Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood says Bitcoin’s long-running four-year pattern may be losing its grip as big financial players buy and hold more of the supply, a shift that could tame price swings and change how investors plan ahead.

Institutional Buying Is Changing Markets

According to Wood, large firms and spot ETFs are slowly locking up coins that used to flow in and out of retail hands. The most recent halving, on April 20, 2024, cut the miner reward to 3.125 BTC.

On a daily basis, that reduction translated to about a 450 Bitcoin drop in supply each day, a figure some analysts call small compared with the trillions attributed to the market’s value and the billions moving into ETFs.

Ark has been active too, buying shares in Coinbase, Circle and its own Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), a signal that institutional demand is more than a rumor.

Cycle Rules Are Being Questioned

Based on reports from banks and crypto firms, the familiar cycle—rises tied to halvings followed by deep crashes of 75–90%—is under debate.

Standard Chartered cut its 2025 price forecast from $200,000 to $100,000, arguing ETF inflows weaken the halving’s price punch.

Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju have said institutional flows have changed or even erased the classic rhythm.

Markets hit a peak near $122,000 in July, and some analysts now say future drawdowns may be shallower, in the 25% to 40% range rather than the extreme collapses seen earlier.

Market Structure Still Shows Old Patterns

Not all evidence points to a finished cycle. Reports published by on-chain analytics firms such as Glassnode show behaviors among long-term holders that look like past up-and-down swings.

Demand from late-cycle buyers has softened in ways that mirror prior years, according to that research. It is being argued that halvings remain meaningful interruptions inside a longer trend, not irrelevant events.

Macro observers add that broader economic forces—rates, fiat liquidity, and institutional appetite—are increasingly important in the price story.

Investors should expect longer moves more often, with rallies stretching over more months and volatility generally lower, analysts say.

Wood suggested volatility is falling and that markets may already have hit a low a couple of weeks earlier.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto markets lurched lower after the Federal Reserve delivered exactly what everyone said they wanted: the third straight 25bps cut to close out 2025. Santiment’s latest deep dive makes a simple, slightly uncomfortable point: retail treated it as a green light, whales treated it as exit liquidity.

Bitcoin shortly rallied to $94,044, Ether surged to $3,433, XRP hit $2.10 and Solana managed to reach $142, but the momentum was short-lived. The BTC price fell by more than 5% at one point, ETH even fell by more than 8.5%.

What Caused The Crypto Market Plunge?

On 11 December, the FOMC confirmed another quarter-point reduction, completing what Santiment calls the “trifecta of cuts at the end of 2025.” Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing, more risk-taking, and—on paper—a friendlier backdrop for crypto. The Fed still describes an economy growing at a “moderate” pace with inflation above target, and in both the October and December meetings it cut because “the balance of risks (like slowing job growth) supported easing policy.”

The key shift is liquidity. On 29 October, the Fed decided to slow the reduction of its securities holdings from 1 December, easing the pace of balance-sheet runoff. By 10 December, it went further, saying bank reserves had fallen “too much” and announcing renewed purchases of short-term Treasury bills to keep reserves “ample.” That is a move from shrinking the balance sheet to quietly adding money back into the system. As Santiment notes, the Fed is still data-dependent but clearly more willing to lean dovish to protect financial conditions.

Markets, however, front-ran the story. Prediction platform Polymarket showed an “overwhelming amount of optimism” in the hours before Jerome Powell spoke. At the same time, on-chain data flagged abnormal activity: @DeFiTracer spotted a whale selling roughly 100 million dollars’ worth of Bitcoin within an hour, triggering “a healthy mix of sensationalized panic.” The expected outcome—another cut—arrived, but positioning around it was anything but balanced.

Bitcoin’s price reaction looked bullish at first. BTC spiked to about $94,044 after the announcement. Yet Santiment’s social data shows that the positive-versus-negative commentary ratio for Bitcoin had already peaked well before Powell’s remarks. The crowd’s emotional high came in anticipation; when the actual rally hit, traders were “quite modestly reactive” despite the move to 94K. Sentiment was spent.

Ethereum was worse. Over the same 24-hour window, ETH surged to around $3,433, and the positive comment ratio “was a LOT more interesting.” Santiment describes “a lot of FOMO after a mini surge immediately after Powell spoke,” with many traders who bought the breakout “eventually [getting] burned when ETH fell back down to 3,170.” It is the textbook “buy the rumor, sell the news” pattern: bullish macro headline, short-term bearish price action, retail buying the spike while larger holders “gladly” offload into the mini-rally.

Structurally, though, the report is not outright bearish. Year-to-date, Santiment notes, Bitcoin is down about 3.6%, versus a 17.6% gain for the S&P 500 and a striking 61.1% for gold. “It’s quite the dramatic difference,” the team writes, arguing that “a regression to the mean for BTC would be justified.”

With three cuts now locked in and reserves being topped up via T-bill purchases, the “catch-up” case for crypto versus equities and metals “becomes even stronger.” Historically, crypto “has reacted later than equities or commodities when macro trends shift.”

On-chain, so-called smart money appears to be acting as if that delayed reaction is coming. Wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC have added 42,565 Bitcoin since 30 November. What is “still [remaining],” Santiment says, is “a notable dump from retail, which would be indicative of the perfect recipe for a major bull run.” For now, they expect smaller traders to “run on fumes from this positive news of rates getting cut, for at least a couple of days.”

The bottom line of the report is deliberately sober. The final FOMC decision of 2025 “reinforces a narrative of gradual easing, improving liquidity, and a cautiously supportive environment for risk assets.”

After a rough year, “ending the year with three consecutive rate cuts from the Fed is a strong sign.” If inflation drifts toward target and economic data stays stable, Santiment argues, 2026 could finally give digital assets “the breathing room they’ve been waiting for.” Just do not confuse that with an invitation to chase the first post-Fed spike—because, as this week just reminded everyone, that is still where crypto tourists go to get burned.

