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70% of Institutions Say Bitcoin is Undervalued Despite 30% Crash – Bitcoin About to Rally?

Most institutional investors remain bullish on Bitcoin despite brutal fourth-quarter volatility that erased nearly a third of the asset’s value from recent peaks.

A new Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode survey found 70% of institutions view BTC as undervalued, even after the token dropped from above $125,000 in early October 2025 to trade around $90,000 by year-end, while 60% of non-institutional investors share that conviction.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

The findings come from a quarterly poll of 148 global investors, split between 75 institutions and 73 non-institutions, conducted between December 10, 2025, and January 12, 2026.

Despite the October liquidation event that shook altcoin markets and compressed leverage across derivatives platforms, most respondents held or added to crypto positions rather than retreating.

Around 62% of institutions and 70% of non-institutions either maintained existing allocations or increased net long exposure since October.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

Bearish Sentiment Rises, But Doesn’t Dominate Positioning

Perceptions of the market cycle shifted noticeably during the quarter.

Around 26% of institutions and 21% of non-institutions now believe crypto has entered the bear-market markdown phase, up sharply from just 2% and 7%, respectively, in the prior survey.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

That shift exposes the weight of October’s deleveraging event, which saw the Altcoin Season Index plummet and mid-cap tokens struggle to recover their third-quarter gains despite the launch of several spot altcoin ETFs in the US.

Still, the uptick in bearish views did not translate into widespread selling. Most investors stuck with their positions, and sentiment toward Bitcoin specifically remained constructive.

We have a constructive view for 1Q26,” Coinbase Global Head of Research David Duong wrote in the report. “We believe that crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state, with excess leverage having been flushed from the system in Q4.

Bitcoin dominance held relatively steady through the turbulence, rising only marginally from 58% to 59% over the quarter, a sign that institutional capital continued to favor the largest digital asset even as smaller tokens faced sustained selling pressure.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

Open interest in BTC options overtook perpetual futures as market participants sought downside protection, with the 25-day put-call skew staying positive across 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day expiries.

Source: Coinbase Institutional

Coinbase Survey Points to Macro Support and Policy Progress

Several factors underpinned the optimistic outlook. Inflation held steady at 2.7% in December’s Consumer Price Index reading, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected robust 5.3% real GDP growth for the fourth quarter as of January 14.

While the future direction of monetary policy remained uncertain, Duong said the firm still expects the Federal Reserve to deliver two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points currently priced into Fed funds futures, “which should provide a tailwind for risk assets broadly and crypto specifically.

Questions about comprehensive crypto market structure legislation persist, but confidence in eventual regulatory clarity stayed firm.

We’re confident that we will eventually see a set of rules that allows the industry to reach its full potential,” the report stated, noting that major policy progress in the US, particularly around the proposed CLARITY Act, could boost investor sentiment further.

Beyond the survey, separate data shows institutional engagement deepening across channels.

🚀 Crypto allocations by financial advisors hit 32% in 2025, up from 22% a year earlier, as Bitcoin reached new highs and US rules moved closer to the mainstream, a @BitwiseInvest survey showed. #DigitalAssets #WealthManagement https://t.co/dCIdMFRG7I

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 14, 2026

A recent Bitwise and VettaFi poll found 32% of financial advisors allocated to crypto in client accounts during 2025, up from 22% in 2024, with registered investment advisors leading at 42%.

Similarly, a separate Coinbase survey found that younger US investors now allocate 25% of their portfolios to non-traditional assets, compared with 8% among older cohorts.

Risks Remain, But Long-Term Trajectory Holds

The Coinbase report acknowledged headwinds. While the economy appears solid, the jobs market cooled in 2025, with the US adding just 584,000 positions, down from 2 million in 2024, partly due to increased AI adoption.

Geopolitical tensions have flared in several regions, and any escalation that disrupts energy markets could dampen investor appetite.

A meaningful uptick in inflation, a spike in energy prices, or a significant flare up of geopolitical tensions could warrant a more cautious approach to risk assets,” the report warned.

Still, onchain metrics improved after October’s shakeout. Bitcoin supply moved within three months, surged 37% in the fourth quarter, while coins unmoved for over a year fell 2%, indicating short-term distribution that likely cleared weaker hands.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio swung sharply through 2025, hitting capitulation in the first quarter, then rising to optimism in the third quarter, and settling back into fear territory by year-end.

Institutions Bitcoin Is Undervalued - Coinbase Chart
Source: Coinbase Institutional

Despite recent ETF outflows totaling $1.62 billion over four trading days and Bitcoin slipping below $90,000, institutional conviction appears durable. As Duong put it, “crypto markets are entering 2026 in a healthier state.”

The post 70% of Institutions Say Bitcoin is Undervalued Despite 30% Crash – Bitcoin About to Rally? appeared first on Cryptonews.

Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst

Polymarket has re-entered the U.S. market following regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a move that could position prediction markets as a new engagement tool for major crypto platforms such as Coinbase, according to a report by Clear Street analyst Owen Lau.

The prediction market operator which was restricted from serving U.S. customers in 2022, has returned after receiving a CFTC approval of an Amended Order of Designation.

Polymarket has now launched a U.S.-based application initially offering a limited set of sports-related event contracts, with additional verticals such as politics and crypto expected over time.

Lau describes the development as a meaningful reversal allowing Polymarket to onboard brokerages and customers directly while facilitating trading on regulated U.S. venues.

🚀 In 2026, prediction models will be used to collectively decide what is true and what is not [true] and as a guide for fact-checking, analysts say. #Polymarket #Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #BTChttps://t.co/fkQeRz28Qs

— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) December 30, 2025

Ultra-Low Fees Show Growing Competition

Polymarket’s comeback is accompanied by a notably aggressive pricing structure. The platform is offering 10 basis point taker fees and zero maker fees which Lau believes is the lowest among major prediction market and sports betting platforms.

For comparison, DraftKings and FanDuel reported net revenue margins of 6.7% and 10.1%, respectively. Lau said Polymarket’s pricing makes it a credible alternative to incumbent sports betting operators and signals increasing fee compression across event-based trading markets.

State-Level Regulatory Risk Remains Fragmented

While the CFTC approval may suggest improved federal-level clarity for certain event contracts, Lau cautioned that regulatory risk remains uneven at the state level.

On Jan. 20, 2026, a Massachusetts judge granted an injunction preventing rival platform Kalshi from offering sports-related event contracts in the state.

More broadly, at least three states — Massachusetts, Nevada, and Maryland — have issued unfavorable rulings against prediction market platforms, highlighting continued fragmentation across U.S. jurisdictions. This patchwork environment could complicate the sector’s expansion even as federal oversight becomes clearer.

Coinbase Seen as Key Distribution Partner

Lau argues that these developments represent an opportunity for Coinbase and indirectly Circle to partner with Polymarket or other prediction market platforms.

Coinbase’s scale — more than 100 million verified users and 9.3 million monthly transacting users — provides a sizable and relevant distribution base for event contracts. In his note, Lau suggests that prediction markets could benefit from being embedded into larger platforms with existing user engagement.

However, he notes that prediction markets may not become major standalone profit centers in the near term. Instead, Lau expects them to serve primarily as engagement and retention tools within Coinbase and other integrated platforms, helping drive activity and user stickiness amid rising competition.

As prediction markets expand beyond sports into politics and crypto, Polymarket’s U.S. return could mark a new phase for event-based trading — even as regulatory uncertainty continues to shape the sector’s trajectory.

The post Polymarket’s U.S. Comeback Positions Prediction Markets as a Coinbase Retention Play: Analyst appeared first on Cryptonews.

Why Is Crypto Down Today? – January 26, 2026

The crypto market is down today again. The cryptocurrency market capitalisation decreased by 0.8% over the past 24 hours, now standing at $3.05 trillion. At the time of writing, 93 of the top 100 coins recorded price drops. The total crypto trading volume stands at $139 billion.

TLDR:
  • Crypto market cap is down 0.8% on Monday morning (UTC);
  • 93 of the top 100 coins and all top 10 coins are down;
  • BTC decreased by 0.7% to $87,860 and ETH fell by 1.5% to $2,89;
  • ETH will more likely revisit $2,000 than move above $4,000;
  • Heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts drive volatility across markets;
  • Macroeconomic developments have influenced risk assets broadly;
  • Macro uncertainty triggered over $550 million in crypto liquidations;
  • Larger Bitcoin’s response to recent uncertainty may emerge later;
  • The UK FCA moved into the final stage of consultations on crypto regulation;
  • Japan may approve its first set of spot crypto ETFs as early as 2028;
  • US spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw $103.57 million and $41.74 million in outflows, respectively;
  • Crypto market sentiment continued falling within the fear zone.
  • Crypto Winners & Losers

    We started the new week very much in the red. As of Monday morning (UTC), all top 10 coins per market capitalisation have posted price drops over the past 24 hours.

    Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.7%, currently trading at $87,860. This is the smallest drop on the list,

    btc logo
    Bitcoin (BTC)
    24h7d30d1yAll time

    Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 1.5%, changing hands at $2,892.

    The highest fall among the top 10 is Solana (SOL)’s 3.3% to the price of $122.

    It’s followed by Dogecoin (DOGE)’s drop of 1.6%, now trading at $0.1213.

    At the same time, Tron (TRX) fell the least: 0.4% to $0.2953.

    Moreover, of the top 100 coins per market cap, 93 have seen their price drop today.

    MYX Finance (MYX) fell the most. It’s down 14%, now trading at $5.86.

    Monero (XMR) follows, with a decrease of 5.4%, currently standing at $466.

    Of the green coins, River (RIVER) stands at the top, having jumped by 43% to the price of $84.7.

    The next on the list is Algorand (ALGO), which saw an increase of 2.3% to $0.1189.

    The rest are up 1.3% and less per coin.

