The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend.
In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150. For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023.
However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact.
In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours.
A newly introduced bill in Indiana would require public retirement programs to offer Bitcoin-related investment options and would also limit how much power local governments have to restrict the use of digital assets.
The proposal was filed on Thursday by State Representative Kyle Pierce, a Republican from Anderson. Known as House Bill 1042, the legislation was presented during a meeting of the House Financial Institutions Committee.
It focuses on giving public workers access to cryptocurrency investments while setting clear legal boundaries around digital asset use, custody, payments, and mining.
Under the bill, administrators of several state-run retirement and savings plans would be required to include cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds as standard investment choices.
It would also permit certain public pension funds to invest directly in crypto-linked ETFs and give the state treasurer authority to place funds from specific accounts into stablecoin-based ETFs.
Pierce said the bill is designed to give Indiana residents more financial flexibility as digital assets become a larger part of the broader economy.
He added that the legislation is intended to balance investment choice with regulatory guardrails while allowing the state to explore potential government use of blockchain technology through pilot programs.
The legislation goes beyond retirement investing and takes aim at local regulation. Cities and counties would be prohibited from passing rules that place “unreasonable” limits on digital assets if similar rules do not apply to traditional financial activity.
That protection would extend to crypto payments, private ownership of digital wallets, and mining operations.
The bill adds clear safeguards for self-custody. It states that private digital asset keys could only be demanded through a court order and only when no other legal method of access is available.
It would also prevent local governments from zoning out mining facilities from industrial zones and would protect properly zoned residential mining activity.
If enacted, Indiana would become the first state in the country to require publicly managed retirement programs to provide Bitcoin exposure as a standard option.
While some states permit limited crypto investment flexibility, none currently mandate it.
Other states have taken related but narrower steps. Oklahoma passed a law in 2024 protecting residents’ right to hold crypto in self-custody wallets and blocking special taxes on Bitcoin transactions.
In 2025, Kentucky followed by formally recognizing self-custody as a protected property right. Wyoming has also approved laws that allow public pension funds to invest in digital assets.
Elsewhere, Arizona introduced legislation that would allow Bitcoin ETFs in retirement accounts, while Florida outlined legal pathways for holding digital assets through ETFs in certain state funds.
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) April 18, 2025
Arizona’s push to integrate digital assets into state financial infrastructure is nearing a critical milestone. #Arizona #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/jNb7UnYvX1
Indiana’s proposal stands apart by making crypto ETF access a requirement rather than a choice.
Momentum around crypto-linked retirement exposure continues to build nationwide. In August, Michigan’s state retirement system tripled its Bitcoin ETF holdings to 300,000 shares, valued at about $11.4 million, according to regulatory filings.
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) August 6, 2025
The State of Michigan Retirement System has increased its exposure to Bitcoin, tripling its holdings in the @ARKInvest 21Shares Bitcoin ETF.#Michigan #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/lUxWycmp4A
The fund also holds roughly $13.6 million in Ethereum through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust. Wisconsin’s state investment board has also disclosed more than $387 million in Bitcoin ETF exposure.
States are also widening their use of digital assets outside of investing. In September, Ohio finalized plans to accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies for official state payments.
In October, California updated its Unclaimed Property Law to ensure dormant crypto is not automatically converted into cash when
transferred to state custody.
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) October 14, 2025
New York City has taken its own steps by setting up a municipal Office of Digital Assets and Blockchain.
The move followed an executive order from Mayor Eric Adams aimed at coordinating crypto policy and encouraging blockchain development.
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) October 15, 2025
Bitcoin NYC Mayor Adams established the “nation’s first-ever” municipal office for crypto and blockchain to position the city as the global crypto hub.#EricAdams #NYCMayor #CryptoOfficehttps://t.co/oVEBRTRp5y
At the federal level, broader regulatory efforts are also underway. Lawmakers are preparing new frameworks that could shape how states approach crypto policy, including updated guidance on 401(k) crypto exposure expected in 2026.
The post Indiana Bill Would Mandate Bitcoin in Pensions and Shield Self-Custody Rights appeared first on Cryptonews.
Strategy CEO Phong Le says the company’s newly built $1.44 billion cash reserve is designed to quiet investor anxiety over its ability to withstand a sharp downturn in Bitcoin.
Key Takeaways:
Speaking on CNBC’s Power Lunch, Le said the move followed weeks of speculation about whether the firm could continue meeting its dividend and debt commitments if market conditions worsened.
“We’re very much a part of the crypto ecosystem and Bitcoin ecosystem,” Le said. “Which is why we decided a couple of weeks ago to start raising capital and putting US dollars on our balance sheet to get rid of this FUD.”
The reserve, announced Monday and funded via a stock sale, is intended to secure at least 12 months of dividend payments, with plans to stretch that buffer to 24 months.
The company emphasized that the stock-funded buildup gives Strategy breathing room without having to sell any Bitcoin during a turbulent period for the market.
Concerns over Strategy’s dividend stability had grown louder in recent weeks as Bitcoin retreated from its highs.
Le acknowledged the market chatter but dismissed it as exaggerated. “We weren’t going to have an issue paying dividends, and we weren’t likely going to have to tap into selling our Bitcoin,” he said.
“But there was FUD that was put out there that we wouldn’t be able to meet our dividend obligations, which causes people to pile into a short Bitcoin bet.”
