Prominent market analyst Michael Van de Poppe has shared four market conditions that would confirm an altcoin market rally. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continues to experience a widespread correction, weighing down the price growth of several assets.

Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin: A Positive Sign For Altcoins?

Ethereum has shown more resilience in the last month than Bitcoin, which is largely interpreted as a bullish signal for altcoin enthusiasts. In the last week alone, the prominent altcoin reported a slight market gain of 0.86% compared to Bitcoin’s loss of 1.95%. When Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin, it encourages increased altcoin activity, as investor confidence spreads beyond the market leader into the broader crypto ecosystem.

However, a full altcoin market takeover only comes into effect after the following technical developments. Firstly, de Poppe explains that Bitcoin, as the market leader, must achieve a breakthrough above $92,000 resistance, potentially testing the $100,000 mark, to signal renewed market strength. Additionally, the analyst states the ETH/BTC ratio must stay above its 20-day moving average (MA), indicating Ethereum’s continued dominance and further encouraging altcoin accumulation. Together, these signals could set the technical bedrock for a significant altcoin rally.

Macro Factors Could Amplify Altcoin Gains

Beyond crypto-specific indicators, de Poppe also touches on broader financial market plays that could initiate the next altcoin move. The analyst suggests that a 5-10% correction in gold prices, coupled with a peak in silver, could encourage capital to flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies including cryptocurrencies. 

Meanwhile, a strong upward movement in the Nasdaq would indicate increased investor risk appetite, a development that often translates into heightened activity in the crypto markets. When combined with positive momentum in Bitcoin and Ethereum, these macro signals could create an environment ripe for a substantial altcoin rally. According to de Poppe, the fulfillment of these conditions indicates that altcoins could achieve market gains of 200%-300% in the present market cycle.

Market Overview

At the time of writing, the total cryptocurrency market is valued at $3.04 trillion, following a significant 15.5% decline over the past month. Meanwhile, the altcoin market cap stands at $1.26 trillion, accounting for 41.44% of all circulating digital assets. In tandem, data from CoinMarketCap shows the altseason index at 20/100, as Bitcoin still maintains a dominant grip on overall market performance, with a 58.6% dominance.

In short, the conditions for a full-scale altcoin breakout have yet to materialize,  but the key indicators highlighted above suggest that scenario may be approaching if momentum shifts decisively toward risk assets.

Dogecoin has just celebrated its 12th anniversary, a milestone that arrives during a period of shaky price action. The meme coin has spent the majority of recent days trading with a bearish tone, but its anniversary places into perspective how much the crypto environment has changed since the token’s joke-related launch in 2013. 

The celebration comes as analysts continue to debate whether Dogecoin’s long accumulation structure is nearing a turning point, and its next breakout might define its 13th year.

A Milestone That Shows How Far Dogecoin Has Come

Dogecoin began as a lighthearted project by developer Billy Markus and Adobe sales employee Jackson Palmer in order to poke fun at the rising popularity of Bitcoin at the time. Over the years, what started as a joke has grown into one of the world’s most recognized cryptocurrencies. 

Happy birthday to Dogecoin.

12 years and going. pic.twitter.com/n9Qg6KtfQU

— dogegod (@_dogegod_) December 6, 2025

At its peak on May 8, 2021, DOGE reached an all-time high of $0.73 with a market capitalization nearing $88.7 billion. Today, despite the recent price action, Dogecoin is still among the top 10 cryptocurrencies, with a market value around $22.5 billion and trading near $0.14.

The 12th birthday of Dogecoin came at a time when broader market sentiment is weak and investors remain cautious. On its anniversary, Dogecoin dropped by 3.1%, steeper than the general market dip, due to ongoing pressure on meme coins.

Amidst this, some milestones still stand out. The introduction of a Spot Dogecoin ETF shows this transformation more vividly than anything else, because it shows major financial players now view the meme coin as an asset worthy of structured, regulated investment exposure. 

Although early participation has been modest, the token’s entry into ETF territory is much more symbolic, as it represents a profound departure from the ecosystem that shaped its early years, and this could lead the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs in the coming months. 

What The 12th Year Means For Dogecoin’s Future

Reaching 12 years isn’t just a symbolic milestone. It illustrates Dogecoin’s longevity in a crypto environment where many cryptocurrencies fade quickly. The fact that Dogecoin still holds a top-tier market position suggests resilience. That resilience is now being echoed on-chain, as some of the largest Dogecoin wallets have begun adding to their balances again after activity recently fell to a multi-month low.

There are rumors that the updated internal code of Tesla’s website contains deeper Dogecoin payment mechanisms for electric cars like the Model 3 and Cybertruck, which is possibly related to the announced XMoney payment system on the X platform. 

This naturally circles back to the influence of Elon Musk, whose support has shaped Dogecoin’s public profile for years. The billionaire has consistently kept Dogecoin in the mainstream conversation through social media posts, product references, and earlier acknowledgments of Dogecoin-related payments for Tesla merchandise.

As for Dogecoin’s price outlook, many analysts are staying bullish. Predictions and price targets for the meme coin range from $0.75, to $1.30, with some pointing to ranges as high as $10.  

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The latest market conditions have pushed hopes of an altcoin season even further out of reach. Bitcoin continues to dominate the market with a 59.6% share, and its recent struggle to hold bullish momentum has not translated into any meaningful boost for altcoins. 

Broader sentiment has weakened as well, with the CMC Altcoin Season Index registering just 20, which still places the entire market in a Bitcoin-favored phase. Meanwhile, a critical indication has been detected from on-chain data that suggests this may be a rare moment to accumulate strong altcoin positions before conditions eventually turn.