At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.04 trillion.

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign new capital inflows lack momentum.

Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth Has Been Heading Down Recently

As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower recently. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

This is unlike the usual market cap, which simply calculates the total valuation of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation with the current spot price, considering the latest value of the cryptocurrency to be the one value for all coins.

In short, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that the Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the asset’s supply. On the other hand, the market cap is the value that the investors are carrying in the present.

The Realized Cap itself isn’t the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, measuring the 365-day changes occurring in the Realized Cap.

Changes in the indicator naturally reflect the amount of capital exiting or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the asset’s netflow.

Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has witnessed both its 7-day and 59-day MAs reverse down recently, with the former line crossing under the latter.

The trend indicates that growth in the Realized Cap has been slowing down during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin is lacking momentum from new cost basis inflows,” noted the analyst.

With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator is now flagging the current market to be in a “bear phase.” The last time this signal maintained for an extended duration was alongside BTC’s decline over the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long momentum from new capital inflows will stay weak for Bitcoin this time around.

In some other news, the Bitcoin short-term holders are still under a notable amount of stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has pointed out in an X post.

Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who got into the market during the past 155 days. Despite the rebound BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still in a loss of 10%.

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $92,400, down 1.5% over the last 24 hours.

Dogecoin started a fresh decline below the $0.1450 zone against the US Dollar. DOGE is now consolidating losses and might face hurdles near $0.1420.

• DOGE price started a fresh decline below the $0.1450 level.
• The price is trading below the $0.140 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average.
• There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.1450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The price could extend losses if it stays below $0.1420 and $0.1450.

Dogecoin Price Dips Further

Dogecoin price started a fresh decline after it closed below $0.150, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.1450 and $0.1420 support levels.

More importantly, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support at $0.1450 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. The price even traded below $0.140. A low was formed near $0.1372, and the price is now showing bearish signs below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1531 swing high to the $0.1372 low.

Dogecoin price is now trading below the $0.140 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. If there is a recovery wave, immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.1410 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.1450 level and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $0.1531 swing high to the $0.1372 low.

The next major resistance is near the $0.1495 level. A close above the $0.1495 resistance might send the price toward the $0.1530 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $0.1550 level. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.1620.

More Losses In DOGE?

If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.1450 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.1375 level. The next major support is near the $0.1350 level.

The main support sits at $0.1330. If there is a downside break below the $0.1320 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.1250 level or even $0.1240 in the near term.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $0.1350 and $0.1250.

Major Resistance Levels – $0.1420 and $0.1450.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has expressed strong opposition to a proposal by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to exclude digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from its indexes. 

Calls For Fair Treatment Of Digital Asset Companies

In a recent letter signed by Michael Saylor and the firm’s CEO Phong Le, Strategy highlighted its support for MSCI’s efforts to establish consistent eligibility criteria across its indices. 

However, the company criticized the proposed threshold for excluding firms with more than 50% digital assets on their balance sheets, calling it “misguided.” The company argued that this measure could have negative implications not only for Strategy’s operations but also for the broader cryptocurrency market.

Strategy emphasized that, unlike traditional investment funds, it maintains the operational agility to adapt its value-creation strategies in tune with the evolving technology underlying Bitcoin. 

The firm asserts that this flexibility is a critical asset for investors and distinguishes Strategy and other DATs from traditional digital asset investment vehicles. 

The firm likened its investment approach in a singular asset class to that of real estate investment trusts (REITs) or oil companies, stating that MSCI categorizes those entities correctly without labeling them as investment funds. Therefore, it argued, DATs should be afforded similar treatment.

‘Discriminatory And Arbitrary’

The letter criticized the proposed 50% digital asset threshold as “discriminatory and arbitrary,” suggesting that it imposes uniquely unfavorable conditions on digital asset companies while allowing other industries—like oil, timber, and real estate—to maintain concentrated asset holdings without similar scrutiny. 

Strategy raised concerns that enforcing this rule would necessitate MSCI to create new methods for measuring balance sheet concentration, complicating the indexing process unnecessarily due to varying accounting principles across asset classes and jurisdictions.

Additionally, Strategy elaborated on how the exclusion of DATs could substantially inhibit innovation within the digital asset industry, which the current administration strongly promotes as part of its economic strategy. 

The company said that digital assets like Bitcoin have the potential to become foundational elements of global financial systems, but the proposed measures could limit access to these transformative technologies for pension plans and 401(k)s, ultimately redirecting billions away from the sector.

Strategy cautioned that a hasty exclusion of DATs could be based on misconceptions about their business models, asserting that it reflects a misunderstanding of the nature of these entities. 

The firm advocated for a more measured approach similar to MSCI’s past handling of the “Communication Services” sector, which underwent extensive consultation and a thorough review before reorganizing traditional telecom, media, and internet companies.

Strategy Urges MSCI To Reconsider

If implemented, Strategy warns that MSCI’s proposal could lead to the delisting of numerous companies heavily involved in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts estimate that Strategy alone might face liquidations of up to $2.8 billion as a direct consequence of this exclusion.

Such a move is also expected to potentially distort market dynamics by incentivizing Bitcoin miners to sell their assets immediately instead of holding them as part of their business strategy.

In light of these concerns, Strategy urged MSCI to withdraw the proposal for excluding companies with over 50% digital asset holdings from its Global Investable Market Indexes. 

The firm asserted that the proposal is rooted in a flawed understanding of DATs and would impose conditions unaligned with national interests, particularly those advocating for the responsible growth of the digital asset space.

As of this writing, the company’s stock, trading under the ticker symbol MSTR, is trading at $185. There has been almost no difference since Tuesday’s trading session amid consolidating crypto prices. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

XRP price started a fresh decline below $2.10. The price is now struggling and faces resistance near the $2.050 pivot level.