This afternoon, Phong Le, CEO of @Strategy, joined @CNBC @PowerLunch to discuss how $MSTR moves with bitcoin, how our USD reserve addresses recent FUD, the shifting Overton Window, key volatility drivers, and why bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains strong. pic.twitter.com/1t5hsfov0m
— Strategy (@Strategy) December 5, 2025
The CEO said raising $1.44 billion in just eight and a half days was intended as a direct response, showing the firm can still attract capital even in a downcycle.
“We did it to address the FUD, and to show people we’re still able to raise money when Bitcoin is under pressure.”
Last week, Le said Strategy would only consider selling Bitcoin if the stock dropped below net asset value and the company lost the ability to raise additional funds.
Strategy has also introduced a new “BTC Credit” dashboard, which it says shows the company holds enough assets to service dividends for more than 70 years.
As reported, Strategy has shifted from its long-standing “buy Bitcoin at all costs” approach to a dual-reserve treasury model that pairs long-term BTC holdings with a growing dollar buffer.
The move follows a dramatic slowdown in the firm’s accumulation pace, from 134,000 BTC per month at its 2024 peak to just 9,100 BTC in November, signaling preparation for a potentially prolonged bear market.
Despite the slowdown, the company remains one of the world’s largest Bitcoin holders, with roughly 650,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
The post Strategy CEO Says $1.44B Cash Reserve Aims to Calm Bitcoin-Slump Fears appeared first on Cryptonews.
Strive, a Nasdaq-listed firm and the 14th-largest public holder of Bitcoin, is pushing back against MSCI’s plan to remove companies with significant digital-asset exposure from its global indexes.
Key Takeaways:
In a letter addressed to MSCI chairman and CEO Henry Fernandez, the company warned that the proposal, which would exclude firms whose crypto holdings exceed 50% of total assets, risks shutting passive investors out of fast-growing corners of the market.
JPMorgan analysts recently cautioned that Strategy, a prominent Bitcoin treasury company included in the MSCI World Index, could face as much as $2.8 billion in losses if the exclusion moves forward.
Strategy’s chair, Michael Saylor, has confirmed that discussions with MSCI are ongoing as the company attempts to head off the decision.
Strive CEO Matt Cole argued that the proposal misunderstands the role large Bitcoin-focused firms play in emerging industries, particularly artificial intelligence.
He noted that miners such as MARA Holdings, Riot Platforms, and Hut 8, all potential exclusion targets, are rapidly expanding into AI infrastructure by retooling data centers for high-intensity compute workloads.
“Many analysts argue that the AI race is increasingly limited by access to power, not semiconductors,” Cole wrote, adding that miners are uniquely positioned to meet those needs.
— Matt Cole (@ColeMacro) December 5, 2025
Even as AI revenue increases, he said, companies will continue holding sizable Bitcoin reserves, meaning MSCI’s exclusion would permanently wall off a sector positioned at the intersection of digital assets and next-generation computing.
Cole also pointed to the rising demand for Bitcoin-linked financial products. Firms such as Strategy and Metaplanet function similarly to banks offering structured BTC notes, providing equity-based access to Bitcoin performance without requiring investors to hold the asset directly.
Excluding these treasury companies, he argued, would give traditional financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, an uneven playing field, as index-linked capital would become biased against firms whose business models center on Bitcoin exposure.
Strive further challenged the practicality of MSCI’s 50% threshold, noting that tying index eligibility to a volatile asset would cause companies to drift in and out of benchmarks, increasing tracking errors for funds that follow them.
Cole highlighted Trump Media & Technology Group as an example. Despite holding one of the largest public Bitcoin treasuries, it narrowly avoided MSCI’s preliminary exclusion list because its BTC exposure currently sits just under the cutoff.
Instead of a blanket rule, Strive proposed a parallel “ex-digital asset treasury” version of MSCI’s indexes.
This would allow asset managers who wish to avoid crypto-heavy companies to do so, while others could maintain exposure to the full investable universe.
MSCI has not yet indicated whether it will revise its proposal, but industry pressure is mounting as treasury-heavy firms await a final decision.
The post Strive Urges MSCI to Scrap Proposal Excluding Major BTC Holders appeared first on Cryptonews.
Reports have disclosed that some extremely wealthy family offices are adding XRP to their holdings, a move that market watchers say could influence demand for the token.
According to Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, a close contact overheard members of an affluent family tied to a major US food brand discussing sizable XRP positions while being driven from Disney World to their hotel in Orlando. Claver also said he has spoken with several large family offices that are making allocations into XRP.
Claver said many of these investors are not looking for quick gains but for ways to preserve capital over the long run. He said only 38% of global family offices are even considering crypto exposure today, and that some of the families he has spoken with are now exploring XRP as part of a hedge.
Claver emphasized a mindset common among long-term investors: “You should only have to get rich once,” he said, describing how some families build a steady core position surrounded by diversification.
Based on reports, the new XRP exchange-traded funds have pulled substantial supply from exchanges and OTC desks since launch. Over 400 million XRP have been taken up by ETFs, and inflows have topped $887 million with total assets above $906 million as of Wednesday.
Some sources count these moves within nine days of launch; others reference a 15-day window, which suggests reporting on timing has varied. Price action has stayed fairly steady near $2, but many traders are watching whether ETF demand eventually pressures that level.
On-Chain Activity And Holder ConcentrationRecord-Breaking XRP Velocity: A Surge in On-Chain Activity
“Such a surge typically signifies high liquidity and substantial involvement from traders or significant movements by whales.” – By @CryptoOnchain
Full analysis
https://t.co/AgXG0JK5Ig pic.twitter.com/H04OICWRIW
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 4, 2025
Blockchain data shows there are roughly 7 million XRP wallets, and about half of those hold fewer than one hundred XRP. That concentration of ownership is being pointed to by some as a factor that could magnify price moves if larger buyers step in.