Altcoins Stay Subdued As Market Sentiment Worsens

Altcoin performance has really been lagging behind Bitcoin throughout this year, and the persistent weakness is now being reflected across multiple market indicators. Bitcoin’s dominance has only increased, meaning the capital rotation that typically sparks an altcoin season has yet to begin. 

The wait for an altcoin breakout has now stretched far longer than many anticipated. Even as the Bitcoin price is struggling, traders have not redirected liquidity toward altcoins. The leading cryptocurrency is now down by 28.9% from its October all-time high of $126,080. Instead, altcoins have also stayed muted, and their combined market cap shows no signs of outperforming the leading cryptocurrency. 

Data from CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index shows the reading is currently at 20. The low reading shows that altcoins are still losing ground relative to Bitcoin. To put this into context, the index was at a reading of 83 this time last year. 

The sentiment is also evident in CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index, which is now at 22. Readings this low signal hesitation across the market, as investors shy away from taking new positions, and this environment makes an altcoin season much harder to materialize.

CryptoQuant Data Signals A High-Value Accumulation Window

Technical analysis using data from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that altcoin traders may be entering another window that has frequently been favorable for accumulation. The data compares the 30-day trading volume of altcoins against their yearly average and finds that current volumes have slipped back below that long-term line. 

Each time this pattern has appeared in past cycles, it marked a period when activity was unusually quiet and traders were hesitant, but it also tended to show up just before the market picked up again.

According to the analysis, this drop in volume can be called a “buying zone,” which is a phase where dollar-cost averaging into selective altcoins has often paid off over time. These low-volume stretches can last for weeks or even months, giving investors enough room to build their positions gradually.

The message from the data is that this calmer part of the cycle may offer one of the better chances to position ahead of the next broader market move.

Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s (BTC) ongoing price correction has been accompanied by several other negative developments that continue to grab investors’ attention. Most recently, market analyst Darkfost has observed a significant crash in Bitcoin spot trading volume, while highlighting potential long-term implications of such an event.

Binance Records $40B Loss In BTC Monthly Spot Trading 

The spot trading volume refers to the total amount of Bitcoin that is bought and sold for immediate delivery on exchanges within a specific time period. It is a key market indicator used to gauge participation, liquidity, and investor interest. According to Darkfost in an X post on December 6, the Bitcoin market, in November, experienced a major fall in spot trading volume across major crypto exchanges. This development has been attributed to the asset’s price struggles, wherein it recorded a 17.5% devaluation during this period.

On Binance, which accounts for more than half of all Bitcoin spot trading activity, spot volume fell from $198 billion in October to $156 billion in November, representing a 21% decline. The downturn was mirrored across other major exchanges, with ByBit posting a 13.5% drop, Gate.io sliding 33%, and OKX down 18%.

 

Interestingly, Darkfost explains that Bitcoin’s recent price action, the major negative catalyst, pales in comparison to previous corrections. However, another red reading in December could initiate a market deterioration marked by conditions such as continued selling pressure, low market confidence, and, importantly, further drops in spot activity.

A continuous decline in spot trading volume primarily mirrors a lack of market interest and is accompanied by other concerning factors, such as a weaker demand, high vulnerability to price swings, and limited support for rallies as investors prefer to sit on the sidelines. This dynamic, in turn, weighs on price growth, creating a self-reinforcing bearish loop.

Spot Trading Volume Peak Sees Consistent Regression 

In related news, Darkfost also reports that the present market cycle has featured a consistent decline in spot trading volume peaks. Notably, the chart above shows a market high of $333.57 billion on Binance in March 2024, followed by the lower peak of $246.04 billion in November 2024, and then just $198.6 billion last October.

This trend becomes even more concerning when looking at the spot-to-futures volume ratio, which currently sits at 0.23, meaning futures activity now accounts for more than 75% of overall trading. In essence, while the Bitcoin market remains active, investor enthusiasm on the spot side is fading. By contrast, traders appear increasingly willing to speculate in the futures market, likely driven by elevated uncertainty and short-term volatility.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $89,300, reflecting a 0.21% loss in the past day.

Following a fresh wave of bearish pressure on Friday, December 5, the price of Bitcoin has struggled beneath the psychological 90,000 level for much of the weekend. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the premier cryptocurrency might be readying for its next healthy upward move.

BTC SOPR Drops To Lowest Level Since Early 2024

In a December 6 post on the X platform, CryptoOnchain hypothesized that a local bottom appears to be forming for the price of Bitcoin. According to the market pundit, the selling pressure, especially amongst long-term holders, seems to be fading off at the moment.

This market observation centers on the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which evaluates the profitability ratio of spent outputs for both long-term and short-term holders. This on-chain indicator evaluates whether market participants are selling their assets at a profit or at a loss.

Typically, when the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio has a value greater than 1, it indicates that the investors are selling at a profit. On the flip side, an SOPR value less than 1 implies that the market participants are offloading their coins while in the red.

According to CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin SOPR has now fallen to 1.35, its lowest level since early 2024. The market analyst noted that this metric’s latest movement suggests a complete reset in market profitability, especially as the price of BTC slid beneath the $90,000 mark.

Furthermore, CryptoOnchain highlighted that the heavy profit-taking phase by long-term holders appears to be coming to an end, as exhaustion and fatigue increasingly spread among the bears. From a historical perspective, the SOPR metric falling to this low signals a local bottom is forming for the BTC price, especially as the market cools down.

Ultimately, CryptoOnchain revealed that a price rebound at this point could set the stage for Bitcoin’s next healthy upward rally. 

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,500, reflecting no significant changes in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the flagship cryptocurrency is down by nearly 2% in the last seven days. 