• XRP price started a fresh decline below the $2.040 zone.
• The price is now trading below $2.020 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move down if it settles below $2.00.

XRP Price Dips Again

XRP price attempted a recovery wave above $2.120 but failed to continue higher, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price started a fresh decline below $2.10 and $2.050.

There was a move below the $2.00 support level. A low was formed at $1.993, and the price is now consolidating losses below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.177 swing high to the $1.993 low.

The price is now trading below $2.050 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $2.0350 level. The first major resistance is near the $2.050 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $2.050 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair.

A close above $2.050 could send the price to $2.085 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $2.177 swing high to the $1.993 low. The next hurdle sits at $2.10. A clear move above the $2.10 resistance might send the price toward the $2.150 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $2.1850 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $2.220.

More Losses?

If XRP fails to clear the $2.050 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2.00 level. The next major support is near the $1.9850 level.

If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.9850 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.920. The next major support sits near the $1.880 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.820.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $2.00 and $1.9850.

Major Resistance Levels – $2.050 and $2.10.

A noted Bitcoin adviser has warned that Shiba Inu faces an uphill climb unless it retakes a prior support band, a call that has stirred debate across crypto social channels.

According to posts by BingX Bitcoin adviser Nebraskan Gooner, the token must return above a horizontal region he marked between $0.000014 and $0.00001 to avoid a “dead” outlook.

Key Support Level Under Scrutiny

Gooner’s chart points to a multi-year zone that once acted as firm support. Reports show SHIB touched that band and later surged to about $0.000045 in early March 2024.

The importance of the area is highlighted by the token’s price action: it has spent much of Q4 2025 below that range, and at the time of reporting SHIB was trading around $0.000008618.

That places the coin roughly 33–38% below the $0.000013–$0.000014 region that many traders watch as critical.

$SHIB

Dead unless it reclaims red. pic.twitter.com/LOllFuyPYv

— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) December 9, 2025

Technical Traders See Trouble Ahead

Breaking a long-held support level often flips buying interest into resistance, and that scenario is what traders fear here. Based on reports from market commentators, a failure to climb back into the red band would make upward moves harder and likely sap momentum.

Gooner used blunt language, saying “Dead unless it reclaims red” unless the token reclaims the zone. The phrase was repeated widely, feeding both bearish calls and pushback from supporters.

Community Response And Roadmap Calls

Across social threads, many users argued that SHIB is not unique; several altcoins appear stalled in the current phase. A number of holders said SHIB’s recovery chances may hinge on a wider altcoin rebound, sometimes called altcoin season.

According to Zach Humphries, members of the Shiba Inu project must refocus every ecosystem initiative around SHIB, reposition the token to attract renewed retail interest, and publish a clear, actionable roadmap to restore earlier momentum.

Bitcoin’s Role In A Possible Comeback

Some analysts pointed to Bitcoin as the likely spark for any broad recovery, expecting the alpha coin to rebound toward $125,000 from around $90,000, while others have projected a new peak near $150,000 in 2026. If Bitcoin climbs above $100,000, traders say speculative flows could return and lift meme tokens including SHIB.

Price Snapshot And What Comes Next

Short-term price moves show SHIB up 0.95% in the past 24 hours but down 4.8% over the last week. Many market observers emphasize that a return into the highlighted $0.000014–$0.00001 area would improve technical odds for a rally.

At the same time, others warn that even with historical liquidity and a large community, reclaiming a broken support is often difficult and can take time. The coming weeks will likely test whether market-wide momentum or renewed project direction can change SHIB’s path.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum price started a fresh increase above $3,350. ETH is now correcting gains from $3,450 and might decline further below $3,200.

• Ethereum started a downside correction from the $3,450 zone.
• The price is trading near $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $3,240 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).
• The pair could continue to move down if it settles below the $3,200 zone.

Ethereum Price Declines Heavily

Ethereum price managed to stay above $3,200 and started a fresh increase, beating Bitcoin. ETH price gained strength for a move above the $3,320 and $3,350 resistance levels.

The bulls even pushed the price above $3,400. However, the bears were active below $3,450. A high was formed at $3,448 and the price is now correcting gains. There was a sharp decline below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $2,914 swing low to the $3,448 low.

Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $3,240 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. Ethereum price is now trading near $3,200 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

If there is another upward move, the price could face resistance near the $3,250 level. The next key resistance is near the $3,300 level. The first major resistance is near the $3,320 level. A clear move above the $3,320 resistance might send the price toward the $3,400 resistance. An upside break above the $3,400 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $3,450 resistance zone or even $3,500 in the near term.

More Losses In ETH?

If Ethereum fails to clear the $3,250 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $3,200 level. The first major support sits near the $3,180 zone and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the $2,914 swing low to the $3,448 low.

A clear move below the $3,180 support might push the price toward the $3,150 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $3,050 region. The next key support sits at $3,000.

Technical Indicators

Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is gaining momentum in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone.

Major Support Level – $3,180

Major Resistance Level – $3,300

On-chain data shows the Solana Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has dipped into the loss-taking zone recently, a sign that SOL liquidity has thinned.

Solana Liquidity Back At Levels Associated With Bear Markets

According to data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Solana liquidity has recently contracted to levels that are typically witnessed in a bear market. There are many ways “liquidity” of a cryptocurrency can be assessed, but here, Glassnode has used the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.

This indicator measures, as its name already implies, the ratio between the amount of profit and loss that the SOL investors as a whole are realizing through their transactions.

The metric works by going through the transaction history of each coin being sold on the network to see what price it was last moved at. If the previous transaction price was less than the latest selling price for any token, then the indicator considers its sale to have realized a net gain. Similarly, the metric adds transactions to the loss-taking category in the opposite case.

The exact amount of profit or loss realized in any transfer is naturally equal to the difference between the latest price and last selling value. The indicator adds up this value for both categories and determines the ratio.

