on the Qataris, despite the prolonged and protracted war in Gaza, the feedback that I got from Israeli leadership is that the Arabs are still interested in normalizing the relationship. They know that it's going to add to peace and stability in the region. It’s not necessarily easy, but it's something that has huge strategic potential for the future.
I think Turkey is a real challenge. President Recip Tayyip Erdogan had great influence on Al-Sharaa seizing power. I think he wants to control Syrian leadership and he's anti-Israel, he's pro-Hamas, he's Muslim Brotherhood, and he has been a thorn in the side of Democratic and Republican administrations for years, despite the fact that he's a member of NATO. I think when we're dealing with Erdogan, even though he's been there longer than we would like to see, we have to look beyond him and look at the strategic place that Turkey holds in the Middle East and in Europe. They're the second-largest military in Europe, after Russia. The largest military member of NATO in Europe, obviously the United States is more powerful than them. So, they have huge capability, and while Erdogan frustrates us quite a bit, I think we need to figure out a way to work with him in our interest and Israel's interest despite his anti-Israel attitude.
And as much as that may be an opportunity, it's probably more of a challenge. President Trump is cutting the deal with him in the memorandum of understanding to build small modular nuclear reactors and the large nuclear reactors in the future. Turkey has one that was built by Russia and the fact that we're trying to pull him away from Russia, that's a good thing and could create some balance. If we just shut him down and don't want to deal with him because we don't like his attitude on a number of things, he'll just turn to Russia and China and that doesn't make any sense, strategically.
My overall take on this, is that if we continue to stay engaged and really finish Iran’s ability to be a destabilizer in the region, then the potential for stability and growth in the region - in the way that everybody's been hoping for, is really on the horizon.
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Kelly: Prime Minister Netanyahu was just in New York at the United Nations saying that Israel must finish the job in Gaza. You mentioned an agreement on the table. Do you have anything that makes you think Hamas would agree to it?
Gen. Keane: I don't know. I have great skepticism. We have been here so many times, where the United States, Israel and the Qataris have said, "We're really close to a deal." And then at the last minute, Hamas finds some reason to reject it. Hamas' real issue is that they want to stay in control of Gaza. Israel does not want that to happen, the United States does not want that to happen, and usually they foreclose on not making the deal because they don't want to give up control. Hopefully this time they're willing to, and that control would turn over to some representation of the Palestinians and Arab authorities and would allow for some kind of a stabilization force. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said time and time again, "I don't want to occupy Gaza. That's not in Israel's interest.”
Kelly: Yeah. Let's switch for just a moment to Russia. There’s been a change in the relationship between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the last several months. President Trump has shown his growing frustration with Putin's lack of interest in actually ending the war in Ukraine. Where do you see the path forward there?
Gen. Keane: Just as you say, it's been eight months, and the president has admitted that he thought this was going to be easier than how it has turned out because he had such a positive relationship with Putin. But Putin's strategic objectives are very clear. He wants to take control of Ukraine, put in place a stooge government and expand into Eastern Europe, and he's dead set on that. Nothing to date has convinced him to change those objectives. In other words, he believes continuing the war is in his national interest so that Moscow can achieve those objectives, and nothing we have done has dissuaded him from that. So, what the president has done, I think, is to be patient with him, despite the fact that Putin delays, obfuscates, tries to confuse, et cetera. The Alaska Summit was a pivotal moment. There is no doubt that Putin made an overture to President Trump that he was willing to meet with President Zelensky following the summit, not immediately, but in a short period of time and that he was also willing to have a three-party meeting to include President Trump. The very next day, Putin’s spokesperson said that there are no plans for a meeting between President Zelenskyy and President Putin, and if there were going to be plans, there would have to be some conditions established and negotiated before there would ever be a meeting such as that.
I think based on that, the president realized that Putin continues to lie consistently and especially during the last couple of months of the negotiations. And even post Alaska Summit, Putin has done what? He has militarily escalated the war, not a little bit, but quite significantly and his attacks are largely focused against the Ukrainian people with hundreds and hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles a night, raining down on them and hitting their energy infrastructure. He knows winter is coming and he wants the lights to be out and the heat to be off and for them to suffer.
And as of right now, there is somewhere in the neighborhood of 11,000 to 15,000 kidnapped Ukrainian children who are still in Russia's hands. We know this from multiple international sources and that, in of itself, is a war crime and really horrific. So, when you put all of that together; the delay tactics, the lies that he's been telling the President, and the military escalation, even as the president is trying to bring him to the negotiating table, he can’t be trusted.