On December 2, the XRP Ledger’s velocity metric jumped to 0.0324, a yearly high according to CryptoQuant, driven by large transfers and heightened on-ledger circulation. Reports noted that several whales moved XRP at levels not seen earlier this year, a sign some big players may be repositioning.
What Investors And Observers Are WatchingObservers say the key things to monitor are ETF flows, on-chain metrics like velocity, and whether large family offices publicly disclose allocations. Ripple’s existing ties with certain banks and projects are often cited as part of the story for institutional adoption, though other platforms also aim at broad use by banks.
For now, the picture mixes solid market activity — including ETF inflows and a jump in velocity — with ongoing chatter about billionaire buying. The market signals suggest growing institutional interest, while the family-office stories add another layer to how people are interpreting the trend.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
As stablecoins continue to gain worldwide momentum, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called for global cooperation to avert potential macro financial stability risks related to the rapidly growing sector and to turn the industry “into a force for good.”
On Thursday, the IMF released a 56-page report discussing the growing influence of stablecoins, their potential use cases in mainstream financial markets, and the risks associated with the sector’s varying oversight.
Amid the sector’s rapid growth, the organization highlighted that the two largest stablecoins, USDT and USDC, have tripled their market capitalization since 2023, reaching a combined $260 billion. Meanwhile, their trading volume has increased by around 90% to $23 trillion in 2024, with Asia surpassing North America in stablecoin activity volume.
The IMF noted two major potential benefits from stablecoins. First, they could enable faster and cheaper cross-border payments, especially for remittances, which can cost 20% of the amount being sent and face some delays.
However, “being a single source of information, blockchains can greatly simplify the processes linked with cross-border payments and reduce costs,” the Fund’s economists explained in a blog post.
Second, stablecoins could expand financial access, driving innovation by increasing competition with established payment service providers, therefore, making retail digital payments more accessible to underserved customers.
They could facilitate digital payments in areas where it is costly or not profitable for banks to serve customers. Many developing countries are already leapfrogging traditional banking with the expansion of mobile phones and different forms of digital and tokenized money.
Notably, competition with already established providers could lower costs and lead to enhanced product diversity, “leveraging synergies between digital payments and other digital services.”
Despite their potential benefits, stablecoins also carry significant risks, the IMF explained, including de-pegging and collapsing if the underlying assets lose value or if users lose confidence in the ability to cash out. Per the report, this could also trigger fire sales of the reserve assets and disrupt financial markets.
Stablecoins could also accelerate a “currency substitution” dynamic, where individuals and companies abandon their national currency in favor of a foreign one, like US dollars or euros, due to instability or high inflation.
The organization noted that the dynamic decreases a country’s central bank’s ability to control its monetary policy and serve as the lender of last resort, damaging the financial sovereignty of affected nations.
In addition, the potential to reduce cross-border frictions and make faster and cheaper transactions could be undermined by a lack of interoperability if various networks are unable to connect or are restricted by different regulations and other hurdles.
“Stablecoin regulation is in its infancy, so the ability to mitigate these risks remains uneven across countries,” the organization affirmed, noting that “the IMF and the Financial Stability Board have issued recommendations to safeguard against currency substitution, maintain capital flow controls, address fiscal risks, ensure clear legal treatment and robust regulation, implement financial integrity standards, and strengthen global cooperation.”
As reported by Bitcoinist, the FSB vowed in October to address the evolving threats from private finance and the growing use of stablecoins, promising to increase the global watchdog’s policy response and overhaul its surveillance system to make it more flexible and quicker.
Nonetheless, major jurisdictions have taken different stances in key areas, as the IMF detailed, which could result in the exploitation of gaps between jurisdictions and issuers to locate where oversight is weaker.
All this underscores the need for strong international cooperation to mitigate macrofinancial and spillover risks (…). Tokenization and stablecoins are here to stay. But their future adoption and the outlook for this technology are still mostly unknown.
The organization concluded that “improving the existing global financial infrastructure might be easier than replacing it. Achieving the best possible balance will require close cooperation among policymakers, regulators, and the private sector.”
Data shows distribution on the Bitcoin network has dropped off, with both the largest of whales and small retail hands taking to accumulation.
As explained by Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish in an X post, Bitcoin investors have been showing a lot less distribution at the recent price levels. The on-chain indicator of relevance here is the “Accumulation Trend Score,” which tells us about whether BTC holders are buying or selling.
The metric tracks investor behavior using not just the changes happening in their wallet balance, but also accounting for the size of their wallets. This means that larger entities have a higher influence on the score.
When the value of the Accumulation Trend Score is greater than 0.5, it means the investors are displaying a net trend of accumulation. On the other hand, it being under the threshold suggests the dominance of distribution.
Now, here is the chart shared by Beamish that shows how the Accumulation Trend Score has changed for the different Bitcoin investor segments over the last few years:
As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score has reflected a varied behavior for the different investor segments during the last couple of months, but very recently, a uniform picture has started to develop.
The smallest of investors in the market, those holding less than 1 BTC, started participating in aggressive accumulation around the time of BTC’s low in November and have since maintained the indicator nearly at a perfect value of 1. This suggests that retail investors have been buying the dip.