Now, here is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the 30-day moving average (MA) of the Solana Realized Profit/Loss over the last few years:

As displayed in the above graph, the Solana Realized Profit/Loss witnessed a sharp spike during the price rally in September. This suggests that profit taking saw an explosion. The indicator maintained at high levels for a while, but following the price peak in October, its value went downhill fast.

In November, the Realized Profit/Loss breached below the 1 mark as SOL plummeted. A value less than 1 on the metric implies loss realization is outpacing profit taking. Since this breakdown, the indicator has only gone lower inside the loss-taking region, a sign investor capitulation has only been becoming more dominant.

Glassnode has noted that the trend signals “liquidity has contracted back to levels typically seen in deep bear markets.” During the 2022 bear market, Solana remained in these conditions for a few months before its price found a bottom.

It now remains to be seen whether the low liquidity will also persist for the cryptocurrency this time, or if the fall into the loss region is only a temporary one for the indicator.

SOL Price

Solana surged to $144 on Tuesday, but the coin has seen a fall back to $138.

Bitcoin price failed to continue higher above $94,000. BTC is now gaining bearish pace and might decline further below $89,500.

• Bitcoin started a downside correction from the $94,500 zone.
• The price is trading below $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average.
• There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $91,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
• The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $89,500 zone.

Bitcoin Price Dips Again

Bitcoin price failed to gain strength for a move above the $94,000 and $94,500 levels. BTC started a downside correction and traded below the $92,000 support.

There was a clear move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $87,777 swing low to the $94,583 high. Besides, there was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $91,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.

Bitcoin is now trading below $91,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. The price is now approaching the $89,500 support, and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $87,777 swing low to the $94,583 high.

If the bulls remain in action, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is near the $91,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $91,500 level. The next resistance could be $92,000. A close above the $92,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $92,850 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $94,000 and $94,500.

More Losses In BTC?

If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $92,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $89,500 level. The first major support is near the $88,800 level.

The next support is now near the $87,750 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $86,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $85,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $89,500, followed by $88,800.

Major Resistance Levels – $91,200 and $92,000.

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi has sharpened his defense of Ethereum’s valuation, arguing that critics are using the wrong financial framework and that ETH should be analyzed more like an early-stage Amazon than a mature “value” stock.

Speaking on the Milk Road Show on 9 December 2025, Qureshi revisited his now-viral valuation clash with investor Santiago “Santi” Santos, hosted by ThreadGuy, which reignited the debate over how to price layer 1 blockchains. At the core of Qureshi’s thesis is a simple but controversial claim: fee revenue on Ethereum is effectively pure margin and should be treated as profit, not as “revenue” in the traditional corporate sense.

“Blockchains don’t have revenue. They have profit,” he said. “When chains charge fees, that’s profit. There’s no expenses for a chain. Chains don’t pay expenses, right? There’s no AWS hosting cost for Ethereum.”

Qureshi Pushes Back On Claims Ethereum Is Overvalued

Santos had argued that Ethereum is trading at “300 plus” times sales, calling these price-to-sales (P/S) levels “embarrassing” relative to traditional companies and suggesting valuations are “way ahead of their skis.” Qureshi did not contest the magnitude of the multiples but rejected P/S as the right lens.

“He was insisting in the debate that the right way to look at these things is price of sales. So if you look at price sales for Ethereum, it’s something like 380. If you look at Amazon, I think Amazon topped out at price of sales of 42. And this was during the bubble,” Qureshi said.

He countered that for a blockchain, what equity investors would call “sales” is closer to the GDP or GMV of the on-chain economy, which is not directly measured at the protocol level. The only clean, observable line is fee income, which he treats as net income.

“The sales in some sense is like the GDP of the blockchain which we’re not measuring,” he argued. “The right thing to understand for a chain is the profit… The right thing to understand is what is the profit of Ethereum relative to the profit of Amazon.”

That opens the door to the Amazon analogy. Qureshi emphasized that Amazon delayed profitability for almost two decades to prioritize growth, yet public markets still assigned it extremely high earnings multiples.

“Amazon literally made no profit, no profit until basically about 20 years in as a business,” he said. “In the year I think it was 2013… Amazon had a PE ratio… over 600 whereas today the PE ratio of Ethereum of course is something like 380.”

Because Ethereum’s P/S and P/E converge under his “fees = profit” assumption, Qureshi’s argument is that investors should compare ETH’s 300–380x multiple to Amazon’s P/E history, not to its much lower P/S, if they are going to use a single headline ratio at all.

The broader context, he stressed, is that Ethereum and other L1s are still in an exponential build-out phase, more akin to early internet or e-commerce infrastructure than to late-cycle dividend payers.

“This technology has been getting bigger and bigger over time. It’s gobbling up the entire world of finance from where it started,” he said, referencing his essay “In Defense of Exponentials.” “None of [these technologies] started printing a bunch of profit immediately in the first five or even 10 years.”

Despite choppy price action and underperformance of altcoins versus AI equities and gold, Qureshi said his conviction in the long-dated Ethereum thesis has increased, not weakened, through the public debate.

“If anything, I have become more confident in my view,” he said, adding that nothing material had changed in the last months to justify a major portfolio rethink. “What exactly has changed in the last 2 months between, you know, ETH going to like $4,800 and ETH being at $3,000? The answer is basically nothing.”

Shared some post-debate reflections on my L1 debate with @santiagoroel, my rebuttal against the “crypto is all a big casino” doomers, and where I think we are in the crypto macro cycle https://t.co/9uMJFuLVrX

— Haseeb ＞|＜ (@hosseeb) December 9, 2025

For Qureshi, a genuine repositioning would require a clear invalidation of core assumptions—such as a quantum break of cryptography or a structural collapse in on-chain stablecoin demand. Short-term swings, in his view, are simply the pendulum of sentiment moving around a still-fixed fundamental anchor.