Russia is weak economically, weak militarily, and they can be stopped. Not only can they be stopped, but they can be overtaken by the Ukrainian military. That is not a new thought process for the president. What's new now is that he is talking about it publicly. I can tell you for a fact that he's known for some time how weak Russia is economically and how weak they are militarily. Moscow is conducting a massive narrative that they're succeeding on offensive operations. “They're overwhelming the Ukrainians. It's just a matter of time. This is a war of attrition. The West, the United States and the Europeans, I can outlast them. They will eventually give in and we will win.” That has been his narrative. And now the president, I think, has made the decision to give up on Putin, and he's obviously talking to the public more about his perception of Putin, his perception of Russia, and the status that they have. That's step one. He hasn't changed any policy, but he's changed the narrative.
What remains to be seen is step two, and is the president going to continue what he said he would do, which is increase military and economic pressure on Russia? Military pressure could stop Russia cold from taking any more territory. And by the way, in the last two years, they've only increased the territory under their control by only 1% out of the 20% they control. And the president could also permit Ukraine to attack deep into Russia with increased long-range weapons and remove any restrictions on the use of those weapons. That would be significant military pressure.
We've been talking about economic pressure for weeks. Europeans must stop buying oil and gas from Russia. It’s shameful that they're still doing it, and very hypocritical. As the president says, "You are fueling Putin's war at the same time that you're supporting Ukraine. It makes no sense."
And then the United States needs to do the same in terms of sanctions and tariffs. That would be a part of a step two that makes the most sense. The sooner we get about that, the better. The president has said that in the past, and I believe that is what should be done. It's his decision, certainly, and we'll see what's going to happen next.
Kelly: As you mentioned, winter is coming, and Vladimir Putin knows how to take advantage of that time. How have you seen Russia expand military actions over the past few weeks?
Gen. Keane: We saw within the last week, Russia’s military activities escalating into violating Poland's airspace with war-like instruments. In this case, 19 drones penetrated Polish airspace and there was a smaller incursion in Romania and fighter jets violating Estonia's airspace as well. NATO must come to the conclusion that this activity is an Article 5 violation, and they have every right to shoot at those aircraft if they do it again. If they don't do that, if they wring their hands and continue to talk about it and push back rhetorically on Russia, what they'll see next is not a handful of drones but hundreds of drones and eventually a thousand drones that would absolutely overwhelm all of their air defense systems. These are acts of war, and they should be responded in kind. That doesn't mean that Poland's going to declare war on Russia, but I am suggesting they have every right to shoot at somebody who violates their airspace with warplanes. And that will get Putin's attention. Otherwise, if we don't do it and we just continue to use rhetoric, Putin will expand to other countries and increase the scale of the attack to weaken NATO and force the Europeans to focus more on their defense and less on Ukraine’s.
Putin is not reckless. He's a killer. He's a thug. He's ruthless, but he's not reckless. He's actually quite deliberate and methodical. We've been watching him for 25 years. Those of us who know him can almost call his plays because he's so predictable. Push back on him with strength and he will shut it down.
Updated to reflect White House release of the 20-point plan on Monday.
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OPINION — Israel’s Operation Rising Lion will go down as among the most impressive military campaigns in history. Military academies, military planners, and the Intelligence Community will study it for decades. More urgent, however, is that policymakers understand the importance of U.S. support in enabling Israel to advance our shared interests.
In less than a fortnight, Israel brought to its knees a major regional adversary, geographically nearly 75 times its size and 1,000 miles away. As we learned on a recent trip to Israel with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, Israel—with crucial U.S. support—crippled Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, dismantled its air defenses, and decapitated its command and control. At the Pentagon’s request, Israeli pilots cleared the way for U.S. B-2 bombers.
Since first exposing Iran’s nuclear weapons program in 1994, Israel knew that it might need to take military action. Yet, June’s attack was only seven months in the making. At the end of 2024, a narrower plan based on precision strikes against a few nuclear facilities was shelved and a far broader campaign was developed from scratch—targeting not only the entirety of Iran’s nuclear supply chain, but its ballistic missiles, top generals, and leading nuclear scientists as well.
What made that sweeping operation feasible was an extraordinary string of Israeli successes since the brutal Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Israel defeated Hamas, decimated Hezbollah, defended itself against hundreds of Iranian-launched ballistic missiles and thousands of drones, eliminated Syrian anti-air batteries, and knocked out Iran’s advanced Russian S-300 air defenses, opening an unimpeded corridor to Iran.
Suddenly, Iran was more exposed than at any point in the last forty years. The regime responded by accelerating both its nuclear weapons research and missile production. Israel now had both the opportunity and urgent need to act quickly and comprehensively against myriad Iranian targets.
Rapidly expanding its war plan required Israel to gather intelligence on hundreds of additional targets, develop new capabilities and operational concepts, and ready large numbers of personnel for new and unfamiliar missions. It wasn’t until earlier this year, for example, that Israel decided to use its full fleet of combat aircraft - including older F-16s - against Iran. And it was just days before the June 13 “go” date that the operation’s final pieces were put in place.