With the price of Bitcoin down year-to-date and from its all-time high of $126,080 by roughly 5% and 30%, respectively, the market leader looks set to end 2025 in the red—barring a sudden change in market momentum.

The Bitcoin market appears to be riddled with an increasing amount of sell-side pressure, as its recent price action reveals bears’ dominance. Interestingly, another on-chain evaluation suggests that the current market movement may be a direct effect of rising panic-induced sales. 

$1.7B Realized Losses Vs $605M Realized Gains

In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, GugaOnChain shared that the Bitcoin market has been in a capitulation phase in recent days. This on-chain observation revolves around the Bitcoin Realized Profit and Loss ($) metric.

For context, this metric tracks the actual profits (in US dollars) and losses investors realize—or lock in—whenever they offload their Bitcoin holdings to exchanges. 

GugaOnChain highlighted that about $1.705 billion worth of BTC has been realized in losses by market participants. On the other hand, a relatively smaller amount, totaling approximately $605 million, was reportedly realized in gains.

Source: CryptoOnchainThis disproportionate distribution in losses, as against the profits acquired, puts the Loss/Gain ratio at a 2.82 reading. This means that, for every dollar made in profit, almost 3 dollars are lost. 

Looking at the bigger picture, the analyst pointed out that 74% of the total realized volume leans towards the red side of the market, leaving a mere 26% of the Bitcoin market in profits. When realized losses surge rapidly to overcome gains, it is often interpreted as a sign of capitulation.

Historically, extreme capitulation events tend to set the pace either for price recovery or even deeper downside movement. These two possibilities, however, remain dependent on the integrity of available inflection points. 

Bulls Must Defend These Price Levels Or Risk Deeper Corrections

Although the market odds currently seem stacked against the bulls, as the price takes on a bearish structure, the analyst also identified a few important zones that may determine Bitcoin’s next direction. GugaOnChain explained that, in the scenario where the bulls continue to bleed, the next price level presenting an opportunity of redemption lies around $71,450.

This specific price level is critical, as it represents the realized price for investors who have acquired Bitcoin for about 12–18 months. 

Citing a more extreme scenario, the online pundit revealed that the next key support sits at $58,940. This zone is important as it is the realized price for investors whose coins are within the 18-month to 2-year age range.  

On the weekly timeframe, however, price zones around $80,000 and $74,000 appear significant enough for a short-term price recovery. A bullish reversal could take place if these price levels were to meet the present downturn with significant opposing strength. 

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $89,331, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. 

 

Bitcoin finds itself at a critical crossroads, hovering between two major price zones that could define its next big move. Buyers and sellers are locked in a tight battle, and the market now waits for a decisive break. A push above key resistance could open the door to $107,000, while weakness at support risks a deeper slide toward $71,000.

Bounce Scenario: A Return Toward The Pink Box And Descending Trendline

Kamile Uray, in her latest update on Bitcoin, noted that BTC failed to hold above the $90,720 level on the hourly chart, triggering the expected decline. The first immediate support now sits at $87,644, while the deeper support range lies between $83,822 and $82,477. If buyers defend this zone successfully, Bitcoin could attempt another climb toward the pink box region and retest the descending trendline overhead.

Uray explained that a sustained move above the pink box resistance on the daily timeframe would open the door for Bitcoin to challenge the descending blue trendline. A confirmed breakout from this area could strengthen bullish momentum, pushing the price toward the next major resistance levels at $98,200 and $107,500. A break above $107,500 alongside the descending trendline would serve as a strong signal that the broader uptrend is ready to continue.

However, she warned that a daily close below $82,477 would shift the market structure toward further weakness, placing Bitcoin at risk of revisiting lower levels. Even so, Uray highlighted one critical area of strength: the $74,496–$71,237 zone. This region represents the key breakout top from November 2024 and is considered a strong historical support. In this area, buyers may step in aggressively, potentially setting the stage for an upward reversal.

Bitcoin Price Rejection At $93,000–$95,000 Zone

According to Crypto Candy, Bitcoin’s latest price action has been unfolding precisely in line with expectations. After facing rejection in the $93,000–$95,000 resistance zone, BTC dipped sharply and nearly touched the anticipated support range at $86,000–$87,500. This move reflects the broader market’s reaction to heavy selling pressure near the upper resistance band.

Crypto Candy emphasized that the $86,000–$87,500 zone now serves as a crucial pivot area. If buyers successfully defend this support and the price stabilizes above it, Bitcoin could once again revisit the $93,000–$95,000 range, or even push beyond it.

Such a rebound would signal renewed bullish momentum and set the stage for another attempt at breaking higher resistance levels. However, the analyst also warned that failure to hold the $86,000–$87,500 support could trigger deeper downside movement. If the level gives way, Bitcoin may slide to lower price zones in the coming days as bearish pressure strengthens.

Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, says ultra-wealthy families are rapidly accumulating XRP, and he believes most XRP holders still don’t realize how rare their position is. In a video posted on X, Claver revealed that his firm has been in recent conversations with large family offices that are now making significant allocations into XRP. 

His comments arrive at a moment when XRP’s long-term narrative is witnessing increased interest due to ETFs, and they highlight a shift happening among investors who have always avoided cryptocurrencies altogether.

Wealthy Families Quietly Accumulating XRP

Claver explained that XRP ownership is currently extremely limited relative to the global population, noting that only around 8 million wallets exist on the XRPL. Half of those wallets contain fewer than 100 XRP, which makes existing holders far more uncommon than they may think. He contrasted this with Bitcoin’s widespread ownership, arguing that XRP is still early in its adoption curve.

He said the wealthy families showing interest are not looking for quick profits. According to him, they have already built their fortunes and instead see XRP as a form of insurance. According to his post, these families are buying crypto, not to get richer, but to protect the wealth they already have. 