Meanwhile, the 100 to 1,000 BTC traders, popularly called the sharks, have been accumulating throughout the drawdown that has followed since the early October peak, indicating that these investors haven’t lost conviction despite the deep decline.
The story is a bit different for the whale cohorts, however. The 10,000+ BTC holders, corresponding to the largest of hands on the network, were in a phase of distribution between August and November, but they have finally started accumulating since the price low, although the Accumulation Trend Score isn’t as high as the retail investors in their case.
The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC whale group didn’t stop distributing even after the bottom, but very recently, their score has just breached the 0.5 mark. With this, a uniform behavior has begun to appear on the Bitcoin blockchain, with investors as a whole opting to expand their wallet balance.
It now remains to be seen how long this trend of accumulation will continue.
Bitcoin has faced a drop of more than 3% over the last 24 hours that has taken its price to $89,300.
The CEO's stance highlights confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value, suggesting resilience against short-term market volatility.
The post Strategy CEO says only a decades-long slump would force them to sell Bitcoin appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.
In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening.
They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity.
The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.
In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range.
This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets.
Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations.
Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.
The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets.
Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity.
There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends.
Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.
Extended Bitcoin UptrendHistorically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.
The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model.
The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.
Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Reports have disclosed that central banks around the globe have stepped up purchases of gold this year, with one month standing out. In October 2025, officials bought 53 tons of gold, a level that analysts say is the highest monthly demand seen this year. These moves reflect growing concern about inflation, weaker currencies and rising geopolitical risk.
According to data cited by financial outlets, 2025 is on track to be the fourth-highest year this century for institutional gold accumulation when measured net year-to-date through October. Analysts at Deutsche Bank put gold’s share of central-bank reserves at about 24%, a level not seen since the 1990s. Those figures help explain why governments that once moved away from bullion are returning to it now.
Some banks and market researchers are now asking whether Bitcoin could play a similar role for national treasuries. Based on reports from major financial firms, Deutsche Bank projects that Bitcoin could appear on central-bank balance sheets by 2030 as a complementary reserve asset.
Central banks are ramping up gold purchases:
Global central banks purchased +53 tonnes of gold in October, the most since November 2024.
This marks a +194% jump compared to July, and the 3rd-straight monthly acceleration.
In the first 10 months of the year, central banks have… pic.twitter.com/7pZWyEjjvf
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 4, 2025
Bitcoin’s market profile has changed: liquidity has risen, and price swings have been less extreme during recent months even though volatility remains higher than older reserve assets. Bitcoin also reached a record above $123,500 in recent trading, a price point that has captured wide attention.
A Few Banks Are Testing The IdeaA small number of central banks are now at least studying the idea more seriously. The Czech National Bank, for example, has discussed the possibility of a “test allocation” to learn how crypto might behave inside a reserve mix. Those conversations tend to focus on custody, accounting rules and how to report gains or losses, rather than immediate buying.
Risk is the main reason most central banks have not moved faster. Bitcoin still shows larger price swings than standard reserve assets, and global rules for how to hold and audit crypto are not uniform. Based on expert commentary, regulators and auditors would need clear guidance before many central banks felt comfortable adding crypto to official reserves.
What This Could Mean For MarketsIf even a handful of national banks were to allocate a small share of reserves to Bitcoin, demand could rise sharply and change how markets view the asset. A modest sovereign allocation would not replace gold or the US dollar, but it could give Bitcoin a stronger role as a hedge for countries facing currency weakness or rising inflation. At the same time, such a move would push more work into custody and compliance services, which would have to scale up quickly.
Gold buying by central banks is already significant — 53 tons in one month and about 24% of reserves in gold for some — and that Bitcoin is being discussed as a possible next step for some policymakers. The path from discussion to adoption is uncertain, and many technical and legal questions remain. Still, the debate has moved from theory to test runs and official reports, making this one of the more closely watched trends in global finance this year.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting a crucial support area after its price slid 5% from the recent highs and fell below the $90,000 barrier. Some analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency’s structure remains intact, but warned that it must bounce quickly or risk retesting the November lows.
On Friday, Bitcoin lost the recently reclaimed $90,000 level, falling to a key support area before stabilizing. The flagship crypto has been attempting to recover from the November market correction, which sent its price to a seven-month low of $80,600.
Since reaching its local lows two weeks ago, the cryptocurrency has traded within a macro re-accumulation range, between $82,000 and $93,500, attempting to break out of this zone on Wednesday, when it reached a multi-week high of $94,150.
However, as the first week of December approaches its end, BTC has lost the upper area of its local range again, falling below its monthly open and tapping the $88,000 support.
Amid the drop, Analyst Ted Pillows noted that BTC has been struggling to reclaim the $94,000 resistance, adding that price “wants to go lower here before another breakout attempt.” Therefore, he suggested that a bounce back from the $88,000-$89,000 support zone is likely.
Altcoin Sherpa affirmed that the ongoing retest would confirm whether the recent bounce was “just lower highs and price is going lower or if we actually have any juice to bounce to like 100k or something.”
The analyst outlined two potential outcomes. In the first scenario, the flagship crypto would retrace to the $87,000-$89,000 area and bounce above the $93,000-$94,000 resistance levels.
In the second scenario, Bitcoin would continue to move sideways below the local resistance before eventually sliding to the November lows and potentially lower levels. Per the analysis, the leading cryptocurrency must bottom quickly, or it will risk the second outcome.
Analyst Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin continues to face rejection from the range high resistance. However, he considers that investors should not worry as long as the pullback isn’t as big as the previous ones.