The extraordinary agility and ingenuity of Israel’s planning was exceeded only by the excellence of its military execution. The campaign started with a surprise attack that combined exquisite intelligence with perfectly synchronized operations—including stand-off weapons, forward-deployed drones, and clandestine ground teams—to eliminate Iran’s top military command and leading scientists in the war’s first minutes.
Drawing on the full-range of its advanced capabilities - including indigenously developed air launched munitions and complex cyber operations - Israel systematically neutralized Iran’s air defenses, establishing total air superiority from the Iraqi border to Tehran in just forty-eight hours. For the rest of the war, Israeli jets owned the skies over their greatest enemy’s capital. Operating without challenge, Israeli UAVs blanketed Iranian missile sites, providing persistent intelligence and hunting missile launchers before they could fire.
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Essential to Israel’s success were its two squadrons of F-35 fifth-generation fighters. Every strike package had several of them in the lead. F-15 pilots told us they felt less safe without an F-35 nearby. The aircraft’s next generation avionics allowed pilots to detect and defeat Iranian defenses that intelligence had not previously identified—even when they obscured their position by keeping sensors turned off until Israeli jets were near.
Israel’s achievements are extraordinary. For the first time, a U.S. ally has taken the lead, utilizing American weapons, in achieving a decades-long, bipartisan U.S. national security objective - preventing a nuclear Iran - and has dealt a serious blow to our most dangerous enemy in a part of the world that has long been deemed vital to U.S. interests, and, in doing so, has almost single-handedly transformed the Middle East’s balance of power in favor of the West.
This success was enabled not by the United States joining the fight, vital though that was, but by the decades-long U.S. investment in Israel’s ability to defend itself - through weapons sales, joint training and intelligence sharing. Not to mention Israel’s fierce determination to fight back.
The lessons for policymakers from Operation Rising Lion are clear: Israel is a U.S. national security asset and we need more allies equally determined and capable.
The Iran war is not yet over; if left unchecked, Iran may well reconstitute its nuclear program, ballistic missiles, or terrorist network. Russia remains an aggressor and China the pacing threat. The United States should find and support regional partners, like Israel. Provide them with the weapons, intelligence, advanced technology, and political support needed to address these threats.
That’s real burden sharing—a local partner prepared to carry the lion’s share of the responsibility, not to mention the fighting and dying, to counter shared threats.
General Charles Wald, USAF (ret.), served as the deputy commander of U.S. European Command. Lieutenant General Robert P. Ashley, USA (ret.), was the 21st Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. Vice Admiral Mark Fox, USN (ret.), served as Deputy Commander of U.S. Central Command. All three are members of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s (JINSA) Iran War Assessment.
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Opinions expressed are those of the author and do not represent the views or opinions of The Cipher Brief.
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EXPERT INTERVIEW – The military operation dubbed ‘Summit of Fire’ by Israel Defense Forces targeting a Hamas delegation meeting in Doha, Qatar this week has complicated an already fragile ecosystem in The Middle East as experts assess the broader regional impact.
The operation carried out on Tuesday, reportedly killed five members of the delegation which had gathered to discuss a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal to end Israel’s war against Hamas, but early reports indicate that the operation failed to kill senior Hamas leaders.
“What we're going to see is funerals roll out over the next few days, and that's going to be our indicator as to the Hamas members who survived and those who did not,” Norm Roule, former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran told The Cipher Brief in an exclusive interview.
Regardless of the success of Israel’s operation, experts are already assessing the broader impact of the strike – the first of its kind against a member country of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
THE CONTEXT
THE INTERVIEW
The Cipher Brief spoke with Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at ODNI - who travels regularly to the region for meetings with senior officials – about the most likely regional impact of Israel’s latest attack. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Norman Roule is a geopolitical and energy consultant who served for 34 years in the Central Intelligence Agency, managing numerous programs relating to Iran and the Middle East. He also served as the National Intelligence Manager for Iran (NIM-I)\n at ODNI, where he was responsible for all aspects of national intelligence policy related to Iran.
The Cipher Brief: An Israeli attack inside of Qatar is a risky endeavor at this point in Israel’s war against Hamas. There has been a lot of conversation about whether the U.S. had a knowledge of this attack in advance and how the White House has responded since.
Roule: Well, the White House has stated that the Israeli government did provide advanced notice. That language is very important because although the president of the United States did give a final warning to Hamas - and the president's final warnings tend to indeed have some finality to them based upon previous examples - it is almost certain that the United States would not have participated in the planning of an operation against Qatar, virtually certain. And indeed the Israeli government would not have wanted the United States to be involved in something like this. But the Israeli government would've wanted to tell the United States, "Look, this is happening. So if your forces do see incoming aircraft, this is not an adversary's aircraft coming in. They should not see this as an attack on themselves."