    Macro uncertainty triggered over $550 million in crypto liquidations as BTC and ETH came under pressure.

    QCP analysis notes that crypto assets traded in a narrow range over the weekend before coming under pressure in early Asian hours, triggering over $550 million in leveraged long liquidations. BTC briefly tested $86K before finding support, while Ethereum fell to the $2,785 area.…

    — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 26, 2026

    Meanwhile, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) moved into the final stage of consultations on a set of proposed crypto regulations. The FCA said it is seeking feedback on 10 proposed rules, describing this as the “final step” in the consultation process.

    “These proposals continue our progress towards an open, sustainable and competitive crypto market that people can trust,” the regulator said.

    🇬🇧 BREAKING: The UK Just Moved to Fully Integrate Crypto Firms Into the FCA Rulebook pic.twitter.com/mGBJ61hLLB

    — Ryan (King) Solomon (@IOV_OWL) January 23, 2026

    BTC May See Belated Reaction

    Gadi Chait, Investment Manager at Xapo Bank, commented that recent weakness in Bitcoin follows a brief recovery last week, “set against a backdrop of macroeconomic developments that have influenced risk assets broadly.”

    A convergence of factors drives volatility across markets. These include heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing conflicts. Renewed focus on US strategic positioning toward Greenland and Donald Trump’s address at Davos “added to an already unsettled global environment.”

    Regulatory uncertainty, especially in the US, and macroeconomic pressures add to this. “Central bank policy divergence, including expectations around further tightening by the Bank of Japan and the continued reduction of liquidity by the US Federal Reserve, continues to shape market behaviour.”

    Chait says that, “amid this uncertainty, traditional commodities have rallied, while Bitcoin has underperformed. The reasons for this divergence are not yet clear, though such sequencing across asset classes is not without precedent.”

    “It remains possible that Bitcoin’s response emerges later, particularly as volatility subsides. For long-term participants, however, short- to medium-term price fluctuations remain a familiar feature rather than a signal of impaired fundamentals,” Chait concluded.

    Moreover, Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO at Mercuryo, argued that as a speculative asset, BTC has come under sustained selling pressure, and altcoins have followed suit.

    “While the fortunes of the digital asset space will always be viewed through a lens fixated on token prices, the bigger picture is one of continued stablecoin adoption and the steady development of payment infrastructure,” he says.

    He continues: “The evolution of the digital token space is being driven by merger and acquisition activity, alongside the inherent efficiencies of blockchain-based technology and its ability to operate around the clock, at speed and at lower cost.”

    “This reality is increasingly unavoidable for financial institutions still reliant on technology that dates back to the 1960s. Away from daily price movements, a quiet revolution is most definitely afoot,” Kozyakov concluded.

    Levels & Events to Watch Next

    At the time of writing on Monday morning, BTC was changing hands at $87,860. While the coin begun the day at the intraday high of $88,800, it relatively swiftly dropped to the low of $86,126. It has recovered somewhat since.

    Over the past seven days, BTC decreased by 5.1%, trading in the $86,319–$93,252 range. It’s now 30% away from its all-time high of $126,080.

    Failing to hold the current level risks additional pullbacks towards the $85,000 level, followed by $84,300 and $83,800.

    Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: TradingView

    At the same time, Ethereum was trading at $2,892. Earlier in the day, it traded at the intraday high level of $2,941. However, it then plunged to the intraday low of $2,787. It managed to shift course and move higher following this drop.

    In a week, ETH fell 9.2%, moving between $2,801 and $3,222. Moreover, it decreased 41% from its ATH of $4,946.

    Currently, the price risks a fall toward $2,670 and $2,520 in the near term.

    eth logo
    Ethereum (ETH)
    24h7d30d1yAll time

    Additionally, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, it is more likely that ETH will revisit the $2,000 level than push upwards and above $4,000.

    ETH has been stuck in the $2,000–$4,000 range since 2023. However, it is leaning toward the lower end of this range.

    Ether appears to be heading toward the lower end of its $2,000-$4,000 range since 2023. I see greater risks of it staying below $2,000 than above $4,000, especially when stock market volatility rebounds. pic.twitter.com/1IAMV10Jwe

    — Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) January 25, 2026

    Meanwhile, the crypto market sentiment exited the neutral zone a week ago, and it has continued falling lower within the fear zone since.

    The crypto fear and greed index decreased further over the weekend, currently standing at 29, compared to 34 seen over the weekend.

    Unsurprisingly, given the market conditions, the sentiment reflects the overall worry and caution. It is now possible that the metric will drop further.

    Source: CoinMarketCap

    ETFs Continue The Red Streak

    The US BTC spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted another day of outflows on Friday, totalling $103.57 million. This is the fifth consecutive day of negative flows.

    The total net inflow has pulled back yet again and now stands at $56.49 billion.

    Of the twelve ETFs, two recorded outflows, and none saw inflows. BlackRock let go of $101.62 million, and Fidelity followed with $1.95 million in outflows.

    Source: SoSoValue

    Moreover, the US ETH ETFs posted outflows as well on 22 January, with $41.74 million – a similar level as the day earlier. With this fourth consecutive red day, the total net inflow now stands at $12.3 billion.

    Of the nine funds, two ETH ETFs posted outflows, and two saw inflows. BlackRock recorded $44.49 million in outflows, followed by Grayscale’s $10.8 million.

    At the same time, Grayscale Mini Trust took in 9.16 million, followed by Fidelity’s $4.4 million in inflows.

    Source: SoSoValue

    Meanwhile, Japan’s Financial Services Agency is reportedly planning to add cryptocurrencies to the list of assets eligible for spot ETF products.

    Japan would likely approve its first set of spot crypto ETFs as early as 2028, ending the agency’s ban on spot crypto ETFs.

    🇯🇵 Japan’s Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings are developing the first crypto ETF products, awaiting approval for listing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. #JapanCryptoETF #NomuraHoldings #SBIHoldingshttps://t.co/zT14u2QbqK

    — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 26, 2026

    Quick FAQ

    1. Did crypto move with stocks today?

    The crypto market has seen yet another drop over the past day. Meanwhile, the US stock market closed the week with a mixed picture. That said, it also posted a second consecutive red week. By the closing time on Friday, 23 January, the S&P 500 was up 0.033%, the Nasdaq-100 increased by 0.34%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.58%. Due to high volatility, investors are shifting their money into safe-haven assets, particularly gold.

    1. Is this drop sustainable?

    For now, the drops may continue in the near- to mid-term, pushed by macroeconomic developments. Occasional smaller and brief jumps are expected, intersecting the current trend.

    The post Why Is Crypto Down Today? – January 26, 2026 appeared first on Cryptonews.

    Matcha Meta Breach Drains $16.8M via SwapNet Exploit — Users Urged to Revoke Access

    A security breach tied to decentralized exchange aggregator Matcha Meta has resulted in the theft of roughly $16.8 million in crypto assets, adding to a growing list of smart-contract exploits that continue to test the safety assumptions of DeFi users.

    The incident unfolded on Sunday and was traced not to Matcha’s core infrastructure, but to SwapNet, one of the liquidity providers integrated into the platform.

    Matcha Meta disclosed the issue publicly in a post on X, saying users who had disabled its “One-Time Approval” feature and instead granted direct token allowances to individual aggregator contracts may have been exposed.

    We are aware of an incident with SwapNet that users may have been exposed to on Matcha Meta for those who turned off One-Time Approvals

    We are in contact with the SwapNet team and they have temporarily disabled their contracts

    The team is actively investigating and will provide…

    — Matcha Meta 🎆 (@matchametaxyz) January 25, 2026

    The protocol urged affected users to immediately revoke approvals connected to SwapNet’s router contract, warning that failure to do so could leave wallets vulnerable to further unauthorized transfers.

    $17M Vanishes in Seconds: How Matcha Hackers Slipped Funds Onto Ethereum

    Blockchain security firms quickly began tracking the exploit as funds moved on-chain.

    PeckShield reported that approximately $16.8 million had been drained in total, with the attacker swapping around $10.5 million in USDC for roughly 3,655 ETH on the Base network before starting to bridge assets to Ethereum.

    #PeckShieldAlert Matcha Meta has reported a security breach involving SwapNet. Users who opted out of "One-Time Approvals" are at risk.

    So far, ~$16.8M worth of crypto has been drained.

    On #Base, the attacker swapped ~10.5M $USDC for ~3,655 $ETH and has begun bridging funds to… https://t.co/QOyV4IU3P3 pic.twitter.com/6OOJd9cvyF

    — PeckShieldAlert (@PeckShieldAlert) January 26, 2026

    CertiK independently flagged suspicious transactions, identifying one wallet that siphoned about $13.3 million in USDC on Base and converted the funds into wrapped Ether.

    Both firms pointed to a vulnerability in the SwapNet contract that allowed arbitrary calls, enabling the attacker to transfer tokens that users had previously approved.

    1/ The vulnerability seems to be in arbitrary call in @0xswapnet contract that let attacker to transfer funds approved to it. (https://t.co/B7ux5zzMLS)

    The team have temporarily disabled their contracts is actively investigating.https://t.co/NBNvzxHCRw

    Please revoke approval…

    — CertiK Alert (@CertiKAlert) January 26, 2026

    Matcha later clarified that the incident was not connected to 0x’s AllowanceHolder or Settler contracts, which underpin its One-Time Approval system.

    The team noted that users who interacted with Matcha using One-Time Approvals were not affected, as this design limits how much access a third-party contract can retain.

    After reviewing with 0x's protocol team, we have confirmed that the nature of the incident was not associated with 0x's AllowanceHolder or Settler contracts.

    Users who have interacted with Matcha Meta via One-Time Approval are thus safe.

    Users who have disabled One-Time… https://t.co/VQVmj4LL0F

    — Matcha Meta 🎆 (@matchametaxyz) January 25, 2026

    The exposure, the team said, applied only to users who opted out of that system and granted ongoing allowances directly to aggregator contracts. In response, Matcha has removed the option for users to set such direct approvals going forward.