He described their interest in cryptocurrencies as a hedge. These investors want something uncorrelated in their portfolios ahead of any potential shock in traditional markets.

Claver’s $10K Price Target And The Conditions He Outlined

When asked where he sees the price of XRP going, Claver stated that he believes the cryptocurrency could be trading at $10,000 by late 2026 or early 2027. He tied this prediction to how much ecosystem infrastructure becomes active on the XRPL over the next two years. 

He said the network would need substantial institutional-grade utilities, including XRP treasury systems, Evernorth’s launch, on-chain borrowing mechanisms, and new amendments to the XRP Ledger that will bring in additional compliance layers and smart-contract features.

His projection assumes that rising network volume will require higher liquidity levels and that price stability at four- and five-figure ranges will only be achievable if the ledger is handling large-scale financial flows. He also pointed to ETFs as a major factor in shaping supply and demand, noting that as ETF adoption grows, more XRP will be locked away in long-term institutional products. 

Speaking of ETFs, Spot XRP ETFs are now approaching $1 billion in total net assets and could cross that threshold within the next few days. Since their debut, these funds have taken in about $897.35 million worth of XRP from exchanges and OTC desks, and they have yet to record a single day of outflows. 

This growing demand ties directly into a quiet change happening among institutions, a trend Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently highlighted. He explained that Ripple is seeing notable activity through Ripple Prime, where long-watching institutions that once stayed out due to regulatory uncertainty or simple risk aversion are finally beginning to step in. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Ethereum is gaining momentum, and several technical signals suggest that a significant move could be on the way. With key support levels holding and bullish patterns forming, the market may be setting up for a notable upside.

Golden Pocket Rejection: Confirming The High-Risk Scenario

In a recent update on X, analyst Luca referenced his recent market commentary, noting that Ethereum price action unfolded exactly as he had anticipated, with the price tapping into the lost high-timeframe support range. This range aligned with the golden pocket between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, and the price rejected there, confirming the high-risk scenario he had highlighted in advance.

Since that rejection, the price has broken below the key 0.618 Fibonacci Point of Interest (POI). However, the asset is still managing to hold above the crucial 1-Day Bull Market Support Band. Luca stressed that this band has historically served as a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months. Thus, he believes the current low-timeframe market structure is not yet fully invalidated.

Despite this technical hold, the analyst reiterated his cautious approach, stating that until he sees clear signs of strength on the low-timeframes, signs that can durably confirm the bottom is in and that key support levels are properly reclaimed, he won’t scale out of his edges.

Luca concluded that until that concrete bullish confirmation materializes, the most likely outcome for the immediate future remains further consolidation. The market needs time to absorb the recent volatility and build a new base before a more durable reversal to the upside can take hold.

ETH/BTC Trendline Breakout: Market Risk Appetite Returns

Crypto analyst Paramatik outlined that a major structural event has occurred on the ETH/BTC charts: a falling trend breakout. This is a highly significant development, although Paramatik suggests that a retest of this broken trendline may occur before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

The analyst provided clarity on what this breakout means for the broader market. First and foremost, this situation is interpreted as a strengthening signal for Ethereum. When ETH begins to gain value relative to Bitcoin, it typically indicates that the market’s overall risk appetite is returning, as investors shift capital from BTC to ETH.

Secondly, the gained strength in Ethereum is often the key trigger for the start of the much-anticipated altcoin season. This is because investors first shift funds from BTC to ETH, and then move capital into the riskier, smaller altcoins in hopes of achieving higher returns.

Paramatik summarized his findings by stating that this breakout in the ETH/BTC pair is not merely a technical line break; it is a harbinger of a market direction change. The analyst concluded with an analogy that the market has reached a state where every external event, even humorously irrelevant ones, could affect crypto prices.

Dogecoin has been bleeding lower in recent days, grinding back toward the mid-$0.13 band. Sellers have been in control of most candles in the past 24 hours, and each attempt at a rebound has faded quickly, leaving Dogecoin stuck near the bottom of a range.

One crypto analyst on X has focused attention on an important technical level on the 2-day chart. Even though price action looks weak, Dogecoin is now sitting right on a long-term support zone inside a descending triangle pattern, and this area could become the launchpad for a strong upside move if buyers react from here. The chart shared with the analysis highlights exactly where Dogecoin is resting and why this region matters.

Dogecoin Sitting On Major Descending Triangle

Technical analysis of Dogecoin’s price action on the 2-day candlestick timeframe chart shows the meme coin has been trading in a clear descending triangle since December 2024. A downward-sloping trendline has capped every rally this year, leading to the creation of a series of lower highs that reflect persistent selling pressure throughout the year. At the same time, a horizontal support zone underneath in the mid-$0.135 to $0.14 region has caught multiple drops and prevented a deeper breakdown.

Right now, Dogecoin is pressing that lower border again. The candles on the 2-day chart cluster just above the dashed support band, and the analyst, who goes by Butterfly on X, circled this cluster in green to show how closely the price is hugging the level. 

Each prior visit to this zone has produced at least a temporary bounce, which is why the current test is notable. The price action is tightening, and there is less room left for sideways movement before a decisive break happens.

Dogecoin Is “Ready To Fly”

In the post on X, the analyst notes that this support has been “respected multiple times” and that bulls are “getting ready to step in.” The most important thing is for the lower support to hold again, and the descending triangle may flip from a slow grind lower into a springboard for a strong reaction.

A firm defense of this zone would mean that sellers are running out of momentum at these prices. From there, even a modest wave of buying could drive Dogecoin back toward the descending resistance line that cuts across the chart from the $0.25 to $0.26 area. A break and close above that trendline would mark the first clean higher high in months and would confirm that the triangle has resolved to the upside.