His message to skeptics is that if markets tolerated Amazon at 600x earnings while it scaled into a dominant platform, dismissing Ethereum at roughly 300–380x on a “too high on P/S” argument alone is analytically inconsistent.

At press time, ETH traded at $3,325.

Ethereum is trading with renewed strength after breaking above the $3,300 level and briefly pushing toward $3,400, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, despite this recovery, bullish conviction remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that the broader trend still leans bearish, emphasizing that Ethereum has yet to reclaim the structural levels needed to confirm a macro reversal.

Yet one signal has captured significant attention: according to fresh data from Lookonchain, a major whale known as BitcoinOG has doubled down on his Ethereum long position. This trader is widely recognized for being the whale who successfully shorted Bitcoin during the October 10 market crash, a move that earned him substantial profits and elevated his reputation across the on-chain analysis community.

Rather than taking profits after ETH’s recent pump, he has expanded his long exposure—an unusually aggressive stance at a time when most traders remain cautious.

His renewed commitment raises questions about whether smart money is quietly positioning for a larger upside move, even as broader sentiment remains skeptical. If momentum holds, Ethereum may be preparing for a far more significant move than the market currently expects.

Whale Positioning and FOMC Impact

According to Lookonchain, the whale known as BitcoinOG has now expanded his position to 85,001 ETH, valued at roughly $280 million, and is currently sitting on more than $16 million in unrealized profit. Such an aggressive accumulation during a period of widespread caution signals a notable divergence between retail sentiment and whale behavior.

When a trader with a proven track record positions this heavily on the long side, it often reflects a strategic conviction that market conditions could soon shift in favor of higher prices.

However, this positioning unfolds just as the market approaches a pivotal macro event: the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates can dramatically influence liquidity, risk appetite, and short-term volatility across all risk assets, including Ethereum.

A rate cut could inject optimism into the market by weakening the US dollar and improving overall liquidity conditions. Conversely, a hawkish tone or a smaller-than-expected policy adjustment could trigger a sell-the-news reaction, especially with ETH nearing resistance.

For Ethereum, whale accumulation combined with macro uncertainty creates a high-stakes environment. If liquidity expands post-FOMC, ETH could gain momentum. If not, even strong whale positions may face short-term pressure.

ETH Testing Breakout Strength Ahead of Key Resistance

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows a decisive shift in momentum, with ETH pushing firmly above the $3,300 level after a clean breakout from its multi-week downtrend. This move marks one of the strongest bullish impulses since early November, supported by rising volume and a clear reclaim of the 50 EMA and 100 EMA.

The 200 EMA (red), which previously acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline, has now been tested and is beginning to flatten—often an early indication that bearish momentum is losing dominance.

However, ETH is now hovering directly below a critical resistance zone around $3,380–$3,420, a level where sellers previously stepped in aggressively. The current consolidation just beneath this zone reveals an undecided market: bulls attempt to establish acceptance above $3,300, while bears defend the next resistance layer.

If buyers manage to flip $3,320 into solid support, the path toward $3,500 becomes more achievable, especially if broader market sentiment improves. Conversely, a rejection from the $3,400 area could trigger a short-term pullback toward $3,200–$3,250, where moving averages are now stacked as layered support.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

XRP remains under the weight of its long-standing downtrend, but recent price action suggests the bears may be losing their grip. Upward moves are becoming sharper and more impulsive, while downward momentum slows, hinting that buyers are quietly stepping in. With a decisive breakout above key resistance, the bulls could be gearing up for a significant counterstrike.

Overarching Bearish Structure: The Red Trend Line Cap

According to the latest XRP chart update by MakroVision Research, the broader market structure remains firmly within a downward trajectory, clearly outlined by the steeply declining red trend lines. These trend lines continue to cap every attempt at recovery, leaving the larger technical picture unchanged and leaning bearish.

Although the internal structure of the market has begun to show notable signs of improvement. Short-term price behavior reveals that upward movements are becoming more impulsive, faster, and more defined. At the same time, the downward phases are gradually slowing, taking longer to unfold and displaying less momentum.

This shift is a classic indication of fading selling pressure and increasing buyer activity at lower levels. The market may still be sitting below a dominant resistance zone, but its internal dynamics are no longer as weak as before.

If XRP manages a decisive move above the red trend line around $2.48, it would unlock the bullish potential that has been quietly building beneath the surface. Without this breakout, the token remains technically under pressure, but the groundwork for a potential reversal is clearly forming.

Key price levels to watch include the $2.2 – $2.22 resistance zone, the major $2.48 breakout level, and the support region around $1.95 – $1.88, which aligns with both Fibonacci retracements and recent reaction points.

Dual Track Conflict: Bearish Trend Vs. Bullish Internal Structure

In conclusion, MakroVision Research has highlighted that XRP is currently positioned on a dual-track path. While the big trend remains technically downward, the internal price structure is becoming increasingly and noticeably bullish. This diminishing downward momentum makes the current chart highly exciting.

The immediate fate of XRP now depends entirely on whether the asset can achieve a sustainable breakout above the crucial resistance marks previously mentioned, specifically the $2.48 trend line. If XRP succeeds in converting that major resistance into support, the analyst warns that the built-up bullish momentum could unfold very quickly, leading to a rapid surge in price.

Currently, the critical question remains whether XRP can achieve a durable trend reversal and capitalize on its internal strength, or whether the overarching bearish pressure will ultimately prevail, forcing the price to fall deeper toward the significant $1.4 low.

Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, told attendees at Binance Blockchain Week that the wall of skepticism inside big banks is breaking down faster than he once expected.

He said he had thought it might take four to eight years for major financial firms to move fully into Bitcoin. Now, he says, that timeline is compressing and the shift is visible right away.