If “the rejection is shallower than the previous two, then this resistance will continue to weaken until eventually breached,” he explained, adding that “as long as this weakening continues, BTC should be able to finally breach this resistance over time & try to challenge the multi-week Downtrend above.”
Earlier this week, the analyst affirmed that BTC’s consolidation structure will remain intact as long as Bitcoin closes the week above the range lows. He also noted that its Macro Downtrend, which “has been dictating resistance throughout this phase of the cycle,” remains the dominant structural barrier and the level to break.
As the price stabilized between the $88,500-$89,350 area, the analyst added that today’s retracement “continues to be a shallower pullback than the previous two,” which keeps the range “‘retrace shallowing’ tendency” intact.
He noted that Bitcoin could technically drop into the ascending two-week support trendline, or tap the $86,000 level and still perform a shallower correction than the recent 10% drop.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,400, a 2.9% decline in the daily timeframe.
Despite the Bitcoin price recovery above the crucial $90,000 threshold—a level that has historically served as a supportive floor for the cryptocurrency—the market is exhibiting signs that a further correction may be imminent.
Market expert Rekt Fencer recently shared insights on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, suggesting that the Bitcoin price might be forming what he calls a “massive bull trap.”
This term refers to a deceptive bullish signal in which the price briefly surpasses a resistance level, in this case, the $90,000 mark, only to reverse into a decline. Such movements can entrap investors who bought in during the peak, leading to significant losses.
Fencer pointed out a troubling pattern reminiscent of early 2022 when Bitcoin reclaimed its 50-week moving average (MA)—currently positioned above $102,300—before experiencing a severe decline of roughly 60%, plummeting below $20,000 by June of that year.
He indicated that the recent price recovery following major drops to $84,000 should not be interpreted as a signal of near-term success, especially since the Bitcoin price is currently trading under the 50-week MA.
If historical trends repeat, this could mean that Bitcoin might see a significant drop, potentially reaching around $36,200, which could potentially represent the low point of the bearish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, there are analysts who retain a bullish outlook.
Market researcher and analyst Miles Deutscher expressed a confident sentiment, stating he believes there is a 91.5% likelihood that the Bitcoin price has hit its bottom, based on his analysis of key developments.
He noted that recent weeks have been dominated by negative news stories, including concerns surrounding Tether (USDT) and the implications of China’s actions on crypto, which he asserts often mark local price bottoms.
Moreover, Deutscher pointed out a shift in market flows from predominantly bearish to bullish. He explained that the trading environment has recently seen a resurgence in buying momentum, with large investors, or “OG whales,” ceasing their selling. This change has been reflected in the order books, indicating a possible stabilization in market sentiment.
Additionally, the liquidity landscape appears to be shifting, with market conditions tightening in recent months. The potential appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair known for dovish policies, coupled with the official end of quantitative tightening (QT), could further influence market dynamics in favor of buyers.
Deutscher concluded by emphasizing that given the extreme levels of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) in the market, combined with improvements in trading flows, he believes that the odds favor the notion that the Bitcoin price has indeed reached its bottom.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Fundstrat’s Tom Lee told attendees at Binance Blockchain Week that he believes the worst leg of the recent crypto slump is likely over and that markets may be ready for a gradual recovery. He pointed to weakening selling pressure and growing underlying activity as reasons for cautious optimism.
According to Lee, mood on the street turned darker after October, with many investors showing fatigue after steady losses. He said the current selling looks closer to exhaustion than to the start of another major decline. Trading desks have cut back. Volume has thinned. Sentiment is low. Lee argued that often, when pessimism peaks, conditions for a reversal begin to form.
Based on reports, Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its all-time high in the recent retreat. That size of drop has happened in prior cycles, including 2017 and 2021, and has been followed by rallies that reached new records.
“Crypto prices likely bottomed. The best years of growth are still ahead: there is 200x adoption to come.” – Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine pic.twitter.com/fPWbWdaosO
— Binance (@binance) December 4, 2025
Lee pointed to long-term returns for bitcoin and ether compared with some traditional assets over the last decade, saying crypto’s gains were larger. He used that history to support the idea that patient holders have been rewarded after past stress.
Tokenization Could Be A Major Story In 2026Lee also presented tokenization as a key theme for the future. He said large institutions are preparing to move more financial products on-chain and that, if real estate joins the shift, close to a quadrillion dollars in assets could eventually be tokenized.
Stablecoins were cited as an early example of why tokenized instruments can attract demand. He suggested that a broader institutional push could add steady interest to the market over time.
Reports have disclosed that BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF has become one of the firm’s top fee-earning products, a fact Lee used to show growing involvement from legacy finance. That kind of institutional participation, he argued, points to deeper engagement from big players who were previously on the sidelines.
Adoption Gap Suggests Large UpsideAccording to Lee, only 4.4 million bitcoin wallets hold more than $10,000 in BTC, while nearly 900 million people globally have more than $10,000 in retirement savings.
He said that gap shows how early the market still is and argued that if just a fraction of those savers put money into bitcoin, adoption could expand by as much as 200 times. The figure is speculative, he acknowledged, but he used it to show the potential scale for future demand.
What This Means For Investors NowLee questioned whether the old four-year cycle should be used as a strict guide. He suggested recent moves were driven more by de-leveraging and structural shifts than by the halving rhythm that shaped earlier cycles.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
On 3rd December, official filings and press releases announced Twenty One Capital’s upcoming debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), positioning the company as one of the largest Bitcoin treasury firms ever to enter public markets. The listing brings a dedicated Bitcoin balance sheet into Wall Street’s core ecosystem, signaling a structural shift in how institutional investors can gain long-term BTC exposure.