    Old Token Approvals Emerge as a Persistent DeFi Weak Spot

    The breach highlights a recurring tension in DeFi between flexibility and safety. Token approvals, while necessary for interacting with smart contracts, have long been a weak point, particularly when permissions remain active long after a transaction is completed.

    In this case, previously granted allowances became the pathway for the exploit once the SwapNet contract was compromised.

    The incident arrives amid continued concerns over smart-contract security across the crypto sector.

    SlowMist’s year-end report shows that vulnerabilities in smart contracts accounted for just over 30% of crypto exploits in 2025, making them the leading cause of losses.

    Source: SlowMist

    Researchers have also warned that advances in artificial intelligence are accelerating how quickly attackers can identify and exploit weaknesses in on-chain code.

    While overall crypto losses declined in December, falling about 60% month-on-month to roughly $76 million, security firms cautioned that the drop did not reflect a structural improvement.

    📉 Crypto-related losses from hacks and cybersecurity exploits fell sharply in December, dropping 60% month-on-month to about $76 million.#Crypto #Hackhttps://t.co/mke6K8sLVQ

    — Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) January 2, 2026

    PeckShield noted that a single address-poisoning scam accounted for $50 million of December’s losses, showing how concentrated and severe individual incidents can be even during quieter periods.

    January has already seen several notable exploits. IPOR Labs confirmed a $336,000 attack on its USDC Fusion Optimizer vault on Arbitrum, while Truebit disclosed a smart-contract incident that on-chain analysts estimate drained more than 8,500 ETH, triggering a near-total collapse in the project’s token price.

    Last week, Layer-1 network Saga paused its SagaEVM chain after an exploit moved close to $7 million in assets to Ethereum.

    The post Matcha Meta Breach Drains $16.8M via SwapNet Exploit — Users Urged to Revoke Access appeared first on Cryptonews.

    XRP price nears key support amid conflicting signals

    • XRP trades near $1.88 as buyers defend the $1.80–$1.84 support zone.
    • Technicals conflict as oversold signals clash with a strong downtrend.
    • Break below $1.80 risks $1.70, while $2.05 is key for recovery.

    XRP is trading at a critical juncture as price action compresses near a well-defined support zone.

    The token is currently hovering around the $1.88 level after several sessions of persistent selling pressure.

    The level has become a near-term inflection point, with buyers seeking to support prices while sellers continue to reinforce the broader downtrend.

    Market participants are increasingly divided on whether XRP is forming a local bottom or preparing for another leg lower.

    Macro weakness limits XRP bulls’ ability to sustain rebounds

    Recent data shows XRP has erased most of its January gains amid a broader market-wide capitulation.

    The wider crypto market has remained under pressure as risk sentiment deteriorates and leverage continues to unwind.

    This macro weakness has limited the ability of XRP bulls to sustain rebounds, even when technical indicators flash early recovery signals.

    At the same time, XRP’s long-term fundamentals continue to generate cautious optimism.

    Japan’s plans to recognise XRP as a regulated financial asset under its Financial Instruments and Exchange Act have drawn significant attention.

    This potential regulatory clarity could improve institutional confidence and liquidity over the medium to long term.

    However, regulatory optimism has not yet translated into immediate price strength.

    Short-term traders remain focused on technical structure rather than distant policy developments.

    Technical signals paint a mixed picture

    From a technical perspective, XRP is showing both constructive and concerning signals.

    Several analysts note that XRP recently bounced from oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

    This RSI recovery has historically preceded short-term relief rallies.

    On-chain metrics also suggest declining sell pressure, with long-term holders showing signs of accumulation.

    These factors support the argument that XRP may be carving out a local bottom.

    However, bearish structure remains intact on higher timeframes.

    XRP continues to trade below a descending trendline that has capped its price since early January.

    The token is also struggling to reclaim key moving averages, including the 30-day and the 100-day simple moving averages.

    XRP price analysis
    XRP/USD price chart | Source: TradingView

    In addition, momentum indicators such as the MACD remain in bearish territory, reinforcing downside risk.

    Repeated failures near the $1.90 to $1.95 zone suggest sellers are still in control of rallies.

    This technical rejection aligns with broader market weakness rather than isolated XRP-specific selling.

    Adding to uncertainty, institutional demand signals have cooled.

    Reports indicate waning enthusiasm around XRP-linked investment products.

    This decline in demand removes a potential source of upside momentum in the near term.

    Sentiment is divided between capitulation and recovery hopes

    Market sentiment surrounding XRP reflects deep uncertainty.

    Some traders view the recent decline as a classic capitulation phase, arguing that weak hands are exiting while stronger holders quietly accumulate.

    Others warn that support levels have not yet been convincingly defended.

    Most importantly, the failure to reclaim $2.00 has kept confidence fragile, and breakdowns from prolonged consolidation can accelerate quickly.

    Despite this, XRP’s long-term narrative remains intact for many investors.

    Regulatory clarity in major jurisdictions and Ripple’s continued role in cross-border payments provide structural support.

    This creates a tension between bearish short-term price action and constructive longer-term expectations.

    As a result, XRP remains highly reactive to both technical levels and broader market sentiment shifts.

    XRP price forecast

    XRP’s near-term outlook hinges on a narrow range of key price levels.

    The immediate support lies around $1.84 to $1.80, a zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers.

    A decisive breakdown below $1.80 could expose XRP to deeper losses toward $1.73 and potentially $1.70.

    Such a move would likely confirm bearish continuation in the short term.

    On the upside, initial resistance sits near $1.92 to $1.95.

    A break above this zone would challenge the descending trendline and shift short-term momentum.

    The $2.01 to $2.05 region remains a critical bullish trigger.

    A sustained move above $2.05 could open the door for a recovery toward $2.10 and $2.20.

    Until those resistance levels are reclaimed, XRP remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

    For now, traders are watching support closely as XRP balances between breakdown risk and rebound potential.

    The post XRP price nears key support amid conflicting signals appeared first on CoinJournal.

    Ether could retest the $2,749 support level: Check forecast

    Key takeaways

    • ETH is down 1.7% in the last 24 hours and is trading below $2,900.
    • The coin could retest the $2,749 support level if the bearish trend continues.

    ETH falls below $2,900

    The cryptocurrency market has been bearish in the last three weeks despite an excellent start to the year. After hitting the $3,400 level earlier this month, Ether has lost nearly 20% of its value in the last two weeks.

    The bearish performance saw ETH lose 1.5% of its value in the last24 hours and briefly dropped below $2,800 on Sunday. It has now slightly recovered and is currently trading above $2,880.

    However, the bearish performance could persist as macroeconomic conditions continue to affect the broader crypto market. The U.S. government risks yet another shutdown as Democratic lawmakers have threatened to block a Department of Homeland Security funding bill following controversy over federal law enforcement actions.

    The Federal Reserve will also give its first rate decision of 2026 soon. If the Fed keeps the interest rate the same or increases it, Ether and other leading cryptocurrencies could record further losses in the near term.

    With Gold and Silver hitting new all-time highs a few hours ago, leading cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH could continue to underperform. 

    Ethereum could dip to the $2,749 support level

    The ETH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Ether has recorded losses recently. The leading altcoin closed its daily candle below the $3,017 on Tuesday and lost 5.5% through Sunday. 

    At press time, ETH is trading at $2,889, close to the key support at $2,749. If this support level holds, ETH could recover toward the daily resistance level at $3,017.

    ETH/USD 4H Chart

    However, traders should be cautious as the momentum indicators show that the bears are currently in control. The MACD lines are within the negative territory, while the RSI of 41 is below the neutral 50. 

    On the flip side, if Ether closes its daily candle below the $2,749 support, it could extend the correction toward the November 21 low at $2,623.

    The post Ether could retest the $2,749 support level: Check forecast appeared first on CoinJournal.

    Coinbase weighs Coinone stake as South Korea crypto deal activity surges

    • Coinbase is weighing an equity investment in Coinone as the Korean exchange explores a partial stake sale.
    • Coinone’s valuation is under pressure from losses even as it invests in AI and new trading features.
    • Deal activity is accelerating across South Korea’s crypto exchanges as global players seek regulated access.

    Coinbase is weighing a potential equity investment in Coinone, South Korea’s third-largest crypto exchange, as the platform explores options that could include selling part of its controlling shareholder’s stake, according to local media and industry sources.

    A local outlet reported on Sunday that Coinone has put itself on the market and is discussing scenarios tied to Chairman Cha Myung-hoon’s holdings.

    Cha controls 53.44% through his personal stake and his holding company, The One Group.

    The possible investment has quickly gained attention because it comes as South Korea’s crypto exchange sector enters a new phase of dealmaking, with major financial groups and global platforms looking for ways to secure access to regulated won-based trading infrastructure.

    Coinone sale speculation grows after leadership shift

    Sale chatter around Coinone has picked up after Cha returned to frontline management just four months after stepping down as chief executive.

    Some observers have interpreted his return as a move that could support a stake transaction, particularly as the discussions reportedly link directly to his controlling position.

    Coinone has not confirmed that it is pursuing a full sale.

    However, the reports suggest it is exploring multiple structures around ownership, leaving the door open for partial stake sales, new strategic investors, or broader shifts in shareholder control.

    Losses weigh on valuation even as tech upgrades accelerate

    Coinone has said Cha stepped back into management to sharpen the exchange’s technological competitiveness as it nears a double-digit market share.

    The company has highlighted investment in areas such as artificial intelligence as part of its product and infrastructure buildout.

    At the same time, Coinone’s losses have continued to pressure its valuation.

    Seoul Economic Daily put Coinone’s book value at 75.2B won, or about $52M, at the end of the third quarter, below Com2uS’s reported acquisition cost.