The analyst’s green arrow on the chart sketches out this potential path. The path shows Dogecoin lifting from the current support band, breaking above resistance, and reaching as high as $0.4 in one swift move.

In a not-so-surprising turn of events, the bearish orientation of the Bitcoin price has continued into the month of December, suggesting that the premier cryptocurrency could end the year in the red. Interestingly, recent on-chain data has offered insights into the likely direction of Bitcoin based on the integrity of an important price level.

Active Market Participants’ Cost Basis At $82,000

In a December 5 post on the X platform, market analyst Burak Kesmeci shared an interesting outlook on the direction of the Bitcoin price. 

The analyst disclosed that whatever happens around the $82,000 mark could make or mar Bitcoin’s trajectory in the near term. To demonstrate why this price region is so important, Kesmeci pointed out that it appears to be the convergence point of two highly influential cost bases in Bitcoin’s history. 

Kesmeci revealed that the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds have an average purchase cost of approximately $82,000. Because ETFs are one of Bitcoin’s strongest demand sources, tracking the values of their average cost-basis could serve as a good means to tell where the market stands institutionally.

The crypto pundit also referenced the Bitcoin True Market Mean metric, which monitors the cost at which active investors procured their holdings—except for mined or rarely-moved BTC. Notably, in the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s active participants mostly purchased their coins around a valuation of $82,000. 

What Happens If $82,000 Fails? 

Usually, when price slips beneath any major price support, there is, in turn, an increase in overall selling pressure, as buy-side liquidity is converted to bearish momentum via losses incurred by investors. Hence, in the scenario where $82,000 fails to hold, a wave of bearish pressure is expected to ensue, as Bitcoin’s active investors try to cut their losses. 

However, Kesmeci expects something even more specific to follow. According to historical data, whenever Bitcoin falls beneath its active market participant cost basis, it often falls further downwards, as though it is targeting its Realized Price.

At the moment, the Bitcoin Realized Price sits near $56,000 — a price level significantly beneath its investors’ average cost basis. Kesmeci therefore warned that a slip beneath $82,000 could precede Bitcoin’s sharp downturn towards $56,000.

This would represent an almost 40% decline from the current price point. As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,310, reflecting an over 3% dip in the past 24 hours. 

Two long-dormant Casascius coins, each loaded with 1,000 Bitcoin, were activated on Friday, unlocking more than $179 million that had sat untouched for over 13 years.

According to onchain data, one of the coins was minted in October 2012 when Bitcoin traded at $11.69. The other dates back to December 2011, when BTC was worth $3.88, giving that piece a theoretical gain near 2.3 million% since minting.

Historic Physical Coins Activated

Based on reports, Casascius coins (metal coins) were produced between 2011 and 2013 by Utah entrepreneur Mike Caldwell as physical representations of Bitcoin. Each coin or bar concealed a paper with a private key, and a tamper-resistant hologram covered that key.

Two Casascius coins, each containing 1,000 BTC, have just moved after being dormant for more than 13 years. pic.twitter.com/nlFUy39MkD

— Sani | TimechainIndex.com (@SaniExp) December 5, 2025

Records show only 16 of the 1,000 BTC bars and 6 of the 1,000 BTC coins were ever made, making these items both rare and historically important.

Caldwell shut down the operation after receiving a letter from FinCEN that raised questions about whether his business qualified as an unlicensed money transmitter.

How The Coins Worked

The mechanism was simple in practice but strict in outcome: whoever removed the hologram and revealed the private key could claim the full Bitcoin value stored beneath it.

Once that sticker was lifted and the private key used, the coin no longer carried any Bitcoin value. Based on reports, collectors treat that moment as irreversible. Some owners chose to move funds off the physical coins without cashing out.

Rarity And Returns

Numbers here show why collectors and investors watch these events closely. Two coins at 1,000 BTC each represent a huge hoard when prices are high. Even leaving aside the cost of minting, the December 2011 coin’s rise from $3.88 to current market valuations yields a headline-grabbing multiple.

But experts warn that turning the private key into spendable Bitcoin is only the first step; what happens next depends on the holder’s choices. Some will hold. Others may move funds into cold storage. Selling is not guaranteed.

Derivatives Market Shock

Meanwhile, the spot and derivatives markets are experiencing high volatility. Based on CoinGlass data, today’s derivatives activity showed an 11,588% liquidation imbalance that overwhelmingly wiped out long positions.

Bitcoin, at the time of writing, was trading below $90,000, and more than $20 million in BTC long liquidations occurred in minutes while short positions barely budged. That kind of one-sided pressure happens when many traders are crowded in the same direction and conditions change quickly.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Industry leader Tom Lee has shared how the Ethereum price could reach $12,000 within the next few months. He based his prediction on the Bitcoin price action and how ETH could match the flagship crypto on a potential run to the upside. 

Tom Lee Explains How The Ethereum Price Could Rally To $12,000

Speaking at the Binance Blockchain Week, Tom Lee predicted that the Ethereum price could reach $12,000 as Bitcoin rallies to $250,000 within the next few months. He explained that ETH can reach the $12,000 target if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to its eight-year average of 0.0479. Lee described this potential rally to $12,000 as a “huge move.”

Tom Lee further predicted that the Ethereum price could reach $22,000 if the ETH/BTC ratio gets to its 2021 high of 0.0873. He added that he believes Ethereum will become the future of finance and the payment rails. As such, Lee predicted that the ETH/BTC ratio could reach 0.2500, sparking an Ethereum rally to as high as $62,500. In line with this, the expert declared that ETH at $3,000 is “grossly undervalued.”