Twenty One Capital’s NYSE entry is anchored by its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners (CEP), the SPAC serving as the public-market vehicle for the transaction. CEP shareholders have already approved the merger, and the deal is expected to close around December 8. Once completed, the combined entity will operate as Twenty One Capital, Inc. and begin trading on December 9 under the ticker XXI.
The original announcement, released through official press channels and SEC-related filings, emphasized CEP’s central role in enabling the listing and establishing the company’s public-market structure. CEO Jack Mallers also highlighted the milestone on X, noting the company’s readiness for its debut.
According to this press announcement, Twenty One Capital will debut with an estimated 43,500 BTC, a reserve valued near $4 billion at recent market levels. This immediately places it among the top corporate Bitcoin treasuries globally. Unlike companies that hold Bitcoin as a secondary reserve, Twenty One is specifically engineered around a Bitcoin-native model. The firm intends to report “Bitcoin-per-share,” providing investors a transparent look at how much BTC each equity unit represents. It also pledges full, on-chain proof-of-reserves, positioning itself as a high-transparency asset custodian at launch.
This model effectively transforms Twenty One into a regulated balance-sheet wrapper for Bitcoin. It lowers operational friction for institutional allocators who want direct BTC exposure without the complexities of crypto custody, self-storage, or exchange-based acquisition. By listing on the NYSE rather than relying on ETFs or derivatives, Twenty One creates a regulated public equity vehicle that holds, safeguards, and transparently tracks Bitcoin for institutional and retail investors alike.
The market impact of Twenty One’s listing reflects the accelerating integration of Bitcoin into mainstream financial architecture. The company’s backers—including Tether-linked entities, Bitfinex-aligned interests, SoftBank-connected capital, and Cantor’s public-markets network—provide a cross-sector foundation aimed at bridging crypto-native philosophies with institutional liquidity channels.
Under this structure, Twenty One aims to become a long-term institutional treasury vessel—a regulated balance sheet that accumulates BTC and gives investors an equity-linked way to participate in Bitcoin’s upside without engaging directly with crypto custody or trading infrastructure.
As the NYSE debut approaches, Twenty One Capital embodies a pivot point where BTC’s role in capital markets shifts from speculative asset to institutional treasury instrument. If XXI attracts sustained flow, it could set a new blueprint for how corporate entities engage with Bitcoin—anchoring Wall Street’s next phase of digital-asset adoption.
VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, has told clients it plans to let them buy and sell real cryptocurrencies through its brokerage service, with a target rollout in 2026 pending regulator approval.
According to the bank, the move would go beyond the derivative products that most Russian banks have offered so far. It is a clear shift toward opening traditional finance to digital assets, at least for now among wealthy clients.
Reports have disclosed that VTB intends to begin with high-net-worth customers only. The bank set thresholds for its initial offering: clients with assets above $1.3 million or annual income over $649,000 would be eligible at first.
Andrey Yatskov, who heads VTB’s brokerage arm, said there is “sharp demand” from clients for access to actual crypto, not just paper products tied to token prices. The bank has picked 2026 as the planned start year, but it made that clear the launch depends on regulators signing off.
Based on reports, the service would allow ownership of the underlying coins — not merely derivative contracts or token-linked notes. That is a significant distinction in Russia, where until recently banks were limited to offering exposure through derivative instruments.
Allowing customers to hold coins directly would require legal and compliance work, from custody arrangements to anti-money-laundering controls. Those steps are on the critical path before any retail expansion can happen.
Potential Market SignalsVTB has also given investors a sense of how it views crypto as an asset class. The bank recommended a 7% allocation to crypto for some investor profiles, and its internal forecasts have mentioned medium-term Bitcoin price targets in the $200,000–$250,000 range under favorable conditions.
If VTB moves forward, it could be the first major Russian bank to operate in this way — a signal that some parts of the financial sector see token ownership as something to be offered through mainstream channels.
Regulatory Hurdles And GeopoliticsThe plan is not risk free. Russian regulation of crypto is still evolving, and any permit to offer direct trading will require approval from the relevant authorities. Sanctions and other geopolitical pressures could alter timelines or force changes to how the service is structured. Compliance teams will need to reconcile domestic rules with international restrictions that affect many big banks operating in or dealing with Russia.
For now, the rollout remains conditional. VTB’s timeline, client criteria, and product design all hinge on legal clarifications and regulator consent. Market participants and clients will likely follow announcements from the Bank of Russia and other agencies to judge how soon broader access might come.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
The Binance Blockchain Week event in Dubai became the center of a high-stakes showdown between traditional and digital innovation, with Bitcoin and gold going head-to-head. Investors, tech enthusiasts, and financial experts watched closely as Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expertly debated renowned Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, making a compelling argument for why Bitcoin is better than gold.
During the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai, Schiff and CZ faced off in a high-profile debate over the value of Bitcoin versus Gold. Schiff defended gold as a safe, stable, and tangible asset while the Binance founder made a compelling case for Bitcoin’s adoption, utility, value, and global reach.
Throughout the debate, which lasted over an hour, CZ consistently demonstrated the practical advantages of Bitcoin, leaving Schiff’s gold argument largely on the defensive. The Binance founder emphasized Bitcoin’s transparent and predictable supply and its role in the modern financial systems. He pointed to hundreds of millions of users who rely on Bitcoin for payments, savings, and transfers.