Banking Giants Reverse Course

According to Saylor, the past 12 months have seen heavy hitters — including Citibank, BNY, Bank of America, PNC, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Vanguard — shift from hostility to a more welcoming stance on crypto.

Reports have disclosed that Vanguard has enabled clients to trade ETF shares linked to XRP and Bitcoin through its platform. Saylor added that internal plans are in motion at several institutions to roll out custody services and credit lines tied to crypto holdings.

Loans Backed By Bitcoin

Based on Saylor’s remarks, Charles Schwab is preparing to offer Bitcoin custody and to extend credit against BTC as soon as next year, and Citibank is said to be moving in a similar direction.

He recalled earlier struggles to secure bank loans using Bitcoin as collateral and said lenders have flipped their approach within roughly six months.

 

According to him, eight of the top 10 US banks are now issuing credit backed by Bitcoin, a claim that highlights how quickly attitudes appear to be changing inside the industry.

Political Climate Could Be Speeding Things Up

Saylor pointed to policy shifts under US President Donald Trump as a factor that has encouraged banks to leave the sidelines.

Many firms were already experimenting with blockchain years ago — Goldman Sachs, for example, issued one of the first Bitcoin-backed loans in 2022 — but a friendlier regulatory tone, he said, has accelerated planning and product development.

Still, banks face legal, operational and risk hurdles before these services reach broad retail customers.

Markets Watching Fed Announcement

Meanwhile, traders and analysts are watching the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed is expected to cut rates by 0.25%, bringing the target to 3.5%–3.75%, a move that often boosts risk assets like Bitcoin. Volatility is likely around the announcement, and some market players warn that early rallies can reverse quickly when the Fed provides forward guidance.

Technical Signals And Sentiment

Bitcoin’s own moves were discussed alongside the banking story. The crypto fear gauge hit 10 this week, signaling extreme fear, and price rebounded from $86,700 to roughly $92,300.

One analyst flagged resistance near $94,200 and suggested a clean breakout could open a path toward $103,000. Another observer noted Bitcoin has lagged the Nasdaq’s recovery, a divergence that could work in either direction if markets shift.

Featured image from The Information, chart from TradingView

Ethereum has pushed above the $3,350 level, injecting fresh momentum into the market after weeks of uncertainty. Yet despite this breakout, overall sentiment remains clouded by fear, with many analysts still warning that the broader structure points toward a developing bear market. Traders now find themselves at a pivotal juncture: is this the beginning of a sustained recovery, or merely a temporary rally before further downside?

According to a new CryptoQuant report, one of the most revealing indicators right now is Ethereum’s funding rate behavior across major exchanges. Unlike the explosive funding spikes seen during the two major rallies earlier this year, the current move shows a remarkably restrained funding environment. During those earlier surges, funding rates climbed aggressively into overheated territory, signaling euphoric long leverage and speculative excess — conditions that closely preceded short-term market tops.

This time, however, funding remains far more subdued. The absence of aggressive long positioning suggests that the current rally is not being driven by excessive leverage, which gives the move a different character compared to earlier spikes. Whether this signals healthier accumulation or simply a lack of conviction remains the core question as Ethereum approaches the next decisive phase.

Muted Funding Rates Highlight a Cautious But Potentially Constructive Rally

The CryptoQuant report highlights that, unlike previous explosive rallies, Ethereum’s current funding rates remain unusually low, even after its sharp recovery from the $2.8K region. This subdued funding environment signals that the derivatives market is not yet saturated with speculative long positions.

Buyers are stepping in, but modest leverage drives this move compared to past phases dominated by aggressive traders. Consequently, spot accumulation drives the current advance more than overheated futures activity.

This difference carries important implications. Without a surge in speculative demand, Ethereum may struggle to ignite the kind of full bullish continuation leg seen in earlier breakout cycles. Historically, strong uptrends have required funding rates to expand meaningfully as traders chase price, forcing shorts to cover and fueling upward momentum. That behavior has not yet emerged in the current structure.

However, this muted landscape is not inherently bearish. Instead, it reflects a recovering market, not an overextended one. This leaves Ethereum with room to climb further — if demand strengthens. At the same time, the lack of leverage means the rally remains vulnerable; strong resistance rejections could quickly weaken momentum unless fresh buyers step in.

Testing Key Resistance as Momentum Builds

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a notable shift in momentum as the price pushes toward $3,320, extending its rebound from the sub-$2,800 lows. This recovery phase has been steady rather than explosive, reflecting a market that is stabilizing but still facing key overhead challenges.

The first major test is the 200-day moving average (red line), which ETH is now approaching after several weeks of trading below it. Historically, reclaiming this level has marked the transition from corrective phases into renewed bullish cycles, but a clean breakout is far from guaranteed.

The structure of the recent move highlights improving buyer confidence: ETH has formed a series of higher lows, indicating accumulation after the capitulation-like November drop. Although buyers are active, the relatively subdued volume profile suggests they lack broad-based conviction. A stronger influx of volume must flip the trend decisively bullish.

The 50-day and 100-day moving averages remain above the current price and are both aligned downward, reinforcing that ETH is still technically in a broader downtrend. For momentum to extend, Ethereum must break above the $3,350–$3,400 resistance zone, where prior support turned into resistance.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Solana’s (SOL) market structure is entering a tense phase, shaped by thinning liquidity, elevated leverage, and conflicting signals across institutional flows and derivatives markets.

Related Reading: The Current Bitcoin Price Pump Will End In A Crash – Here’s When To Start Selling

While price movements remain within familiar ranges, the underlying conditions paint a more complex picture, one that traders are watching closely for signs of either exhaustion or a sharp reversal.

Recent sessions have seen Solana drift between $128 and $145, with brief rebounds lifting it toward the upper end of this range. However, liquidity indicators suggest a deeper reset is taking shape. Analysts note that these conditions often precede turning points, though they can amplify volatility in the short term.