    Ownership attention has also turned to Com2uS, the South Korean gaming group that accumulated a 38.42% stake in Coinone between 2021 and 2022.

    The size of that holding means any transaction involving Coinone’s control structure would likely be closely watched by market participants tracking how shareholder dynamics may evolve.

    Coinbase visit highlights hunt for Korea-compliant partners

    Industry sources say Coinbase plans to visit South Korea this week and meet major local players, including Coinone, as it looks for partners to build products aligned with Korean rules.

    The reported trip has added momentum to speculation, as South Korea remains one of the world’s most active retail crypto markets but also one of the hardest for foreign firms to enter directly.

    In that context, strategic investment can offer a more workable path, allowing overseas platforms to collaborate with licensed local exchanges rather than attempting to build a standalone operation from scratch.

    The reports have also circulated widely in the crypto community.

    Korea crypto exchange deal wave gathers pace

    Coinbase’s reported interest comes as dealmaking accelerates across South Korea’s crypto exchange sector, driven by the value of licensed platforms and their access to won-denominated trading rails.

    Traditional finance groups and big tech players have been circling the market, as consolidation becomes a defining theme.

    Regulators recently cleared Binance’s long-running effort to take over GOPAX, a move that has helped fuel a wider rush of takeover interest.

    Naver Financial agreed to acquire Dunamu, the operator of market leader Upbit, in an all-stock deal, while local media have also reported Mirae Asset Securities is pursuing Korbit.

    Coinone has attempted to stand out by building new product features.

    In Aug. 2025, it launched what it called the country’s first flexible Bitcoin staking service, allowing users to earn rewards without locking up their holdings.

    Still, a possible Coinbase tie-up is emerging at a time when South Korea’s exchange landscape is shifting quickly, and when global players are searching for regulated entry points into one of Asia’s most closely watched crypto markets.

    The post Coinbase weighs Coinone stake as South Korea crypto deal activity surges appeared first on CoinJournal.

    Bitcoin ETFs in Japan: why the FSA’s next move could reshape retail investing

    • Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings are among the financial groups expected to create Japan’s first crypto ETFs.
    • Global crypto market capitalisation has tripled in three years to around $3 trillion.
    • US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have grown to roughly $120 billion in total net assets.

    Japan could be heading towards its first exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in cryptocurrencies, with listings possible as early as 2028, Nikkei reports.

    If the plan moves forward, it could give everyday investors an easier route into bitcoin and other digital tokens, without the added complexity of buying and storing crypto directly.

    The development comes at a time when large global institutions are already adding crypto ETFs to their portfolios, while regulators in major markets have started treating digital assets as a more established part of modern investing.

    Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) now appears set to test how far crypto exposure can go inside traditional market products, while tightening investor safeguards to match the risks involved.

    Crypto ETFs could enter Japan’s regulated market

    The FSA plans to add cryptocurrencies to the list of specified assets that ETFs can invest in, according to Nikkei.

    This would be a key regulatory step because it would allow fund managers to create products that track crypto prices and trade them through an exchange, much like equity or commodity ETFs.

    Stronger investor protection measures are also expected to be proposed alongside the change.

    That is likely to be central to how Japan positions crypto ETFs, given the market’s reputation for sharp price swings and the history of losses faced by retail traders during major downturns.

    If the rule change is implemented, it would bring crypto closer to Japan’s mainstream investment structure, making it available through products that are more familiar to everyday investors and operate within established oversight.

    Nomura and SBI may lead the first wave

    Several large financial players are already seen as potential early movers.

    Nikkei named Nomura Holdings and SBI Holdings among the groups poised to create Japan’s first crypto ETFs, signalling growing interest from firms that already play a major role in Japan’s financial system.

    However, any ETFs built on this framework would still need approval to list on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

    That means Japan’s top exchange would decide whether these funds can trade publicly, opening the door for wider retail participation through ordinary brokerage accounts.

    For fund issuers, ETFs could also provide a more scalable way to meet growing demand for crypto exposure, while keeping investors inside more regulated channels than direct crypto trading platforms.

    Why ETFs could lower the barrier for retail investors

    Crypto has become a significant alternative asset class, but ordinary investors still face practical hurdles when buying it directly.

    Bitcoin and other digital assets are traded and stored in crypto wallets protected by private keys, which can be difficult for less experienced investors to manage safely.

    This is where ETFs can change the experience.

    Instead of learning how wallets work or taking responsibility for storage, investors can buy and sell ETF units through a stock exchange, similar to how they trade shares.

    That ease of access is one reason crypto ETFs have become a popular gateway product in other markets.

    Regulators elsewhere have already taken this route.

    The US and Hong Kong approved their first spot cryptocurrency ETFs in 2024, setting a benchmark that Japan could eventually follow as it builds its own framework.

    Institutional adoption is growing, despite volatility

    Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can be volatile, but the sector has continued to expand.

    Global crypto market capitalisation has tripled over the past three years to around $3 trillion.

    Institutional investors have also played a bigger role in turning crypto into a more portfolio-friendly asset class.

    Pension funds, endowment funds for major universities such as Harvard, and government-affiliated investors have started including bitcoin ETFs in their holdings, adding weight to the idea that crypto exposure is no longer limited to high-risk retail speculation.

    The US market offers an example of the scale involved once regulated products become widely available.

    The total net assets of US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs now amount to roughly $120 billion.

    Some in Japan’s asset management industry estimate that crypto ETFs in the country could eventually reach 1 trillion yen ($6.4 billion).

    If Japan moves ahead with listings, that projection suggests a meaningful level of demand could emerge from domestic investors looking for exposure through exchange-traded funds rather than direct ownership.

    The post Bitcoin ETFs in Japan: why the FSA’s next move could reshape retail investing appeared first on CoinJournal.

    Gold Shines But Bitcoin Faces the Music: What 2026 Has in Store for Investors?

    January 2026 has delivered a blunt message to investors: the playbook has changed. Gold is trading above $5,000 an ounce for the first time. Bitcoin is stuck below $88,000 and cannot hold the $90,000 level it briefly reclaimed. This gap is not just a weird market moment. It looks like a reset in how capital behaves when geopolitics heats up, and policy direction gets messy.

    The numbers underline the shift. Gold rose 64% in 2025 and is already up more than 17% in the first weeks of 2026. Bitcoin, meanwhile, sits roughly 11% below its December 2024 all-time high near $108,000. Over one weekend in late January, total crypto market cap dropped by about $56 billion to roughly $2.92 trillion. This is not random noise. It reflects two different investor instincts playing out in real time.

    The Safe-Haven Rush: Why Gold Owns the Narrative Right Now

    Gold’s run is not coming from one single driver. It is coming from several forces stacking on top of each other.

    Central banks, especially in emerging markets, have been buying gold at a pace that looks more like crisis-era behavior than normal reserve management. ETF inflows have reinforced that demand. Retail and institutions are doing the same thing for the same reason: they want a hedge against currency risk, policy mistakes, and the kind of uncertainty that makes investors second-guess everything.

    The geopolitical backdrop is not helping. Trade tensions have moved from headlines into concrete threats and real negotiation pressure. President Donald Trump’s administration has floated 100% tariffs on Canadian goods tied to China-related trade developments, plus potential 200% levies on French wines and champagne. That kind of language changes behavior fast because markets do not wait for policy to become law. They price the risk now.

    Currency markets are reflecting the same mood. The Japanese yen strengthened to 153.89 per dollar, its strongest level since November 2025, as traders speculated about possible coordination between U.S. and Japanese authorities. Japan’s top currency diplomat kept timing vague, which tends to make uncertainty worse, not better. The euro pushed to a four-month high near $1.1898 as traders cut dollar exposure ahead of the Fed’s next signals and the possibility of new leadership chatter.

    These moves matter because they signal something deeper than FX positioning. They suggest investors are questioning stability and coordination at the top of the global monetary system. When people get nervous about reserve currencies, they often reach for gold. Gold does not pay yield. It does not grow cash flow. It holds value because it still functions as a trust asset when confidence in other systems starts to wobble.

    History helps frame the moment. In 2008, gold climbed from roughly $800 to about $1,900 by 2011 as central banks flooded the system with stimulus. In 2020, gold hit new highs above $2,000 during peak pandemic fear. This rally is bigger in both percentage terms and absolute levels, which suggests the market is pricing something more structural than a single shock.

    Bitcoin’s Reality Check: Why “Digital Gold” Is Not Acting Like Gold

    Bitcoin has spent years carrying the “digital gold” label. This month has exposed how fragile that comparison can be when stress hits.

    Gold is absorbing defensive flows. Bitcoin is absorbing selling from people who bought higher and now want out. That difference matters because it changes how rallies behave. When gold rallies in a risk-off environment, it often pulls in more buyers. When Bitcoin rallies in the same environment, it often runs into sellers looking to exit.

    Technically, Bitcoin has been trapped in a structure that has not offered easy upside. Price action has struggled around $87,619 after losing $90,000 during weekend trading. Support sits around $84,698 with resistance near $89,241. If support fails, downside pressure toward $84,000 becomes the obvious target. If resistance holds, $90,000 stays a psychological ceiling rather than a launchpad.

    More important than the chart is the behavior underneath it. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin holders selling at a loss for the first time since October 2023. That is a shift in tone. In strong bull phases, holders usually ride volatility because they expect higher prices ahead. When people start locking in losses, they are not thinking in bull-market terms. They are managing pain and uncertainty.

    Glassnode analysis adds another problem: a heavy supply overhang above $100,000. Many holders are sitting in positions bought between current levels and six figures. When price approaches their entry zones, they sell to break even or limit damage. That creates a supply wall that is hard to clear without fresh demand and strong momentum.

    This is not how Bitcoin behaved in 2020 to 2021. Back then, conviction and institutional narratives pushed price from $10,000 to $69,000 in about a year. Today’s structure feels more like rotation and digestion than acceleration. Futures volumes are compressed. Leverage is subdued. Traders are not leaning into upside the way they do when they truly believe the move is imminent.