Schiff argued that Bitcoin lacks inherent value and is mainly driven by hype and faith that its price will rise. He stated that gold remains tangible, centuries old, scarce, and valuable in industry, making it superior to BTC. He further asserted that “nobody needs” Bitcoin and that the cryptocurrency is “backed by nothing.”
Practical demonstrations played a key role in the debate between Schiff and CZ. The Binance founder explained how Bitcoin and crypto payments already improve financial efficiency, especially in emerging markets. Schiff questioned whether these transactions truly count as money, since merchants ultimately receive traditional currency. CZ’s response highlighted the importance of adoption and network effects, noting that people who use BTC directly for payments give it real-world significance.
The debate also considered the preferences of younger generations. CZ asked Schiff whether millennials and Gen Z favoured Bitcoin or gold. The Bitcoin critic responded sharply, suggesting that they would choose gold. He pointed out that, with many young investors losing money on BTC, gold offers a safer, more appealing alternative. The Binance founder countered that younger people understand digital value more intuitively and prefer mobile, borderless, and censorship-resistant assets.
The debate between CZ and Schiff also highlighted the changing definition of money. Bitcoin functions as a decentralized network that enables instant settlement and transparent verification. Its adoption has also helped evolve the financial economy, facilitating faster and more seamless cross-border payments. Schiff argued that gold’s scarcity and industrial demand preserve its value and make it a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty.
Tokenization also became a point of agreement during the discussion, with Schiff emphasizing that gold can be digitized and tokenized for easier ownership and distribution without moving the physical metal. CZ contended that Bitcoin offers similar advantages while also enabling global financial inclusion. They also discussed the supply of both assets, with the Binance founder noting that Bitcoin has a visible supply, while gold doesn’t.
They also talked about the performance of both assets over the years. Schiff argued that gold had outperformed BTC over the past four years. CZ contended that Bitcoin has far outpaced gold over the last 8 years, and since its launch in 2009, it has skyrocketed from a few cents to an ATH above $126,000. He concluded his debate, predicting that Bitcoin’s growth will outpace gold over time.
The crypto market is bleeding as leveraged liquidations intensify, sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.
Analysts are warning that if bulls fail to defend the critical $84,000 support level, Bitcoin’s price prediction could tilt into a full-blown bear market.
Over the last four hours, more than $200 million in leveraged positions have been liquidated across the crypto market.
Bitcoin is down over 3%, while Ethereum has plunged over 4%. The bloodbath has wiped out over $100 billion in total market capitalization today.
— The market periodical (@tmp_periodical) December 5, 2025
BREAKING:
Crypto liquidations have resumed, sending Bitcoin back below $90,000.
Over the last 4 hours, more than $200 million in leveraged positions have been wiped out.
Volatility is back.pic.twitter.com/YCmzcQdkab
The carnage follows today’s massive options expiry event, which traders had been monitoring closely.
A staggering $3.357 billion worth of BTC options with a max pain point at $91,000 expired today, alongside $668 million worth of ETH options with a max pain at $3,050.
Prominent trader TraderThanos is leaning heavily bearish as the 5-day candle closes below $93,000.
“Maybe we get another retest of 93k-93.2k. That would align more perfectly with my current bias. The next leg down takes us to 76k,” he warned.
Thanos highlighted a critical technical breakdown: “This is the first time price is trading under those Moving Averages since June/July of 2023,” referring to the 100 EMA and 100 MA on the 5-day timeframe.
If price stays beneath these moving averages, he expects a drop to the $72,000-$76,000 range.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, the odds of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 by year-end have now surpassed 40% on Polymarket.
Bitcoin is trading below all major moving averages on the 4-hour chart, keeping the broader structure tilted bearish.
The 200-MA near $95,000 remains the key resistance that must be reclaimed to restore bullish momentum, but repeated rejections show sellers aggressively defending that zone.
Immediate support sits around $84,000, which stabilized the price during the last flush.
However, if Bitcoin fails to bounce strongly from this level, the broader corrective structure could extend toward deeper support near $76,000, where a more meaningful reversal becomes likely.
Bitcoin’s direction remains biased lower as long as it stays capped under $95,000.
A reclaim of that level would signal trend restoration, but until then, indicators point toward continued weakness.
As Bitcoin struggles, investors are turning to Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER), a project working on bringing speed and affordability to Bitcoin’s blockchain for decentralized applications.
Built on Solana-based architecture, Bitcoin Hyper accelerates transaction speeds while slashing network fees.
This enables developers to deploy DeFi platforms, meme coins, and payment solutions that Bitcoin holders can access without abandoning the original blockchain.
The presale has raised over $29 million, with tokens priced at $0.013375 and strong institutional interest driving momentum.
Early investors can benefit from presale pricing at the current $0.013385 price, with some analyses suggesting potential 10-15X ROI by 2026.
To buy $HYPER at its discounted presale price, head to the official Bitcoin Hyper website and link your wallet, such as Best Wallet.
Then connect a wallet (Best Wallet, MetaMask, or Coinbase Wallet) and select payment (ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, or USDC).You can also use a bank card for instant access.
Visit the Official Bitcoin Hyper Website HereThe post Bitcoin Price Prediction: $200M in Leveraged Liquidations Pushes BTC Under $90K — Can Bitcoin Avoid a Breakdown Below $84K? appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto analyst Miles Deutscher has issued one of the most forceful bottom calls of this cycle, assigning a 91.5% probability that Bitcoin’s low is already in. In a X thread on December 4, he wrote: “F*ck it. I’m putting my neck on the line here. I’m 91.5% certain that the BTC bottom is in. And if it is, A LOT of people are about to be caught offside.”