The White House has stated that advanced notice was given, and I believe the reports state that the president instructed notification to the Qataris so that they themselves would have been able to understand that this is not, say, the Iranians conducting a strike. And also to understand that this strike had a very limited purpose. It was not part of a broader campaign, and that they themselves should not take any broader action to escalate the conflict.
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The Cipher Brief: What does this attack mean for the region? It creates a lot more complications in an already incredibly complicated war against Hamas.
Roule: I think it's important that we first consider some of the perspective about what this means in the region as a whole. Prior to the October 7th war, Israel's security doctrine was ‘we have a great intelligence service’. The superb military and allies will stand with us. But that didn't do much to stop the October 7th war.
Since that conflict, their doctrine has changed and we've seen in this latest attack, the latest chapter in that doctrine, which now is that ‘we have a superb intelligence organization and it will identify our adversaries who were out to kill us, and our military is going to get to them first-no matter where they are. And we will take out high value targets using precision military technology that is far beyond the capability of any of our adversaries. And this will be anywhere, wherever our adversaries may be’. This started out in Beirut and moved to Syria and then it turned to Iran with the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in 2024. And we've seen it recently in Sana'a. And now we've seen within the GCC itself. This is a brand new Middle East in this regard.
For the Middle East, as they look at Israel and some have asked whether Israel is a disruptive actor, I think that's the wrong characterization. But it is a correct characterization to say that Israel will not tolerate the presence of aggressive lethal actors plotting the death of Israelis anywhere in the region any longer. And indeed, just two days ago, the same actors that Israel attacked in Doha were meeting the Iranian foreign minister, I think in the same location where the Israelis attacked.
Qatar has always been a very special location in this regard because Qatar was sort of like a Switzerland, if you can use that example. For several years, people could meet there; the Taliban, Hamas, and various U.S. administrations tolerated this. Indeed, the Israelis sent their own personnel to meet Hamas interlocutors there, and these Hamas interlocutors had blood on their hands. Clearly, that has now come to an end.
So now the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which is no friend of Hamas and has had its own issues with Qatar, will deliberate this issue. They will want to see how the dust settles. They will have a common position. They do not want this to escalate. But at the same time, they're looking at a region that is increasingly sensitive to this new Israeli posture.
The Cipher Brief: Doha responded robustly, condemning the attack. How do you think the U.S. should be influencing events moving forward?
Roule: The Qataris condemned the attack, unsurprisingly. This is a violation of their sovereignty. They've described this as a cowardly attack. They will certainly withdraw from playing a role as an interlocutor with the Israelis, that's unsurprising. This also means that the Qataris will call upon the GCC to stand with them in this position. And that's likely to happen.
They will ask the United States to restrain Israel from conducting similar attacks in the future and the United States will certainly do so. The United States does not wish to have a challenge, a problem of this nature with the Qataris for a number of reasons, ranging from our military relationship, to our security relationship, to our investment relationships with the Qataris. There are a variety of different reasons.
But the Qataris are going to want to maintain their domestic security, and they're not going to want to raise this as a broader problem.
At the end of the day, there's a reality that the Qataris have to deal with, too. Their commercial relationship with Iran through the South Pars Gas Field, that's not going go away. So their gas relationship is going to stay, but their engagement with Hamas, it's probably not going to be the same in the future - if only because most of the Hamas leadership is gone and the talks aren't going to continue.
I think in many ways, that the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East has been quite consistent and quite clear. They seek to ensure that there is no conventional war in the Middle East that involves U.S. forces. And that includes a conventional war in the Middle East that is instigated by Israel, and they've stuck to that. They will, however, participate in military action if Iran moves towards nuclear weaponization or militaries or terrorist attacks against the United States. And we saw that in June, but again, they ended that conflict rather crisply.
They will also pursue diplomatic activity robustly speaking with almost anyone – including Hamas - even if Israel is unhappy about it. They will speak with Iran, even if Israel's unhappy about it. But these have to be genuine talks. And if the Trump administration believes that their time is being wasted, as the president has repeatedly stated, then hell will be paid. And he's been quite clear on that. He will also provide military capacity to regional partners to conduct their own defense or regional offensive activities to achieve what they believe is necessary for their protection. And that could be regional actors conducting their own work against Iranian proxies, but also Israeli activities to conduct what it sees as its own work.
I think you might see the United States in essence, say to the region, ‘over to you to handle your own work, your own issues, because it's your problems to sort out increasingly’. As long as it doesn't create a disruptive conflict that ignites the region, as a whole.