Tom Lee also remarked that the bigger the base, the bigger the breakout for the Ethereum price. He noted that ETH spent years building a similar base to its current price action before the move from $90 to its previous all-time high (ATH) of $4,866. The expert added that if the pattern plays out again, the next leg could be larger than what people expect. 

It is worth noting that Tom Lee is the chairman of BitMine, which is the largest Ethereum treasury company. According to Strategic ETH Reserve data, the company currently holds 3.73 million ETH, which is just over 3% of the altcoin’s total supply. Lee remains bullish on the Ethereum price, despite his company holding an unrealized loss of $3.3 billion of their ETH investment. 

A Rally To $62,000 Is “Ambitious”

Market commentator Milk Road described Tom Lee’s Ethereum price prediction of $62,000 in a few months as being ambitious. The platform stated that an ETH/BTC ratio of 0.25 has never happened. The highest it has ever gone is 0.15, and that was during the 2017 supercycle, which makes it less likely now, given that market conditions have changed. 

Tom Lee had based his Ethereum prediction on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, which Milk Road also described as an issue. The market commentator noted that BTC would need to surge 177% from current prices to reach this target. The last time this happened was in 2020 when it surged from $7,000 to $19,000 during the “peak mania.” Notably, BTC didn’t record a 100% gain even when the Bitcoin ETFs launched last year. 

At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $3,000, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The Bitcoin price has had a mixed performance over the past week, with both sides of the market divide struggling to establish dominance. In the latest battle between the bulls and bears, the premier cryptocurrency appears to be succumbing to pressure from the latter group.

As this weekend approached, the Bitcoin price retreated from its latest local high of around $94,000 to beneath the psychological $90,000 level. This latest correction has prompted questions in the crowd, with investors wondering whether it is just a brief obstacle or the end of the recovery.

Why $80,500 Could Be The Next Local Low For BTC

In a December 5 post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder shared insight into the latest Bitcoin price decline below $90,000. The on-chain expert revealed that losing the $89,800 level is the more relevant occurrence in the latest price downturn.

In a previous post on X, Wedson evaluated the likely trajectory of the Bitcoin price should it lose the $89,800 level. The crypto pundit revealed that losing this price mark could lead to an accumulation pattern for the bulls or a redistribution phase for the bears.

While the accumulation period for the bulls would initially coincide with lower prices, it eventually leads to a Bitcoin price return to above the latest local high. Meanwhile, a redistribution phase could see the bears push the flagship cryptocurrency to around the $70,000 mark.

According to the Alphractal CEO, the price of BTC also failed to hold the key on-chain levels, strengthening the probability of a broader price sideways phase. “Sideways action is the cause — the big pumps or dumps are just the effect,” Wedson had earlier stated in his previous X post.

Furthermore, Wedson noted that the next level to watch is $86,500, which, if lost, opens the very high possibility for the formation of a new local low around $80,500. This local low could provide a perfect spot for investors to buy the dip and enter the market.

Bitcoin Price Overview 

As mentioned earlier, the past week has been one of highs and lows for the premier cryptocurrency, plummeting to as low as $84,600 on Monday, December 1. After a shaky start to the month, the Bitcoin price recovered strongly to around $94,000 on Thursday, December 4.

As of this writing, the market leader is valued at around $89,415, reflecting an over 3% price decline in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of Bitcoin has been down by nearly 10% in the past year.

A crypto analyst has made an unexpected declaration, predicting that XRP investors could become extremely rich in just a few months. This bold claim comes with a new technical analysis, suggesting that XRP is now entering a pivotal price area that previously triggered explosive rallies. Despite the cryptocurrency’s low price and recent downtrend, the analyst remains confident that XRP could mirror past trends and skyrocket to new highs.

XRP To Make Holders Wealthy In 3 Months?

In a recent X post, popular market analyst ‘Steph Is Crypto’ issued a dramatic warning to XRP holders, announcing that investors will become extremely rich within the next three months. The analyst’s bold prediction elicited mixed reactions from the XRP community, with some expressing optimism and others skepticism. 

Steph Is Crypto shared a price chart with colored bands to support his ambitious claims, tracking XRP’s performance through multiple past bull cycles. The chart highlights a recurring pattern in which XRP enters a higher-colored zone during periods often associated with altcoin strength. In previous cycles, those moments were followed by unexpected, explosive upward price moves. 

During the bull cycle in 2018, XRP skyrocketed by 100x, pushing its price up towards its current all-time high of $3.84. A similar uptrend occurred again during the 2020 to 2022 cycle, with XRP entering a prolonged bull phase that saw its price rally by 20x. According to Steph Is Crypto, the current chart setup appears similar to these past bullish phases. 

His chart analysis suggests that XRP is once again approaching the same colored region that previously marked the start of strong price rallies. While the scale of the projected acceleration this time may differ from the peaks seen in the last two cycles, Steph Is Crypto remains confident that it will still be substantial enough to make holders significantly wealthy by March 2026.

XRP Maintains Bullish Monthly SuperTrend

Crypto market analyst ChartNerd has released a fresh technical analysis of XRP, suggesting that the cryptocurrency continues to show strong positive signals. According to him, XRP’s monthly SuperTrend remains firmly bullish. He emphasized that maintaining a price above the green SuperTrend line near $1.30 signals a long-term upward trajectory, with no red trends currently indicating the onset of a bear market. 

ChartNerd shared a chart with a SuperTrend overlay where green lines represent bullish conditions and red lines highlight previous bear markets. The current monthly candles for XRP remain well above the green zone, reinforcing the belief that broader market conditions favor an upside. The analyst interprets this as confirmation that XRP’s long-term price trend is still predominantly bullish. 