    Prediction markets reflect the change in psychology. Polymarket odds have shown more confidence in gold holding above $5,500 through mid-year than Bitcoin setting new highs over the same window. That is the opposite of the mood in late 2024 when crypto optimism ran hot after Bitcoin crossed $100,000.

    The deeper takeaway is uncomfortable for some investors: Bitcoin is not acting like a safe haven right now. It is acting like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity, confidence, and risk appetite. That does not kill the long-term thesis, but it changes how investors should frame it in the short term.

    Altcoins Under Stress: What Happens When Speculation Hits a Wall

    Bitcoin’s weakness looks mild compared to what is happening in altcoins.

    Kaia (KAIA) is a clean example. It fell nearly 20% in 24 hours to around $0.0762 after breaking support near $0.0797 and briefly dipping below $0.0721. It held above its 50-day EMA, which offers some technical comfort, but the drop shows how fast liquidity disappears when sentiment cracks.

    Altcoins are built for leverage to mood. In bull phases, capital moves from Bitcoin into Ethereum, then into larger alts, then into smaller speculative tokens as investors chase bigger multiples. In corrections, the flow reverses and the weakest assets get hit first. That creates a brutal reality: altcoins can look unstoppable on the way up and untradeable on the way down.

    Ethereum has not offered much shelter either. Ether traded near $2,867 in late January, down 2.6% while Bitcoin fell 1.3%. That underperformance signals that investors are not rotating into higher-beta crypto exposure. Thin spot volume and muted derivatives activity support the same conclusion.

    The question now is whether this is a pause before another risk cycle or a deeper structural shift. Several factors argue for caution. U.S. regulation is moving, but it still has open questions around token classification and how securities law will apply. Japan may approve crypto ETFs by 2028, with firms like Nomura and SBI expected to launch products on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, but a two-year timeline does not help the next few months.

    There is also a credibility problem. Reports of a U.S.-linked crypto theft scandal involving alleged misuse of access to seizure wallets have rattled confidence. ZachXBT has traced funds linked to thefts spanning 2024 and 2025. Incidents like this do not just hurt sentiment for a week. They raise uncomfortable questions about custody, oversight, and the real-world weak points in the ecosystem.

    What Institutions Are Actually Doing Right Now

    Retail narratives dominate crypto chatter, but institutional behavior usually tells the cleaner story.

    Central banks are voting with their balance sheets, and they are choosing gold. Many of them are not willing, or not able, to justify holding an asset that can drop 15% in a week. Their gold buying creates a steady baseline bid that crypto does not have.

    Hedge funds and family offices have also turned cautious. Leverage in crypto derivatives remains compressed compared to peak cycles. Open interest in Bitcoin futures exists, but it has not expanded in the way you would expect if large players were building a new bullish stance.

    Corporate treasury adoption has not restarted in a meaningful way. During 2020 to 2021, it was easier to sell boards on Bitcoin exposure because liquidity was abundant and narratives were clean. Today, when gold is up 17% year-to-date and Bitcoin is chopping sideways, that boardroom pitch becomes harder.

    Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds remain mostly on the sidelines. They move slowly and demand strong regulatory certainty. The U.S. may get there, but it is not there yet.

    Right now, institutional money looks like it is waiting, not charging in. That is the simplest read, and it matters because those investors have the best access to research, infrastructure, and policy visibility.

    The Fed Variable: Why This Week Can Move Everything

    The late-January Federal Reserve meeting matters more than people want to admit. Not because the market expects a surprise rate hike or cut, but because guidance sets tone and liquidity expectations.

    If the Fed signals confidence that inflation is easing and hints at future cuts, risk assets usually respond well. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, and they tend to weaken the dollar, which supports commodity pricing. Crypto would benefit too, mostly through improved liquidity and renewed risk appetite.

    If the Fed stays hawkish and emphasizes inflation risk, the market hears “higher for longer.” That hurts speculation. It also pressures gold through higher real yields, though safe-haven demand can sometimes overpower yield dynamics when fear becomes the bigger driver.

    Politics adds another layer. Trump has criticized Jerome Powell publicly, and any credible talk of leadership changes introduces a market question about central bank independence. If markets interpret leadership shifts as more accommodative and more political, both gold and Bitcoin could rally on the same narrative: long-term trust risk in fiat management.

    FX moves leading into the meeting show the tension. Traders have been trimming dollar exposure. That positioning can unwind quickly after Fed messaging, which would ripple into correlated assets.

    Geography Is Not Background Noise in 2026

    Regional differences are starting to matter more.

    Asia has been mixed. China’s Shanghai index rose slightly while Japanese equities fell on yen strength. That split reflects different policy priorities and economic conditions across the region.

    Japan’s currency strength is a headwind for exporters, but the medium-term ETF discussion positions Japan as a potential regulated gateway for crypto exposure, even if the timeline stretches to 2028. Europe has its own stress points, including trade friction with the U.S. The euro’s strength helps imports but hurts export competitiveness. The ECB has moved more dovishly than the Fed, which further changes cross-border capital flows.

    The U.S. still dominates crypto market structure, liquidity, and innovation, even with regulatory uncertainty. Any real legislative breakthrough will matter globally because U.S. clarity tends to set the tone for institutions everywhere.

    Emerging markets sit at the center of the gold move. They feel currency risk hardest and often have the strongest incentive to seek alternatives. But in practice, gold is still simpler and more accessible than crypto for most investors in those regions, which helps explain why gold is absorbing flows first.

    Portfolio Positioning: What Discipline Looks Like in Uncertain Markets

    This environment punishes overconfidence.

    Gold’s role is straightforward. It is doing what it has historically done in messy periods. A 5% to 10% allocation to physical gold or gold-backed ETFs can make sense for many investors with multi-year horizons. It should protect the portfolio without taking over the entire strategy.

    Crypto needs a different label. It is closer to a venture-style exposure to technology adoption than a pure safe haven. That means sizing should be conservative. A 1% to 3% allocation can keep investors engaged in long-term upside without turning short-term volatility into a lifestyle risk.

    This is also a moment where patience often beats activity. Large shifts based on short-term moves tend to destroy value. Rebalancing rules matter more than predictions. If gold has grown far beyond its target weight, trimming back to plan can be smarter than chasing the next headline.

    Dollar-cost averaging can work for crypto investors who believe in long-term adoption but do not trust the next six weeks. Small, scheduled buys remove emotion and reduce timing risk.

    Leverage is the trap. Borrowing to amplify crypto exposure remains one of the fastest ways to blow up in a market like this. Volatility compression often precedes violent expansion. Liquidations do not care about your thesis.

    Scenarios for the Next Six Months

    Several paths remain plausible through mid-2026.

    One scenario is the most boring and arguably the most consistent with current structure: gold keeps rising on safe-haven demand while crypto chops sideways. Gold could press toward $5,500 as tensions and central bank buying persist. Bitcoin could range between $80,000 and $95,000, supported by long-term holders but capped by overhead supply and cautious institutions.

    A second scenario requires alignment: easing geopolitical tension plus Fed rate cuts. That would likely rotate capital out of gold and back into risk, lifting crypto meaningfully. Bitcoin could reclaim $100,000 if market structure improves and leverage returns, while gold could pull back but remain elevated above $4,500.

    A third scenario is the darker one: economic conditions deteriorate materially. Gold could push toward $6,000 while crypto faces forced liquidations and deeper downside, with Bitcoin potentially testing $70,000 or lower.

    A fourth scenario depends on policy competence: a clear U.S. regulatory breakthrough that unlocks institutional capital at scale. It is possible, but the near-term probability remains lower than crypto bulls want.

    The most realistic outcome may look like a mix: partial easing in some geopolitical zones, new flashpoints elsewhere, gradual Fed shifts, and crypto alternating between relief rallies and pullbacks without clean direction.

    Risk Management Rules That Still Matter

    When correlations move and narratives break, basics protect capital.

    Position sizing is the first filter. Overallocating to a single theme is the most common failure. Crypto should be sized so that total loss would not change your life. Gold should be sized so it protects the portfolio without trapping you in defensive posture if equities rebound.

    Diversification only works when it is real. Ten cryptocurrencies do not diversify if they all move with Bitcoin. Two forms of gold exposure can also behave differently: physical gold, gold ETFs, and miners each carry distinct risks.

    Liquidity matters more than people admit. Assets that trade cleanly in calm markets can become thin in stress. Holding enough cash or liquid reserves to avoid forced selling remains a timeless rule.

    Discipline is the edge. Volatility is designed to trigger bad decisions. Rules around rebalancing and allocation prevent emotional reactions. Writing down your principles during calm periods and following them during stress is not just advice. It is a practical survival tool.

    Taxes also become more important as volatility increases. Crypto gains and losses can be managed strategically through loss harvesting, holding periods, and timing. Gold can have special tax treatment in some jurisdictions. Investors should not wing it.

    What Past Divergences Tell Us

    This is not the first time asset relationships have shifted.

    In 2013’s taper tantrum, gold fell while risk assets also struggled. Safe-haven flow went into dollars, not gold. That episode shows safe haven behavior changes depending on what investors fear.

    In 2018, Bitcoin collapsed while gold stayed rangebound, because macro fear was muted. That period shows gold does not automatically benefit from crypto weakness.

    In 2020, both rallied after the initial crash because stimulus and inflation fears dominated. That environment is not today’s environment. Today looks more like geopolitical stress plus constrained liquidity, which tends to favor gold over speculative assets.

    The lesson is simple: correlations are not laws. They are temporary relationships shaped by the dominant fear in the room.

    The Ethereum Problem: Why Number Two Looks Stuck

    Ethereum’s underperformance is not just a chart issue. It points to a broader question about smart contract platforms and real adoption.