Deutscher bases his conviction on four “pillars”: market reaction to news, the historical behaviour of FUD events, a shift in flows, and an improving global liquidity backdrop. Each pillar is scored in an internal model that culminates in a 91.5/100 bullish reading.
He starts with price behaviour versus headlines. Over recent days, he notes, the market has digested an “influx of bad news” – including renewed Tether FUD, another round of “China banning crypto,” MicroStrategy scrutiny and concerns around a Bank of Japan–driven yen carry trade unwind.
“Despite all this bad news, price rallied,” he writes, calling this “the first time since the major selloff began” that Bitcoin has responded positively to a destructive news cycle. He underscores an old trading adage: “The reaction to news is more important than the news itself. This tells you everything you need to know.”
The second pillar is a systematic look at whether such FUD clusters tend to coincide with local lows. Deutscher says he backtested “every single time Tether, China, BOJ, and Microstrategy FUD entered the market” in a similar way. His conclusion is stark: “Every single time, these FUD events marked a local bottom. Tether FUD = bottom.
China ‘banning’ crypto = bottom. Bank of Japan/carry trade concerns = bottom. Microstrategy FUD = bottom.” On this basis, his AI model assigns the maximum score of 28/28 to this pillar. He cautions that “in isolation, this factor doesn’t matter much,” but argues that, combined with the first pillar, it “starts to paint a convincing bull case.”
The third pillar is flows, which he calls “the most critical factor (net buy/sell pressure).” For the past weeks, flows were “aggressively negative” with OG whales selling and ETFs dumping. Recently, he argues, this picture has changed. ETF inflows are “starting to stabilise & uptick,” treasury-company holdings remain stable, and “OG whales have stopped relentlessly dumping (this is clear on the orderbooks).” This earns a 22.5/25 score in his model. He adds one key caveat: as long as DATs exist, “there are material risks.”
The fourth pillar is the liquidity and macro environment. Deutscher notes that market liquidity had been tightening for months, but now “things are shifting back toward increased market liquidity,” with global financial conditions “reloosened to near highs.” He highlights “macro tailwinds” and adds that a new, potentially more dovish Fed chair is coming and “QT has now officially ended.” This set of factors receives a 9/10 score in his framework.
Aggregating all four pillars leads to the headline figure: “With all four market pillars taken into account, we arrive at a final score of 91.5/100.”
Deutscher, however, explicitly lists caveats. He points out that US markets “have been on a massive run” and may need to cool off, that DATs “are still seeing some short-term pressure,” and that ETF flows “can flip negative at any time.” His conclusion is probabilistic rather than absolute: “Markets are a game of probabilities, and I think the odds are in favour of the bottom being in – given the extreme FUD we’ve had and the market’s reaction to it.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,035.
Bitcoin is now trading near $89,000 after slipping under $90,000 again, and most large-cap tokens are lower on the day, which keeps the Crypto Fear & Greed Index around 25 and indicates that anxiety has eased only slightly from last week while conviction remains thin and easily shaken by routine headlines.
The seasonal “Santa Claus rally” enters the conversation each December because equity desks track a tendency for late-month strength, yet for digital assets, the calendar effect only matters when liquidity and positioning are prepared to carry bids across sessions rather than fade into the close, which is not the profile this market has shown in recent days.
Bitcoin Price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
If a holiday lift is going to matter for crypto, order-book depth on the largest spot pairs needs to rebuild into and after the United States session so that routine headline flurries do not push price through thin ladders, and spreads need to remain tight during moderate selling so execution costs do not sap appetite for adding risk late in the day.
Derivatives should confirm the shift with funding that moderates without relying on squeeze-driven bursts and with a futures basis that settles toward neutral rather than flipping repeatedly, because those signs show that leverage is resetting in a controlled way.
Flows then complete the picture when creations for spot Bitcoin products appear in a steady run instead of one-off prints and when net stablecoin issuance turns higher for more than a session or two, since those patterns show new dollars entering rather than the same capital recycling through a narrower set of venues.
Strategy Wrapped pic.twitter.com/wcIucX0RpT
— Strategy (@Strategy) December 5, 2025
Macro drivers still shape the path into year-end because a firm dollar and higher yields have repeatedly leaned on risk assets, meaning that softer rate expectations would remove a headwind, while any renewed hawkish tone would keep bids cautious and push market makers to carry less inventory through event windows.
Rotation beyond Bitcoin usually follows improved depth in the leader rather than leading it, so a healthier backdrop would show advances broadening from Bitcoin into larger caps only after order books thicken and funding calms.
For desks that watch sentiment, the index near 25 says fear dominates, yet not at the extreme levels seen earlier, which can allow short-lived rebounds on quiet days.
But a durable turn requires evidence that arrives together rather than piecemeal, including deeper books through the U.S. close, steadier funding and basis across multiple sessions, a visible run of ETF creations, and a rise in net stablecoin supply that survives beyond a single headline cycle.
If those pieces align, the case for a December lift improves, and the seasonal story becomes a tailwind rather than a distraction, while in their absence, the market remains one adverse policy remark or liquidity wobble away from another test of support.
The post Why This Santa Claus Rally Setup Leaves Bitcoin One Shock Away From Support Retest appeared first on Cryptonews.
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