The Cipher Brief: A solution to the Gaza conflict really does seem distant. We've talked now for a couple of years about what does the end state look like for Israel and it doesn't feel like we're any closer to an answer. What are the elements you’ll be looking for to indicate that a solution is on the horizon?
Roule: Well, here's another element where I've got to praise the Trump administration for a very consistent Middle Eastern policy. Again, whatever one's political views are, I can't think of another political administration in modern times that has devoted so much time and energy to the Middle East since its first moments in office. And we have seen even recently with the visit of former prime minister, Tony Blair and former special Middle East envoy, Jared Kushner to the White House, that even now, you see layers within layers within layers of activity and engagement and diplomatic engagement to try and come up with solutions that are outside of the limelight of what is a very contentious and very well-trodden diplomatic path. I do believe that we can see how this chaos will end. I don't know whether it will end in the near term or if we will ever get there, but you can see some elements of what the region is looking for.
So first, we will see some sort of humanitarian solution to provide the long-suffering Palestinians of Gaza with the food, education and medical care that they so desperately need to resolve what is rightfully a stain on our generation. And this is an enormous challenge because we now have some years of a population that have been denied these capacities, which has transformed the nature of this society. And I don't think we yet understand what this means as to who they will become.
What does it mean when you have teenagers who have not been to school for three or four years, who have not had education, internet, medical care, and have watched the world around them go in this direction? Who do they become in three to five years if they immigrate to other countries? Who are these people?
And I think we're going to see some solution involving the Gulf States and involving Gulf funding. And you're going to see Saudi Arabia and the Emirates in particular, provide education reform for the Palestinian authority or its successor. A reform of the engagement of the government, of the Palestinian entity with these people and its population so payments are made that don't support militancy and that human reform in terms of hiring is done that doesn't promote militancy.
And last, you're going to see some sort of capacity against corruption. Because that has, in essence, undermined the effectiveness of the Palestinian authority. You've got some problems here. You've got the issue of what do you do about the Palestinian authority, which was only supposed to be around for a few months and is led by someone who is terribly unpopular and doesn't seem to want to leave?
How is he handled in that political construct in the future? That issue will have to be resolved. You'll have some replacement entity created, perhaps involving the Palestinian authority or a successor. would think if I were creating this as an Arab-European construct with American leadership, you would want to have this supported by Israel, but not as an Israeli idea, but not blocked as an Israeli idea.
You're going to have to have something done to handle problem of settlers and the West Bank issue so that a viable political entity is at least a construct in people's heads. But in the short term, the idea of a Palestinian state is something that is very popular to talk about by people who, in essence, have the time to talk about it at coffee shops and in think tanks. But don't have to say, "Well, how do you do this on the ground in a Gaza or in a West Bank without, in essence, creating the same mess we have today?" That is years from happening.
So I think creating a state-like structure and then building towards a state at some point in the future where the adults on the ground are going to say, "We'll let the political actors or the people with time in their hands yak about a state, but we just want to get things working so that we can feed people and give them a life and then build toward that state." I think what I've just talked about in this messy way, those elements are all going to appear. But we're not there yet because the violence of Gaza remains a process. And the Israeli government is committed to a military solution. It doesn't seem to have an end game yet for what it sees in Gaza. Hamas appears to be moving hostages into Gaza City itself because it sees that as a way of putting more pressure on the Israeli government. So, we are still in this crucible of blood and violence for the near term, unhappily.
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OPINION — Israel’s intelligence penetration of Iran played out in dramatic form over the course of the 12-day war this summer, but Iran is running an aggressive recruitment and spying operation of its own targeting Israel. And while the two espionage campaigns are not comparable in scale, scope, or success, Israel’s domestic security agency was sufficiently concerned that in the wake of the war it partnered with the country’s national public diplomacy directorate to launch a media campaign warning Israelis against spying for Iran.
Over the course of the war, Israeli intelligence treated Iran like its backyard playground, recruiting sources, both Iranian citizens and citizens of neighboring countries, and inserting its operatives to gather intelligence on the country’s most secret nuclear facilities, scientists, and officials. These efforts enabled covert operations, including the construction of remotely controlled missile and drone systems inside central Iran, that struck Iranian targets from within at the very outset of the 12-day war. Iranians recruited by Israel even helped smuggle “technologically modified vehicles” into the country, which were used to target Iranian air defense positions and clear a path for Israeli aircraft entering Iranian airspace.
In the weeks since the war ended, Iranian officials have carried out a domestic witch hunt, arresting thousands of individuals in their search for people who spied for Israel. Iran even executed one of its own nuclear scientists, alleging he spied for Israel. Now, Iran aims to turn the tables on Israel by increasing its own network of people in Israel recruited to spy for Iran.