    DeFi activity is down from peak levels. NFT volumes have collapsed. Layer-2 scaling has reduced fees, which is good for users, but it has also fragmented liquidity and attention across multiple networks. That can weaken Ethereum’s network effects, even if the technology continues to improve.

    Solana and other platforms have gained share, but they have also struggled during broad risk-off conditions. So this is not just an Ethereum-specific problem. It is a demand problem across crypto applications.

    The bigger concern for Ethereum bulls is the application gap. Ethereum has proven it can work. What it has not proven is that it can deliver mainstream use cases that compete with web2 experiences at scale. Many on-chain apps still feel like tools for crypto-native users rather than products built for the public.

    Without clear demand drivers, ETH valuation stays tied to speculative appetite. In a market where investors are reducing risk, that is not a great setup.

    Regulation: The One Catalyst That Can Reprice Everything

    Even with weak price action, regulation remains the biggest potential reset.

    U.S. legislative progress is focusing on custody rules, stablecoin frameworks, and exchange registration. Real clarity on token classification would be the unlock. It would reduce existential risk for projects, give institutions rules they can follow, and lower the odds of surprise enforcement events that shake markets.

    International coordination is improving too. FATF standards have pushed most major jurisdictions toward common baselines for exchanges and wallet providers. The EU’s MiCA rules bring structure across a large economic bloc. Some elements are heavy, but clear rules often matter more than perfect rules.

    Japan’s ETF discussion suggests growing acceptance of crypto as an investment asset class, even if the pace is slow. China remains restrictive on trading, but it continues to pursue blockchain applications and central bank digital currency research.

    Regulation will not fix market structure overnight, but it can change who is allowed to participate. That is how market regimes shift.

    The CBDC Wildcard

    Central bank digital currencies sit in a strange place. They validate the concept of digital money while competing with private crypto rails.

    CBDCs are permissioned and controlled. They do not offer the decentralization or supply constraints that define Bitcoin. They can also enable deeper state-level visibility into transactions, which raises privacy concerns.

    Still, their development signals something important: central banks agree that the future of money is digital. The question is whether CBDCs simply replicate existing payment rails, or whether they introduce programmable money that could replace some stablecoin and DeFi use cases.

    If CBDCs expand surveillance and control, some users may move toward crypto as an opt-out alternative. If CBDCs remain limited and functional, they may coexist without materially disrupting crypto adoption.

    The timeline remains unclear. Technical scaling, interoperability, and political pushback will shape how fast democracies move. Authoritarian systems may move quicker, but that experience may not translate cleanly to the U.S. or Europe.

    Conclusion: Dealing With Markets That Do Not Follow Narratives

    Early 2026 is forcing investors to separate slogans from reality.

    Gold is behaving like gold. It is absorbing defensive flows during uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a high-volatility asset that depends on liquidity and confidence. That does not destroy the long-term crypto thesis, but it does change how investors should frame it right now.

    Investors should position for the market they have, not the market they want. Gold deserves a role as insurance. Crypto deserves a smaller, deliberate role as a high-upside, high-risk exposure to long-term adoption. Diversification, disciplined sizing, and patience remain the cleanest strategy in a regime where trends are not cooperating.

    The next months will reveal whether crypto consolidates before a new growth phase or whether this marks a deeper shift in how capital treats digital assets during stress. Investors who stay disciplined and realistic will be fine either way. Investors who overextend on conviction or trade emotionally will likely learn the same lesson markets teach every cycle.

    Markets humble confidence. This divergence is a reminder that assets do not owe anyone the behavior that narratives promised. The investors who accept that and manage risk accordingly will be in the best position for whatever 2026 delivers.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    1. Why is gold outperforming Bitcoin in early 2026?

    Gold is benefiting from geopolitical tension, central bank buying, and currency uncertainty. Bitcoin is behaving like a risk asset, not a safe haven, and is facing selling pressure from recent buyers.

    2. Is Bitcoin still considered “digital gold”?

    In theory, yes. In practice, not right now. Bitcoin is trading more like a speculative asset that depends on liquidity and risk appetite rather than a defensive store of value.

    3. Why did gold cross $5,000 per ounce?

    Central banks accelerated gold purchases, investors sought safety amid trade and policy uncertainty, and currency volatility increased demand for non-fiat stores of value.

    4. Why are altcoins falling more than Bitcoin?

    Altcoins carry higher risk and lower liquidity. When markets turn risk-off, capital exits speculative tokens first, leading to sharper and faster declines.

    5. Is Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin in 2026?

    Yes. Ethereum has lagged Bitcoin due to weaker demand for DeFi and NFTs, fragmented liquidity from layer-2 solutions, and lack of strong new mainstream applications.

    6. What role is the Federal Reserve playing in these markets?

    Fed guidance affects liquidity, dollar strength, and risk appetite. Uncertainty around rates and potential leadership changes has increased volatility across gold, crypto, and currencies.

    7. Are institutions buying crypto right now?

    Most large institutions are cautious. Central banks are buying gold, while hedge funds, pensions, and corporates are largely waiting for clearer regulation and better risk-reward setups.

    8. Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?

    That depends on time horizon and risk tolerance. Short-term conditions favor caution, while long-term investors may prefer small, disciplined allocations using dollar-cost averaging.

    9. How much gold or crypto should a portfolio hold in 2026?

    Many investors consider 5–10% in gold for protection and 1–3% in crypto for upside exposure, sized according to personal risk tolerance and financial goals.

    10. What could change the outlook for crypto in 2026?

    Clear U.S. regulation, Fed rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions, or renewed institutional adoption could improve sentiment. Until then, crypto is likely to remain volatile and range-bound.


    Gold Shines But Bitcoin Faces the Music: What 2026 Has in Store for Investors? was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

    How Machine Learning Roles Are Evolving Across Different Sectors

    Hire ML Developers

    Machine learning is no longer confined to research labs or experimental innovation teams. As we move into 2026, machine learning (ML) has become a core operational capability across industries — powering everything from personalized customer experiences to automated decision-making and predictive intelligence.

    But as adoption grows, so does complexity.

    The role of a machine learning professional today looks very different from what it did just a few years ago. Businesses are no longer searching for generic ML talent. Instead, they want domain-aware, production-ready experts who can design, deploy, and maintain scalable ML systems that drive real business outcomes.

    This shift is fundamentally changing how organizations hire machine learning developers, what skills they expect, and how ML roles differ across sectors.

    In this in-depth guide, we’ll explore how machine learning roles are evolving across industries, why specialization matters more than ever, and how businesses can adapt their hiring strategies to stay competitive in 2026 and beyond.

    Why Machine Learning Roles Are Changing So Rapidly

    The evolution of ML roles is driven by three major forces:

    1. ML has moved into production
    2. Industry-specific requirements are increasing
    3. ML systems are now part of core business infrastructure

    As a result, companies that continue to hire ML talent using outdated criteria often struggle to achieve ROI. That’s why forward-thinking organizations are rethinking how they hire ML developers — focusing on real-world impact rather than academic credentials alone.

    From Generalist to Specialist: A Major Shift in ML Hiring

    In the early days of ML adoption, companies hired generalists who could:

    • experiment with datasets
    • train models
    • run offline evaluations

    In 2026, that approach no longer works.

    Modern ML professionals are increasingly specialized by sector, combining technical expertise with deep domain understanding. This specialization allows them to build models that are not only accurate — but also usable, compliant, and scalable.

    Machine Learning Roles in the Technology and SaaS Sector

    How the Role Is Evolving

    In SaaS and technology companies, ML professionals are no longer “supporting features” — they are shaping product strategy.

    ML developers in this sector now focus on:

    • recommendation engines
    • personalization systems
    • AI-powered analytics
    • intelligent automation
    • customer behavior prediction

    They work closely with product managers, designers, and backend engineers.

    What Companies Look For

    To succeed, companies must hire machine learning developers who understand:

    • large-scale data pipelines
    • real-time inference
    • A/B testing
    • MLOps and CI/CD for ML
    • cloud-native ML architectures

    Product-driven ML has become a core differentiator in SaaS businesses.

    Machine Learning Roles in Finance and FinTech

    How the Role Is Evolving

    In finance, ML roles have shifted from pure modeling to risk-aware, regulation-conscious engineering.

    ML professionals now build systems for:

    • fraud detection
    • credit scoring
    • risk modeling
    • algorithmic trading
    • compliance monitoring

    Accuracy alone is not enough — explainability and governance are critical.

    What Companies Look For

    Financial organizations hire ML developers who can:

    • balance model performance with transparency
    • work with sensitive data securely
    • integrate ML with legacy systems
    • comply with regulatory standards

    This sector heavily favors ML engineers with real-world deployment experience.

    Machine Learning Roles in Healthcare and Life Sciences

    How the Role Is Evolving

    Healthcare ML roles are evolving toward decision support and operational intelligence, not autonomous decision-making.

    Use cases include:

    • diagnostics assistance
    • patient risk prediction
    • medical imaging analysis
    • hospital operations optimization

    ML professionals work alongside clinicians, researchers, and compliance teams.

    What Companies Look For

    Healthcare organizations hire ML developers who understand:

    • data privacy and security
    • bias and fairness in models
    • validation and auditing
    • human-in-the-loop systems

    Domain knowledge is often as important as technical expertise.

    Machine Learning Roles in Retail and eCommerce

    How the Role Is Evolving

    Retail ML roles have expanded from recommendation systems to end-to-end intelligence pipelines.

    ML developers now work on:

    • demand forecasting
    • dynamic pricing
    • inventory optimization
    • customer segmentation
    • churn prediction

    Speed and scalability are essential.

    What Companies Look For

    Retailers aim to hire ML developers who can:

    • work with high-volume transactional data
    • deploy real-time systems
    • optimize performance and costs
    • integrate ML into business workflows

    Retail ML success depends heavily on production reliability.