Historical data on the chart also indicate that past declines in XRP coincided with prolonged red SuperTrend phases. This happened before the big 2017 and 2020 breakout, with each recovery triggered once the price moved back above the green SuperTrend line. 

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) trades just below $90,000 after a fluctuating week of price action resulted in a net loss of 1.8%. Despite initial hopes of a resurgence in late November, the premier cryptocurrency is now 29.16% away from its all-time high. Going by the price action, popular analyst with the X username PlanD postulates BTC is now in consolidation guided by two major price levels.

Bitcoin Moves In Key Range Between $85,000-$93,000, Market Breakout Awaits

In an X post on December 5, PlanD provides an update on a continued analysis of the Bitcoin market, stating the crypto market leader appears to be building momentum within a set price range. Notably, recent price action has pushed the flagship cryptocurrency below the lower boundary of a broadening ascending channel between $93,000 and $131,000, raising fears of a bear market. However, Bitcoin has repeatedly rebounded, forming a strong consolidation range between $85,400 and $93,000. PlanD defines the present market condition as Bitcoin being in a decision zone and needing a price breakout to determine its next major direction. The analyst states that if Bitcoin moves to overcome the price resistance at $93,000, its initial price target lies at $100,000. A successful reclaim of this psychological six-figure level would confirm renewed bullish intent and stronger potential for a full market revival.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks below the vital support zone at $85,300, investors should expect steeper losses. In this case, PlanD projects a price drop to around $72,000, representing a potential 19% decline from present market prices. Notably, considering the recent market volatility, the ongoing consolidation may close out sooner than expected, to establish a clear market direction.

Bitcoin Price Overview

According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin trades at $89,703, reflecting a price loss of 2.99%. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is up by 4.56% and valued at $63.16 billion.

Following the turbulent price action of the last week, BTC’s price struggles in Q4 continue against previous popular predictions. Still, several bullish indicators could support a rebound before year-end. Key catalysts include a widely anticipated interest rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 9–10.

In addition, market sentiment is benefiting from speculation that pro-crypto economist Kevin Hassett could succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in 2026.

According to a press release from Consob on December 4, 2025, Italy’s securities regulator told crypto and virtual asset service providers (VASPs) that they must secure authorization under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets regime (MiCA) by December 30, 2025, or stop serving Italian clients.

The notice warns operators that those who do not file for a MiCA-compliant license must close out services and return customer funds by the year-end.

Consob’s Deadline And What It Means For Firms

Based on reports, companies that submit an authorization application by the cutoff may keep operating while the application is under review. But that temporary permission will not last beyond June 30, 2026, regulators say. That window gives providers some breathing room, but it also sets a hard date for final approvals.

The regulator singled out platforms that until now have worked under Italy’s lighter national registry system (OAM). Those businesses now face a choice: apply to become fully authorized crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) under MiCA or plan an orderly exit. Operators who plan to leave must notify users clearly and return assets in a safe, verifiable way.

Italy Opens A Broader Risk Review

According to a Reuters report, Italy’s Economy Ministry has also ordered an in-depth review of crypto risks, bringing together the Bank of Italy, Consob and other agencies to check whether current protections are strong enough for investors and the wider financial system. The move came during a committee meeting that flagged rising exposure and the need to monitor spillovers into traditional finance.

What Investors Should Watch For Next

Customers in Italy should confirm whether their chosen platform has lodged a MiCA application or has made clear plans for compliance or exit. If an operator fails to apply by December 30, users could face service interruptions and will need to follow the provider’s instructions for fund returns. Regulators say transparency from firms will be key in the weeks ahead.

Smaller local platforms may find the compliance burden steep. Some operators could seek licenses in other EU states and use passporting rules to serve Italian clients, while others may shut down or merge.

The provisional operating window stretches into mid-2026, but the final shape of the market will depend on how quickly firms meet the tougher requirements and how long authorizations take to process.

Consob’s notice is meant to cut through uncertainty and force a choice before year-end. The combination of a firm deadline, mandatory filings and a parallel review marks a stricter approach to crypto oversight in Italy.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin market continues to experience high levels of investor uncertainty, as indicated by the unstable price action of the past week. In the last month alone, the leading cryptocurrency has lost about 14% of its value, strengthening fears of an impending bear market. Notably, renowned market expert Ali Martinez has shared some insight on this speculation, highlighting a key technical development that historically precedes an extended downtrend.

Bitcoin Winter Phase To Start Only When Price Loses 730-Day SMA – Analyst 

In an X post on Friday, Martinez presents an on-chain analysis that identifies a key price zone for determining Bitcoin’s price trajectory amid current market volatility. Using data from the Bitcoin Investor Tool metric from Glassnode, the analyst has discovered that extended downtrends in Bitcoin often start once the price falls below its 730-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a level currently sitting at $82,150. For context, the chart below shows that the 730-day SMA (green), an important long-term indicator, has historically acted as a structural support level during major market cycles. When Bitcoin decisively loses this line, momentum tends to shift, leading to deeper corrections and lengthier bearish periods as seen between 2015-2016, 2019, and 2022-2023.

However, the chart also presents some bullish insights. Larger cyclical metrics, including the 730-day SMA × 5 band (pink) sitting at $410,771, remain well above the current price, indicating that macro overvaluation is not yet a concern, as the leading cryptocurrency remains far from an overheated zone. According to Ali Martinez, as long as Bitcoin holds above $82,150, the potential for any prolonged downtrend synonymous with a bear market remains minimal, ensuring the bull structure remains intact.