It is now clear, however, that at the same time Israeli intelligence was recruiting sources and operatives in Iran, Iran was doing the same in Israel, just to a much smaller effect. While Iranian efforts to infiltrate and surveil targets in Israel date back to at least 2013, Israeli intelligence organizations have documented a significant surge in Iranian efforts to recruit both Israeli and non-Israeli citizens to spy for Iran, beginning in early 2020. Unlike Israel’s penetration of key Iranian intelligence and nuclear agencies, Iranian espionage in Israel remains at the edges, probing at the margins in its attempts to penetrate Israeli intelligence and society. These typically involve digital recruitment targeting Israelis in financial straits.
At first, Iran only tasked its recruits to collect basic information on the location of Israeli military bases and Israeli leaders, and to post anti-government signs and graffiti in public places to brew domestic dissent. Indeed, in the days before the 12-day war, Iranian officials boasted that the regime’s spy networks in Israel acquired sensitive documents about Israel's nuclear program. Iran’s minister of intelligence, Esmail Khatib, said that “complete nuclear files were obtained, along with documents related to [Israel’s] connections with the U.S., Europe, and other countries, as well as intelligence that strengthens Iran’s offensive capabilities.”
But starting in mid-2024–between the Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel in April and the ballistic missile attack in October– the Iranians started tasking recruits not only to carry out acts of espionage but also arson and even murder plots targeting Israeli scientists, journalists, security and military leaders, and senior politicians. Israeli officials described the spike in the number of plots as “unprecedented.” Israel Police Superintendent Maor Goren said, “If we go check the last years – the last decades – we can count on two hands how many people got arrested for this.”
While none of the murder plots came to fruition, Israeli authorities report that several came very close to being carried out and were thwarted at the last minute. And unlike pure espionage cases, which often take time to develop, some of the murder plots were being planned as soon as 9 days after initial recruitment. In other cases, Israeli authorities only discovered a cell of persons of Azeri descent who had been carrying out espionage operations as a team, some two years after they started spying on Israel. They were spotted when they moved from spying on military sites to conducting surveillance of a senior Israeli military figure they were told to kill.
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The Washington Institute’s Iranian External Operations Map, which tracks Iranian plots abroad, has documented at least 31 plots carried out by Iranian-recruited Israelis in Israel. These recruits have sprayed graffiti and lit fires across Israel, in addition to collecting basic information on military bases, government officials, and nuclear scientists to send back to their handlers in Iran. However, Iranian efforts to recruit Israeli spies have not led to a single successful assassination or targeted attack in Israel. Iran conducts its recruitment primarily online via Telegram, WhatsApp, and social media platforms, although there are a few instances of Iranian handlers approaching potential recruits in person while abroad. Recruitment efforts appear to rely heavily on financial incentives while also exploiting existing social cleavages. Out of the 31 cases carried out by Israeli perpetrators documented by the Washington Institute, 20 involved some type of monetary compensation, usually via cryptocurrency.
While the Israeli perpetrators in 25 out of the 31 cases knew, or at least suspected, that they were working on behalf of the Iranians, many rationalized their actions as falling short of full-blown espionage. The tasks assigned to these individuals varied widely. Some were given relatively harmless assignments, such as tagging graffiti or putting up posters, while others appeared to be amateurish or unskilled in their roles. However, not all the recruits were unsophisticated. Several engaged in more serious activities, including intelligence collection and attempts to recruit others– sometimes even targeting their own family members to expand the network.
Consider the case of father and son, Bassem and Tahrir Safadi, residents of the Druze village of Mas'ade, who were arrested for spying on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force. At the request of his father, Tahrir would allegedly collect information on IDF movements in the Golan Heights and report to Hussam as-Salam Tawfiq Zidan, a journalist at Al-Alam News Network, an Iranian state-owned news outlet. Zidan, who lived in Damascus and worked for the Palestine division of the Quds Force, is accused of requesting Bassem and Tahrir to take photos of troops, tank movements, equipment, and more.
One of the most serious plots Israel thwarted is the 2024 assassination plot against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and former Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar. Moti Maman, a businessman with connections to Turkey and Iran, allegedly travelled to Turkey and Iran twice to meet with Iranian intelligence officials to further the plots against Netanyahu, Gallant, and Bar. Maman was also allegedly directed to intimidate Israeli civilians working for Iran who had failed to complete their missions, to find Russians or Americans who could be tasked with assassinating Iranian dissidents in the United States and Europe, and to attempt to recruit a Mossad officer to act as a double agent. Before leaving Iran for the second time, Maman received 5,000 euros from the Iranian intelligence agents for attending the meetings. According to the Shin Bet, Iranian officials viewed the assassination plots as acts of revenge for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
In total, The Washington Institute has documented 39 known Iranian plots in Israel from 2013-2025, 31 of which involved Israeli nationals, the rest involved Palestinians or other non-Israeli citizens. Several of these plots had multiple perpetrators, bringing the total number of Israeli participants in those 31 cases to more than 45 individuals. According to the National Public Diplomacy Directorate, indictments have been filed against 35 Israeli citizens involved in these cases. The age of the perpetrators ranges from 13 to 73, with over half in their teens or twenties. The individuals recruited came from a range of backgrounds, such as Azerbaijani or the Caucasus region, and the targets of their espionage efforts included both security infrastructure and broader social vulnerabilities, including the Iron Dome, government officials, Muhane Yehuda market, IDF bases, nuclear scientists and facilities, and malls and hospitals. The wide breadth of targets illustrates how Iranian intelligence sought to exploit financial, ideological, and personal incentives to build influence inside Israel.