SOL Liquidity Drops to Bear-Market Levels

On-chain data shows Solana’s 30-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has stayed below 1 since mid-November. This pattern, more losses being realized than gains, typically marks a liquidity contraction similar to historical bear-market phases.

Analysts at Altcoin Vector describe the current setup as a “full liquidity reset,” a process that typically takes several weeks to resolve.

That backdrop aligns with observations from SynFutures, whose team cites realized losses, declining futures open interest, and fragmented liquidity pools as contributing factors.

Market-makers have also pulled back, thinning order books even as realized volatility increases. The effect is a market highly sensitive to sharp moves, particularly around key liquidation clusters.

A notable risk is emerging around the $129 level, where nearly $500 million in long positions would be liquidated if the price retests that zone. With $15.6 million in SOL contracts wiped out in the last 24 hours alone, the market remains vulnerable to cascades.

Similarly, exchange balances continue to drop, and spot ETFs have brought in more than $17 million this week, signaling accumulation despite broader stress.

Volatility Builds as Derivatives and Spot Activity Diverge

Derivatives data reflect a cautious but engaged trading environment. Open interest has climbed back above $7.2 billion, rising in tandem with a rebound in daily volume.

This type of build-up during a quiet price phase often signals positioning ahead of a larger move. Long-to-short ratios have shifted bullish in recent days, and funding rates remain positive, although traders are becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic catalysts.

Spot markets tell a different story. Liquidity is thin, and deep-cycle reset metrics point to selling exhaustion rather than active expansion. This divergence, characterized by high derivative activity against weakening spot liquidity, typically precedes volatility spikes.

Key Solana Levels Ahead as Market Awaits a Cycle Turn

Technically, Solana remains stuck between established boundaries. The $145 resistance zone has capped multiple attempts to break higher, while support around $135 and deeper levels near $129 hold significance for traders monitoring liquidation risk.

Momentum indicators are stabilizing, and the MACD is edging toward a potential positive crossover. Analysts note that past liquidity resets have been followed by rapid upside moves once conditions improved; however, the timing remains uncertain.

Related Reading: NFT Slump Worsens With Monthly Sales Hitting Rock Bottom

Currently, Solana sits at the center of a tug-of-war between cautious sentiment, thinning liquidity, and steady institutional flows. Whether these opposing forces resolve into a recovery or further volatility may depend less on price action alone and more on how quickly liquidity returns to the ecosystem.

Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview

In a move that could signal a bullish shift for Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader cryptocurrency market, the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, bringing the new rate range to 3.5% to 3.75%. 

Bitcoin Poised To Surge Toward $100,000?

Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser and a leading candidate to become the next Fed chair, commented to the Wall Street Journal CEO Council that there is “plenty of room” for additional interest rate cuts. 

He stated, “If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now, I think there’s plenty of room to do it.” Hassett, who is President Donald Trump’s preferred choice for the Fed chair position after Jerome Powell’s tenure concludes, has been critical of Powell for being “too late” in lowering rates.

While the last rate cut in October had minimal impact on the Bitcoin price, analyst Michael van de Poppe believes that the current rate cut could significantly benefit the cryptocurrency. He characterized it as a “great move” for Bitcoin and noted that a breakout above $92,000 might be indicative of future bullish momentum. 

Van de Poppe expressed optimism about Bitcoin’s ability to maintain the support level between $91,500 and $92,000, suggesting that if it does, there could be a pathway for Bitcoin to approach the $100,000 mark.

Can BTC Avoid Historical 10% Decline?

Market expert Ash Crypto pointed out that historically, each of the last four times the Fed slashed rates by 25 bps, Bitcoin experienced a 5% to 10% decline shortly thereafter. Despite this pattern, Ash noted that the current market setup differs from previous scenarios, suggesting that different dynamics could be at play.

Several positive factors underpinning this optimism include the conclusion of quantitative tightening (QT) after a three-year period. Should Powell hint at the possibility of quantitative easing (QE) in his forthcoming remarks, it could spur a further bullish trend in the market. 

Additionally, with this being the third rate cut, Ash asserted that there is potential for increased liquidity to flow back into the markets, which historically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Crypto analyst Bull Theory has explained why the Bitcoin price has been crashing recently. The analyst pointed out that Wall Street traders were responsible for the price declines, indicating that these trading desks were manipulating the market for their own benefit.  

Analyst Explains Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing

In an X post, Bull Theory blamed Jane Street for the Bitcoin price’s constant crash at 10 a.m. ET when the U.S. market opens. The analyst pointed out that BTC erased 16 hours of gains in just 20 minutes after the U.S. market opened. This has notably been happening since early November, when the flagship crypto fell below $100,000. Meanwhile, a similar price action also played out in the second and third quarters of this year. 

Bull Theory noted that another analyst, Zerohedge, has claimed that Jane Street is most likely the entity responsible for this Bitcoin price crash. The analyst stated that the chart shows a pattern that is too consistent to ignore, with a clean wipeout within an hour of the market opening, followed by a slow recovery. He added that this is classic high-frequency execution and that it fits Jane Street’s profile. 

Bull Theory stated that Jane Street is one of the largest high-frequency trading firms in the world and that they have the speed and liquidity to move markets for a few minutes. The analyst claimed that their behavior is simple: dump BTC at the market open, push the Bitcoin price into liquidity pockets, and then re-enter at a lower price. 

By doing this, the analyst claimed that Jane Street has accumulated billions in BTC. The trading firm is said to hold $2.5 billion worth of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, which is its 5th-largest position. Bull Theory added that this means most of the dump in the Bitcoin price isn’t due to macro weakness but manipulation by this entity. He expects that BTC will continue its upward momentum once these big players are done buying. 