Bitcoin Weekly Net Outflows Hit $800M As Accumulation Rises

In other developments, on-chain analytics firm Sentora reports that the Bitcoin market recorded an $805 million increase in weekly exchange net outflows, indicating that a significant portion of market investors are unfazed by the recent price correction. Instead, they are opting to transfer more of their investment off crypto exchanges, suggesting an intention to hold in anticipation of future price appreciation. Meanwhile, total Bitcoin network fees reached $1.96 million, representing a 7.69% gain from the previous week and indicating an increase in transactions and network activity during this period. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,693 following a 2.71% price decline in the last 24 hours.

Coinbase (COIN), the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the US, has experienced a significant decline in its stock valuation, dropping nearly 40% from its peak of $444 in July to its current trading level of around $271 per share. This, amid market fluctuations and heightened volatility in the broader crypto market, impacting the exchange’s stock performance.

Bernstein Forecasts New Bullish Phase For Coinbase

Despite these challenges, analysts at Bernstein hold an optimistic outlook on Coinbase’s stock price, suggesting a potential new bullish phase that could propel COIN to surpass previous all-time highs and reach levels above $500. 

Bernstein maintains a price target of $510 on Coinbase, underlining the exchange’s shift from a trading-centric platform to what analysts dub an emerging “everything exchange.”

Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani highlighted the delicate market conditions, citing crypto price fluctuations influencing listed crypto-exposed equities. 

However, Bernstein distinguishes the current market environment from past crypto downturns, noting that speculative excess primarily affects what they refer to as “MSTR copycats,” referencing Strategy’s (previously MicroStrategy) stock performance. 

Central to Bernstein’s bullish thesis is Coinbase’s strategic diversification away from volatile spot trading revenue. They assert that exchange is evolving into a comprehensive financial platform.

The analysts emphasize that clearer regulatory guidelines in the US could drive a revaluation of these business lines, bridging the gap with offshore competitors benefiting from faster token listings and fundraising fees. 

Coinbase’s foray into token issuance through a launchpad-style model, exemplified by Monad’s (MON) recent listing, demonstrates growing market interest. Bernstein notes that these launches, directly influencing trading activity, can stimulate a cycle of issuance, listing, and heightened trading volume.

Confident Ratings For COIN

Looking ahead, one of the exchange’s most notable catalysts is the upcoming product showcase on December 17, anticipated to unveil developments in tokenized equities, prediction markets, and other tools expanding the exchange’s offerings beyond spot crypto trading. 

The integration with Deribit is also expected to further bolster Coinbase’s derivatives expansion, positioning the exchange closer to platforms like Robinhood as both entities diversify their product offerings.

On the consumer front, the exchange’s Base app, focusing on wallet services, payments, and social features, acts as a centralized access point for the broader token markets, reaffirming the analysts’ bullish predictions. 

Bernstein’s reaffirmed “Buy” rating on Coinbase with a massive $510 price target underscores the firm’s confidence in COIN’s growth trajectory. Monness Crespi’s recent upgrade from “Neutral” to “Buy” with a $375 target further adds to the bullish sentiment surrounding the stock’s valuation amid falling prices. 

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Many in the crypto space have echoed a familiar sentiment over recent months: “The four-year crypto market cycle is dead.” Experts from the Bull Theory assert that while the four-year cycle may have come to an end, the Bitcoin bull run itself is merely delayed and could stretch until 2027.

Why The Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending

In a recent post on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, the Bull Theory analysts noted that the concept of Bitcoin adhering to a neat four-year cycle is weakening. 

They highlighted that significant price movements over the last decade weren’t solely driven by Halving events; rather, they were influenced by shifts in global liquidity. 

The analysts pointed to the current landscape of stablecoin liquidity, which remains high despite recent downturns, indicating that larger investors are still engaged in the market, poised to invest when appropriate macroeconomic conditions arise.

In the US, Treasury policies are emerging as pivotal catalysts. The recent buybacks are notable, but the analysts emphasize that the larger narrative lies in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which is currently around $940 billion—almost $90 billion above its normal range. 

This surplus cash is likely to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and adding liquidity that typically gravitates toward risk assets.

Globally, the trends appear even more promising. China has been injecting liquidity for several months, while Japan recently announced a stimulus package worth approximately $135 billion, alongside efforts to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. 

Canada is also moving toward easing its monetary policy, and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has officially halted its quantitative tightening (QT) measures—a historical precursor to some form of liquidity expansion.

Political And Monetary Factors Align To Create Bullish Condition

The analysts explained that when major economies adopt expansive monetary policies simultaneously, risk assets like Bitcoin tend to respond more rapidly than traditional stocks or broader markets. 

Additionally, potential policy tools, such as the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption—implemented in 2020 to allow banks more flexibility in expanding their balance sheets—could return, resulting in increased credit creation and overall market liquidity.

There is also a political dimension to consider. President Trump has discussed potential tax reforms, including abolishing income tax and distributing $2,000 tariff dividends. 

Furthermore, the likelihood of a new Federal Reserve chair who supports liquidity assistance and is constructive toward cryptocurrency could bolster conditions for economic growth.

Extended Bitcoin Uptrend

Historically, whenever the Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM PMI) surpasses 55, it has been followed by periods of altcoin season. The probability of this occurring in 2026 appears high, according to the Bull Theory.

The convergence of rising stablecoin liquidity, the Treasury’s injection of cash back into markets, global quantitative easing, the cessation of QT in the US, potential bank-lending relief, pro-market policy shifts in 2026, and major players entering the crypto sector suggests a very different scenario than the old four-year halving model. 

The analysts concluded that if liquidity expands concurrently across the US, Japan, China, Canada, and other significant economies, Bitcoin is unlikely to move counter to that trend.

Therefore, rather than experiencing a sharp rally followed by a prolonged bear market, the current environment indicates a more extended and broader uptrend that could span through 2026 and into 2027.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com