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Iranian Minister of Intelligence Esmail Khatib described Iranian espionage and sabotage plots in Israel as a key part of Iran’s broader war against Israel. "The Zionist regime must confront a strategy of internal aggression within itself,” he said a month after the 12-day war concluded, “and just as our armed forces' effective missiles compelled them to halt [the war], all intelligence and security agencies are also exerting effort, and in recent days, you have seen they were forced to conduct briefing sessions to counter the infiltration of intelligence services within the Zionist regime."
In response to Iranian recruitment efforts in Israel, the Shin Bet, in partnership with the National Public Diplomacy Directorate, launched a nationwide public-awareness campaign titled “Easy Money, Heavy Price,” to warn Israelis against spying for Iran. Running across radio, online platforms, and social media, the campaign warns that even modest payments from Iran, roughly $1,500, can result in severe consequences. The ads note that some who accepted money from Iran are now in prison, and that assisting Tehran can carry penalties of up to 15 years in jail.
Still, it's important to contextualize these plots. None came close to matching the level of operational complexity, strategic impact, or tradecraft displayed by Israel in its operations against Hezbollah or Iran. While Israel slowly vets and trains its potential recruits, the Iranians engage in shotgun recruitment online, with few recruits going to meet their handlers in places like Turkey or for training in Iran. The two sides are operating on completely different levels of intelligence capability and sophistication. Nevertheless, the Israeli authorities have treated these cases with appropriate seriousness, underscoring the potential long-term threat posed by Iran. “The war has not ended. We are in a state of temporary pause,” the head of the IRGC’s intelligence organization, Brigadier General Majid Khademi, warned last week. Iranian Intelligence Minister Khatib made his plans clear, calling for an “aggressive internal strategy” against Israel so that Israeli security agencies are forced to “confront a strategy of internal aggression” by Iranian agents within Israeli territory.
Alongside Israel’s demonstrated ability to penetrate Iran, the country’s security agencies now believe they will have to step up their game to counter Iranian spying in Israel. The public media campaign is surely just the beginning of a broader counter-espionage effort. What they have seen in the past year, Israeli officials maintain, represents a far greater espionage threat than anything they have seen before.
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Once upon a time, Jerusalem was known to be the Amsterdam of the Middle East. As the through route of the cannabis trade from Lebanon to Egypt, the Holy Land became decked with hashish dens and coffee shops, frequented by cannabis aficionados of any creed or race. As such, the legacy of cannabis culture has deep roots in a region riddled with wounding that runs just as deep, demanding a medicine to treat it. Fast forward a few hundred years: Israeli chemist Dr. Raphael Mechoulam pioneers the discovery of THC—not to mention CBD as well—and within decades, Israel becomes a world leader in the cannabis industry.
As such, it checks out that some of the world’s highest caliber cannabis companies are based out of Israel. Among them is Trichome, something of a science lab-meets-art studio, specializing in the craft of indoor cannabis cultivation. Leading the way into a new era of sophistication and innovation, Trichome has boasted Israel’s largest indoor grow facility since its launch in 2020. The company merges meticulous horticultural practices with cutting-edge technology, trailblazing and redefining what it means to produce actual high-quality cannabis in an already competitive marketplace.
At the onset of the global pandemic, Trichome Founder Toni Levi returned to his homeland from Barcelona, where he worked in a cannabis social club. Blazing through Israeli bureaucratic red tape and inspired by a robust medical marijuana program, within a few short years of founding Trichome, Levi wasn’t only able to secure the highly sought-after Good Agricultural and Collecting Practices (GACP) certification from the Israeli government, but also a commercial license—and with that, Trichome bloomed from a concept into a commercial powerhouse that captures ten percent of Israeli cannabis, particularly in a premium category.
Part of what sets Trichome apart from its peers is its unwavering commitment to standardization based upon unique, innovative horticulture methodologies. Take, for instance, Trichome’s many varieties of cannabis, spanning nine flowering rooms, which are grown in rockwool rather than traditional soil in order to provide a sterile, consistent growing medium. This choice reflects the company’s ethos: precision, consistency and quality above all else.