Bitcoin At Risk Of A Decline Post-FOMC

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez indicated that the Bitcoin price was at risk of a significant decline following today’s FOMC meeting. He pointed out that BTC has consistently reacted negatively to FOMC meetings, with six out of seven meetings this year leading to corrections for the flagship crypto. 

The Bitcoin price had rallied to as high as $94,500 yesterday in anticipation of a third rate cut this year from the Fed. According to CME FedWatch, there is currently a 90% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points (bps). A CryptoQuant report noted how these rate cuts have turned out to be a ‘sell the news’ event on the two occasions the Fed lowered rates this year, with the probability of this price action playing out again. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $92,600, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

Despite a noticeable cooldown in trading volumes, Bitcoin’s underlying market structure has continued to strengthen. The price action has stabilized within a narrow range as long-term holders maintain firm conviction. As more BTC flows into cold storage and supply on exchanges tightens, the market is transitioning from hype-driven swings to steady structural support.

How The Price Compression Builds Energy For A Larger Move

CIO and founder of MNFund and MNCapital, CryptoMichNL, emphasized that Bitcoin shares a strong correlation with the Nasdaq. While Nasdaq continues to show steady resilience, BTC has stalled behind. This mismatch creates a mispricing and market divergence, which is why the path toward $100,000 remains wide open and why the 4-year cycle thesis doesn’t hold up.

Recently, BTC saw a massive correction, dropping from $115,000 to $80,000 in just two weeks. During that same liquidation period, what LVisserLabs calls the rotation between Pure Vol vs. Pure Profitability or Beta vs. Quality has fallen sharply. Beta here refers to high-volatility, high-beta stocks, which are essentially tech stocks that drive the markets. Meanwhile, Quality means more risk-off assets, including high-quality, profitable, and stable companies. 

Currently, BTC has stalled after the sell-off, and the Beta assets have recovered substantially, implying that the stocks have inverted their loss with the big drop and are now grinding upwards, signaling that risk-on appetite is clearly back. With this kind of structural divergence, it’s likely that in the coming weeks or months, BTC will grind upward to $110,000 and $115,000 levels, reversing the drop as the entire correction was a little dubious.

CryptoMichNL advised that instead of relying on a time-based sounding the 4-year cycle assumption, it is better to focus on the charts and macro relationships that directly influence BTC price.

On-Chain Activity Shows Clear Confidence From Big Money

The ambassador of StandXOfficial and the KOL of Binance, who is also an advisor at KOLsAgency, Investor Ucan, has highlighted that the evidence of Bitcoin’s latest upward move is already on-chain. The last six hours have revealed a clear surge of institutional demand. On-chain data shows that Binance purchased 7,298 BTC, Coinbase bought 1,362 BTC, Wintermute bought 2,174 BTC, BlacRock bought 1,362 BTC, and an unknown whale bought 6,192 BTC. In total, 20,438 BTC were purchased in just six hours, valued at approximately $1.9 billion.

Ucan noted that the timing of this purchase is what stands out. These inflows hit the market hours before the Federal Reserve’s upcoming employment data was released. Institutional is clearly expecting a supportive outcome. A positive print refers to easing expectations and fresh liquidity on the horizon. Retail traders are reacting, and the institutions are anticipating early. If the Fed confirms what these flows imply, today’s buying won’t look like simple momentum, but preparation.

Surging about 4% in the past 24 hours, Stellar (XLM) goes through December with a mix of optimism and caution as new payment integrations and institutional pilots draw attention back to the network’s utility.

However, despite signs of growing real-world use, XLM continues to trade near a critical long-term support level, leaving traders divided on whether the token is preparing for a recovery or facing another downward leg.

Recent activity across payments, banking pilots, and data-infrastructure upgrades show how Stellar’s ecosystem is expanding at a time when the token sits at a pivotal market position. The tension between strengthening fundamentals and fragile price structure is shaping the month’s outlook.

Rising Utility Gives Stellar a Boost

Network usage has climbed following several developments in November. Wirex activated USDC and EURC card-settlement on Stellar for more than seven million users, shifting everyday transactions onto the blockchain and increasing stablecoin throughput.

Days later, U.S. Bank began testing a programmable stablecoin on Stellar, adding an institutional layer to the network’s growing settlement activity.

The recent integration of Space and Time (SxT), which now indexes the full Stellar network and provides cryptographically verified data to institutions, also strengthens the chain’s infrastructure.

Together, these upgrades position Stellar as a functioning payments network rather than a speculative asset alone. Early market reaction has been modest, but analysts note that expanding stablecoin flows could support stronger demand for XLM over time.

Price Holds Key Support as Traders Watch $0.245

Despite the momentum in utility, XLM continues to sit at one of its most important technical zones. The token has trended downward since November 2024 and now trades just above the $0.245 horizontal support, an area that has repeatedly prevented deeper losses over the past year.

Weekly indicators remain bearish, with RSI below 50 and MACD negative, suggesting that long-term momentum still leans downward. Short-term charts show a contained bounce within an ascending channel, which analysts view as corrective rather than a new uptrend.

A decisive break below $0.245 could open the door to new lows, while holding this level would give bulls another chance to challenge overhead resistance.

Resistance Blocks Cap Upside Expectations

Even with potential catalysts from network growth, analysts remain cautious about XLM’s ability to retest previous highs. Multiple reports highlight the $0.26–$0.27 range as the first major resistance zone, followed by a broader cluster near $0.28–$0.31.

Some forecasts suggest a possible move toward $0.31 by year-end if momentum strengthens, though this outlook carries medium confidence given the broader market’s uncertainty.

Stellar’s December narrative is supported by two opposing forces, rising real-world adoption and a price chart still struggling against long-standing resistance. Whether utility gains translate into market recovery will depend on XLM’s ability to hold its support level and reclaim key technical thresholds in the weeks ahead.

Cover image from ChatGPT, XLMUSD chart from Tradingview