    Machine Learning Roles in Manufacturing and Supply Chain

    How the Role Is Evolving

    In manufacturing, ML is increasingly applied to predictive and operational intelligence.

    Key applications include:

    • predictive maintenance
    • quality control
    • supply chain optimization
    • demand planning
    • anomaly detection

    ML developers work with IoT data and complex operational systems.

    What Companies Look For

    Manufacturing firms hire ML developers who can:

    • process streaming and sensor data
    • build robust forecasting models
    • integrate ML with physical systems
    • ensure reliability and uptime

    This sector values engineers who understand real-world constraints.

    Machine Learning Roles in Marketing and Advertising

    How the Role Is Evolving

    Marketing ML roles have shifted toward personalization and attribution intelligence.

    ML developers now build systems for:

    • customer lifetime value prediction
    • campaign optimization
    • attribution modeling
    • content personalization

    These roles combine data science with business insight.

    What Companies Look For

    Marketing teams hire ML developers who can:

    • translate data into actionable insights
    • work with noisy, unstructured data
    • align ML outputs with KPIs
    • support experimentation frameworks

    Communication skills are critical in this sector.

    Machine Learning Roles in Logistics and Transportation

    How the Role Is Evolving

    Logistics ML roles focus on optimization under uncertainty.

    Use cases include:

    • route optimization
    • fleet management
    • demand forecasting
    • delay prediction

    ML professionals work closely with operations teams.

    What Companies Look For

    Logistics firms hire ML developers who can:

    • handle time-series and geospatial data
    • build scalable optimization systems
    • integrate ML into operational workflows

    Reliability and performance matter more than novelty.

    Machine Learning Roles in Energy and Utilities

    How the Role Is Evolving

    In energy, ML supports forecasting, efficiency, and sustainability.

    ML developers work on:

    • load forecasting
    • predictive maintenance
    • grid optimization
    • energy consumption analytics

    Systems must be robust and explainable.

    What Companies Look For

    Energy organizations hire ML developers who understand:

    • time-series modeling
    • system reliability
    • regulatory considerations
    • long-term operational planning

    The Rise of MLOps and Production-Focused ML Roles

    Across all sectors, one role is becoming universal: production ML engineer.

    Modern ML professionals must understand:

    • model deployment
    • monitoring and observability
    • retraining workflows
    • cost optimization
    • cross-team collaboration

    This is why companies increasingly prefer to hire machine learning developers with MLOps experience rather than pure researchers.

    How Hiring Expectations Have Changed

    In 2026, companies no longer hire ML talent based on:

    • academic background alone
    • model accuracy in isolation
    • research publications

    Instead, they prioritize:

    • production experience
    • system design skills
    • business alignment
    • domain understanding

    This shift is reshaping ML hiring strategies across industries.

    Common Hiring Mistakes Companies Still Make

    Despite progress, many organizations struggle by:

    • hiring generalists for specialized problems
    • underestimating production complexity
    • ignoring domain expertise
    • failing to align ML with business goals

    Avoiding these mistakes starts with clarity about the role you actually need.

    How to Hire Machine Learning Developers for Modern Industry Needs

    To adapt to evolving roles, companies should:

    • define sector-specific ML requirements
    • prioritize real-world deployment experience
    • evaluate communication and collaboration skills
    • consider dedicated or remote ML teams

    This approach leads to stronger outcomes and faster ROI.

    Why Many Companies Choose Dedicated ML Developers

    Given the growing complexity, many organizations prefer to hire ML developers through dedicated engagement models.

    Benefits include:

    • faster onboarding
    • flexible scaling
    • access to specialized expertise
    • reduced hiring risk

    This model is especially effective for long-term ML initiatives.

    Why WebClues Infotech Is a Trusted Partner to Hire ML Developers

    WebClues Infotech helps businesses adapt to evolving ML roles by providing skilled machine learning developers with cross-industry experience.

    Their ML experts offer:

    • sector-specific ML knowledge
    • production and MLOps expertise
    • scalable engagement models
    • strong collaboration and communication skills

    If you’re planning to hire machine learning developers who can deliver real-world impact.

    Future Outlook: Where ML Roles Are Headed Next

    Looking ahead, ML roles will continue to evolve toward:

    • greater specialization
    • tighter integration with business strategy
    • stronger focus on governance and ethics
    • increased collaboration with non-technical teams

    Companies that anticipate these changes will have a clear advantage.

    Conclusion: ML Success Depends on Hiring the Right Talent

    Machine learning is no longer a one-size-fits-all discipline.

    In 2026, ML success depends on understanding how roles differ across industries — and hiring accordingly. Organizations that adapt their hiring strategies to these evolving roles are the ones turning ML into a true competitive advantage.

    If your goal is to build reliable, scalable, and impactful ML systems, the smartest move you can make is to hire machine learning developers who understand both the technology and the sector you operate in.

    Because in today’s AI-driven economy, the right ML talent makes all the difference.


    How Machine Learning Roles Are Evolving Across Different Sectors was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

    Morning Update — 26 January 2026

    By: NordFX

    🌅 Morning Update — 26 January 2026

    📊 US markets (Friday close): Wall Street finished mixed. The S&P 500 edged slightly higher, the Nasdaq added a small gain, while the Dow slipped as traders stayed selective ahead of a busy macro week.

    🌏 Asia-Pacific: Most regional indices are under mild pressure this morning. The yen strengthened sharply, weighing on Japanese exporters and adding a defensive tone across the session.

    💱 FX: The US dollar is softer broadly, with markets focused on heightened volatility in USD/JPY and rising intervention risk chatter.

    🥇 Gold: Safe-haven demand remains front and centre — gold has pushed above $5,000, hitting fresh record territory amid geopolitical tension and risk-off flows.

    🛢️ Oil: Crude is holding near recent highs after last week’s bounce, as traders balance geopolitical risk premia against broader supply expectations.

    bitcoin: Crypto is choppy, with risk sentiment and the dollar’s moves continuing to drive short-term direction.

    🗓️ Economic Calendar of the Day (Mon, 26 Jan)
    🇩🇪 11:00 — Ifo Business Climate (Jan)
    🇩🇪 13:00 / 15:30 / 19:00 — Bundesbank Chairman Nagel Speaks
    🇺🇸 17:00 — Durable Goods Orders m/m (Nov)
    🇺🇸 17:00 — Durable Goods Orders ex-Transport m/m (Nov)

    🚀 Trade carefully today: volatility can spike around headlines and top-tier data. Follow NordFX for more updates and stay tuned.


    🌅 Morning Update — 26 January 2026 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

    Crypto Airdrop Scams in 2026: Real Examples & Red Flags

    By: MintonFin
    Crypto Airdrop Scams in 2026: Real Examples & Red Flags

    In 2026, crypto airdrop scams are no longer amateur phishing attempts — they are professionally engineered traps powered by AI, fake audits, cloned wallets, and social engineering that even experienced traders fall for.

    Every week, thousands of users lose wallets, NFTs, stablecoins, and long-term holdings — not because they were careless, but because airdrop scams now look legitimate.

    This guide breaks down:

    • Real airdrop scam examples
    • How modern airdrop scams actually work
    • Red flags most people still miss
    • A practical crypto airdrop scam prevention checklist
    • How to safely interact with real airdrops in 2026

    If you’ve ever searched:

    “Is this airdrop legit?”

    “How do crypto airdrop scams work?”

    “How to avoid fake airdrops?”

    This article is your answer.

    What Is a Crypto Airdrop Scam?

    A crypto airdrop scam is a fraudulent campaign that promises free tokens in exchange for wallet interaction, approvals, or signatures — with the goal of draining funds, stealing NFTs, or compromising wallet security.

    Unlike early phishing scams, modern airdrop scams often involve:

    • Fake smart contracts
    • Malicious token approvals
    • Wallet-draining signatures
    • Cloned websites and social profiles
    • AI-generated “community” activity

    Why Crypto Airdrop Scams Exploded in 2026

    Crypto airdrop scams didn’t just increase — they evolved.

    1. AI-Generated Legitimacy

    Scammers now use AI to:

    • Clone real project websites
    • Generate realistic whitepapers
    • Fake GitHub commits
    • Simulate Discord & X engagement

    Many scams now look more polished than real startups.

    2. Multi-Chain Complexity

    With Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Base, Sui, Aptos, and Layer 3s, users regularly:

    • Bridge assets
    • Sign cross-chain approvals
    • Interact with unfamiliar contracts

    Scammers exploit this confusion.

    3. Wallet Fatigue

    After years of DeFi, NFTs, and memecoins, users are:

    • Desensitized to signing messages
    • Overconfident in wallet security
    • Unaware of new approval-based exploits

    Real Crypto Airdrop Scam Examples (2025–2026)

    Example 1: The “Retroactive Reward” Scam

    Victims received messages claiming they qualified for a retroactive airdrop due to past DeFi activity.

    The trap:

    • Website cloned from a real Layer 2
    • Wallet connection required
    • “Claim” button triggered unlimited token approval

    Result: Wallet drained within seconds.

    Key lesson: Retroactive airdrops never require urgent action.

    Example 2: Fake Token Appears in Wallet

    Users suddenly saw a new token in their wallet labeled:

    “AIRDROP_ELIGIBLE”

    Clicking the token’s website link led to a fake claim portal.

    What happened:

    • Approval signature granted access to all ERC-20 tokens
    • NFTs transferred out instantly
    • Wallet labeled “compromised” afterward

    Key lesson: Never interact with unsolicited tokens.

    Example 3: Discord Moderator Impersonation

    Scammers impersonated admins in a real project’s Discord:

    • Same name
    • Same profile image
    • AI-generated chat history

    They shared a “private airdrop link” during high traffic events.

    Key lesson: Admins never DM airdrop links.