“We’re not just growing cannabis; we’re crafting it,” Levi says. “Our goal was to create a product that stands out not just in Israel, but globally.”
Levi’s journey into the cannabis world wasn’t a straight path. Before Trichome, he spent years immersed in Barcelona’s cannabis culture, working at a social club and absorbing the nuances of cultivation and consumption in a city known for its progressive approach to the plant. But when the pandemic hit, Levi saw an opportunity to bring his expertise back home. “I came back to Israel because I saw the potential here,” he says. “The medical marijuana program was already strong, and I knew we could build something extraordinary with the right vision and execution.” That vision materialized in Trichome’s sprawling 22,000-square-foot facility, now a beacon of innovation in Qiryat Gat, in southern Israel.
The facility itself is a marvel—clean, modern and meticulously designed to optimize every aspect of the cannabis lifecycle. Trichome’s grow rooms may feel less like stepping into a traditional farm and more like entering a high-tech laboratory. LED lights hum overhead, casting a glow on rows of lush green plants rooted in rockwool cubes, a hydroponic medium that allows for precise control over nutrients and water.
“Rockwool gives us consistency,” says Steve Abboud, Trichome’s horticulturalist and a key figure in shaping the company’s cultivation practices. “Soil is great, but it’s unpredictable. With rockwool, we can standardize our process and ensure every plant gets exactly what it needs, every time.”
Abboud, who brings a wealth of experience to Trichome, is the mastermind behind the company’s ability to produce 17 distinct strains—each with its own unique cannabinoid and terpene profile. From classics such as OG Kush to proprietary hybrids, Trichome’s offerings cater to a discerning market of medical patients and, increasingly, recreational users as Israel’s cannabis laws evolve. “We’re not just chasing THC percentages,” Abboud says. “It’s about the whole plant—terpenes, flavonoids, the entourage effect. That’s where the real medicine lies.”
This focus on the “whole plant” is a cornerstone of Trichome’s philosophy, one that resonates deeply in a country where cannabis has long been viewed through a medicinal lens. Israel’s medical marijuana program, one of the oldest and most advanced in the world, serves as both inspiration and infrastructure for companies like Trichome. With more than 100,000 registered patients and a growing export market, the Israeli people’s demand for premium cannabis is higher than ever. Trichome has risen to meet that demand, producing roughly ten tons of cannabis annually while carving out a niche in the premium segment.
But it’s not just about scale. Levi and his team say they’re obsessed with quality, a commitment that shines through in their GACP certification, a rigorous standard that ensures every step of the cultivation process meets international benchmarks. “Getting GACP was a game-changer,” Levi says. “It’s not just a badge; it’s a promise to our customers that what they’re getting is clean, safe and consistent.”
Trichome is positioning itself as a global player, as Levi’s ambitions stretch far beyond Israel’s borders. “We’re already exporting to Europe, and we’re just getting started,” he says. “The world is waking up to what Israeli cannabis can offer.”
Indeed. With its combination of advanced technology, scientific rigor and a deep-rooted cannabis heritage, Trichome is well-poised to make waves on the international stage.
Yet, for all its forward-thinking, Trichome remains grounded in the realities of its homeland. Operating in Israel comes with unique challenges—bureaucracy, security concerns and a market that’s still finding its footing amid shifting regulations. Levi doesn’t shy away from these hurdles. “It’s not easy,” he says candidly. “But that’s what drives us. We’re building something lasting, something that can withstand the chaos.”
That resilience is mirrored in the plants themselves, thriving under Abboud’s watchful eye. “Cannabis is a survivor,” he says. “It’s been persecuted, banned and misunderstood, yet it keeps coming back stronger. Working with it feels like a privilege.” For Abboud, the work is as much art as it is science—a delicate balance of intuition and data. He spends hours tweaking light spectrums, nutrient mixes and humidity levels, all in pursuit of that perfect bud. “Every strain has its own personality,” he muses. “You’ve got to listen to what it’s telling you.”
As Trichome continues to grow, so too does its impact on Israel’s cannabis landscape. The company employs dozens of workers, from cultivators to lab technicians, and has become a hub for research and development. Levi envisions a future where Trichome isn’t just a producer but a pioneer, pushing the boundaries of what cannabis can be—medically, culturally and commercially. “We’re not here to follow trends,” he says. “We’re here to set them.”
In a region where cannabis has been both a balm and a battleground for centuries, Trichome stands as a testament to what’s possible when tradition meets innovation. From the hashish dens of old Jerusalem to the gleaming grow rooms of today, the plant’s journey in Israel has been long and winding.
With Trichome at the helm, that journey is entering a bold new chapter—one bud at a time.
The post Trichome Israel: Inside Job appeared first on Cannabis Now.
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