    Example 4: NFT Holder Airdrop Trap

    NFT holders were targeted with exclusive airdrops:

    • “Claim your holder reward”
    • “Limited-time distribution”

    The contract approval allowed:

    • NFT transfer permissions
    • ERC-20 draining

    Key lesson: NFT approvals are just as dangerous as token approvals.

    The Most Common Crypto Airdrop Scam Red Flags

    Red Flag #1: Urgency or Countdown Timers

    Legitimate airdrops don’t rush you.

    “Claim within 24 hours or lose eligibility” is a scam signal

    Red Flag #2: Wallet Approval Before Verification

    If you must approve tokens before seeing eligibility — walk away.

    Red Flag #3: Airdrop Links Shared in DMs

    Real projects:

    • Post on official blogs
    • Use verified X accounts
    • Pin announcements publicly

    Scammers use private messages.

    Red Flag #4: No Independent Mentions

    Search the airdrop name:

    • No GitHub?
    • No Medium post?
    • No reputable coverage?

    That silence is your warning.

    Red Flag #5: “Free” Tokens with No Tokenomics

    If there’s:

    • No supply details
    • No vesting
    • No utility explanation

    It’s bait.

    How Wallet Draining Airdrop Scams Actually Work

    This is what most people don’t understand.

    Step 1: Trust Setup

    Scammer builds legitimacy using:

    • Fake audits
    • Paid influencers
    • Bot-driven social proof

    Step 2: Wallet Interaction

    User connects wallet and signs:

    • Token approval
    • Permit signature
    • Blind message

    Step 3: Asset Extraction

    Assets are:

    • Transferred to multiple wallets
    • Bridged instantly
    • Mixed or swapped

    Step 4: Cleanup

    • Website disappears.
    • Discord wiped.
    • X account renamed.

    Crypto Airdrop Scam Prevention Checklist

    Before Connecting Your Wallet

    • Verify project on multiple platforms
    • Confirm contract address via official sources
    • Search “[project name] airdrop scam”

    Before Signing Anything

    • Read approval details
    • Avoid “unlimited” permissions
    • Reject blind signatures

    Wallet Hygiene Best Practices

    • Use a burner wallet for airdrops
    • Never use cold wallets for claims
    • Revoke permissions regularly

    After Any Interaction

    • Monitor wallet activity
    • Use approval trackers
    • Move funds if anything feels off

    Scammers rely on short memory and fast clicks. You rely on process.

    Save this post so you can run this checklist every time a new airdrop appears in your wallet.

    Best Tools to Detect Airdrop Scams in 2026

    While no tool is perfect, these help:

    • Wallet approval dashboards
    • Contract scanners
    • Browser wallet warnings

    Important: Tools are supplements — not substitutes for skepticism.

    Are Any Crypto Airdrops Still Legit?

    Yes — but they share common traits.

    Legit Airdrops Usually:

    • Are announced publicly
    • Don’t require urgency
    • Don’t request unlimited approvals
    • Are discussed openly by developers
    • Have clear tokenomics

    If an airdrop feels too generous, it probably is.

    Why Even Experienced Traders Fall for Airdrop Scams

    Because scammers exploit:

    • FOMO
    • Fatigue
    • Overconfidence
    • Familiar branding

    Experience doesn’t eliminate risk — process does.

    What To Do If You’ve Been Hit by an Airdrop Scam

    1. Revoke approvals immediately
    2. Move remaining assets
    3. Mark wallet as compromised
    4. Never reuse it
    5. Warn others publicly

    Staying Safe in an Era of Sophisticated Crypto Airdrop Scams

    In 2026, crypto airdrop scams are one of the largest wealth transfer mechanisms in the industry — from users to criminals.

    If you remember one thing, let it be this:

    A real airdrop will never pressure you, rush you, or require blind trust.

    Use the crypto airdrop scam prevention checklist, stay skeptical, and treat every “free token” as a potential threat.

    Your wallet doesn’t need more tokens — it needs better defenses.


    Crypto Airdrop Scams in 2026: Real Examples & Red Flags was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

    Variational : Why You Need To Farm It

    Variational: Why You Can’t Miss It

    With decentralized exchanges (DEXs) taking more and more mindshare from centralized exchanges (CEXs) in trading and spot volumes, competition in this sector is rapidly intensifying. Inspired by the success of Hyperliquid, most of these platforms are running points programs. This is the case for Variational, one of the most promising trading protocols to farm right now.

    What Is Variational ?

    Unlike other perp DEXs like Hyperliquid or Extended that use an order book, Variational uses a Request for Quote (RFQ) model, notably used by large over-the-counter (OTC) venues. This system consists of takers (traders) requesting quotes and makers (market makers) responding with bids and/or offers.

    In the case of Variational, the only market maker allowed is the Omni Liquidity Provider (OLP).

    Source : Variational Docs

    This model have various advantages :

    • Zero Fees : Since all market making on Omni is done by OLP instead of external market makers, Omni doesn’t need fees to generate revenue.
    • Complete control over revenues : A portion of the fees are directly red irected to users via various incentives.
    • Listing Variety : All OLP requires for a new listing is a reliable price feed, a quoting strategy, and a hedging mechanism. This manifests as around 500 tradable tokens on Omni !

    The team And Partners

    Variational was co-founded by Lucas Schuermann and Edward Yu, they have great experience in trading, having work with Genesis after their hedge fund (Qu Capital) was bought by Digital Currency Group (DCG) in 2019.

    Source : Variational docs

    They later left in 2021 to create their own proprietary trading firm after raising $10M. After two years, they decided to leverage their experience in trading and OTC exchanges to found the Variational protocol in 2023.

    Other team members include many crypto veterans in algorithmic trading, with past experience at major firms such as Google and Goldman Sachs.

    In June 2025, they raised an additional $1.5M in a strategic round.

    Important Metrics

    As mentioned in my previous article about perp DEXs, before farming a project I always analyze whether the opportunity cost is worth it. Let’s go through the key metrics one by one.

    Trading Volume

    It is important to note that at this time of year, volumes are down across nearly all perp DEXs.

    Srouce : DefiLlama

    Currently, the 24h trading volume is around $850M, placing Variational in the top 6 alongside major names such as Extended, Hyperliquid, and Lighter. Keep in mind that volume can be manipulated through wash trading, so it should not be used as a standalone indicator. For example, Aster ranks third, but farming its airdrop is not attractive.

    Open Interest

    Open interest represents the total value of active long and short contracts. It is a good indicator of project health, as it implies traders are holding positions for longer periods. Like any metric, it can be manipulated, so it should be evaluated alongside others.

    Currently, open interest is around $1.26B, placing Variational in the top 6 perp DEXs. One week earlier, when I started writing this article before the Lighter TGE, it stood at $441M.

    Source : DefiLlama

    TVL

    The current TVL is around $132M. While this may seem low compared to projects like Lighter or Extended, it is important to note that the OLP vault has not yet been opened.

    Source : Dune

    For comparison, roughly half of the TVL on Lighter and Extended is stored in their vaults. Based on this, it would be reasonable to expect a TVL of around $260M for Variational once the vault opens. Depending on yield attractiveness, this could attract significant capital.

    For a project still officially in private beta, this is already a strong TVL.

    Roadmap

    What users currently interact with is Omni, where retail traders can trade more than 480 tokens with a zero-fee model and up to 50x leverage on all pairs.

    The team also plans to launch Variational Pro, designed for advanced and institutional traders of OTC derivatives. This dual-product approach allows Variational to target both retail traders (via Omni) and institutional entities (via Pro).

    At the moment, the OLP vault is not open for public deposits. The team plans to launch it soon, allowing users to earn a share of Omni’s revenues. This is expected to be highly attractive, as Omni generates significant revenue due to the absence of external market makers.

    On the trading side, the team plans to expand beyond crypto into other markets such as stocks, and to support additional collateral types beyond USDC, enabling broader cross-margin functionality.

    There are many additional smaller features detailed in the documentation.

    The Token ($VAR) and Points Program

    There is limited information available about the token at this stage. The points season is expected to end no later than Q3 2026 and could conclude earlier depending on roadmap progress.

    Source

    We know that approximately 50% of the token supply will be allocated to the community through multiple incentive mechanisms, rather than a single airdrop. Additionally, the team plans to buy back tokens using at least 30% of protocol revenues.

    The points program launched three weeks ago, including a retroactive distribution of 3M points for users who traded before its launch. Going forward, 150,000 points will be distributed every Friday at 00:00 UTC, with snapshots taken every Thursday at 00:00 UTC.

    Start now with the best boosted code you can have, allowing you to have a 15% points boost and silver rank :

    https://omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNIPANDA

    I don’t have an affiliate code, so I gave you the one I use, which is the best one to start earning those precious points on Variational. If you want to support my work, a simple like is enough.

    For an estimate of point valuation, there is a strong analysis published by Points Goblin :

    My Personal Opinion and Strategy

    Following the Lighter TGE, there has been a rapid rotation toward newer perp DEXs such as Variational and Extended. This should not discourage farming these projects as long as the cost per point remains low.

    I personally faded Lighter in June when its TVL reached around $170M, assuming it was too late. That assessment was incorrect, as TVL later exceeded $1B

    Market conditions are currently pessimistic, with many participants sidelined. If hype returns, earning points will become significantly harder, while existing points are likely to increase in value.

    This is why I am currently trading on Variational, mainly farming funding via the FundingView app.

    Based on gathered information, points appear to be weighted more heavily toward :

    • Holding positions for multiple days
    • Trading low open-interest pairs
    • Trading newly listed pairs

    For additional insights, the following X accounts are worth following:

    • Points Goblin
    • Cllmax

    Docs : https://docs.variational.io/

    Discord : https://discord.gg/variational

    Twitter (X) : https://x.com/variational_io

    As always, thank you for reading !

    Follow me on medium

    Follow me on Twitter to get updates, alpha and much more !

    Disclaimer: This is not financial advice, you need to do your own research !


    Variational : Why You Need To Farm It was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.

    ❌